The Oscars are tonight, so it’s definitely time for my annual Oscar post. I was going to get this out earlier in the week, but I got busy, then spent all of Saturday watching the shorts and typing this post. It took longer than I thought. So it’s here on day of the Oscars instead of day before. Oh well. The purpose of this post is twofold. One, I predict who is going to win each award. Two, I give you might thoughts on who I think deserves to win. This is simply just for fun. If I’m right, I’m right. If I’m wrong, then it’s OK. You can look at this and see what I was expecting. If my score ends up being horrible, that just means it was an eventful, surprising evening. And that can be exciting, depending, of course, on what the surprises were. And yes, we’re going through all 23 categories, even the ones that some, including the Oscars themselves, don’t seem to care about. I make that note because the Oscars are deciding this year not to present every award live, which is really frustrating to all of us who enjoy watching the Oscars. But it is what it is. Anyways, wish me luck on my picks, and, most importantly, I hope this post will inspire you to check out some of these movies!
Documentary (Short Subject):
Nominations:
- “Audible” - Matt Ogens and Geoff
McLean
- “Lead Me Home” - Pedros Kos and Jon
Shenk
- “The Queen of Basketball” - Ben
Proudfoot
- “Three Songs for Benzair” -
Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei
- “When We Were Bullies” - Jay
Rosenblatt
Will Win
- “Lead Me Home” - Pedros Kos and Jon Shenk
Should Win:
- “The Queen of Basketball” - Ben Proudfoot
And we start with the shorts. These are actually some of my favorite categories. And the ones I’m pretty sure no one else in my circle watches, despite me always trying to convince people to check them out. So if you want to be a part of the cool club, hunt these down and give them a watch. It won’t take too much of your time. “Audible, “Lead Me Home,” and “Three Songs for Benzair” are all on Netflix. “The Queen of Basketball” is on the New York Times’ YouTube channel as one of their Op-Docs. “When We Were Bullies” is coming to HBO Max… on March 30. So it’s the one that I haven’t yet seen.
Now predicting which one is going to win is
literally a shot in the dark. For some reason, I’m thinking one of the three
Netflix documentaries has the best chance. And my gut tells me that “Lead Me
Home,” which is about the homeless situation in Los Angeles, might connect most
with voters? For me personally, “The Queen of Basketball” makes the best use of
its time and is a delightful interview and story with the only woman drafted
into the NBA. She didn’t join the team, but it’s still really cool that she was
drafted. And I had no idea of her story prior to this. The others are great
subjects, but could’ve been longer. “Audible” tries to stuff too much into 30
minutes, while “Lead Me Home” and “Three Songs for Benzair” didn’t seem to have
enough content to put together a compelling narrative. More work and more
footage could’ve helped them, in my opinion
Short Film (Animated):
Nominations:
- “Affairs of the Art” - Joanna Quinn
and Les Mills
- “Bestia” - Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz
- “Boxballet” - Anton Dyakov
- “Robin Robin” - Dan Ojari and Mikey
Please
- “The Windshield Wiper” - Alberto
Mielgo and Leo Sanchez
Will Win:
- “Robin Robin” - Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
Should Win:
- “Robin Robin” - Dan Ojari and Mikey Pleas
This one’s gotta be “Robin Robin,” right? This is an Aardman short on Netflix. And Aardman is a studio that just doesn’t miss when it comes to quality animation, this cute 30-minute short about a robin raised by mice is one you’ve gotta watch, regardless of what actually wins this. Normally this is a category where Pixar and Disney do really well. But they didn’t get nominated this year, which is strange because I thought “Us Again,” which played in front of “Raya,” and “Far From the Tree,” which played in front of “Encanto,” were both really good. “Us Again” even made the short list, but missed the final five. “Bestia” and “Boxballet” have not been made available to watch, so I can’t speak on those, but “Affairs of the Art” and “The Windshield Wiper” are both on YouTube and are really bonkers. And I’m not so sure I mean that in a good way this time around. So yeah, “Robin Robin” is easily the best of the three that I’ve seen. And also one that just feels like will take home this Oscar.
