The holiday box office has arrived! Presumably to rescue us from what was one of the worst Octobers in a long time. Earning just $428.6 million domestically, this was the lowest grossing October at the domestic box office since October 1998 ($422.2 million), not counting COVID, of course. As low as that was, it wasn’t the low on the year, actually. That belongs to March, which only earned $397.7 million. It’s not been all doom and gloom in 2025, though, as July hit $1.116 billion. People have proven that they’re willing to still show up to theaters if there’s something they’re interested in, but that’s going to be countered with slower months like the one we just had, creating a rollercoaster of a year.
For those that read my October movie preview, you’ll likely remember that last month’s performance wasn’t due to a lack of options. I went on quite the deep dive as there were at least four new wide releases on every weekend except for the final one. Despite this, there just wasn’t a lot of movies that mainstream options were particularly interested in. The biggest opening weekend of the month wound up being Taylor Swift’s album release party at $34.1 million, but that was only in theaters for that weekend. “Tron: Ares” was positioned as the month’s big blockbuster release, but that failed harder than the first two movies. It still won the month in regards to money earned solely in October, finishing at $65.7 million, with “Black Phone 2” in second place with $55.9 million. But when both movies are officially finished with their theatrical runs, “Black Phone 2” will wind up as the overall winner at the domestic box office. “Black Phone 2” was a success based on its budget, and had a bigger opening than the first movie, but if your month’s biggest movie was a low-budget horror film that will finish with less than $100 million, that’s when you know things weren’t the best.
On a personal note, I think people have plenty to catch up on, as there were plenty of good movies that did come out in October that the majority of audiences skipped. But these monthly movie previews aren’t meant as personal reviews or recommendations. I’m just sharing what’s on the calendar and analyzing box office results. And from that vantage point, box office results say that most people didn’t care about what October provided them. But they will care in November, I can guarantee you that. We have what’s poised as the movie event of the year. And you all know exactly what I’m talking about. We’ll get to that in this post, as well as everything before and after, so let’s dive in!
As always, release date information for the post is courtesy of the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com. The movies listed are the ones currently scheduled for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are always subject to change.
November 7 – 9
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| 20th Century Studios' "Predator: Badlands" |
The opening weekend of November that most recently concluded started with five new movies opening in at least 1,000 theaters. Opening at No. 1 was Predator: Badlands at just over $40 million, which already gives it a higher opening than anything from October. This is a franchise that began in 1987 and has a premise that’s simple enough. The first movie followed a special-operations rescue team sent on a mysterious mission in a Central American jungle under murky and mysterious circumstances. The rescue mission quickly turns into a fight for survival as they encounter “the Predator,” a skilled and technologically advanced extraterrestrial that hunts the worthy for sport. Future installments have expanded across centuries, worlds, and cultures as we follow humanity’s battles with this alien species. “Predator: Badlands,” specifically, takes the battle to a hostile alien world, with Elle Fanning and Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi in the lead roles. It’s the seventh solo “Predator” film and ninth overall if you count the two “Alien vs. Predator” movies.
Taking away those last two and looking just at the solo “Predator” films, they’ve had a more spotty track record theatrically as compared to their cousin “Alien” franchise. The most recent two prior to “Badlands” didn’t even get released in theaters. Thus when we look at the previous four theatrically released “Predator” movies, and adjust for ticket price inflation – given that the franchise has now spanned five decades – the average adjusted opening weekend is $31.6 million domestically. The average adjusted domestic total is $96.7 million. Compare that to the “Alien” franchise, which has comparable averages of $42.4 million for the opening weekends and $172.5 million for the domestic total. Unadjusted, the recent two “Predator” movies, “Predators” in 2010 and “The Predator” in 2018, both opened to just under $25 million and finished with just over $50 million. Those would’ve been the comparable prediction for “Badlands,” a $25-30 million opening. Instead it followed closer to “Alien: Romulus,” the most recent “Alien” movie from 2024, which opened to $42.0 million. Thus, adjusted or not, “Badlands” has now become the highest opening weekend for a solo “Predator” movie. Given it’s 85 percent Rotten Tomatoes score from critics and 95 percent audience score, along with the holiday release, it’s quite feasible that this finishes near the $105.3 million that “Romulus” ended with.
