Movie Preview: April 2024

It was a miserable start to the box office in the first two months of the year. Through that point, the highest opening weekend of the year was “Bob Marley: One Love” with $28.659 million. I used three decimal points in that case to show that right behind it was “Mean Girls” with $28.635 million, just under $25,000 behind. In exact totals, “Mean Girls” was $23,687 behind “Bob Marley.”

And now after adding just one more month into the year, “Bob Marley” is in 5th place on the year, with “Mean Girls” in 6th place, in terms of opening weekends. Yep, March was huge. Both “Dune: Part Two” and “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” opened with over $80 million, doubling the openings of their 2021 predecessors. “Kung Fu Panda 4” surprised with a $57.9 million opening, almost matching the $60.2 million opening of the original, and opening higher than both the second and third movies, which were both in the $40 million. And finally, “Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire” nearly replicated the opening of “Ghostbusters: Afterlife” with $45 million (“Afterlife” opened to $44 million. The 2016 “Ghosbusters” opened to $46 million, so this has been an extremely consistent franchise as of late). I suppose not improving over a 2021 COVID recovery film could be seen as a mild disappointment, but this was four very solid openings, which led to the highest overall month of March since 2019.

This is a very solid positive trend for our upcoming Summer movie slate beginning in May. But first we need to get through April? Which is historically usually always a cool down month, the silence before the storm between March and May, barring the random Marvel or Fast & Furious movie getting a jump on the summer, which isn’t the case this year. But there are plenty of titles to talk about on the schedule, so let’s get started!

As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of boxofficepro.com and the-numbers.com. The movies listed are the ones currently scheduled for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are always subject to change.

April 5 - 7

Universal's "Monkey Man"

As mentioned in the intro, “Godzilla x Kong” opened with a massive $80 million opening, that being in the last weekend of March. That means in its sophomore weekend, it’s poised to make somewhere between $25-30 million if it follows the trends of its predecessors, which have mostly all been pretty front-loaded. That should still be enough to give it a second weekend win over the two newcomers this weekend.

The biggest competition for the monster movie is looking to be Dev Patel’s new action movie Monkey Man. As an actor, Dev Patel got an Oscar nomination for his performance in “Lion” from 2016, but has also shown up in movies such as “Slumdog Millionaire,” “The Personal History of David Copperfield” and “The Green Knight.” As a director, this is his first attempt at a feature-length film. He’s directed a couple of shorts, but nothing on this scale yet. And by the looks of things, this appears to be an excellent first feature attempt. It’s about a man unleashing vengeance on some corrupt leaders who murdered his mother and continue to do not-so-good things. In an era of action films that have taken heavy inspiration from John Wick, this looks to be another movie riding those coattails. Some have even called this “Indian John Wick.” It premiered at South by Southwest Film Festival last month to strong positive reaction and currently holds an 89 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. That could lead to positive word of mouth and decent legs over the course of the month.

Nun-related horror movies have been a decently common thing as of late. Perhaps that’s inspired by the huge success of “The Nun” and “The Nun II” from the Conjuring Universe. But also, religious-themed horror films have been a huge thing ever since “The Exorcist” in the 70s. Either way, last month we had “Immaculate,” which I didn’t actually cover in my March preview because it wasn’t initially listed as a wide release. But this month we have The First Omen. Both movies have a similar premise about a young woman looking to begin her ministry to the church only to learn of unexpected darkness. “Immaculate” had a bigger name as the lead with Sidney Sweeney, but “The First Omen” seems to have been getting a bigger marketing push and is in more theaters. “Immaculate” wound up opening to $5.3 million from 2,354 theaters. “The First Omen” will be opening in 3,375 theaters and is projected at a $10-15 million opening.