Short Film (Live Action):
Nominations:
- “Ala Kachuu - Take and Run” - Maria
Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger
- “The Dress” - Tadeusz Łysiak and
Maciej Śleskicki
- “The Long Goodbye” - Aneil Karia
and Riz Ahmed
- “On My Mind” - Martin
Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson
- “Please Hold” - K.D. Dávila and
Levin Menekse
Will Win:
- “The Long Goodbye” - Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
Should Win:
- “Please Hold” - K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse
Man, do they ever nominate happy films in this category? I’ll have to look back on my posts from previous years, but I feel like I’m always surprised by how dark and dreary these live action shorts are. And outside “Ala Kachuu,” they’re all available to be watched. “Please Hold” and “The Dress” are on HBO Max, while “The Long Goodbye” and “On My Mind” are on YouTube. Again, anything could win in this category, but this kinda does feel like the tea leaves are favoring “The Long Goodbye.” This is Riz Ahmed. He was deserving of a win in last year’s Oscars for “Sound of Metal,” he just happened to go up against Anthony Hopkins and Chadwick Boseman, so this could be the Academy’s chance to give him an Oscar, as he stars in and is a producer of this short. Plus this is a very politically charged short, which is the exact thing that won this last year. It’s not bad, but it’s definitely heavy on the shock value for me. “The Dress” and “On My Mind” are both very nice films, but are a tad bit depressing. “Please Hold” isn’t exactly a happy film either, but it reminded me of a “Black Mirror” episode, so I gravitated towards it the most. “Ala Kachuu” looked very good and very intense based on the trailer I watched, but again it’s not available to be watched at the moment.
International Feature Film:
Nominations:
- “Drive My Car” - Japan
- “Flee” - Denmark
- “The Hand of God” - Italy
- “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” - Bhutan
- “The Worst Person in the World” - Norway
Will Win:
- “Drive My Car” - Japan
Should Win:
- “Drive My Car” - Japan
This might be the easiest prediction of the night. If someone had a gun at your head and said you have to get a prediction right or else the trigger will be pulled, this is the one you tell them. “Drive My Car” got a best picture, a best director, and a best adapted screenplay nomination. It’s not losing this category. “The Worst Person in the World” would be the shocking upset because it also got a screenplay nod, but it’s not going to happen. Although I wouldn’t be upset if it did. “The Worst Person in the World” is a really good film. I was very surprised by it. But “Drive My Car” is the best of the category. And surprisingly, almost all of them are available to be watched. “Drive My Car” is on HBO Max. “Flee” is on Hulu. “The Hand of God” is on Netflix. “The Worst Person in the World” is in theaters. “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” is the only one that’s not available, although that title makes me very curious to watch it. Of note, “Flee” is triple nominated in animated feature, international film, and documentary, so that gives it points, but if they decide to reward it, it won’t be in this category.
Documentary (Feature):
Nominations:
- “Ascension” - Jessica Kingdon, Kira
Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
- “Attica” - Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry
- “Flee” - Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica
Hellström, Singe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
- “Summer of Soul (…or, When the
Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” - Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson,
Joseph Patel, Rovert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
- “Writing With Fire” - Rintu Thomas and Sushmit
Ghosh
Will Win:
- “Summer of Soul (…or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” - Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson, Joseph Patel, Rovert Fyvolent and David Dinerstei
Should Win:
- “Flee” - Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Singe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
Speaking of “Flee,” if it wins something, this is where it would get the win. As said in the previous section, it’s a triple nominee. It’s a foreign language documentary where much of the footage is animated. It’s the story of a refugee fleeing the Taliban’s Afghanistan. They did animated footage of his experiences while he tells his story, so it’s a very unique documentary and a very powerful one at that. I would give it the win if it were up to. “Summer of Soul” is really good, too. It’s a documentary about the 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival. Although if I’m being picky, it’s more of a feat of editing. They found a bunch of never seen footage of this festival and edited it together into a documentary. So on that technicality, I’d give the win to “Flee,” but I do think “Summer of Soul” has more momentum right now. While I’m at it, “Attica” is a really interesting documentary about a prison riot. It’s on Amazon Prime. “Writing With Fire” debuts on PBS.org… on Monday. So I’ll give it a watch and update you later on what I thought. And “Ascension” is on Paramount+, which I do not have. I really love this category every year. Documentaries are always fun for me to watch!