While “Predator: Badlands” was the main event this past weekend, as I mentioned earlier there were five total movies that opened in over 1,000 theaters. The other four all opened below $5 million, so we’ll go through them quicker. The winner among those four was Sarah’s Oil from Amazon MGM, which is not what I would’ve predicted. It had the higher theater count at 2,410 theaters, as well as an A+ CinemaScore from audiences, so in hindsight that makes sense. The movie tells the story of Sarah Rector, an African American girl born in Oklahoma Indian Territory in the early 1900s who believes there is oil beneath the barren land she’s allotted. Historical spoiler alert – there was. Martin Scorsese also covered an element of this with his recent movie “Killers of the Flower Moon.” But instead of a dark and depressing tale, “Sarah’s Oil” tells the positive, uplifting story of a young girl whose faith and fortune was proven right. The movie was written, directed, and produced by Cyrus Nowresteh and was based on the 2014 book “Searching for Sarah Rector: The Richest Black Girl in America,” by Tonya Bolden. The official opening was $4.3 million in fourth place, so not huge, but movies that get an A+ CinemaScore often have a habit of sticking around.
Just below “Sarah’s Oil” in fifth place with $3.9 million was the war film Nuremberg. This is a movie that stars Russell Crowe, Rami Malek, Leo Woodall, John Slattery, Mark O’Brien, Richard E. Grant, and Michael Shannon – that being the order of the cast on the poster – and is about… Nuremberg. Specifically, though, this follows the Nuremberg trials, just after the conclusion of World War II, where the Allied Forces are trying to figure out the best course of action following the defeat of Nazi Germany. The focus of the narrative follows Rami Malek as Douglas Kelley, an American psychiatrist who is tasked with determining whether Nazis prisoners are fit to stand trial for their war crimes. The movie had a good enough critics score at 69 percent, and a high 95 percent audience score, it just didn’t garner much interest from the general public. Under better circumstances, this would be the type of movie that is very awards friendly, and it had the proper release strategy to make its case. It just likely needed a better reaction.
The final two wide releases could slip into the even slightly more ignored category. Opening in eighth place with just $2.6 million was the psychological drama Die My Love, from Scottish filmmaker Lynne Ramsey. This is a movie starring Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson as Jackson and Grace, a happily married couple who movie into a remote house in Montana, left to them by Jackson’s uncle who has recently passed away. However, happy and playful quickly goes away as a lonely Grace begins to develop postpartum depression after the birth of their first child, with Jackson becoming less and less present in their relationship. This depression gets worse and worse as the movie goes on. And it leads to a place where mainstream audiences weren’t quite ready for. Despite positive reaction from festivals, the movie earned a D+ CinemaScore. Perhaps the disconnect comes from a lack of knowledge of the director. This is Ramsey’s fifth feature film, and her previous work includes the likes of “We Need to Talk About Kevin” and “You Were Never Really Here,” so she doesn’t exactly make movies with rainbows and butterflies, if you know what I mean. Despite the $2.6 million opening, the story here is a little different as this is now her highest grossing film. And not only is this her first movie to open in wide release, but it’s also the only movie of hers to hit wide release in any weekend. The previous high was 233 theaters. Given the low opening and poor audience reaction, perhaps this is a movie that actually should’ve started in a fewer number of theaters and expanded wide rather than opening wide right off the bat.