April 12 - 14

A24's "Civil War"

Certainly bound to be one of the most talked about movies of the year is Alex Garland’s Civil War. No this is not a superhero movie. And no this is not a historical movie about the Civil War in the 1800s. This is a fictional, dystopian movie set in the perhaps not-so-distant future about another United States Civil War breaking out, with half the country seceding, which includes an alliance between Texas and California, so obviously not meant to be an exact replication of today’s political divide as Texas and California would seem like the last two states to join forces today. Yet regardless of the exact message this movie is attempting to portray, a movie about a future Civil War coming out during what’s already been a very contentious election year seems a bit too on-the-nose to be completely coincidental. Like “Monkey Man,” this is also a movie that premiered at South by Southwest last month, also getting strong positive reaction. Alex Garland as a directed has usually kept to sci-fi horror movies like “Ex Machina,” “Annihilation” and “Men.” And I suppose this could also qualify as “horror,” albeit in a slightly different type of horror.

Latest on the list of remakes that you perhaps didn’t see coming is the remake of Don’t Tell Mom the Babysitter’s Dead, which is based on the 1991 movie of the same title, that only made $25.2 million in its domestic run and was received with mostly negative reviews. Although despite the poor box office and negative reviews, the movie gained at least somewhat of a cult following, enough to stay in the public conscious to some degree. The movie follows a group of kids who are looking forward to a summer of freedom with their mom on vacation, only to be a bit disappointed when learning their mom hired a rather mean and cruel babysitter to watch over them. But, well… as the title suggests, the babysitter dies and the kids are able to then have the freedom they initially desired. The 1991 original had Christina Applegate in the lead role. This remake has a relatively lesser known group of kids in the starring roles with a relatively lesser known director, with June Squibb as the dead babysitter. So the reliance on the original property will be a pretty heavy lean here and thus it’ll test to see how popular the original property has become or perhaps how much people wanted a remake.

April 19 - 21

Universal's "Abigail"

A very crowded week in terms of new releases as the-numbers.com has a grand total of six movies listed for wide release this weekend. Sifting through the weeds a bit, there’s a couple of movies that are most notable, with the other bunch being movies that we’ll see how wide they actually end up being.

The first of the two notable movies is the horror film Abigail. This comes from the directing duo of Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett, who after finding good success with the 2019 horror comedy “Ready or Not,” a movie about a bride who suddenly has to fight off a bunch of her crazy in-laws during a wedding ritual, were hired on to write and direct the latest two “Scream” movies. And now their next project is about a group of criminals who think they’ve kidnapped a normal girl, the daughter of a powerful underworld figure, only to find out that said girl is a vampire girl. Locked in a house, they somehow have to fight off and survive a crazy, wild ballerina vampire girl. With the big advertising push, the backing of a bigger studio in Universal, and positive vibes from the directing duo, this has the chance to be the biggest horror opening of the year, even if that’s not a huge bar at the moment (currently “The Night Swim” with $11.8 million - which *could* be topped by “The First Omen). A potential comparison on a best case scenario is fellow Universal horror movie that also has a girl’s name as the title, “M3GAN” from January 2022, which opened to $30.4 million.

The other notable movie from this weekend is the latest Guy Ritchie film, The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, which is certainly one of the more catchy titles of late, which could’ve been even longer as it was based on the 2014 book “Churchill’s Secret Warriors: The Explosive True Story of the Special Forces Desperadoes of WWII,” a book title that definitely does a good job of describing the plot. It’s based on the Special Operations Executive, an organization formed by Churchill in 1940 to perform espionage and sabotage in Nazi-occupied Europe. Although Ritchie’s movie is mostly likely a highly fictionalized version of this organization and events, but with plenty of guns, grenades, explosions and shootings portrayed in the trailer, Ritchie fans probably aren’t here for a history lesson. Ritchie’s most recent movie was also a war film released on the third weekend of April, that being last year’s “The Covenant,” which opened to $6.4 million. The range of $6-10 million is what most of Ritchie’s recent films not named “Aladdin” have done, so that’s the expectation again here.

Sorting through the rest of this weekend’s releases is a bit of an interesting game. Perhaps the next most notable movie is actually the wide expansion of Sasquatch Sunset, which is set to open in limited release on April 12. This is a movie that debuted at Sundance this year, then hit the Berlin International Film Festival in February before then hitting South by Southwest, so it’s had some coverage in the festival circuit that could give it a bit of buzz among the film community. It looks to be a unique, somewhat off-kilter comedy following a Sasquatch family for a year and stars Jesse Eisenberg, Riley Keough, Christophe Zajac-Denek, and Nathan Zellner, the latter of whom is also one of the co-directors. This is maybe not a movie that lands well with mainstream audiences, but this could land with a niche crowd who is looking for a more unique film experience.

