It’s the unstoppable force going head to head against the immovable object in this weekend’s 98th Academy Awards! Before 2025 even began, awards prognosticators looked at the fact that Paul Thomas Anderson had a movie coming out towards the end of the year and wondered if this is finally the time that he gets his Oscar. The well-loved director got his first nomination way back in 1998 with “Boogie Nights.” Despite that and other highly acclaimed films such as “Magnolia,” “Punch-Drunk Love,” “There Will Be Blood,” and “The Master,” Anderson has not yet been awarded a gold trophy, despite now 14 nominations (3 of those from this season). When “One Battle After Another” came out to rave reviews, many considered it a done deal. Like Christopher Nolan and Sean Baker in the two years prior, it just seemed like destiny that Paul Thomas Anderson was finally getting coronated.
But then there was “Sinners.” A massive hit from earlier in the year that continued to build momentum as the year went on. An absolute sensation on many different fronts that felt like the actual movie of the year from mainstream audiences. But was it an awards player? A vampire horror musical in years past would most certainly be completely ignored by the Academy. But this is not the old Academy. It’s a new Academy that has recently allowed movies like “Parasite” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” to come in, dominate, and ultimately win best picture. Neither of those would’ve come anywhere close to voters’ ballots in years past, either. But “Sinners” has won over everyone, even Academy voters. And it’s done so to the tune of 16 Oscar nominations, a new all-time record.
Is Paul Thomas Anderson going to ultimately prevail or will his moment in the spotlight get spoiled by the vampire onslaught? And can anyone else sneak in a few wins in the midst of this clash of titans? In this post, I will do my best to make sense of it all. If I’m right, awesome! If I’m wrong, that means the night ended up being more unpredictable, which is often more interesting. And yes, I go through all 24 categories in this post, listing my prediction for each one, while also giving my personal pick if I had a ballot. So let’s dive in!
Documentary Short Film
Nominations
- “All the Empty Rooms” – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
- “Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” – Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
- “Children No More: Were and are Gone” – Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
- “The Devil is Busy” – Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Ganbhir
- “Perfectly a Strangeness” – Alison McAlpine
Will Win
- “All the Empty Rooms” – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Should Win
- “All the Empty Rooms” – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
And we start with the shorts. Even the best Oscar prognosticators with every chart and statistic in the world will admit that it’s almost impossible to get these all right. But if you have an Oscar pool with your friends, the person who did the best on the shorts will typically win. My very unscientific approach here is to look at IMDb scores and vote totals, as well as Letterboxd, to see if there’s any that stand out. Obviously there’s not exactly major crossover between audience reaction and Academy votes, but it’s sometimes worked in the past. Doing that points to the Netflix one on the list, “All the Empty Rooms.” And, yes, I watched that one, along with “Armed Only with a Camera” and “The Devil is Busy” (those two being on HBO Max). The second you start watching it, you feel like it’s the runaway winner. It’s about a reporter who is paying tribute to kids who got killed in school shootings and it’ll make you bawl your eyes out.
Animated Short Film
Nominations
- “Butterfly” – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
- “Forevergreen” – Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
- “The Girl Who Cried Pears” – Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
- “Retirement Plan” – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
- “The Three Sisters” – Konstantin Bronzit
Will Win
- “Retirement Plan” – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
Should Win
- n/a
I meant to watch these ones. I promised myself that I’d get back to them. I just simply ran out of time. But the top four are all on YouTube if any of you want to give them a watch. My previously stated method of trying to figure these shorts out did not help much. It eliminated “The Three Sisters” because that one was significantly below the others. But the other four were almost identical in all three categories I looked at. “Forevergreen” was slightly below the other three, but not by enough for me to rule it out. I think “Butterfly” is the betting favorite, but I went with “Retirement Plan” simply because Domhnall Gleeson is the voice actor in the short. And sometimes they go for a recognizable name if that exists. So if I’m throwing a dart at the wall, that’s the direction I decided to go.