If you think that’s bad, though, the boxing movie Christy was our final wide release. Despite opening in 2,011 theaters, it earned just $1.3 million, unable to even crack the top 10, opening in 11th place. This was actually one of the top 10 worst openings ever for a movie that opened in at least 2,000 theaters. The movie follows Sydney Sweeney as Christy Martin, who was one of the best-known and most successful female boxers in the 1990s. The narrative of the movie spans from 1989 to 2010, showcasing a bit of her career along the way, but focusing mostly on her abusive marriage with her husband James Martin, who was 25 years her senior and her trainer when they were married. A marriage that Christy called a marriage of convenience, especially considering she was aware that she was a lesbian from a young age. Christy not only had to deal with an abusive husband, but also homophobic parents. Sydney Sweeney has received a lot of strong praise for her acting performance, which has even sparked awards buzz for her. Although the movie being dead on arrival at the box office might make that a bit more of an uphill climb as her name alone wasn’t able to sell this.
On the more limited front real quick, the animated film Grand Prix of Europe was an even worse case scenario than the others mentioned. It opened in 950 theaters, but could only manage $370,490. Fathom Events did release Karen Kingsbury’s The Christmas Ring in 1,415 theaters, a romance film about a military widow who falls in love with searching for her lost family heirloom. But this movie didn’t fare a whole lot better than “Grand Prix of Europe,” opening to $676,073. Coming awfully close to these two movies, despite opening in just 4 theaters, was Sentimental Value, which grabbed $200,031 from those 4 theaters, for one of the higher per theater averages of the year. The movie is from director Joachim Trier, who also saw critical acclaim from his recent film “The Worst Person in the World,” which got 2 Oscar nominations. “Sentimental Value” is predicted by many to get a whole lot more than that, and perhaps compete for best picture. So look for this to build off this opening and expand in future weeks.
November 14 – 16
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| Lionsgate's "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" |
The second weekend of November should include a close battle for the top spot. “Predator: Badlands” will certainly be in play. If it follows “Alien: Romulus,” a second weekend total around $16 million should be the result. Hoping to rekindle the magic and win the weekend, though, will be Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, which is the third movie in the “Now You See Me” franchise. The first movie was released in 2013 and was a bit of a magic trick of it’s own. The themes presented were that magic is a sleight of hand and a misdirection. As such, the movie presented itself as a group of magicians performing a series of tricks, but at it’s core actually followed Mark Ruffalo’s character, who was seeking for revenge after an early betrayal in his life. The movie got mixed reaction from critics, but a much stronger one from the audience, which saw its $29.4 million opening translate into a domestic total of $117.7 million. Three years later, the whole gang was back… but to lesser results overall. Not disliked, but perhaps a more muted reaction. It’s $22.4 million opening led to a domestic total of $65.1 million. Now we have the third movie and the question we have here is… is it six years too late? It’s been nine years since the second and 12 years since the first, so it seems like a movie that should’ve opened in 2019, not 2025. Will that matter, though? Or will people enjoy a reunion. Again, the whole gang is back, with a whole lot of extras. The other question will be… what tricks do they have up their sleeve this time? The expected opening is somewhere in the realm of the first two – about $25-30 million.
Competing with “Now You See Me” and “Predator: Badlands” for positioning in the top three will be the latest Edgar Wright movie, The Running Man. Edgar Wright is a director known for the Cornetto Trilogy (“Shaun of the Dead,” “Hot Fuzz,” “The World’s End”), as well as the likes of “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World” and “Baby Driver.” With his latest film, he’s taking on Stephen King, who wrote “The Running Man” novel in 1982 under his pseudonym Richard Bachman. The story of the novel is set in a dystopian future where the nation’s economy is in ruins and world violence is on the rise. The main protagonist, Ben Richards, is participating in a reality TV show called “The Running Man” where contestants win money by avoiding a team of hitmen sent to kill them. If this premise and movie sounds familiar, it’s because it was adapted into a 1987 movie starring Arnold Schwarzenegger. Oddly enough, “Predator” was also a 1987 Schwarzenegger movie. A fun coincidence that we have a “Predator” sequel and a second adaptation of “The Running Man” in the same month… neither of which features Schwarzenegger. But yes, this new movie is not a remake of the 1987 film, but rather a second adaptation of the novel, one which is supposedly a lot more true to the source material. The highest opening for an Edgar Wright Film is “Baby Driver” with $20.6 million, which “The Running Man” is expected to get close to, although his 2021 movie “Last Night in Soho” only opened to $4.1 million, so there’s no guarantee.