It’s also probably not a good idea to completely overlook the latest Crunchyroll release as they’ve done good at delivering surprise hits in the anime realm. This weekend they have Spy x Family Code: White, a continuation of the “Spy x Family” anime TV series that began in 2022. This movie was released in Japan last year and was met with very high acclaim and did well at the box office over there, although how that translates over to the states is a different story that we’re about to see. While anime has surprised plenty, this is a franchise that’s not quite on the level of a “Dragon Ball,” “Demon Slayer” or “One Piece” in terms of popularity. Sprinkled in with the major successes are others that made just a few hundred thousand or a million or two.

Movie No. 5 on this weekend is one that I’m a bit surprised to see listed as a wide release and that’s Villains Inc., which is a movie that could most easily be described as the latest feature-length film from J.K. Studios, the group formerly known as Studio C, a sketch comedy group originating from BYU in Provo, Utah. They most recently made the movie “Go West” last year and that one peaked in just 38 theaters as mostly a Utah release. Local Utah distributor, Purdie Distribution, only rarely has released movies in the triple digits, their highest being “The Stray” in 639 theaters, followed by “Meet the Mormons” in 303 theaters. Most movies they do are under 100 theaters. But theater count aside, this is directed by Jeremy Warner, a member of the group who also directed “Go West,” and has Mallory Everton and Jason Gray featured most notably on the poster, although most of the group are likely to show up in some roles, big or small. Mallory and Jason are joined on the poster by “Whose Line Is It Anyway?” alum Colin Mochrie in a movie that seems like a fun comedy about villains trying to be the best villains they can be.

The final movie here is the one that I’m not 100 percent sure actually exists. Every once in a while there’s a movie like this that’s technically listed as wide release on the-numbers.com’s list that I feel obligated to bring up. This one is Wildfire: The Legend of the Cherokee Ghost Horse. If this is a real movie, it’s about a girl who feels guilty about the tragic death of her parents and moves with her brother to their grandma and begins training for a horse competition when a mystery horse shows up and befriends her. The reason I’m not 100 percent this movie exists is because the only trailer I could find is one that was released 10 months ago, only has 7.4K views, and is a really low quality trailer that makes the movie look really bad. Outside that, no signs of much marketing for this. Maybe this hits a couple hundred theaters and makes a few bucks from some family audiences, but outside that I don’t have much hope, but I could be wrong.

April 25 - 27

MGM's "Challengers"

We finish off the month with just two new wide releases, the first being the Zendaya tennis drama Challengers, from director Luca Guadagnino, most notable for the 2017 movie “Call Me By Your Name.” Zendaya plays a former tennis prodigy turned coach who is trying to help her husband on his tennis redemption tour when he has to face off against her former boyfriend, creating a lot of drama and tension and past and present collide. This is a movie that was supposed to debut at last year’s Venice Film Festival and was thought of as a potential awards player, having an initial release date in September, shortly after its festival release. It was pulled from the schedule and pushed into 2024 due to the actor’s strike. Perhaps Amazon shifting focus and dumping it in April instead of letting it be an awards player is a bit of a red flag in regards to their confidence, but having Zendaya available to promote the film felt more important, which should work out nicely, especially since the movie has had plenty of online buzz to help it perform at least somewhat decently.

The final movie of the month comes from the Christian pop duo For King & Country as they tell the story of their older sister Rebecca in the movie Unsung Hero. Specifically this is written and directed by Joel Smallbone, who along with his brother Luke form the duo of For King & Country, which began as Joel & Luke in 2007 before changing their name a few years later as what they currently are and becoming Christian music superstars. But again, this is not a movie about them. This is a movie about their sister, who had a much earlier start, releasing her first studio album in 1991 and is known professionally as Rebecca St. James. The movie is also about their parents trying to hold their family together through various struggles. Faith-based movie meets musical biopic is a formula that could work well if the Christian audience shows up. Lionsgate is pushing their connection to their 2018 movie “I Can Only Imagine,” which was a similarly themed Christian movie that did very well, opening to $17.1 million and making $83.5 million total. Best case scenario is that it could push “Challengers” as the biggest new release on a quiet weekend. Or it could follow the trajectory of fellow Christian movie “Ordinary Angels,” which opened to $6.2 million in February.

