Sunday, February 28, 2016

The 88th Academy Awards: Predictions

Tonight is the big night! The Oscars! I follow the Oscar buzz all year round and thus I find it really fun to find out who the winners are. I meant to get this out earlier, but oh well. Better late than never, right? This year has been especially controversial as it's the second straight year with an all white lineup in the acting nominations. This apparently makes the Oscars racist, despite the fact that a Mexican won best picture and director last year and that same Mexican has a great chance of doing winning both those awards again this year. People are also choosing to ignore the fact that Lupita Nyong'o won best supporting two years ago and is one of many non-white individuals that have carried home statues in the past. Yeah, I think it's a bunch of bull crap. Anywho, with that small rant out of the way, it's time to give you my annual predictions as to who I think will win. And of course, I will also give my picks as to who I want to win. If my predictions are wrong, that's okay. That just makes things more interesting. It's fun being surprised on Oscar night! In case you are wondering, my order here is the order in which the nominations were announced. Let's begin!

Original Song:

Nominations:
-Fifty Shades of Grey - "Earned It" - The Weeknd
-Racing Extinction - "Manta Ray" - J. Ralph & Antony Hegarty
-Youth - "Simple Song #3" - David Lang
-The Hunting Ground - "Til It Happens to You" -  Diane Warren & Lady Gaga
-Spectre - "Writing's On the Wall" - Sam Smith

Will Win:
-Youth - "Simple Song #3" - David Lang

Should Win:
-Racing Extinction - "Manta Ray" - J. Ralph & Antony Hegarty

I don't know why "See You Again" wasn't nominated here. It was nominated in all the other pre-cursors and won most of them. And for good reason, if you ask me. Oh well. You can never predict what the Oscars are going to do in this category. As far as what will win, I'm leaning towards the song from Youth, but Gaga could very well pull it off. Personally I like the Manta Ray song out of this group, but as long as that horrid Bond song doesn't win, I'll be content.

Cinematography:

Nominations:
-Carol - Ed Lachman
-The Hateful Eight - Robert Richardson
-Mad Max: Fury Road - John Seal
-The Revenant - Emmanuel Lubezki
-Sicario - Roger Deakins

Will Win:
-The Revenant - Emmanuel Lubezki

Should Win:
-The Revenant - Emmanuel Lubezki

Love or hate The Revenant (personally I'm on the love side of the argument), you gotta have mad respect for what they pulled off with the cinematography. That had me in awe for the whole movie, especially knowing what lengths they went to in order to make the movie look and feel genuine, like using all natural light in every shot. Apparently all the Oscar people agree with me here, because this is a guaranteed winner. Sorry Roger Deakins. Maybe next time.

Documentary Short Subject:

Nominations:
-Body Team 12 - David Darg & Bryn Mooser
-Chau, Beyond the Lines - Courtney Marsh & Herry Franck
-Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah - Adam Benzine
-A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness - Sharmeen Obaid-Chindy
-Last Day of Freedom - Dee Hibbert-Jones & Nomi Talisman

Will Win:
-Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah - Adam Benzine

Should Win:
- n/a

I'm not going to lie, I haven't watched any of these short films. Nor do I really have any idea which one is going to win. They all sound fascinating, now they just need to make them available to watch for crowds outside New York or Los Angeles so I can check them out. In terms of my prediction, I read a few accounts from people who actually saw them and apparently Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah is our winner, but I feel the Academy is unpredictable when it comes to these.

Documentary Feature:

Nominations:
-Amy - Asif Kapadia & James Gay-Rees
-Cartel Land - Matthew Heineman & Tom Yellin
-The Look of Silence - Joshua Oppenheimer & Signe Byrge Sorensen
-What Happened, Miss Simone? - Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby & Justin Wilkes
-Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom - Evgeny Afineevksy & Den Tolmor

Will Win:
-Amy - Asif Kapadia & James Gay-Rees

Should Win:
-n/a

Well now this is embarrassing. I haven't seen any of these feature-length documentaries, either. I almost saw Amy, but never got around to it. I like documentaries. I just don't usually seek them out in the theaters. But one of these days, I'm going to start watching these award-winning documentaries. I'm serious with that. As far as the winner, yeah Amy is winning. I'm pretty confident with that pick. I don't even need to read what other people think to determine that.