Music (Original Song):
Nominations
- “Be Alive” - Beyoncé (From “King Richard”;
Music and Lyrics by DIXON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter)
-
“Dos Orguitas” - Sebastián Yatra (From “Encanto”; Music and Lyrics by
Lin-Manuel Miranda)
- “Down to Joy” - Van Morrison (From
“Belfast”; Music
and Lyrics by Van Morrison)
- “No Time to Die” - Billie Eilish (From “No
Time to Die”; Music and Lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)
- “Somehow You Do” - Reba McEntire (From “Four
Good Days”; Music
and Lyrics by Diane Warren)
Will Win:
- “No Time to Die” - Billie Eilish (From “No Time to Die”; Music and Lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)
Should Win:
- “No Time to Die” - Billie Eilish (From “No Time to Die”; Music and Lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)
When “No Time to Die” the song dropped in February 2020, I was like, “Wow, Billie. Well done.” When I heard it on context of the movie nearly two years later (delayed due to COVID, of course), I was like, “DAAAAANG girl!” Because this song is absolute fire. And not only that, when I look at this category, I like to pick a song that has the most impact on the film itself. Preferably something that weaves its way through the narrative. Most of these songs are good, but are end credit songs. “Dos Orguitas” is the other that comes at a key moment of the film that I would consider. But not only does “No Time to Die” perfectly introduce the Bond movie of the same name, but the themes of the song are constantly woven into the film. As are the song’s lyrical themes. So it’s a runaway favorite on my end. I even watched that silly “Four Good Days” film that no one’s heard of just for the song, which wound up as an end credits thing. One of these days they should give Diane Warren a win. But they should stop with the courtesy nominations for her and only nominate her if she actually has a solid chance to win from a film that is a major player. And if “Dos Orguitas” were to win here, Lin-Manuel Miranda would complete his EGOT (Emmy/Grammy/Oscar/Tony), but for now he waits. Billie has been winning everything in the precursors, steamrolling her way to Oscar, which she and Finneas will put right next to their giant Grammy collection. That’s half of an EGOT for them. I think Miranda would actually win if Disney had submitted “We Don’t Talk About Bruno,” but they didn’t, so a Bond song is going to win for the third straight time.
Music (Original Score):
Nominations:
- “Don’t Look Up” - Nicholas Britell
- “Dune” - Hans Zimmer
- “Encanto” - Germaine Franco
- “Parallel Mothers” - Alberto Iglesias
- “The Power of the Dog” - Jonny Greenwood
Will Win:
- “Dune” - Hans Zimmer
Should Win:
- “Dune” - Hans Zimmer
This is the first really hard choice. Not in
terms of what I want to win. That “Dune” score by Hans Zimmer is fire. One of
his best, which says a lot because he’s written a lot of iconic scores.
Surprisingly his only other win came from “The Lion King,” which is not what I
would’ve guessed, but I think he’s due for his second Oscar. The challenge I’m
having right now is that Jonny Greenwood score from “The Power of the Dog.” If
this night goes very good for “The Power of the Dog,” I think this is a
category where Greenwood could steal the Oscar from Zimmer. By the way, it’s
also a really good score. Very heavy on the horns, which I appreciate since
that’s the instrument I played in high school. The “Don’t Look Up” score is
also surprisingly good on a re-listen. Very bombastic and loud, which reflects
the tone of the movie. “Encanto” and “Parallel Mothers” scores are solid, too,
but feel like more traditional film scores rather than something that pop out.
But do you know what? I’m going to say Hans Zimmer takes this. When in doubt,
predict “Dune” in the technical categories and you’ll probably be right. But
I’m definitely not confident in that pick.
Visual Effects:
Nominations:
- “Dune” - Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian
Connor and Gerd Nefzer
- “Free Guy” - Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos
Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
- “No Time to Die” - Charlie Noble, Joel Green,
Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
- “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”
- Christopher
Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
- “Spider-Man: No Way Home” - Kelly Port, Chris Waegner,
Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick
Will Win:
- “Dune” - Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Should Win:
- “Dune” - Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Easy. “Dune” wins this one walking away. And
it’s very deserved. I’m one of those weird ones who have the complaint that
“Dune” is only half of a movie. And I feel like the threw me right into the
fire with some very heavy lore that I drowned in. I didn’t know what was going
on for 90 percent of the movie. But one thing that was not in question was that
it was a visual masterpiece. An absolutely stunning work of art. And yeah, I’m
very well aware that my opinions of the movie itself could change once we see
the sequels, but we’ll have to wait and see officially what happens there. But
nevertheless, it’ll be a very deserving winner over our other Blockbuster
courtesy nominations. Which, by the way, I am one of those people who think
“Spider-Man: No Way Home” deserved 5-10 nominations, including a best picture.
Not because it NEEDS it for the recognition, but because we should be
nominating the year’s best films, regardless of genre or box office. The fact
that Marvel can only get visual effects nominations unless they’re making
something culturally relevant like “Black Panther” is very insulting. Their
best films deserve to dominate at the Oscars. Fight me on that.