The 96th Academy Awards: Predictions

The 96th Academy Awards will take place tomorrow, March 10, in the year of our Lord 2024, honoring the films from 2023. Or at least the movies that hit the minimum qualifications to count towards this year’s ceremony but are really 2024 movies in my book. We’ll get to those when we see them.

Anyways, this is one of my favorite posts of the each year where I go through every single category at the Oscars and list two things: who I think is going to win in each category (“will win”) and who I would personally vote for if I had an Oscar ballot (“should win”). This is mostly just for fun. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. And most likely no one will remember or keep tally outside myself. In a way you can see this as what I was personally expecting going into the night. If I’m mostly right, then cool. That makes me look good. If I get a lot wrong, then that means there was a lot of chaos and unpredictability, which often makes the night more interesting. I think the highest I’ve gotten is 20 or 21 correct. The worst is around 14 or 15. I think this night will land a bit more on the predictable side of the fence, but we’ll see what happens.

As far as my process, you should know that I watch a lot of movies. And I have seen most of these. You might know that I’m also super nerdy when it comes to the awards season. Even if I wind up unhappy with what actually wins the awards, the movies that are in contention are often really good. And this season’s lineup was rather great. Five of the best picture nominees were in my personal top 10 of the year and a few others were pretty close. But yes, I follow the awards season pretty close all year through various podcasts and YouTube channels, my favorite being Awards Radar. In making a prediction, part of it is keeping my finger close to the pulse of what others are thinking, another part of it is looking at the precursors to see who and what have been winning, and then finally sometimes you just gotta go with your gut if you’re not sure, trying to attempt to balance brain and heart.

Enough of all that, though. Here’s my picks and predictions! This is always a long post, but hopefully it’s organized in a way that you can spend as long or short as you want with it. If you have any thoughts about anything I bring up, let me know and we can discuss!

 

Documentary Short Film

Nominations

- “The ABCs of Book Banning” - Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic

- “The Barber of Little Rock” - John Hoffman and Christine Turner

- “Island in Between” - S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien

- “The Last Repair Shop” - Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers

- “Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó” - Sean Wang and Sam Davis 

Will Win

- “The Last Repair Shop” - Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers

Should Win

- “The Last Repair Shop” - Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers

 

Starting with the shorts, these are always the most unpredictable. If you do an Oscar pool with any friends, getting lucky enough to get these right are usually how you’ll win because even the “experts” have no idea how these will go. Pick a name from a hat and see what happens. Any buzz you here seems to indicate that it’s between “The ABCs of Book Banning” and “The Last Repair Shop.” It could go to “The ABCs of Book Banning” due to the social commentary behind that. But I actually watched all of these, most are on YouTube, the others either on Disney+ or Paramount+. And in doing so, “The Last Repair Shop” is just so much better than the other four for me and it’s not remotely close. Maybe this is the wrong way to pick for this one, but I have a hard time seeing people watching all of these and not going with “The Last Repair Shop,” so that’s what I’ll predict.

 

Animated Short Film

Nominations

- “Letter to a Pig” - Tai Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter

- “Ninety-Five Senses” - Jerusha and Jared Hess

- “Our Uniform” - Yegane Moghaddam

- “Pachyderme” - Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius

- “War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” - Dave Mullins and Brad Booker

Will Win

- “Ninety-Five Senses” - Jerusha and Jared Hess

Should Win

- N/A

 

This one feels like a trap. Unlike the previous category of shorts, I have not seen any of these because, annoyingly, they aren’t available to be watched unless you go find the theatrical release of shorts, which for me is 45 minutes away. But anyways, just glancing through the titles, it seems like many will see John and Yoko and give that the way off of name recognition. That’s the trap I’m seeing, though. I think it might go to either “Letter to a Pig” or “Ninety-Five Senses.” I decided to go with the latter with my unscientific approach of me wanting to see Jerusha and Jared Hess, writers and directors of “Napoleon Dynamite” and “Nacho Libre,” win an Oscar. It also has the highest IMDb score of the five, which I’ve sometimes gone with and nailed all three.