Costume Design:

Nominations:
-Carol - Sandy Powell
-Cinderella - Sandy Powell
-The Danish Girl - Paco Delgado
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Jenny Beavan
-The Revenant - Jacqueline West

Will Win:
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Jenny Beavan

Should Win:
-Cinderella - Sandy Powell

I had my reservations when it came to Cinderella, but when it came to production design and costume design, it was a heck freaking yes. It didn't get nominated for production design, but it got the costume design nomination, so I have to give it a shout-out right here. I hope it wins. But Mad Max is taking home the Oscar here as I'm certain will be the case with a lot of these smaller awards.

Sound Editing:

Nominations:
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Mark Mangini & David White
-The Martian - Oliver Tarney
-The Revenant - Martin Hernandez & Lon Bendeer
-Sicario - Alan Robert Muray
-Star Wars: The Force Awakens - Matthew Wood & David Acord

Will Win:
-The Revenant - Martin Hernandez & Lon Bendeer

Should Win:
-Star Wars: The Force Awakens - Matthew Wood & David Acord

Can we give something to Star Wars? Even if it's just one of these sound awards? I'm not really the best judge at sound editing, but I just want Star Wars to win something and Star Wars does have good sounds in it. Like they don't use real light sabers to make the light saber sounds, if you know what I mean. And BB-8? Exactly right? But I suppose I'll settle with nature sounds winning because I'm pretty sure The Revenant is taking this one home.

Sound Mixing:

Nominations:
-Bridge of Spies - Andy Nelson, Gary Rydston & Drew Kunin
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff & Ben Osmo
-The Martian - Paul Massey, Mark Taylor & Mac Ruth
-The Revenant - Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Randy Thom & Chris Duesterdiek
-Star Wars: The Force Awakens - Andy Nelson, Christopher Scaabosio & Stuart Wilson

Will Win:
-The Revenant - Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Randy Thom & Chris Duesterdiek

Should Win:
-Star Wars: The Force Awakens - Andy Nelson, Christopher Scaabosio & Stuart Wilson

Yeah, did you hear what I just said? I want Star Wars to win something at the Oscars and they do pretty good in the sound department. But yeah, The Revenant I think is winning. Although don't be surprised if these sound awards once again goes to Mad Max.

Makeup & Hairstyling:

Nominations:
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega & Damian Martin
-The 100 Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared - Love Larson & Eva Von Bahr
-The Revenant - Sian Grigg, Duncan Jarman & Robert Pandini

Will Win:
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega & Damian Martin

Should Win:
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega & Damian Martin

Both Mad Max and The Revenant would be well suited for this. I mean, Leo got attacked by a virtual bear and they had to make that look convincing with dang good makeup. Plus, they had to make the whole cast look like 1800's fur trappers. But yeah, Mad Max is taking this award home, too, and when push comes to shove I'll take Mad Max. I mean, they had a whole cast filled with post-apocalyptic wasteland characters. Half the cast was covered with make-up to make that look convincing. Although it would be kinda entertaining if the third movie here with the super long title took this home.

Live Action Short Film:

Nominations:
-Ave Maria - Basil Khalil & Eric Dupont
-Day One - Harry Hughes
-Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut) - Patrick Vollrath
-Shok - Jamie Donoughue
-Stutterer - Benjamin Cleary & Serena Armitage

Will Win:
-Ave Maria - Basil Khalil & Eric Dupont

Should Win:
-n/a

Once again, I haven't seen any of these. They showed them to the Oscar voters and to a very limited audience in New York and Los Angeles. But if these somehow show up online somewhere I'm totally down for watching. I enjoy short films. I'm picking Ave Maria to win. But I feel like any of them could.