Sound:
Nominations:
- “Belfast” - Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James
Mather and Niv Adiri
- “Dune” - Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo
Green, Dough Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
- “No time to Die” - Simon Hayes, Oliver
Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
- “The Power of the Dog” - Richard Flynn, Robert
Mackenzie and Tara Webb
- “West Side Story” - Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom,
Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy
Will Win:
- “Dune” - Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Dough Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
Should Win:
- “Dune” - Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Dough Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
Yeah, I’m defaulting to “Dune” here again. And I’m also kinda glad they combined the sound categories. It makes it less confusing. What I will say here is that “A Quiet Place: Part II” should’ve been in here, with at least a nomination. I know the Oscars are allergic to both horror films and sequels, but there was still no better use of sound in a film in 2021 than “A Quiet Place: Part II.” It was just as effective as the first movie on that front.
Makeup and Hairstyling:
Nominations:
- “Coming 2 America” - Mike Marino, Stacey Morris
and Carla Farmer
- “Cruella” - Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and
Julia Vernon
- “Dune” - Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva
von Bah
- “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” - Linda Dowds, Stephanie
Ingram and Justin Raleigh
- “House of Gucci” - Göran Lundström, Anna
Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras
Will Win:
- “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” - Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
Should Win:
- “Cruella” - Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
By the looks of things, it appears that
they’re pairing this category right along with the best actress race. And yeah,
half of Jessica Chastain’s performance in that movie was the incredible makeup
work they did. More on that later, though. While I will admit that the makeup
work in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” was really good, despite not much of anything
else in that movie being worth anything, I still prefer the work in “Cruella.”
Sure, costume design is the real strength of “Cruella,” but there was still a
lot of excellent makeup and hairstyling going on the movie, especially in
regards to Emma Stone’s look. I mean, transforming Emma into Cruella was more
than just the dresses. But I’ll have to be content with one win for “Cruella.”
Just as long as we keep the Oscar far away from “House of Gucci” I’ll be happy.
Film
Editing:
Nominations:
- “Don’t Look Up” - Hank Corwin
- “Dune” - Joe Walker
- “King Richard” - Pamela Martin
- “The Power of the Dog” - Peter Sciberras
- “tick, tick… BOOM!” - Myron Kerstein and Andrew
Weisblum
Will Win:
- “King Richard” - Pamela Martin
Should Win:
- “tick, tick… BOOM!” - Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
Another really tough category. Yeah, as I
said, it’s easy to default to “Dune” for the technical categories, but I do
feel editing often goes to a best picture nominee. So as you can see, it’s not
“Dune” vs. “The Power of the Dog” I’m fighting between here. It’s “Power of the
Dog” vs. “King Richard” and possibly “tick, tick… BOOM!” At the ACE Eddie
Awards (American Cinema Editors), “King Richard” won drama and “tick, tick… BOOM!”
won comedy. That makes me think of 2020 when “Ford v. Ferrari” took this one
home. You know, the sports sequences. And the Tennis matches in this movie were
genuinely incredible and well edited. I almost went with that in my personal
picks, but the editing in “tick, tick… BOOM!” was what made the movie. I
usually don’t immediately recognize the editing in a movie, but in that one I
did, with how they interwove all of the layers of that film into one masterwork
of filmmaking. When I saw its nomination, I thought that meant it was also
getting picture, but sadly “Nightmare Alley” took its place instead, which made
me grumpy. But all is well. Again, if “The Power of the Dog” is having a great
night, it might walk away with this one, which is why I’m torn.
Costume
Design:
Nominations:
- “Cruella” - Jenny Beavean
- “Cyrano” - Massimo Cantini Parrini and
Jacqueline Durran
- “Dune” - Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
- “Nightmare Alley” - Luis Sequiera
- “West Side Story” - Paul Tazewell
Will Win:
- “Cruella” - Jenny Beavean
Should Win:
- “Cruella” - Jenny Beavean
You know, we could just say that “Cruella” is
winning this award and is 100 percent deserving and move onto the next
category. And while it is true that it’s the best of the bunch, as I look over
these nominees, this is a great category. In my re-watch of “West Side Story”
this week, the costume design really won me over. I haven’t seen “Cyrano” yet,
but that’s a cool nomination, too, just looking at the trailers. And even
though I don’t like “Nightmare Alley,” both the set design and the costume work
to deliver an old-fashioned carnival theme were great. And the costume work in
“Dune” is perhaps a bit overlooked, too. Sometimes we take for granted all the
work that goes in on many levels in making those blockbusters work. It’s a lot
more than just visual effects. I think Marvel and DC should be in this category
more than they are.