The third and final wide release opening this weekend will be the latest horror movie from Osgood Perkins, Keeper. Perkins got his name on the map with the highly acclaimed serial killer horror film “Longlegs” in 2024. He had done a few smaller films prior to that, as well as the 2020 movie “Gretel & Hansel,” but “Longlegs” is what really got people’s attention. Not only did it have strong reviews, but it opened to $22.4 million and held well, finishing with $74.3 million. He quickly followed that up with “The Monkey,” a much different horror movie, but also a well liked one, that opened to $14.0 million in February of this year. It didn’t hold quite as well, but $39.7 million domestically is a solid outing for a low-budget horror film. And those who stayed for the whole credits of that movie got an early teaser trailer for “Keeper” at the end. So Perkins is coming fast and furious with his horror films. This one, while still in the same horror genre, also looks quite different. It’s more of a folk horror. A romantic anniversary trip to a secluded cabin turns not so happy when a dark presence reveals itself. The movie was actually shot in its entirety in 2023 while “The Monkey” was being held up due to the actors and writers strikes that year. Perkins found Canadian actors and writers to work on this film who were not part of those organizations in order to pull this off. Hence two movies in one year. Although current prognosis on this one is an opening in the single digit millions, so likely not as high of awareness as his previous two.
November 21 – 23
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| Universal's "Wicked: For Good" |
The movie event of the year arrives in theaters on the weekend prior to Thanksgiving and that, of course, is Wicked: For Good. An adaptation of the extremely popular Broadway musical has been in the pipeline for quite some time. And that makes sense given that “Wicked” is the second highest grossing Broadway musical of all-time, behind only “The Lion King,” and is third in terms of number of performances, behind “The Phantom of the Opera” and “The Lion King.” When the movie adaptation finally went into production with director Jon M. Chu on board, Chu looked at the 2 hours 25 minute length of the Broadway musical and made the decision that there was no way they could do this justice in one film. I had a little bit of skepticism last year that audiences would realize this is a Part 1 and Part 2 sort of thing, since it certainly wasn’t advertised that way, but I certainly underestimated the “Wicked” crowd. They knew. And it didn’t bother them. In fact, an excellent decision as, for many “Wicked” fans, the movie adaptation was better than they dreamed it would be. That led to a box office performance that opened to $112.5 million on this exact weekend last year and was a dominate force throughout the entire holiday season – Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years. In fact, it’s theatrical run extended all the way until March, finishing with $473.2 million domestically and $755.2 million worldwide. It also was nominated for 10 Oscars, winning two of them – production design and costume design.
What happens when a very well liked movie that has positive reactions through the stratosphere has a Part 2 grand finale just 12 months later? Yep. Those tend to do very well. Current projections for its opening weekend alone are in the realm of $145-175 million for Box Office Pro’s long range forecast. And I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it hits the higher end of that range. Audiences are going to show up. And they’re going to show up in droves. The one question I have is this… will it end up as the highest grossing movie of the year at the domestic box office? Worldwide box office is a no because “Ne Zha 2” earned over $2 billion earlier this year, most of that coming in China. It won’t get that high worldwide. But the current high on the year domestically is “A Minecraft Movie,” which made $423.9 million. The first “Wicked” beat that by $50 million and I have confidence that “Wicked: For Good” will outgross its predecessor. But the one movie in its way? December’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash.” Domestically in 2009, “Avatar” finished with $760.5 million. It had a few re-releases to bump it up to $785.2 million. The sequel in 2022, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” finished with $688.8 million domestically. Both movies finished well above $2 billion worldwide. So we don’t underestimate the power of an Avatar movie. There doesn’t seem to be as much hype for “Fire and Ash,” but people said the same for “The Way of Water,” and look what happened there. Regardless, this could be an interesting race between “Wicked: For Good” and “Fire and Ash” domestically. Whoever wins, it’s going to lead to a healthy conclusion to the 2025 box office, which is very needed.