Animated Short Film:

Nominations:
-Bear Story - Gabriel Osorio & Pato Escala
-Prologue - Richard Williams & Imogen Sutton
-Sanjay's Super Team - Sanjay Patel & Nicole Gridle
-We Can't Live Without Cosmos - Konstantin Bronzit
-Word of Tomorrow - Don Hertzfeldt

Will Win:
-Sanjay's Super Team - Sanjay Patel & Nicole Gridle

Should Win:
-Sanjay's Super Team - Sanjay Patel & Nicole Gridle

Hey, look! I've seen one of these short films! Sanjay's Super Team showed up in front of Pixar's The Good Dinosaur and it was adorable and touching. In fact, it was better than feature length Pixar movie that followed it. Of course I want it to win! And I feel it will. Animated shorts by Disney and/or Pixar usually own this category at the Oscars. Although I haven't seen the other four, so I guess that's not completely fair for me to give my personal judgment.

Animated Feature Film:

Nominations:
-Anomalisa - Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson & Rosa Tran
-Boy and the World - Ale Abreu
-Inside Out - Pete Docter & Jonas Rivera
-Shaun the Sheep Movie - Mark Murton & Richard Starzak
-When Marnie was There - Hiromasa Yonebayash & Yoshiak Nishimura

Will Win:
-Inside Out - Pete Docter & Jonas Rivera

Should Win:
-Shaun the Sheep Movie - Mark Murton & Richard Starzak

Of course Inside Out is winning this category. I will be in utter shock if it gets upset. And no I'm not complaining because I loved the movie. But if you've been following my reviews this year, you'll know that I've been head over heels for Shaun the Sheep Movie ever since I've seen it. I like how the Oscars keep nominating these stop motion animation movies. It's a shame that no one goes and watches them, so I'm glad the Academy notices them. But one of these days, I do hope they get an actual win. Same thing goes with these Studio Ghibli/GKIDS films. They need a win. And to be honest, I nearly chose When Marnie was There as my favorite over Shaun the Sheep Movie. Go see it if you haven't! So, so, so good!!!!

Actor in a Supporting Role:

Nominations:
-Christian Bale - The Big Short
-Tom Hardy - The Revenant
-Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
-Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
-Sylvester Stallone - Creed

Will Win:
-Sylvester Stallone - Creed

Should Win:
-Sylvester Stallone - Creed

Yeah, this one is easy. Five great performances. Don't get me wrong. But Sylvester Stallone's performance in Creed was honestly one of my favorite, if not my absolute favorite, performance of the whole year. I've loved the Rocky movies my whole life and Stallone totally knocked this out of the park in Creed. I'm glad the rest of the world agrees with me because he's been winning everything this year and thus is almost a guarantee. Glad to see Tom Hardy finally get an Oscar nomination. But his win can wait.

Actress in a Supporting Role:

Nominations:
-Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
-Rooney Mara - Carol
-Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
-Alicia Vickander - The Danish Girl
-Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs

Will Win:
-Alicia Vickander - The Danish Girl

Should Win:
-Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight

I don't get this category. I really don't. Winslet, Vickander, and Mara were definite lead roles. Not supporting roles. You can even argue that for McAdams as well. Jennifer Jason Leigh is the only true supporting role out of the five. I'd vote for Vickander if she got in for Ex Machina instead of The Danish Girl. It almost happened. But it didn't. She's winning and I'm going to be happy for her. But my vote would be for the woman who stole the show in Tarantino's The Hateful Eight. Jennifer Jason Leigh. What a performance. Kate Winslet has upset potential and I'd be fine with that. I loved Steve Jobs and she was great in that!

Visual Effects:

Nominations:
-Ex Machina - Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardinton & Sara Bennett
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver & Andy Williams
-The Martian - Richard Stammers, Andrew Langlands, Chris Lawrence & Steven Warner
-The Revenant - Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith & Cameron Waldbauer
-Star Wars: The Force Awakens - Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan & Chris Corbould

Will Win:
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver & Andy Williams

Should Win:
-Star Wars: The Force Awakens - Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan & Chris Corbould

Okay, if we're not going to give Star Wars the sound awards, can we at least give them the award that was made for blockbusters? And for crying out loud, shouldn't we give praise to J.J. and crew for returning Star Wars to practical effects? Please? Pretty please? I feel Mad Max will take this home as well and I'm not complaining too much at that. Although I do have to make sure to give an honorable mention to The Martian as well. Superb visual effects! And that bear in The Revenant that mauled DiCaprio? All visual effects. That alone almost deserves the Oscar as well.

