Welcome to the hottest month of the year! At least in certain parts of the world, that is. In addition to temperatures being scorching hot with the summer being in full force, July is about to light the box office on fire. Historically speaking, July is almost always the highest-grossing month of the year. Even in years where a Star Wars or a Spider-Man film shows up in a different month, July is at least in the top two or three. Current prognostications indicate that this trend is highly likely to continue this month.
In regards to what happened in June, after a surprisingly strong May at the domestic box office, June’s numbers were nearly identical, following up May’s $1.063 billion with $1.057 billion. This happened despite some contrasting headlines. While May’s story was led by the breakout hits of “Obsession” and “Backrooms,” the narrative in June was led heavily by the massive disappointments of “Masters of the Universe” and “Supergirl.” The saving grace for June was, of course, “Toy Story 5,” which had the best opening ever for a Toy Story film by a large margin, as well as the second best ever for any Pixar release. The aforementioned May breakouts also contributed significantly, coming in second and third place overall for the month, helping the month sneak past the billion dollar mark. As we head into July, the number of releases on the calendar each week might not be very high, but the releases that are there will certainly give us plenty to talk about in this preview, as there’s several high-profile films that have already sparked considerable chatter, so let’s jump in and sort through it all!
As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com. As I’ve chronicled for much of this current year, both of those sites continue to have their struggles, which results in me bringing in the likes of Box Office Mojo, IMDb, and others to make sure I’ve got the information correct. The movies listed in this post are the movies currently slated for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are always subject to change.
July 3 – 5
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| Universal's "Minions & Monsters" |
In the United States, this past weekend was Independence Day. With the holiday landing on a Saturday, that made for a slightly unconventional weekend, with parades, fireworks, and family barbecues dominating on Saturday while Friday and Sunday were the bigger movie days. Coming out on top, in a much closer race than most expected, was Minions & Monsters, the seventh movie in the Despicable Me franchise, as well as the third in the current Minions trilogy. These little yellow creatures have dominated homes and social media memes ever since they were introduced in 2010. They’ve also become the face of Illumination themselves. And yes, it is 2015’s “Minions” that is the highest grossing movie in the Despicable Me franchise, with $1.157 billion worldwide. Not any of the main saga Despicable Me movies. And not that story, plot, or characters need to be talked about too much when it comes to the Minions. Non-stop Minion gags is more or less the point, making it fairly easy to entertain young audiences with not much effort. But the adventure this time around sends audiences to Old Hollywood, with the Minions having a goal of making their own monster movie, resulting in them running into a number of real monsters themselves. This premise managed to strike a chord with critics as it is the highest reviewed movie in the seven-movie franchise, scoring a 91 percent from critics on Rotten Tomatoes. But did the actual target audience respond in the same way?
“Minions and Monsters” got a head start on the weekend, opening on Wednesday, July 1. Instantly the story became the surprise underperformance of the movie. The previous six entries have averaged a 3-day opening weekend of $85.1 million. Both Minions movies are at the top of that, opening to $115.7 and $107.0 million, respectively. Just two years ago, “Despicable Me 4” had this exact release strategy, opening the Wednesday before Independence Day. It opened to $75.0 million on the 3-day and $122.6 million on the 5-day. With all that in context, it was rather surprising to see “Minions & Monsters” open with only $37.0 million over the 3-day and $62.0 million over the 5-day. The best explanation for this is likely a combination of factors rather than one particular reason, but it could probably be summed up best by simply stating that franchise fatigue has finally set in. The excitement just wasn’t there, making this entry feel less like a must-see event film and more like something that can be caught up on later when it hits streaming.