Live Action Short Film
Nominations
- “Butcher’s Stain” – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
- “A Friend of Dorothy” – Lee Knight and James Dean
- “Jane Austen’s Period Drama” – Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
- “The Singers” – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
- “Two People Exchanging Saliva” – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Will Win
- “Two People Exchanging Saliva” – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Should Win
- n/a
Again, I didn’t get around to these before publishing this. I plan on doing so because I enjoy watching these shorts. If you want to check them out, too, the only one not available from my searching is “Butcher’s Stain.” You can find “The Singers” on Netflix and the other three on YouTube. Not that it matters for voters, because they have access to all of them, but sometimes the Netflix pick can be the easy vote. It’s definitely been watched by more people, from what I can tell. And Netflix has the means to campaign, which can help influence voters. So I was tempted to go with “The Singers” because of that. I went with “Two People Exchanging Saliva” because it had the highest score on Letterboxd, while on IMDb they were all the same. Except for “Butcher’s Stain.” That one is last place in regard to these votes, meaning I would be surprised to see its name called. Any of the other four would not surprise. “Two People Exchanging Saliva” is also a memorable title, so maybe that helps people remember it?
International Feature Film
Nominations
- “The Secret Agent” – Brazil
- “It Was Just an Accident” – France
- “Sentimental Value” – Norway
- “Sirāt” – Spain
- “The Voice of Hind Rajab” – Tunisia
Will Win
- “Sentimental Value” – Norway
Should Win
- “Sentimental Value” – Norway
This has been one of the strongest years for the International films category. Normally these evade me, but I’ve actually seen the top three. “Sirāt” is still in theaters, but not in enough for me to have seen it just yet. Perhaps soon. The last one, I have no idea when I’ll have the opportunity. But in regards to the prediction here, “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent” are both best picture nominees, while “It Was Just an Accident” got into original screenplay, so all three of those have very strong support. People from Brazil have been very loud and vocal in supporting their films lately, so I’m certainly not going to count out “The Secret Agent,” but “Sentimental Value” feels like the safest of the two because it has nine total nominations compared to the four for “The Secret Agent.” And historically there’s not been a ton of surprises in this category, so I’ll play it safe with my prediction. For my personal vote, “The Secret Agent” and “It Was Just an Accident” didn’t fully land with me like I was hoping, but “Sentimental Value” is a very charming film with a ton of great acting performances, so it easily wins my vote.
Documentary Feature Film
Nominations
- “The Alabama Solution” – Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
- “Come See Me in the Good Light” – Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen
- “Cutting Through Rocks” – Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
- “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” – David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber and Alžběta Karásková
- “The Perfect Neighbor” – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee
Will Win
- “The Perfect Neighbor” – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee
Should Win
- “The Perfect Neighbor” – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee
I always love going through the documentaries come Oscar season. So when nominations came out, I was eager to get going and get them all watched. And thus I became very annoyed that three of them weren’t available to me. All five of these came out at Sundance in January 2025, so they had a whole year to find a home and get distribution. But oh well. “The Perfect Neighbor” and “The Alabama Solution” are the two that I have watched. “The Perfect Neighbor” I watched right away when it came to Netflix in October. It’s the exact type of crime documentary from Netflix that I’m a sucker for. It’s very effective in making you mad at this grumpy, soulless old lady. It’s also a very well put together documentary. It’d likely get my vote even if I had seen the others. It also has over five times the number of votes on IMDb than the others, so clearly awareness for this one is through the roof in comparison to the others. That and the Netflix campaign power makes it a hard one to bet against, but if there’s a spoiler, “The Alabama Solution” is about the prison injustices in Alabama, so a relevant subject matter could stick with voters.