Film Editing:

Nominations:
-The Big Short - Hank Cowin
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Margaret Sixel
-The Revenant - Stephen Mirrione
-Spotlight - Tom McArdle
-Star Wars: The Force Awakens - Maryann Brandon & Mary Jo Markey

Will Win:
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Margaret Sixel

Should Win:
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Margaret Sixel

Definitely no complaints for me here on this one. Mad Max is in fact my second favorite movie of 2015 because it's the absolute perfect action movie. Not the type of movie that usually wins this many awards, but hey, I'm not complaining. And if you go back and watch all these action sequences, it's the phenomenal editing in the movie that makes it so good. I'm not joking. If I could only pick one award for Mad Max to win, it would be editing. Although these are five great movies here, so I won't be too mad if it gets upset.

Production Design:

Nominations:
-Bridge of Spies - Adam Stockhausen, Rena Deangelo & Bernard Henrich
-The Danish Girl - Eve Stewart & Michael Standish
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Colin Gibson & Lisa Thompson
-The Martian - Arthur Max & Celia Bobak
-The Revenant - Jack Fisk & Hamish Purdy

Will Win:
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Colin Gibson & Lisa Thompson

Should Win:
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Colin Gibson & Lisa Thompson

Another Oscar in the bag for Mad Max and yet another one that I'm not complaining at. Although it would be nice to see Bridge of Spies and The Martian to take something home and this would be the perfect category to do that in, but they did create a post-apocalyptic wasteland with Mad Max, so yeah.

Adapted Screenplay:

Nominations:
-The Big Short - Charles Randolph & Adam McKay
-Brooklyn - Nick Hornby
-Carol - Phyllis Nagy
-The Martian - Drew Goddard
-Room - Emma Donoghue

Will Win:
-The Big Short - Charles Randolph & Adam McKay

Should Win:
-The Big Short - Charles Randolph & Adam McKay

Is it the best adaptation we're voting for here or the best screenplay that was adapted? Does that make any sense? I can't say I've read the original source material for any of these, so if it's the first one than I'm out. But if we go with the latter, then I pick The Big Short. Such a clever, funny, witty screenplay that managed to turn a subject that I knew nothing about into a fascinating movie. And yes, it's definitely going to win this award. It's been winning here in all the pre-cursors. In general, The Big Short has been coming on strong in the last month, so wherever it's nominated in, it has a shot to win or spoil. 

Original Screenplay:

Nominations:
-Bridge of Spies - Matt Charman, Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
-Ex Machina - Alex Garland
-Inside Out - Pete Docter, Meg LePauve, Josh Cooley & Ronnie del Carmen
-Spotlight - Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy
-Straight Outta Compton - Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus

Will Win:
-Spotlight - Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy

Should Win:
-Inside Out - Pete Docter, Meg LePauve, Josh Cooley & Ronnie del Carmen

We're judging screenplays here. That's what I had to remind myself when picking my favorite. Spotlight is the definite winner here, especially since the Academy is going to want to give the movie something and it's been winning all the pre-cursors when it comes to original screenplay. But that Inside Out screenplay. Dang that was good. So clever and sharp from beginning to end. Ex Machina would be my second pick here. But I do love Spotlight, so I won't be upset.

Original Score: 

Nominations:
-Bridge of Spies  - Thomas Newman
-Carol - Carter Burwell
-The Hateful Eight - Ennio Marricone
-Sicario - Johann Johannsson
-Star Wars: The Force Awakens - John Williams

Will Win:
-The Hateful Eight - Ennio Marricone

Should Win:
-The Hateful Eight - Ennio Marricone

I love music and there were a lot of amazing scores last year. All five of these are fantastic. But there is one that definitely stands head and shoulders above the rest. Such an easy pick as there's a dang good reason why The Hateful Eight has been winning everything when it comes to score. From the second this movie began, the score just blew me away and it never let down. The Hateful Eight was very average for Tarantino standards, but the score was great. Tarantino himself is a moron when he's on stage, so let's hope hope Ennio Marricone is actually there to accept this award.