Cinematography
Nominations:
- “Dune” - Greig Fraser
- “Nightmare Alley” - Dan Laustsen
- “The Power of the Dog” - Ari Wegner
- “The Tragedy of Macbeth” - Dbruno Delbeonnel
- “West Side Story” - Janusz Kaminski
Will Win:
- “Dune” - Greig Fraser
Should Win:
- “Dune” - Greig Fraser
Another easy win for “Dune,” I think. Again, a
visual and technical masterpiece. Although, again, this is a really solid
category. If I had all the time in the world, it would be fun to go back and
watch all of these movies focusing specifically on the cinematography. And I
feel I would be blown away five times over. “The Power of the Dog” could play
spoiler. And if it does, it’s the first female winner in this category, which
would be awesome. I almost want it to win because of that, but if I’m being
purely objective, I want to judge by the final product, not by who is the one
doing the work. And Greig Fraser’s work is truly mindblowing. And I think he’s
going to be back here next year, too, as he also did some absolutely incredible
work on “The Batman,” which I certainly hope gets showered with nominations
next year.
Production
Design:
Nominations:
- “Dune” - Production Design: Patrice
Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
- “Nightmare Alley” - Production Design: Tamara
Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
- “The Power of the Dog” - Production Design: Grant
Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
- “The Tragedy of Macbeth” - Production Design: Stefan
Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
- “West Side Story” - Production Design: Adam
Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo
Will Win:
- “Dune” - Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
Should Win:
- “West Side Story” - Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo
Another win for “Dune.” And another
well-deserved win for “Dune.” However, I stumped myself when I sat down to
think of this. This is another great category. I was close to giving my award
to “Nightmare Alley” for the carnival work or “The Power of the Dog” for the
western transformation. Then I thought about the great work in “Dune” as well.
However, I recently watched both version of “West Side Story” this week and I
was absolutely blown away by how Spielberg took the classic movie and vastly
improved upon it. I mean, the old movie felt very restricted and limited with
its budget. It almost felt like a filmed play. However, Spielberg took the
scenery and the settings and made that the star of the show. Just about every
musical number was vastly improved in the new movie because of the production
design, set decoration, dance choreography, and costume work. Even the cinematography
was great. I wouldn’t mind at all if it stole some of these technical awards
away from “Dune.” I don’t think that’s happening. But I wouldn’t be upset is
all I’m saying.
Animated Feature Film:
Nominations:
- “Encanto” - Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett
Merino and Clark Spencer (Walt Disney Animation Studios)
- “Flee” - Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica
Hellström, Singe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
- “Luca” - Enrco Carosa and Andrea Warren
(Pixar Animation Studios)
- “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” - Mike Rianda, Phil Lord,
Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht (Sony Pictures Animation)
- “Raya and the Last Dragon” - Don Hall, Carlos López
Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho (Walt Disney Animation Studios)
Will Win:
- “Encanto” - Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer (Walt Disney Animation Studios)
Should Win:
- “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” - Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht (Sony Pictures Animation)
I’ve actually been hearing rumblings in the
last few weeks that we could be in for an upset in this category. “Encanto” at
first seems like it was going to run away with this award, especially when the
“Encanto” hype was through the roof back in late December and January. But “Encanto”
buzz has died down a bit and “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” seems to be
gaining traction, especially as Mike Rianda has been doing some real work in
pushing this film, all that during the time when the Oscar voting was opened.
I’m not going to be brave enough to call the upset, but I’ll be pushing for it.
I really enjoyed “Encanto,” but “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” was one my
favorite movies overall last year, animated or not. In fact, I had it in my top
five. To heck with best animated feature, I think this deserves a best picture
nomination, even if there were only five nominees. It’s that good. On par with
“Spider-Verse,” a fellow Sony Pictures Animation movie. If you haven’t seen
this movie yet, watch it ASAP.
Writing
(Adapted Screenplay):
Nominations:
- “CODA” - Siân Heder
- “Drive My Car” - Ryusuke Hamaguchi and
Takmesa Oe
- “Dune” - Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and
Eric Roth
- “The Lost Daughter” - Maggie Gyllenhaal
- “The Power of the Dog” - Jane Campion
Will Win:
- “CODA” - Siân Heder
Should Win:
- “The Power of the Dog” – Jane Campion
I love “CODA.” It’s my favorite of the best
picture nominees and my No. 2 film of 2021. But I will admit that it’s not the
screenplay that makes it work. It’s kinda a traditional coming of age movie. I
think it’s the emotion and the execution of the screenplay that makes it shine.