 

Live Action Short Film

Nominations

- “The After” - Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham

- “Invincible” - Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron

- “Knight of Fortune” - Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk

- “Red, White and Blue” - Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane

- “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” - Wes Anderson and Steven Rales

Will Win

- “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” - Wes Anderson and Steven Rales

Should Win

- N/A

 

This one also feels like a trap. Is it too easy to just go with Wes Anderson here? There might be some who don’t want to see Wes Anderson’s first ever Oscar win come via a short. There also might be some who think he’s too mainstream and thus might not like such a big name winning in such a small category. But I don’t know, there’s close to 10,000 Academy members and I just have a feeling that most will like the opportunity to give Wes an Oscar. It’s also the highest viewed short by a long shot. I have also not seen any of these, but in this case it’s my own fault. I simply ran out of time. But Wes Anderson did release a series of shorts on Netflix this past year and I’ve been meaning to get around to them. “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” is a movie that I’ve had on my radar. It was on my 2023 yearly movie preview, back when I thought it was a feature-length film and not just a short. So I’ll definitely get around to it.

 

International Feature Film

Nominations

- “Io Capitano” - Italy

- “Perfect Days” - Japan

- “Society of the Snow” - Spain

- “The Teachers’ Lounge” - Germany

- “The Zone of Interest”

Will Win

- “The Zone of Interest”

Should Win

- N/A

 

These movies I would like to give a watch to. But they’re rarely available to be watched, so it’s tough. I have seen two of them, that being “Society of the Snow” and “The Zone of Interest.” The former is on Netflix and the latter had a wide enough theatrical release to hit my local cinema. Of those two, I prefer “Society of the Snow,” but it didn’t feel right making an official pick without having seen the other three. As far as what’s going to win, if France had submitted “Anatomy of a Fall” or if Japan had submitted “Godzilla Minus One,” maybe this is more of a discussion. Beause that’s how this works. They don’t just pick the best international movies. The country has to officially submit their entry and that’s the pool they have to go from. France and Japan submitted different movies. That leaves us with an easy win for “The Zone of Interest,” which got five total nominations, including best picture and best director. When “Society of the Snow” is the only one to even get a second nomination, and that was for makeup and hairstyling, this race was over on nomination morning.

 

Documentary Feature Film

Nominations

- “Bobi Wine: The People’s President” - Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek

- “The Eternal Memory” - Maite Alberdi

- “Four Daughters” - Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha

- “To Kill a Tiger” - Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim

- “20 Days in Mariupol” - Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath

Will Win

- “20 Days in Mariupol” - Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath

Should Win

- “20 Days in Mariupol” - Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath

 

I did spend this past week watching all of these movies. They’re all available to stream. Except for “To Kill a Tiger,”  which doesn’t get released on Netflix until Sunday. I’ll watch it, but I didn’t want to wait to post this. The biggest conversation with this category is the documentaries that DIDN’T get nominated, namely “Still: A Michael J. Fox Story” and “American Symphony,” the two movies that people thought were the two front runners. That leaves us with a rather easy choice because “20 Days in Mariupol” is about the start of the Russian/Ukraine war, as a journalist was in the city for 20 days, showing the terror that average, innocent citizens were experiencing as the Russians were attacking and killing everyone, while trying to cover it up. It’s a hard watch, but one that I think is one that everyone should check out.