Music (Original Song)
Nominations
- “Dear Me” – Kesha (From “Diane Warren: Relentless”; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
- “Golden” – HUNTER/X: EJAE, AUDRA NUNA & REI AMI (From “KPop Demon Hunters”; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park)
- “I Lied to You” – Miles Caton (From “Sinners”; Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson)
- “Sweet Dreams of Joy” – Nicholas Pike (From “Viva Verdi!”; Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike)
- “Train Dreams” – Nick Cave (From “Train Dreams”; Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave)
Will Win
- “Golden” – HUNTER/X: EJAE, AUDRA NUNA & REI AMI (From “KPop Demon Hunters; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park)
Should Win
- “I Lied to You” – Miles Caton (From “Sinners”; Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson)
Death, taxes, and Diane Warren getting a nomination in the best song category. One of these days they’re actually going to give her a win. But with “Sinners” and “KPop Demon Hunters” present, this year is not that year. Honestly if they’re not going to give her a win, they should just stop giving her a nomination. She also needs to write a song for a best picture nominee or one that gets super popular on the radio or Billboard charts. That’s how she’s going to get it. Anyways, this is one of the easiest to predict on the night. “KPop Demon Hunters” and “Golden” have been steamrolling through everything and it’s going to lead to an easy win. If “Sinners” pulls the upset, that’s a sign that it’s poised to straight up pull a “Return of the King” and just win everything. But that’s not quite how I see this night going. As far as my personal pick, I thought about making a snarky remark towards “KPop Demon Hunters,” but “Golden” is a song I actually enjoy, so I’m not mad, even though I think it’s used at a weird spot in the actual movie. Speaking of which, the moment where “I Lied to You” plays in “Sinners” is the best scene in my favorite movie from this last year, so that’s an easy pick for me. And if it pulls the crazy upset, I would be absolutely elated.
Music (Original Score)
Nominations
- “Bugonia” – Jerskin Fendrix
- “Frankenstein” – Alexandre Desplat
- “Hamnet” – Max Richter
- “One Battle After Another” – Jonny Greenwood
- “Sinners” – Ludwig Goransson
Will Win
- “Sinners” – Ludwig Goransson
Should Win
- “Hamnet” – Max Richter
This is a category where I enjoy doing a personal deep dive. I’ve spent the last few days re-listening to all the scores as I drive and walk around. Looking at my personal pick first, I always try to look out for scores that are unique and creative rather than just your traditional movie score. But ultimately for me it came down to which score elicited the strongest emotional response. “Hamnet” is a movie that made me sob and the music does a lot of the heavy lifting in helping you feel what the movie wants you to feel when the worst tragedy happens. Listening to the score again got me to feel all of those same emotions again, so I think it does the most effective job out of the group. But all five of these are very pleasant scores to listen to. The tricky part of the conversation is that the climax of the movie includes a piece of music that was not original to “Hamnet.” So do I not vote for it because of that? The Oscars deemed the score eligible and they can be very picky, so I’m fine with it, too. Also, the rest of the score that is original is pretty effective. So it’s not just one piece doing all the heavy lifting. “Sinners” feels like it’s going to win this. And of course I’m not upset. Music is a very central core theme to the whole movie, so it makes a ton of sense. For me, the soundtrack in “Sinners,” which is absolutely fire, does more heavy lifting than the score itself. I don’t know if others made that distinction in this category, but I did personally.
Visual Effects
Nominations
- “Avatar: Fire and Ash” – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
- “F1” – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
- “Jurassic World Rebirth” – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
- “The Lost Bus” – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
- “Sinners” – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean
Will Win
- “Avatar: Fire and Ash” – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
Should Win
- “Sinners” – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean
Both previous Avatar movies won this category, so there’s no reason to believe that it’ll be different on the third time around. For “Avatar: The Way of Water” just three years ago, that was the solo win it got. There’s also a lack of other obvious choices as an alternative, so I don’t really know what the spoiler would be. For my personal vote, I confess to being a bit petty. I don’t want to vote for “Avatar.” I didn’t see it and don’t really plan to. I’m also not voting for a Jurassic World movie. I did see that one and it was not good. Why “Superman” didn’t show up here, or one of the two Marvel movies, is a bit mystifying, but I guess I default to “Sinners.” The other two don’t scream visual effects, either. There are plenty of important visual effects needed to make a horror film work, so I feel somewhat justified, but I’m also ready to move onto the next category. This one is weird this year.
Sound
Nominations
- “F1” – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
- “Frankenstein” – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
- “One Battle After Another” – José Antonio García, Cristopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
- “Sinners” – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
- “Sirāt” – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas
Will Win
- “F1” – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
Should Win
- “F1” – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
Once upon a time this was split into two categories, sound editing and sound mixing. They made it easy for all of us by combining it into one category – Best Sound. They also made it easy for us by nominating a racing movie. Sound design is important in every film. The movies where you don’t think about sound design deserve more credit. But “F1” definitely is one that stands out quite a bit and I feel that’s where the voters will lean, too. Personally I had issues with “F1” when it came to the story and characters, and thus I roll my eyes a bit at it getting a best picture nomination. But story and characters have nothing to do with sound design. That part of the movie was absolutely thrilling!