Opening in third place on the weekend, with “Toy Story 5” coming in second place, was our other new wide release of the weekend, Young Washington. This is the movie that, for obvious reasons, benefited the most from the holiday weekend. While every other movie in the top 10 averaged a Friday to Saturday drop of 36 percent, followed by a Saturday to Sunday increase of 16 percent, “Young Washington” did the opposite, increasing 1 percent from Friday to Saturday, while then dropping 47 percent on Sunday. If there was a movie to see amidst the festivities, “Young Washington” became the popular choice. The movie was released by Angel Studios and was directed by popular Christian director Jon Erwin (“I Can Only Imagine,” “I Still Believe,” “Jesus Revolution”). The plot focuses mainly on George Washington’s experiences and command in the French and Indian War from 1753 to 1755. Unsurprisingly, the movie was well received by its target audience, scoring a 93 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and an “A” on CinemaScore. Christian audiences are among the most forgiving out there when it comes to Christian movies. But it also scored a 60 percent from critics, which is actually a bit higher than one might expect, especially since this movie’s heavy usage of AI has a heavy topic of debate, being defended by Erwin himself. The typical opening for an Angel Studios release is often around $3-5 million. However, with the holiday theme, it made sense for this to hit the higher range for Angel Studios, matching the likes of “David” ($22.0 million) and “The King of Kings” ($19.371 million). I list three decimal points for “The King of Kings” because “Young Washington” had a near identical $19.372 million when final numbers came out. “Young Washington” opened to just $920 more. That movie was also holiday themed and fell 76 percent in its third weekend when Easter was over, so I wouldn’t be surprised if “Young Washington” was similarly frontloaded.
July 10 – 12
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| Disney's "Moana" |
How soon is too soon for a live-action remake? This weekend, Disney will be testing to see how audiences react to just 10 years prior with their latest remake, Moana. Having mined the Disney Renaissance Era pretty thoroughly, while coming up empty in the Classic Era with the failure of “Snow White,” Disney struck gold last year by encroaching on the 2000s with “Lilo & Stitch,” a movie that joined the billion-dollar box office club. And when Disney finds that level of success, you know they aren’t going to be done. Now they will see how the 2010s will fare for them. And this is an era where DreamWorks already had major success as “How to Train Your Dragon” last year outgrossed every entry from the animated trilogy. Why “Moana” for Disney, as opposed to either “Frozen” or “Tangled”? Well, there could be a few answers to that, but at least part of the equation might be understood by realizing that, since the launch of Disney+, “Moana” has been the highest streamed movie on the platform and it’s not been particularly close. I certainly don’t need to tell you what this is or that Dwayne Johnson is returning to play the same character that he voiced. You already know. I can add that the trailers have not been met very well and much of the internet is ready to pounce on this and make fun of it in similar ways as they did “Snow White,” but if you’re a parent with a young daughter who has been watching “Moana” on repeat for months or years, you’ll probably be well aware that your daughter doesn’t care about what the internet has to say about all of this. And you probably don’t either. And they’re the ones that will determine how this does. Current tracking is pegging this in the $60-70 million range for its opening, which is far less than the $146 million that “Lilo & Stitch” opened to, but not too far off from the $84.6 million opening of “How to Train Your Dragon.”
Adults not wanting to venture out to “Moana” certainly have quite the pair of counter-programming options to go to instead. Leading the way will be Evil Dead Burn, the latest entry the long running horror franchise that began all the way back in 1981 and launched the career of a then very young Sam Raimi, who celebrated his 22nd birthday eight days after the movie’s world premiere. The initial movie in 1981 was extremely influential in regards to 80s horror as it certainly helped popularize the “cabin in the woods” trope, as well as doing a number for the undead or evil dead horror movies. I’d say zombies, but these movies’ villains are ancient Sumerian demons, called “Deadites,” that are accidentally unleashed when a group of young people read from a cursed book they find. Sam Raimi helmed each chapter in the original trilogy. The franchise was rebooted in 2013 with “Evil Dead,” continued on TV with three seasons of “Ash vs. Evil Dead” from 2015-2018, but then returned to theaters in 2023 with “Evil Dead Rise.” Each of the now three modern films, 2013’s “Evil Dead,” “Evil Dead Rise,” and now “Evil Dead Burn” can be watched as stand-alone horror films with completely separate casts and different stories, but there is certain connective tissue that ties them together as canonical entries in the same universe, with future potential to bring all the characters together. “Evil Dead Burn” specifically follows a family coming together for a family reunion after a death of one of the family members, resulting in what of course becomes a “family reunion from hell.” Raimi is on board as producer of the film, while it’s directed by Sébastien Vaniček, director of the 2023 spider horror film “Infested.” In 2023, “Evil Dead Rise” opened to $24.5 million, which is the range this one is aiming for.