 

Music (Original Song)

Nominations

- “The Fire Inside” - Becky G (From “Flaming Hot”; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)

- “I’m Just Ken” - Ryan Gosling (from “Barbie”; Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt)

- “It Never Went Away” - Jon Batiste (from “American Symphony”; Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson)

- “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” - Osage Tribe Singers (from “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Music and Lyric by Scott George)

- “What Was I Made For?” - Billie Eilish (from “Barbie”; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)

Will Win

- “What Was I Made For?” - Billie Eilish (from “Barbie”; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)

Should Win

- “What Was I Made For?” - Billie Eilish (from “Barbie”; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)

 

Billie Eilish will become one of the youngest women to win two Oscars, which I think is really cool. I’ve been a big fan of hers since the start. I remember telling people when I first discovered here that they should check her out because she deserves to become a big name in the music world. And that definitely came to pass, much more than I expected. And as excited as I am to see Ryan Gosling perform “I’m Just Ken,” and as fun as it would be for it to win, Billie’s song was my favorite of last year, movie or not. So I gotta go with it. And I’ll be happy to see her win.

 

Music (Original Score)

Nominations

- “American Fiction” - Laura Karpman

- “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” - John Williams

- “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Robbie Robertson

- “Oppenheimer” - Ludwig Göransson

- “Poor Things” - Jerskin Fendrix

Will Win

- “Oppenheimer” - Ludwig Göransson

Should Win

- “Oppenheimer” - Ludwig Göransson

 

This is an easy category to predict. It’s going to be “Oppenheimer.” A trend that you’ll see throughout this post. It’s a harder one to decide which one is my favorite. I went on a road trip in January and played all of these scores on the drive and they’re all really good. It’s very close for me between “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon.” I almost went for the latter because it feels a tad bit more unique. But listening to the score of “Oppenheimer” felt like I was re-watching the movie and I could see in my head what was happening in the scenes when I was listening. To me that speaks volumes about how impactful the score was in helping get across the message and emotions of the movie.

 

Visual Effects

Nominations

- “The Creator” -  Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould

- “Godzilla Minus One” - Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Chibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima

- “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” - Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek

- “Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning” - Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould

- “Napoelon” - Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould

Will Win

- “Godzilla Minus One” - Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Chibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima

Should Win

- “Godzilla Minus One” - Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Chibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima

 

I’m going with my heart on this one. Logic says “The Creator” will win. If you look at precursors, it has most of the statistics to back it up. But “Godzilla Minus One” was very late to the party and I do feel that there’s a lot of passion behind it. When it’s name came up on nomination morning, there was a very loud, positive response to that announcement. And with “Dune: Part Two” leaving 2023, that left this race wide open. I feel that’s the perfect opportunity to give a fun movie a great win. No one will remember “The Creator” in a year from now. It was visually stunning, but a terrible movie. So can’t we just give Godzilla an Oscar instead?

 

Sound

Nominations

- “The Creator” - Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic

- “Maestro” - Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic

- “Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning” - Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

- “Oppenheimer” - Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell

- “The Zone of Interest” - Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn

Will Win

- “Oppenheimer” - Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell

Should Win

- “Oppenheimer” - Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell

 

Another easy category. “Oppenheimer” is winning. Although for my personal pick, I thought long and hard about “The Zone of Interest.” I didn’t love the movie as a whole, mostly because I don’t know why we needed another Nazi movie. But in regards to the sound design, that kinda made the whole movie. You’re watching a couple and their family live what seems like a normal, average life. Except their Nazi leaders living by the Concentration Camp and the sounds you hear in the background is what makes it horryifing. So in that regard, it’s a solid choice. But at the same time, I decided not to overthink things. “Oppenheimer” is a movie about dropping the bomb on Japan during the war. Sound design is also kinda a big part of that movie, too.

 

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominations

- “Golda” - Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue

- “Maesto” - Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell

- “Oppenheimer” - Luisa Abel

- “Poor Things” - Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston

- “Society of the Snow” - Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé

Will Win

- “Poor Things” - Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston

Should Win

- “Maesto” - Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell

 

This is one of those categories where I have to go with my gut feeling. And my gut feeling tells me that “Poor Things” might have a decent day. It got 11 nominations, which told me that the Academy likes it more than I was expecting. And I don’t think it gets 11 nominations without sneaking away a few wins in the process. It has a giant “Oppenheimer” in the way that will hold it back a tad bit. But this particular category goes down to “Poor Things” and “Maestro.” And it might be the one chance to give “Maestro” a win. And even though I didn’t care for “Maestro,” Bradley Cooper’s transformation over the course of the movie is enough for it to get my vote, but I think the love for “Poor Things” will put it over the edge. You can use Willem Dafoe as an argument in and of itself. His look was wacky and it’s the makeup that did that job and made the movie even more quirky.