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominations
- “Frankenstein” – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
- “Kokuho” – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
- “Sinners” – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
- “The Smashing Machine” – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern
- “The Ugly Stepsister” – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Will Win
- “Frankenstein” – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
Should Win
- “The Ugly Stepsister” – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
It’s a battle of “Sinners” vs. “One Battle After Another,” as I’ve already discussed in this post and will continue to do so. But this is the part of the night where “Frankenstein” steps in and takes a few trophies. Also very deserving. “Frankenstein” was another movie that made it into my top five on the year and the craft behind it is quite excellent. But I’m going with the unconventional pick here with my personal choice because I absolutely love that “The Ugly Stepsister” showed up here. It’s a very gross body horror version of “Cinderella,” which means there was a lot of work in the makeup department to pull that off. Horror deserves to show up more often here. “Kokuho” I hear might actually have the most makeup and hairstyling from a traditional sense, but that movie has not been made available for me to watch, so I can’t personally be the judge of that. And I don’t want to base a vote simply on the trailer. But even so, the unconventional pick of the horror film still makes me the most happy.
Film Editing
Nominations
- “F1” – Stephen Mirrione
- “Marty Supreme” – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- “One Battle After Another” – Andy Jurgensen
- “Sentimental Value” – Olivier Bugge Coutté
- “Sinners” – Michael P. Shawver
Will Win
- “One Battle After Another” – Andy Jurgensen
Should Win
- “F1” – Stephen Mirrione
This is another category where I want to predict “F1” as the winner for similar reasons as the Best Sound category. It seems like a movie that many will respond to in the technical categories that it has shown up in. And “Ford v Ferrari” won the award back in 2019, so there is precedent for a racing movie like this to win the award. And for my personal ballot, that’s where I will go. But for the prediction, I’ve noticed that this often goes to a best picture front runner, which makes me lean “Sinners” or “One Battle After Another.” To differentiate between the two, I tried to look at the ACE Eddie precursor, but they split comedy and drama into different categories. “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” were in different categories. And both won. So that didn’t help. But thinking about this logically, “One Battle” does have the “most” editing. The movie is nearly three hours long, yet flies by. That’s good editing work. And the car chase scene at the end could also put it over the edge. If “One Battle” does win this category, is that a sign that it’s going to win the night? Possibly. But in comparing our two movies, I think “One Battle” will simply stand out more for editing than “Sinners.”
Costume Design
Nominations
- “Avatar: Fire and Ash” – Deborah L. Scott
- “Frankenstein” – Hate Hawley
- “Hamnet” – Malgosia Turzanska
- “Marty Supreme” – Miyako Bellizzi
- “Sinners” – Ruth E. Carter
Will Win
- “Frankenstein” – Hate Hawley
Should Win
- “Frankenstein” – Hate Hawley
Quick side tangent before diving into the “Frankenstein” of this. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” only got two nominations this year. I find it a bit odd that this is the one category that it broke into, especially since most of the movie is visual effects. I suppose you still need to design costumes for your digitally created characters. And maybe there was some real costumes worn in filming. But it’s still odd. But yes, there was a lot of love for “Frankenstein” when nominations came out and this is another category where it feels correct. I pondered on the other options personally, namely “Hamnet” and “Sinners,” but ultimately there is a wide variety of different costumes worn in “Frankenstein” across the many sections of that movie, so I think I tend to agree with the populous choice here.
Cinematography
Nominations
- “Frankenstein” – Dan Laustsen
- “Marty Supreme” – Darius Khondji
- “One Battle After Another” – Michael Bauman
- “Sinners” – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
- “Train Dreams” – Adolpho Veloso
Will Win
- “One Battle After Another” – Michael Bauman
Should Win
- “Frankenstein” – Dan Laustsen
This is a category that is seen as an intense three movie race at the moment between “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” and “Train Dreams.” And as I sit and ponder which movie seems like the best choice, I can totally understand why voters themselves might be puzzled over this, too. All of these movies are beautifully shot films. I don’t know if “Train Dreams” is going to win anything on Oscar night, but it does have a lot of support as a film and this is the category where it has the best chance. I could see a scenario where some voters say that there’s plenty of other categories to reward the major films and give this one to “Train Dreams,” considering most of that movie relied very heavily on its cinematography to help tell its story. Yet every other film has similar arguments. To help me break the tie, instead of going with another dart throw, I looked at what the American Society of Cinematographers did. Their nominations were this exact five. No category split. And they went “One Battle After Another.” For my vote, I’m continuing the “Frankenstein” run. That movie was absolutely gorgeous and I’m very happy I caught it in a theater. If you waited and saw it on Netflix instead, I think you missed out. But I blame Netflix for that. “Sinners” and “Train Dreams” would be very close behind for me, though.
