May 5th - 7th-
May 12th - 14th-
The other movie that will be competing with "Snatched" for the runner-up spot at the box office will be a reboot that few people asked for and few people will most likely be interested and that is King Arthur: Legend of the Sword. The number of times the King Arthur legend has been portrayed in film or on TV in some form or another is almost too much to count, which is why there hasn't been a ton of positive buzz for this latest reiteration. The timing of the release is even more curious given that it will be in direct competition with "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2" in terms of target audience. If "Snatched" hits well with audiences, that's less direct competition as audiences for a comic book movie are different than audiences for a raunchy comedy. "King Arthur" will be looking to drag away the same people and they might choose to simply stay home or go see "Guardians" again. One benefit "King Arthur" does have is respected director Guy Ritchie on board. While Ritchie isn't without his slip-ups, he's also directed movies such as "Snatch," "RocknRolla" and the Robert Downey Jr. "Sherlock Holmes" movies. Ritchie has also been called on by Disney to direct their upcoming live-action reboot of "Aladdin," so there are plenty of eyes on him right now.
May 19th - 21st-
Hoping to tap into the family audience early in the summer before families are flooded with options in June is Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul. This is a franchise that is based on the popular kids books of the same name and has actually done fairly well in its own right. "Diary of a Wimpy Kid" made $64 million in 2010 while "Rodrick Rules" and "Dog Days" made $52 million and $49 million in 2011 and 2012. Those numbers don't jump out at you, but the three movies have been fairly consistent thus far. The big question mark here comes with the current interest level. As you may have noticed, the first three were all released within a year of each other, so family audiences had them fresh on their mind with each of the two sequels. But now its been five years since the third movie. That may have been too long of a break between sequels. The kids who went to the theaters for the first three are all five years older. How many of them are interested in going back? If they aren't, will this fourth movie be able to attract a new audience to the theaters? My guess is that "The Long Haul" experiences a steep drop from the third and becomes a franchise killer.
The first romantic drama of the summer will also come our way this weekend with Everything, Everything. While "Snatched" will also be targeting the female audience with it's mother/daughter vacation premise, that's directed more towards the adult female audience looking for a female-driven comedy. "Everything, Everything" is aimed mainly at young adult females or teenagers who haven't really had too many options given to them this year outside perhaps "Beauty and the Beast" and the lesser seen "Before I Fall," both from March. The premise for "Everything, Everything" surrounds a teenage girl who is allergic to sunlight and thus has been trapped indoors by her parents most of her life. When a teenage boy moves in next door, they fall in love and the girl decides that she wants to risk it and go have at least one great day in the sun and outdoors with this boy, doing things that she has never had the opportunity to do. The same audience that turned "Me Before You" into a surprise hit last year ($56.2 million) could very well turn out for this movie as well. Or it could be more like "Paper Towns" the summer before ($32.0 million). A dream come true for the studio would be a turnout like "The Fault in Our Stars" in 2014 ($124.9 million), but I wouldn't count on that.
May 26th - 29th-
Getting a day's head start on the weekend by opening on Thursday the 25th will be the second raunchy comedy of the month that I referenced earlier and that is Baywatch. This might be one of the biggest wildcards of the summer as it may rely solely on reviews as to whether or not that achieves success. On one hand, "Baywatch" is one of the most well-known TV shows ever made as it starred David Hasselhoff, Pamela Anderson and a whole host of others in its lifeguard/beach setting with all sorts of beach-related adventures. It was fun, not just as eye candy for some viewers, but also as an action/adventure/drama series. This new film reboot of "Baywatch" gets the "21 Jump Street" treatment with an R-rated tag and two popular film stars leading the way. This time with Dwayne Johnson, who can almost do no wrong at this point, and Zac Efron, who successfully made the transition to adult comedy with the "Neighbors" franchise. So this could be a huge hit, especially if the reviews are good. On the other hand, there seems to be a lot of people sitting on the fence with this that will not feel bad skipping it if the quality isn't high. It could be this year's "21 Jump Street" or it could be this year's "Neighbors 2." Don't be surprised either way.