The other bit of counter-programming this weekend is a movie that’s likely on the exact opposite side of the spectrum from a family-friendly Disney film and that’s the Sundance comedy Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass. Played by Zoey Deutch, Gail Daughtry is a hairdresser in rural Kansas and is two weeks away from her wedding. Gail and her fiancé discuss their “celebrity sex pass,” the one celebrity they could have sex with without violating their relationship. Initially assuming it was a joke, Gail gets mad when her fiancé actually uses his pass, which results in her traveling to Los Angeles to find Jon Hamm. Along this wacky journey is a whole host of celebrities playing versions of themselves. The movie was released at Sundance in January, coming out of that with a modest critics score of 83 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Perhaps not glowing reviews that can result from a generous festival crowd, but nevertheless most who saw it considered it a fun time as a lighthearted comedy that doesn’t take itself too seriously. Some even noted a structural framework that resembled a satirical reimagining of “The Wizard of Oz.” If Hollywood is Oz and Jon Hamm is the wizard, then both stories feature a Kansas girl in a new land in search of a powerful man that can help her achieve her goals, while new friends get added along the way. Sundance movies don’t usually translate into significant box office numbers, but this at the very least poses as an available alternative to the present blockbuster landscape.
July 17 – 19
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| Universal's "The Odyssey" |
There’s only one new wide release this weekend, but it’s a big one as Christopher Nolan will be holding the entire industry hostage with his adaptation of The Odyssey. It’s a tale as old as time and one of the greatest stories ever told. “The Iliad” and “The Odyssey” are estimated to have been written by Homer between 800 and 700 BCE, meaning we’ve had nearly 3,000 years of these stories being passed on from generation to generation, being a major influence on just about every genre of storytelling ever since. In regards to film and television, Homer has 72 writing credits on IMDb and that only includes official instances of “based on the epic poem by” in the end credits, not every last movie or show that was inspired or influenced by either story. Yet despite all this, when it comes to “The Odyssey” specifically, is there one cinematic version where people can unanimously declare as the quintessential adaptation of the story? Debatable, I suppose, but Christopher Nolan is aiming to do just that. And he has just about everyone on board to help him out, which includes Matt Damon as Odysseus, Tom Holland as Telemachus, Anne Hathaway as Penelope, Robert Pattinson as Antinous, Lupita Nyong’o as Helen of Troy, Zendaya as Athena, Charlize Theron as Calypso, and many more. Fresh off winning best picture and best director for “Oppenheimer” in 2024, it appears Nolan can do no wrong. “Oppenheimer” earned $976.8 million worldwide, and that was essentially a three-hour, dialogue-heavy biopic. It’s very plausible that “The Odyssey,” which is inherently more broadly appealing, could do even better and perhaps be the latest movie to join the billion-dollar club.
It would be irresponsible to leave this post without acknowledging the flip side of the coin here. And since we don’t have any other movies to talk about this weekend, we certainly have the room to fit it in. While I’d contend the general consensus is that of extreme excitement, and the director of other movies such as “The Dark Knight,” “Inception,” “Memento,” “Interstellar,” and the aforementioned “Oppenheimer” hasn’t given many reasons to doubt him, there is a large contingent of online folks that have latched onto this movie with extreme anger, resulting in the latest trailer to be one of the most heavily disliked trailers ever. Concerns have mostly stemmed from casting choices such as Lupita Nyong’o and Elliot Page, as well as purported historical inaccuracies or not doing the mythology justice. While I’ll not address those opinions here directly, I will pose the question of… will the internet mobs be successful in taking this movie down? The answer is that this seems highly unlikely. Not only has Nolan built up a very strong reputation over the years, but the movie’s world premiere happened while I was typing this post. The online reaction has thus far been aggressively positive, some calling this Nolan’s magnum opus and one of the must-see movies of the year. Pre-sales have also been very strong, especially for IMAX and other premium formats, which this movie was specifically filmed for. Box Office Pro in their long range forecast projected this to open in the range of $100-120 million, and that was before the world premiere was held. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and I’m sure there will be some degree of mixed reaction from more casual audiences, but this does not seem like a battle that the angry internet mobs are going to win.