Foreign Language Film:

Nominations:
-Embrace of the Serpent - Colombia
-Mustang - France
-Son of Saul - Hungary
-Theeb - Jordan
-A War - Denmark

Will Win:
-Son of Saul - Hungary

Should Win:
-n/a

I've not seen any of these foreign films. I know. Bad me. But I've heard nothing but praise for both Son of Saul and Mustang and thus it wouldn't surprise me to see either of them winning. But I'm going to lean on the front-runner taking this award home. Son of Saul.

Directing:

Nominations:
-Adam McKay - The Big Short
-George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
-Alejandro G. Inarritu - The Revenant
-Lenny Abrahamson - Room
-Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

Will Win:
-Alejandro G. Inarritu - The Revenant

Should Win:
-Lenny Abrahamson - Room

It's hard to argue against Inarritu with this one considering what he pulled off with The Revenant, which is why he is taking home his second straight best director Oscar. George Miller could play spoiler here if Mad Max wins all the awards that I believe it will. But when I think of this year's directors, I immediately think of the man who took a young boy in Jacob Tremblay and got perhaps the best child performance ever out of him. But not just that. He got everyone to buy into the premise of Room and made it one of the most emotional and engaging movies of the year that really made you think about life in general and what it means. I really enjoyed Room and this was the movie where I gave all the credit to the director.

Actress in a Leading Role:

Nominations:
-Cate Blanchett - Carol
-Brie Larson - Room
-Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
-Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
-Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn

Will Win:
-Brie Larson - Room

Should Win:
-Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn

Sorry, I'm not stoked over this group of ladies. I hated Cate Blanchett's character in Carol. I didn't think J-Law deserved an Oscar for the bland movie Joy. Charlotte Rampling was okay in 45 Years. And the star of Room was by far Jacob Tremblay, not Brie Larson. Brie did good in it, but I wasn't blown away by her performance like many others were. I wanted Tremblay to represent Room. That leaves us to the one and only deserving performance of the bunch of them. My girl Saoirse Ronan, who I've loved for a long time now. She was incredible in Brooklyn. Brie has been winning everything thus far, so she's taking the Oscar home. But I'm hoping for the upset here.

Actor in a Leading Role:

Nominations:
-Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
-Matt Damon - The Martian
-Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
-Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
-Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl

Will Win:
-Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant

Should Win:
-Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant

It's about freaking time! I honestly believe that Leo is one of the best actors in Hollywood right now. He selects his movies very carefully and always completely loses himself in his characters. He's one of the most recognizable and popular actors in the business, but yet every time without fail I see his character he's portraying in the movie and not him. Even if the movie itself isn't great, Leo always gives 150 percent. He should be winning his second or third Oscar right now. Not his first. Oh well. And no, I don't think this is just a lifetime achievement award. Even if he had already won two or three Oscars, I'd still vote for him because what he did in The Revenant was mind-blowing. And yes, he is winning. He's won literally everything so far.

Best Picture:

Nominations:
-The Big Short - Paramount Pictures
-Bridge of Spies - Dreamworks
-Brooklyn - Fox Searchlight Pictures
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Warner Bros.
-The Martian - 20th Century Fox
-The Revenant - 20th Century Fox
-Room - A24 Films
-Spotlight - Open Road

Will Win:
-The Revenant - 20th Century Fox

Should Win:
-Mad Max: Fury Road - Warner Bros.

It's a three movie race right now between The Revenant, The Big Short, and Spotlight. The Revenant is the current favorite and so I'm playing it safe here with my prediction. But Spotlight was the big favorite before The Revenant came on the scene, so don't be surprised if it comes back and wins. But right now I actually think Spotlight is third. If there's going to be an upset for best picture, I think it comes from The Big Short. I'm not ready to call it. But it's close. If you ask me, all eight of these movies are actually really good. I think the Academy did a good job this year in picking the best picture candidates. Yes, Star Wars was my favorite movie of the year last year, but its award was $2 billion at the world wide box office. Better that than a little golden trophy, right? However, with Star Wars not in the mix, my personal choice definitely goes to Mad Max, although Spotlight is pretty close behind.

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