Production Design
Nominations
- “Frankenstein” – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
- “Hamnet” – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
- “Marty Supreme” – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
- “One Battle After Another” – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
- “Sinners” – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
Will Win
- “Frankenstein” – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Should Win
- “Frankenstein” – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
This is the final technical category on my list, and with that we continue the “Frankenstein” run. Honestly, it makes me feel like “Frankenstein” might be higher up on ballots than people might think, but it makes sense for this to be the big technical play on the night. I don’t want to act too much like a broken record by repeating myself. But again, many costumes, many characters, many sections of the movie, absolutely gorgeous. And that means many different sets that are designed. The totality of it all is what puts it over the top for me. The other categories have well-designed sets when you force yourself to stop and think about them. But this is one where “Frankenstein” really jumps out at you while you watch.
Animated Feature Film
Nominations
- “Arco” – Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman (Multiple Production Companies)
- “Elio” – Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm (Pixar)
- “KPop Demon Hunters” – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong (Sony Pictures Animation)
- “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” – Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (Multiple Production Companies)
- “Zootopia 2” – Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino (Walt Disney Animation Studios)
Will Win
- “KPop Demon Hunters” – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong (Sony Pictures Animation)
Should Win
- “Zootopia 2” – Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino (Walt Disney Animation Studios)
Very little debate on this one needed. “KPop Demon Hunters” is the major animated movie of the moment and it has had no trouble sweeping this category in just about every precursor it has shown up in. The movie that is trying to play spoiler is the recently crowned highest-grossing movie at the domestic box office – “Zootopia 2.” While that Disney movie has a lot of love, here’s a stat for you. In the now 25 years of this category existing (2001 was the first year), only one franchise has had a sequel win this award – Toy Story. That being “Toy Story 3” and “Toy Story 4.” Outside those, the Academy has proven that they don’t usually vote for animated sequels. Even popular ones such as “Inside Out 2” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” also lost. So “Zootopia 2” doesn’t seem like it has a very good chance in my book. It wins my personal vote mostly by default. I have it slightly over “Elio” in my yearly ranking of 2025. Although I’m actually pretty confident that I would vote for “Arco” or “Little Amélie,” but those small, indie distributors have not yet made those two movies available for me to watch. They are very high on my watch list when they do become available.
Casting
Nominations
- “Hamnet” – Nina Gold
- “Marty Supreme” – Jennifer Benditti
- “One Battle After Another” – Cassandra Kulukundis
- “The Secret Agent” – Gabriel Domingues
- “Sinners” – Francine Maisler
Will Win
- “Sinners” – Francine Maisler
Should Win
- “Sinners” – Francine Maisler
Here’s our newest category this year, Best Casting! I’m happy to see it here because this is a great way to honor the full cast of a movie, while giving credit to the casting director for putting them all together. Many award shows have some version of a best cast, which makes sense because many movies are great acting showcases, but it’s hard to point out just one or two to represent. To me this feels like this honors that part of the acting realm, but also gives attention to finding new cast members or bringing actors together that you wouldn’t necessarily think. With it being the first time this award has existed at the Oscars, it makes it mostly guess work in trying to figure out what the collective group of Academy voters is going to lean towards in terms of what they prefer. And it might take a few years to establish a pattern. But it seems like most people think that “Sinners” is going to get the inaugural trophy. As I sit and ponder on the cast of each film myself, I think that makes sense. Some have noted that “Marty Supreme” has a lot of cast members that aren’t actors. But that one, and several others, primarily focuses the movie on a select few characters, while others come and go quickly. The cast for “Sinners” is massive and they all play a huge role. Plus there’s some like Miles Caton who feel like an excellent find. This was his first movie and it was a huge breakout. But I don’t know. I’m just talking through this. Maybe it will take me a few years, too, to figure out what I like most when it comes to best casting.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominations
- “Bugonia” – Sreenplay by Will Tracy
- “Frankenstein” – Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
- “Hamnet” – Screenplay by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell
- “One Battle After Another” – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
- “Train Dreams” – Screenplay by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
Will Win
- “One Battle After Another” – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Should Win
- “Frankenstein” – Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
Now we are at the biggest awards of the night. And we start with the writing, which is insanely easy to predict. “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” are the two major front runners and they are competing in separate writing categories. They’re both going to win. Sorry that I just spoiled my next section. But with this category, it’s what I said at the beginning. Paul Thomas Anderson is going to win an Oscar. That seems like a guaranteed, set in stone event. Will he win three or just one? I don’t know. You’ll see my official guess here in a second. But at an absolute minimum, he is winning best adapted screenplay. I don’t think there’s even a spoiler candidate here. Personally I don’t play the game of career achievements, though. I have zero problem with Paul Thomas Anderson being a winner. And I did enjoy “One Battle After Another.” But I didn’t enjoy it as much as some other people. For me this is a tough choice between “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” and “Bugonia,” the latter being almost what I went with, due to how fun and clever it is. But I think I’m going traditional here. In my review of “Frankenstein” I noted that it seemed like Guillermo set out to make the quintessential version of the Mary Shelley novel, which surprisingly we haven’t really had. Most adaptations do their own thing or follow the 1930s movie, which was very different. But Guillermo’s version feels like the most faithful version, while also striking an impressive balancing act of being strictly Guillermo. And to me that was one of the most impressive parts of his movie. No shade to Paul, but I would give Guillermo the trophy.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominations
- “Blue Moon” – Written by Robert Kaplow
- “It Was Just an Accident” – Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators - Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian
- “Marty Supreme” – Written by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
- “Sentimental Value” – Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
- “Sinners” – Written by Ryan Coogler
Will Win
- “Sinners” – Written by Ryan Coogler
Should Win
- “Sinners” – Written by Ryan Coogler
Easy prediction. Easy analysis. I already mentioned it in my previous section, but in case you skimmed over that one and stopped here, Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler are competing in two different writing categories. And they are both winning Oscars. It won’t be helpful for trying to see what eventually wins Best Picture, but it’s definitely a fair way of doing things. For my pick, adapted screenplay was tricky to pick, but this is very easy. “Sinners” is my favorite movie of 2025. A big part of that is because it’s a vampire horror musical, that also dips its feet into being a period piece, a western, and a handful of other things. That’s a massive swing of an idea that requires a true master to pull it off. And before you can execute the final idea, you need to have a pretty solid, tight screenplay as the baseline. And there was some true magic that went into those written words that made this movie work so well.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominations
- Elle Fanning – “Sentimental Value”
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – “Sentimental Value”
- Amy Madigan – “Weapons”
- Wunmi Mosaku – “Sinners”
- Teyana Taylor – “One Battle After Another”
Will Win
- Wunmi Mosaku – “Sinners”
Should Win
- Wunmi Mosaku – “Sinners”
This is where my personal predictions have a chance of falling apart. I feel like I’m taking a bit of risk here by predicting Wunmi to get the win, but this has been a wild race all season. In fact, three of the four acting races seem like they’re up in the air, with only one locked in. Most years it’s the opposite. Amy Madigan has always been the buzzed about performance, but there were questions as to if it would translate, or even result in a nomination. Horror doesn’t do well at the Oscars. And that’s funny to say that with “Sinners” present, but “Weapons” is definitely pure horror, while “Sinners” is that and a whole lot more. Amy did get the nomination, which was awesome. But it seemed like Teyana Taylor had this in the bag at first. I was fine with that. She does great in “One Battle After Another.” But then Amy started actually winning, including the Actor Award (formerly known as the SAG Award), which is the biggest predictor. And now she’s the front runner and safe bet. Wunmi won the BAFTA award, but Amy wasn’t nominated there. With the momentum of “Sinners,” there has been buzz that she rides that to an Oscar win, but the betting odds and stats are still against that. Logic says pick Amy, but I’m still caught up on this whole horror thing with the Academy, which I do feel is part of the reason why Demi Moore lost last year for “The Substance.” With all this doubt in my head about horror, and Teyana not having actually won anything lately, I’m going with Wunmi here. Maybe I’m just voting with my heart on this one because she would be my personal choice, too. It’s close because there’s a lot of great performances, but I’m thinking of whose name called would make me the happiest and it’s Wunmi.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominations
- Benicio del Toro – “One Battle After Another”
- Jacob Elordi – “Frankenstein”
- Delroy Lindo – “Sinners”
- Sean Penn – “One Battle After Another”
- Stellan Skarsgard – “Sentimental Value”
Will Win
- Delroy Lindo – “Sinners”
Should Win
- Delroy Lindo – “Sinners”
Speaking of complicated, I’ll try not to get lost in the weeds too much here, but both supporting actor categories are equally as confusing when you try to follow the race. Sean Penn is the favorite. He won both BAFTA and the Actor Award. But Stellan Skarsgard was not nominated at the Actors and Delroy Lindo wasn’t nominated for either of them. Sean Penn has won two Oscars. Are they going to give him a third, when Stellan and Delroy have won zero, and are both options on the ballot? In fact, this is their first nomination for both and you never know if there’s another opportunity coming. I think Stellan is the most logical choice in my brain, but the only major precursor he won was the Golden Globe. Delroy hasn’t won anything, either. But he wasn’t an option at those others. His was a surprise nomination at the Oscars. And even though I might again be voting for my heart over my brain, I do think there is some legitimate groundswell for support. With him being an option to choose, it’s very possible they do just that. Like with Wunmi, hearing his name would make me the happiest. I just want everyone from “Sinners” to win something. But my personal No. 2 would be Jacob Elordi. As Frankenstein’s Monster, he put that whole movie on his back and made it work. The movie remains visually gorgeous and perfect on a technical scale, but the story doesn’t work without Elordi’s performance. So it’s close, but it’s still Delroy for me.
Actress in a Lead Role
Nominations
- Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet”
- Rose Byrne – “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
- Kate Hudson – “Song Sung Blue”
- Renate Reinsve – “Sentimental Value”
- Emma Stone – “Bugonia”
Will Win
- Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet”
Should Win
- Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet”
Three of the four acting races seem like legitimate toss-ups. One of them is set in stone. This is the one that’s set in stone. Not that I support gambling, but if there was one category to bet your life savings on, this is the category. There is no debate. There is no spoiler. There has been no up and down narrative as the season has gone on. She started the awards season as the heavy front runner and she followed that up by winning literally everything she was nominated for. It would be the biggest upset in Oscar history if she lost. Maybe that’s a slight hyperbole, but you get what I’m saying. And it’s very deserved. Not only do I love the fact that Jessie is about to become an Oscar winner, but she gave one of the most devastatingly emotional performances that I’ve seen in some time. I don’t want to randomly drop “Hamnet” spoilers without warning, but it was one of my top movies of last year and it was all because of her and what her character went through over the course of the film.
Actor in a Lead Role
Nominations
- Timothée Chalamet – “Marty Supreme”
- Leonardo DiCaprio – “One Battle After Another”
- Ethan Hawke – “Blue Moon”
- Michael B. Jordan – “Sinners”
- Wagner Moura – “The Secret Agent”
Will Win
- Michael B. Jordan – “Sinners”
Should Win
- Michael B. Jordan – “Sinners”
I love how this category has evolved over the course of the season. It hasn’t been a three-horse race like the supporting ones, but early on it was seen as the year that Timothée Chalamet was winning his Oscar. He gave a very good performance in a movie that I also thought was pretty great. I walked out of the theater saying to myself that I think Timmy just gave the best performance of his career and would have my vote at the Oscars. But then I immediately stopped myself, reminding myself that Michael B. Jordan still existed. He gave my actual favorite performance from my favorite movie, made more impressive that he perfectly played two different characters. It’s the same Michael B. Jordan, but you can easily tell who is Stack and who is Smoke in the movie. And not just with what each is wearing, but he gives distinct performances for both, someone playing off himself to make it work. I didn’t think it would be actually realistic that he would win the Oscar, though. There was even a bit of doubt that he would get nominated. When he did, I thought to myself that him just being there is the win. And maybe that still ends up being the story, but Timmy has stumbled down the stretch, losing both BAFTA and the Actor Award, that latter going to… Michael B. Jordan. So this one is more than just voting with my heart, although I’m definitely doing that, too. Michael B. Jordan is the betting favorite to win. And I so hope it happens. If Timmy wins, awesome. Both are deserving. But Michael B. Jordan winning for “Sinners” specifically would be an absolutely legendary Oscar win.