July 24 – 26
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| Viva Pictures' "Pinocchio Unstrung" |
The summer season moves on, but this particular weekend in July is one where most major studios smartly took the weekend off, as being smashed between Nolan and Spider-Man is not the best release strategy. There are a handful of smaller releases to talk about in the meantime and I’ll start with what might be the most recognizable title, Pinocchio Unstrung. Yes, this technically means that there are not one, but two live-action Disney remakes coming out this month. But this is not the one parents will be taking their kids to. This one belongs in what’s been labeled as the Twisted Child Universe, a series of dark horror reimaginings of characters and stories from children’s literature that are now in the public domain. This universe was conceived and created by Rhys Frake-Waterfield, and produced by his Jagged Edge Productions film studio. This dates back to 2022 when Winnie the Pooh entered public domain, which resulted in the 2023 release of “Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey.” That was followed up by a sequel to that movie in 2024 as well as two movies last year, “Peter Pan’s Neverland Nightmare” and “Bambi: The Reckoning.” And now Pinocchio is coming to haunt your dreams, a movie directed by Frake-Waterfield himself. And if you think this is going to end anytime soon, that’s likely not the case. These are micro-budgeted movies that need barely anything to make a profit, yet have reportedly made nearly $20 million worldwide, although specific numbers are a bit disputed. Opening weekend prospects? “Blood and Honey” made $1.4 million in its first five days. “Bambi” did $105,642 from just 300 theaters. So there’s a bit of a range. But any one of these could suddenly pop off and fund their next 10 movies, so any attention is good attention for them.
If you’re in the mood for horror, but a murderous Pinocchio doesn’t seem like your vibe, this next movie may or may not be your vibe either, but it’s at least another option. That’s the return of Nicolas Winding Refn with his latest film, Her Private Hell. Nicolas Winding Refn is a director who seemingly has no interest in making a film directed at the masses, resulting in movies that are highly unconventional and thus have understandably produced polarizing results. That’s why I mention that this “may or may not be your vibe.” Previous movies of his include “Drive,” “Only God Forgives,” and “The Neon Demon.” This latest movie of his is actually his first theatrically released movie since “The Neon Demon,” which was back in 2016. To be perfectly honest, I watched the trailer for “Her Private Hell” and came out of that having no idea how to describe what I saw. There’s neon lighting, hypnotic moments, and trippy sequences. Wikipedia labels it as a “science fiction horror thriller,” which almost says that they’re not sure how to classify it. IMDb’s description calls it “A hypnotic, unhinged thriller with an original story promising plenty of glamour, sex, and violence.” That tells me what’s in it, but not what the plot is. Even though I have no idea what this is, and neither does anyone else, apparently, one thing I can say is this definitely feels like a Nicolas Winding Refn film. Again, Refn hasn’t released anything in theaters in a decade and when he did, “The Neon Demon” made $589,014 in its opening weekend. So there’s no guarantee of this hitting anything beyond a niche appeal, but it does have the highest viewed trailer of these four movies, for what it’s worth.
Veering away from horror and onto action, the third movie of this weekend is Motor City. This movie appears to be a very stylized action film that initially premiered at the Venice Film Festival last year. IFC Entertainment purchased the U.S. distribution rights for about $3-4 million, so they would love to get that back in its theatrical release, although the actual reported production budget was about $30 million. The movie is set in the 1970s and stars Alan Ritchson as a Vietnam war veteran who is just coming off of probation and falls in love with a girl, who is played by Shailene Woodley. Her ex-boyfriend, played by Ben Foster, is a mobster with connections who wants her back, so he sets him up and gets him thrown back in prison for a crime he didn’t commit. All of this leads to a prison break and a revenge quest to win his girl back. The catch? There’s apparently very little dialogue in this film, hence me calling it a stylized action film. I normally don’t turn to IMDb reviews and scores in previews like this, but there’s currently two IMDb reviews posted – one being a 9/10 calling it a unique and visceral revenge story, while the other is a 1/10 calling it pretentious slop. The review curve also looks like a section of the Golden Gate Bridge. A lot of 1s. A lot of 10s. And a curved dip in between. Letterboxd reactions were a bit more nice to it, but what this tells me is that general audiences who do give it a chance will likely find this very polarizing. If you’re not vibing with it, it might have the strong potential to drive you crazy.