While “Wicked: For Good” will definitely be the main course at the box office this weekend, there are two smaller movies that hope to pick up some of the scraps at the table. The first of those two is Rental Family, which might make for a nice feel good drama around Thanksgiving. A rental family service, which is a real thing in Japan that began in the 1990s, is a service that provides clients with actors who portray family members, friends, or coworkers for social events such as weddings, or to provide platonic companionship. In the movie, Brendan Fraser plays a lonely American actor living in Japan who starts working for a Japanese rental family service, which leads him to make actual connections along the way. The movie had its world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival and has built a decent amount of positive buzz since then, as it has a strong 96 percent on Rotten Tomatoes with 48 reviews counted. “Wicked: For Good” and “Rental Family” have a shot at combining for $180 million at the box office this weekend… with “Wicked: For Good” getting $175 million of that, which gives you the scope of what we’re looking at here.
The second smaller movie of the weekend adds a touch of action into the weekend’s meal with the release of SISU: Road to Revenge. As one of the many action films to feed off of the success of “John Wick,” “SISU” was a 2023 Finnish action film about an old man named Aatami Korpi towards the end of World War II who finds gold. In his attempt to bring it back to civilization, he runs into a Nazi platoon who thinks he’s just an old drifter and tries to rob him of his gold, but he takes down the entire platoon all on his own. Don’t mess with this dude. In its American box office release, the movie opened to $3.3 million from 1,006 theaters and finished its run with $7.3 million domestically and $11.1 million worldwide. Now in the sequel, Aatami Korpi, coined as “the man who refuses to die,” returns in 1946 to Soviet-occupied Karelia, where his family was murdered during World War II. His objective is to dismantle his old family house and rebuild it somewhere safe. But of course he runs into the Red Army, specifically the man who killed his family is determined to finish the job. So we have a natural progression in this franchise from fighting Nazis to fighting Soviets. The movie had its premiere at Fantastic Fest in September, and also released in its home country of Finland in October. So far it has received very strong reaction, currently matching the 94 percent Rotten Tomatoes score of the first with a 95 percent score of its own. Both “Rental Family” and “SISU: Road to Revenge” are projected to open in the $4-6 million range.
November 26 – 30
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| Disney's "Zootopia 2" |
While “Wicked: For Good” will continue to dominate throughout the week of Thanksgiving, Disney will be throwing another behemoth into the mix with the release of Zootopia 2 on the Wednesday right before Thanksgiving, a situation that mirrors last Thanksgiving almost exactly. After earning $112.5 million the weekend before Thanksgiving, “Wicked” fell just 28 percent to earn $81.2 million in its second weekend, collecting a total of $263.2 million by the end of 10 days in release. Meanwhile, Disney released “Moana 2” during the week of Thanksgiving, which earned $139.8 million over the 3-day weekend and $225.4 million over the full 5-day weekend. The two movies went onto battle it out at the box office throughout the entire holiday season, a battle that was ultimately won by “Wicked” domestically, with “Moana 2” finishing with $460.4 million compared to the $473.2 million that “Wicked” earned. “Moana 2” was much bigger internationally, which helped it finish with over $1 billion worldwide. And now we get a Part 2 a year later with Universal and Disney battling it out again, a “Wicked” movie facing off against a big Disney sequel.