Directing
Nominations
- Chloé Zhao – “Hamnet”
- Josh Safdie – “Marty Supreme”
- Paul Thomas Anderson – “One Battle After Another”
- Joachim Trier – “Sentimental Value”
- Ryan Coogler – “Sinners”
Will Win
- Paul Thomas Anderson – “One Battle After Another”
Should Win
- Ryan Coogler – “Sinners”
I don’t want to set this one in stone. If “Sinners” has an outstanding night, it’s very possible that Ryan Coogler rides that to a Best Director win. But the narrative at the very beginning of this post still seems like the narrative that I’m going with here. The Academy has decided they want to finally give Paul Thomas Anderson his Oscar win. And I think many voters are going to make sure that’s set in stone by voting for him in both writing and directing, to ensure that he at least wins one. And I think that leads to him winning both. And my evidence of that, outside almost every prognosticator predicting that to happen, is that he won at the Directors Guild Awards (DGA). So it seems like a pretty safe bet. However, even if he wins here, I still don’t think that tells the story of who wins Best Picture. They could easily split and everyone goes home happy. For my personal pick, though, obviously I’m going Coogler. He took a massive swing with his idea, wrote a perfect script, then followed that up with the perfect execution. I don’t even have Guillermo in this category to debate myself with. Chloé and Josh both did good. They’d be my two and three. But they don’t hold a candle to Coogler. Sorry, Paul. I know you’re going to be massively disappointed that a nobody like me made you wait to win your Oscar in his own voting, but I think you’ll be happy with your actual win. I don’t decide the Oscars.
Best Picture
Nominations
- “Bugonia” – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, Producers (Focus Features)
- “F1” – Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers (Warner Bros.)
- “Frankenstein” – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, Producers (Netflix)
- “Hamnet” – Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, Producers (Focus Features)
- “Marty Supreme” – Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, Producers (A24)
- “One Battle After Another” – Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers (Warner Bros.)
- “The Secret Agent” – Emilie Lesclaux, Producer (NEON)
- “Sentimental Value” – Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berensten Ottmar, Producers (NEON)
- “Sinners” – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers (Warner Bros.)
- “Train Dreams” – Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, Producers (Netflix)
Will Win
- “Sinners” – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers (Warner Bros.)
Should Win
- “Sinners” – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers (Warner Bros.)
And here we are. I don’t think I need to explain my personal pick. “Sinners” was my favorite movie of 2025. If you want to check out my full blog post with my top movies of the year, feel free to do so. For my full rankings of all the Best Picture nominees, in regards to my personal favorites, go check out my Letterboxd or any of my socials. I shared that there. I’ll focus these comments on the race itself. And yes, for this category, it’s only these two. “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners.” And I don’t know which one it’s going to be. I really don’t. Even though I’ve gone through this whole post and made my picks, I think that could fit with either one winning. Maybe the reward for “Sinners” is the writing and acting wins. Maybe the reward is simply breaking the record for most nominations. But I do think there’s a genuine support that feels natural. I do think there’s been a shift in momentum. Personally this has felt like “Parasite” and “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” A non-typical film that the old Academy would’ve rejected that breaks through and wins over the hearts of people all around the world. Yet logic still says “One Battle After Another,” especially when you look at stats, odds, and precursors. But my heart wants “Sinners” and my gut feels like it’s going to happen. I’m oddly nervous about “cursing” my favorite movie by picking it to win Best Picture, but I feel the curse was lifted when “Everything Everywhere” won Best Picture three years ago. It was my favorite of that year and I correctly predicted it as the winner. If I’m wrong, then oh well. A movie directed by Paul Thomas Anderson will be in the Oscar history books as a Best Picture winner. And that’s not a terrible consolation prize, even if I’m personally not quite as high as some others are.