And finally, the movie that I’m guessing will end up at the bottom of the totem pole is the Christian comedy Bad Counselors, which stars two fraternity brothers posing as Christian camp counselors in order to complete a court-ordered community service. By the looks of the trailers, it would appear that over the course of the movie they go from faking Christianity to having the experience move them in an honest way, genuinely changing their lives and attitude. As the tagline of the trailer says, sometimes you gotta fake it to find something real. Now the reason I predict this may end up on the bottom of the totem pole is not due to the premise or the genre. Christian films can definitely breakthrough and find an audience. But this one is a Fathom Events release and they’re framing it as a July 22-27 theatrical event only. Short theatrical event windows like this from Fathom are usually paired with less of a marketing push and limited awareness. The window usually only gets extended when they get a genuine grassroots breakout. If not, this often ends up as more of a PVOD and streaming play rather than a big theatrical push.
July 31 – August 2
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| Sony's "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" |
The final weekend of July is only one day in July and two days in August, but I always include these hybrid weekends in the month where the weekend begins. For a programming note, this means my August Preview will begin with the weekend of August 7-9. But anyways, this is where we’ll see what’s not only poised as the biggest release of the month, but perhaps the entire year. And that’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day. Life in the Marvel Cinematic Universe after “Avengers: Endgame” has been quite the rocky ride, with some very high highs and some tragic lows, with reaction being a lot more mixed in comparison to the previous Infinity Saga. But the biggest high by far was the December 2021 release of “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” which was not only the third highest-grossing movie in the MCU, behind only “Infinity War” and “Endgame,” but with $1.921 billion is one of the biggest box office stories ever. Making this more impressive is that this came in the midst of COVID recovery, proving to the whole world that cinema wasn’t dead. It was just waiting for the right moment to return. Spoiler warning for that movie, because this new movie is hard to describe without it, but that was a movie that united all three previous live-action Spider-Man characters – Tobey Maguire, Andrew Garfield, and Tom Holland. And it ended with Tom Holland having to make everyone forget he exists. “Brand New Day” is the first movie in this new world of his where everyone has forgotten who he is. By the looks of things, he’s doing what he can to help the others remember. At least when it comes to MJ and Ned. In the meantime, he’s having webbing issues, has a face-off with the villain Scorpion – played by “Better Call Saul” actor Michael Mando, and also appears to have to deal with the red-costumed ninjas of The Hand. He’s also joined by Hulk and Punisher at some point, as well as Sadie Sink playing some unannounced, mysterious character that not even she was aware of when she was first cast. Gwen Stacy? Jean Grey? Spider-Girl? Angelica Jones? I don’t know. No one does. Those are just guesses. Gwen Stacy would make the most sense to me if they want to give Peter a new love interest instead of undoing the events of the last film, but I have zero sources on that.
As far as box office prognostications, I have nothing to go by as Box Office Pro has not released their long range forecast for this yet. And the MCU itself has been on quite the roller-coaster lately. All I can say is general buzz seems quite high at the moment. “No Way Home” opened to $260.1 million. Considering that was a special event film featuring the multiverse of Spider-Man characters, I would not expect it to reach those heights. But other highs in this post-Endgame world have included “Deadpool & Wolverine” at $211.4 million, “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” at $187.4 million, and “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” at $181.3 million, and “Thor: Love and Thunder” at $144.2 million. A few others have landed in the $100-120 million range, while some disappointed and broke Marvel’s $100+ million opening streak, but given the popularity of Spider-Man and the goodwill from the last one, I would guess this hits the higher end of the $180-200 million openers.
One final movie to discuss and that is again on the complete opposite end of the spectrum from a family-friendly Spider-Man adventure, but Magnolia hopes that a few people walk into theaters during the Spider-Man weekend and wind up buying a ticket for I Want Your Sex. This movie is another Sundance Film from the beginning of this year, while also making an appearance at quite a number of smaller film festivals afterwards in hopes to build buzz and word of mouth. It’s worked so far as the movie has a positive 88 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes with 43 reviews counted. The movie stars Cooper Hoffman as Elliot, who lands a job for renowned and provocative artist Erika Tracy, played by Olivia Wilde, who uses him as her sexual muse. The movie is described by some as a very sex-positive comedy. But it’s also much more than just that. In fact, comedy/thriller might be the two categories to place this in as the description states that Erika takes Elliot on a journey more profound than he ever could have imagined, into a world of sex, obsession, power, betrayal, and murder. Whether or not this appeals to a broad audience is questionable. Many Sundance releases remain fairly niche. But positive word of mouth and a recognizable cast should make it a popular choice among some film connoisseurs, especially those who have grown weary of the superhero genre and might not be interested in rushing out to Spider-Man right away.
