In regards to “Zootopia,” it currently remains the fifth highest grossing movie for Walt Disney Animation Studios at the domestic box office, with $341.3 million. That total is the third highest grossing non-sequel behind just “The Lion King” and “Frozen.” At the top of the list is two sequels, “Frozen 2” and “Moana 2.” It’s also one of four movies from the studio to cross $1 billion worldwide, and the only other non-sequel to do so outside “Frozen.” Despite many re-releases, 1994’s “The Lion King” has not quite hit that mark just yet, currently standing at $988.4 million worldwide. These numbers, of course, are not adjusted for ticket price inflation. Doing so there becomes really tricky with Disney due to how many times they put their classics back into theaters prior to VHS and DVD eventually becoming a thing. Point being, “Zootopia” is a force to be reckoned with as one of Disney’s best performing movies at the box office. So we’re well overdue for a return to the city. In doing so, Judy Hopps and Nick Wilde are sent on a mission that has them coming face-to-face with a mysterious viper named Gary De’Snake, whose arrival threatens to disrupt the balance of the metropolis. Current long range projections for “Zootopia” from Box Office Pro have it opening in the range of $100-120 million for the 3-day and coming close to $200 million over the 5-day. So not quite as big as “Moana 2” last year, but not too far behind, either.
Like with “Wicked: For Good” the previous weekend, this Thanksgiving weekend also comes with a few smaller movies hoping to earn a little bit of something. As many are swarming theaters seeing “Wicked: For Good” and “Zootopia 2,” some coming back to the theaters for the first time in a long time, or perhaps even the first time this year, they’ll at least see the posters of these other smaller movies and that might grab their attention or have it at least enter the back of their minds for later. Anyways, the most notable smaller film this time around is Eternity from A24. This stars Elizabeth Olsen, Miles Teller, and Callum Turner in a fantasy romantic comedy. The setting is the afterlife. Each person who dies gets assigned an afterlife coordinator and they have one week to decide where to spend eternity and who to spend it with. The conundrum here presented is that Joan, played by Elizabeth Olsen, has to now decide whether to spend her afterlife with Luke (Callum Turner), her first husband who died in war, or Larry (Miles Teller), her second husband who she spend the rest of her life with. The movie premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival this year and had decently positive reaction, currently holding an 84 percent on Rotten Tomatoes through 37 reviews.
Electing not to debut on Wednesday the 26th, but rather a traditional Friday opening on the 28th will be another former festival player, The Thing with Feathers. This movie had its premiere towards the beginning of the year at the Sundance Film Festival. Benedict Cumberbatch plays a grieving father who just lost his wife and now has to raise his two kids, when he’s visited by… the thing with feathers. A bird. That’s a thing that has feathers. This bird, though, is a giant crow monster that comes to both torment and soothe him as we spiral downwards into this psychological drama. The movie is being released by Briarcliff Entertainment, who just released “Stitch Head” on Halloween to just over $2 million. They also released “My Dead Friend Zoe” earlier this year in 780 theaters, earning $740,088 in its first weekend. The challenge this movie has is that it got mixed reviews at Sundance. Usually the festival crowds have a habit of overpraising many things as they get caught up the festival buzz, so a muted festival release doesn’t exactly bode well for reception amongst general audiences, but the presence of Benedict Cumberbatch might attract a few people to give it a shot.
A few limited release movies to look out for. The current predicted front runner to win best picture on Gold Derby is Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet. It’s a movie about William Shakespeare and his wife having to deal with the death of one of their children, and how that inspired the play “Hamlet.” It’s primarily told from the vantage point of his wife, played by Jessie Buckley, who seems to be the strong front runner to win best actress. The movie will debut in a few theaters this weekend and expand throughout December. Neon will also be giving an Oscar qualifying run to The Secret Agent, which is Brazil’s entry at the Oscars for best international film. It received very strong reaction at Cannes Film Festival back in May. It follows a former teacher caught up in the political turmoil of the final years of the Brazilian dictatorship. And finally, who knows what Netflix’s theatrical plan for Wake Up Dead Man is. This is the third movie in the “Knives Out” franchise. Daniel Craig returns as Benoit Blanc, with a new mystery to solve and another long list of actors joining the party this time around. Netflix released “Glass Onion” in about 600 theaters for about a week during Thanksgiving 2022. So perhaps that’s the plan here again, but Netflix doesn’t exactly announce their plans. It’ll be in at least some theaters on November 26 prior to its Netflix release on December 12.