Not what’s on the page that the actors were reading. That said, I do think that
the momentum has started to shift in its way and I think it could pull off wins
in every category it’s in. Or they could go “Drive My Car” or “The Lost
Daughter.” Sometimes they do that with the screenplay category, give it to a
movie that’s not winning best picture just to give it something. Or it could go
to “The Power of the Dog” if that movie is having a great night. As you can
say, in this category that’s what I’ve leaned on, although I got really stumped
with this category. Ultimately I think the screenplay in “The Power of the Dog”
is one of the movie’s strengths. The plot of that movie is genius, especially
with how it’s a movie within a movie that you don’t notice until you’ve
finished the movie and need to re-watch. That’s some powerful writing and
directing on the part of Jane Campion that makes that work. And I think she
deserves both awards.
Writing (Original Screenplay):
Nominations:
- “Belfast” - Kenneth Branagh
- “Don’t Look Up” - Adam McKay and David
Sirota
- “King Richard” - Zach Baylin
- “Licorice Pizza” - Paul Thomas Anderson
- “The Worst Person in the World” - Eskil Vogt and Joachim
Trier
Will Win:
- “Belfast” - Kenneth Branagh
Should Win:
- “The Worst Person in the World” - Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
With “CODA” and “The Power of the Dog” in the
OTHER writing category, I think that opens the door for “Belfast” to take this
award. And I think it’s a much easier prediction here. I think the Academy
likes Kenneth Branagh and they want to reward his film. And this is where
they’re going to do it. For my pick, this is quite easily “The Worst Person in
the World.” That’s another movie where the plot is what’s genius. With how it
started, I thought I knew where it was going, then it threw me for a loop and
punched me in the gut with some genius writing work with that screenplay.
Easily better than the others. I don’t think “Belfast” or “King Richard” have
remarkable screenplays even though the movies are fun. “Don’t Look Up” is a
hilarious romp, but doesn’t deserve Oscars. And “Licorice Pizza” is a bit of a
train wreck in many areas, stemming from a lot of the writing, not just with
the awkward age gap, but also with those racist scenes. PTA wrote those
sequences into his screenplay. I know he deserves an Oscar at some point, but
not for this.
Actress
in a Supporting Role:
Nominations:
- Jessie Buckley - “The Lost Daughter”
- Ariana DeBose - “West Side Story”
- Judi Dench - “Belfast”
- Kirsten Dunst - “The Power of the Dog”
- Aunjanue Ellis - “King Richard”
Will Win:
- Ariana DeBose - “West Side Story”
Should Win:
- Aunjanue Ellis - “King Richard”
Three of the four acting categories are
actually pretty cut and dry. We could see some surprises on Oscar night, but I
don’t think we’ll see those surprises in the acting realm, with best actress
being the exception. But we’ll get that. As far as supporting actress, it’s set
in stone. And it was decided months ago, I think. Ariana DeBose is winning an
Oscar for the same role that Rita Morena won it for 50 years ago. And Ariana
might even have a better performance under her belt than Morena, which is some
high praise from me. And thus might surprise you to see me not pick her. I
know, it’s tough. But Aunjanue Ellis is the heart and soul of “King Richard.”
It’s her that carries the movie. Not Will Smith. I have no problem giving Will
an Oscar. He did a great job at portraying the rather arrogant and dominate
personality of Richard Williams, but Aunjanue as his wife Brandy is the only
character that could knock some sense into him and in several sequences I had
my jaw on the floor after her scenes. And hearing from Venus and Serena
themselves in interviews and awards speeches say how perfectly she portrayed
their mother really put it over the edge for me. Will’s Oscar is a lifetime
achievement. Aunjanue gives the best performance of the movie.
Actor
in a Supporting Role:
Nominations:
- Ciarán Hinds - “Belfast”
- Troy Kotsur - “CODA”
- Jesse Plemons - “The Power of the Dog”
- J.K. Simmons - “Being the Ricardos”
- Kodi Smit-McPhee - “The Power of the Dog”
Will Win:
Should Win:
- Troy Kotsur - “CODA”
It has made me very happy in the last month or
so that Troy Kotsur has become the runaway favorite in this category. It
started as Ciarán
Hinds as the predicted favorite, then shifted towards Kodi
Smit-McPhee around nomination time. But then Troy Kotsur started winning
things. And then he started winning literally everything. Sure, Hinds and
Smit-McPhee aren’t necessarily out of it, but I think Smit-McPhee and Plemons
might be splitting the vote among the fans of “The Power of the Dog” and
“Belfast” has seemingly fallen out of favor in the awards race. If it was
winning best picture, Hinds would follow it. But this is Troy Kotsur’s to lose
and I’m incredibly happy. I do think Hinds would be an excellent win. The best
part of “Belfast” for me. But Simmons has already won an Oscar. Plemons and
Smit-McPhee have long careers ahead of them. But with Troy Kotsur, him as a
deaf actor playing in a movie about a deaf family and their hearing daughter is
a once in a lifetime opportunity when it comes to awards. I don’t know how many
other roles perfectly fitted towards him that he’s going to get in movies about
deaf people that are getting heavily praised. Add that to the fact that he’s
the best part of the movie and the fact that I believe he’s the best of the
five and this would be the no-brainer pick for me even if he wasn’t the heavy
favorite.
Actress in a Leading Role:
Nominations:
- Jessica Chastain - “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
- Olivia Colman - “The Lost Daughter”
- Penélope Cruz - “Parallel Mothers”
- Nicole Kidman - “Being the Ricardos”
- Kristen Stewart - “Spencer”
Will Win:
- Jessica Chastain - “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Should Win:
- Kristen Stewart - “Spencer”
And this is the most bonkers award of the season. Oftentimes you look at the precursors to see what’s going to happen. And in the case of the other categories, the precursors are what’s making me feel confident in my predictions. But in this case, the precursors have been all over the place. No one is in any real agreement as to who is deserving of a win. There was even some heavy misses. The BAFTAs, for example, had no nominees in common with the Oscars. When those nominations came out, people thought Gaga was the new front-runner, but she didn’t even get a nomination from the Oscars. Then if we back up, Kristen Stewart initially seemed like the favorite. Until she started missing and barely got in. Nicole Kidman became the front-runner. Then it was Gaga for a second, like mentioned. Then people thought maybe Olivia Colman might be getting her second Oscar win. I’ve even heard people think that Penélope Cruz could be a spoiler, even though she wasn’t nominated in anything else. Recently it seems like Jessica Chastain has risen above the rest, winning at SAG and Critic Choice. So that’s what I’m going with, but really any of the five could win and I wouldn’t be surprised.
That said, with who I want to win, I actually
think Jodie Comer from “The Last Duel” gave the best lead actress performance
of the year. But for some reason that movie got no love at awards season,
despite having great reviews and being released at the proper time. Now I
wouldn’t be upset at a Chastain win. She’s also one of my favorite actresses
and is far overdue for an Oscar. But yeah, with these nominees it’s not even
close. I am 1,000 percent on the Kristen Stewart train. Her performance as
Princess Diana was perfect in every way. And this should be her third or fourth
Oscar nomination, not just her first. So I’ve been pushing her for years and am
glad to see her finally getting it. If she wins, that will be the award that I
would be happiest about, but all of these ladies are deserving, so I’m not
going to be mad.
Actor
in a Leading Role:
Nominations:
- Javier Bardem - “Being the Ricardos”
- Benedict Cumberbatch - “The Power of the
Dog”
- Andrew Garfield - “tick, tick… BOOM!”
- Will Smith - “King Richard”
- Denzel Washington - “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Will Win:
- Will Smith - “King Richard”
Should Win:
- Andrew Garfield - “tick, tick… BOOM!”
This category is a lot less complex, so only
one paragraph. Every year there’s at least one actor or actress that everyone
seems to unanimously decide to coronate. And there’s been absolutely no
disagreements when it comes to this award. Will Smith was the favorite at the
beginning of the season. And he got nominated everywhere. And has won every
award. At least when it comes to the major precursors that mean anything. And
I’m totally fine with it. Will Smith is one of the world’s best and favorite
actors. And has been since the 90s. He deserves his trophy. And he gave a solid
enough performance for me to not be mad. And all his speeches have been
excellent, which I think has strengthened his case. But as I said earlier, Aunjanue
Ellis was my favorite part of that movie. My choice for this category is also
not nominated. I think Nicolas Cage from “Pig” gave the best lead acting
performance. But as he’s not on here, I’m on team Garfield. For this
performance alone he deserves it. “tick, tick… BOOM!” was in my top 10 of 2021
and it was because of Garfield. That and the whole Spider-Man thing makes him
deserving. He deserves an Oscar for that campaign alone. The way he
convincingly lied to everyone was great, despite being constantly pestered
about being in the movie.
Directing:
Nominations:
- Kenneth Branagh - “Belfast”
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi - “Drive My Car”
- Paul Thomas Anderson - “Licorice Pizza”
- Jane Campion - “The Power of the Dog”
- Steven Spielberg - “West Side Story”
Will Win:
- Jane Campion - “The Power of the Dog”
Should Win:
- Jane Campion - “The Power of the Dog”
The movie that’s winning best picture has been
a heavy debate. The movie that is winning best director is not. This used to be
a category that would go to the best picture winner every year, but recently
that’s split fairly often. Given that CODA isn’t in here, Jane Campion is
running away with this, with Kenneth Branagh a very distant second place. The
only knock on her is that she said something really stupid when she accepted
her Critics Choice award and that was right before the Oscar voting started, or
possibly during. But I don’t think that will hurt her enough that she loses
when there really isn’t much competition. Maybe if Siân Heder, we could
debate. But she’s not. And I do think Campion is deserving here. As I said in
the screenplay section, the way that “The Power of the Dog” was a movie within
a movie made for a very complex film that worked because of some great writing
and even better directing. She had to fool people on the first watch, then blow
their minds on a second watch. And she had to direct everything and everyone
perfectly in order to make it work in the way that it did.
Best Picture:
Nominations:
- “Belfast” - Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh,
Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers (Focus Features)
- “CODA” - Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice
Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers (Apple TV+)
- “Don’t Look Up” - Adam McKay and Kevin
Messick, Producers (Netflix)
- “Drive My Car” - Teruhisa Yamamoto,
Producer (Bitter End)
- “Dune” - Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and
Cale Boyter, Producers (Warner Bros.)
- “King Richard” - Tim White, Trevor White
and Will Smith, Producers (Warner Bros.)
- “Licorice Pizza” - Sara Murphy, Adam Somner
and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers (United Artists)
- “Nightmare Alley” - Guillermo del Toro, J.
Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers (Searchlight Pictures)
- “The Power of the Dog” - Jane Campion, Tanya
Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers
(Netflix)
- “West Side Story” - Steven Spielberg and
Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers (20th Century Studios)
Will Win:
- “CODA” - Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers (Apple TV+
Should Win:
- “CODA” - Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers (Apple TV+)
Very daring of me to predict my favorite of the nominees to win best picture. I’m setting myself up for failure. And I almost predicted “The Power of the Dog” just because of that. But do you know what? Screw you, curse. My favorite movie has never won best picture in the time of me following the Oscars. And that curse continues because I declared “The Father” as my favorite movie of 2021. But as “The Father” was eligible for last year’s ceremony, despite being a 2021 release, it obviously wasn’t here, so the curse doesn’t apply. Or it already continued with both “Promising Young Woman” and “The Father” both losing to “Nomadland” last year. My No. 2 film of the year HAS won a few times before, with “12 Years a Slave,” “Birdman,” and “Spotlight” as examples. So CODA being my No. 2 film is positive thing, right?
That ridiculousness aside, this is really a tough choice. I started typing this post with the idea that I would be predicting “The Power of the Dog,” simply because it got 12 nominees and has been the front-runner for most of the season. But “CODA” now has the momentum and is actually kinda the front-runner right now. It’s had several big wins in the last few weeks that has put it ahead. And one of the things that trips me up every year is the ranked choice voting that the Oscars do for best picture. Without spending too long on that, it’s not the movie that people love the most that wins. It’s the movie that’s hated the least. You have to get 50 percent of the votes. And if that doesn’t happen, they eliminate the last place vote getter and give those votes to whatever was next on those ballots. So the initial vote of most No. 1s isn’t as important as what movie has the most number of 2s and 3s on people’s ballots. CODA is a lot less of a divisive film than “The Power of the Dog.” And in a moment in time where the world around us is crazy, people might want to have a feel-good drama win best picture rather than a darker revenge thriller.
If “The Power of the Dog” wins, that means it probably won on the first round or two of voting. The further we get into the ensuing rounds, the better the chance that “CODA” has. We’ll never know how that turned out, but you can guess what happened after we hear the result. Also, if “The Power of the Dog” wins best picture, I also think it’s taking home a lot of the other categories. I can’t see it winning just picture and director. And when I went through each category, my gut said to go somewhere else with my pick. And so we get to best picture and I felt I had to go “CODA.” If “CODA” loses, then I’m fine with that. Ever since it became front-runner, there’s been a heavy wave of hate that has hit it, which is ridiculous. So maybe it’s not good for it to win best picture? Anyways, we’ll see here really soon.