 

Film Editing

Nominations

- “Anatomy of a Fall” - Laurent Sénéchal

- “The Holdovers” - Kevin Tent

- “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Thelma Schoonmaker

- “Oppenheimer” - Jennifer Lame

- “Poor Things” - Yorgos Mavropsaridis

Will Win

- “Oppenheimer” - Jennifer Lame

Should Win

- “Oppenheimer” - Jennifer Lame

 

I’ll be short and sweet here. Another technical category that “Oppenheimer” runs away with. And it’s well deserved. Film editing is sometimes hard for me to judge because if an editor does their job, you won’t notice the editing at all. But in this case, a three hour movie flew by in part because of phenomenal editing work, in my opinion. So Jennifer Lame, come on down!

 

Costume Design

Nominations

- “Barbie” - Jacqueline Durran

- “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Jacqueline West

- “Napoleon” - Janty Yates and Dave Crossman

- “Oppenheimer” - Ellen Mirojnick

- “Poor Things” - Holly Waddington

Will Win

- “Poor Things” - Holly Waddington

Should Win

- “Barbie” - Jacqueline Durran

 

Costume design and production design are two of the trickier categories this year. I suppose I won’t be too surprised to hear “Oppenheimer” get called if it sweeps absolutely everything it’s nominated in, but these two categories have the exact same five nominees and it both cases it’s “Barbie” vs. “Poor Things.” I went back and forth on this. For costume design, it’s hard to argue against the Barbie and Ken outfits. They were brilliant and that’s easily my pick. But is that enough to win? I hope so. But I noted that “Poor Things” surprised me on nomination morning by how much it seemed people liked it. “Barbie,” on the other hand, seemed like it disappointed a bit. Maybe there’s a tad bit less enthusiasm. No hard feelings for me. It made $1.435 billion at the worldwide box office alone. It doesn’t need any gold statues to justify it. It would be nice to see it win, but my brain is overruling my heart on this one and saying that “Poor Things” wins out.

 

Cinematography

Nominations

- “El Conde” - Edward Lachman

- “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Rodrigo Prieto

- “Maestro” - Matthew Libatique

- “Oppenheimer” - Hotye van Hoytema

- “Poor Things” - Robbie Ryan

Will Win

- “Oppenheimer” - Hotye van Hoytema

Should Win

- “Oppenheimer” - Hotye van Hoytema

 

I technically haven’t seen “El Conde.” That’s a bit of a random nomination there. But does there need to be much discussion here? It’s an “Oppenheimer” win. And Hotye van Hoytema might want to consider thanking Warner Bros. in his speech for moving “Dune: Part Two” out of 2023. Having seen that movie this month, that would’ve definitely won and will win next year. But with that not an option, it’s an easy “Oppenheimer” win and a deserving one, too.

 

Production Design

Nominations

- “Barbie” - Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer

- “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis

- “Napoleon” - Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff

- “Oppenheimer” - Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman

- “Poor Things” - Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek

Will Win

- “Poor Things” - Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek

Should Win

- “Barbie” - Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer

 

See my conversation above in the costume design section. It’s a “Poor Things” vs. “Barbie” competition here. I want “Barbie” to win. They built the entire Barbie Land and I was very impressed with that. But I can’t really argue too much with “Poor Things.” It’s not as obvious as “Barbie,” but there is a lot of great work there. And if certain voters can’t get past the idea of giving a win to a “Barbie” movie, “Poor Things” is a solid choice here.

 

Animated Feature Film

Nominations

- “The Boy and the Heron” - Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki (Studio Ghibli)

- “Elemental” - Peter Sohn and Denise Ream (Pixar)

- “Nimona” - Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary (Annapurna Pictures)

- “Robot Dreams” - Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz (Multiple Production Companies)

- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” - Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal (Sony Pictures Animation)

Will Win

- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” - Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal (Sony Pictures Animation)

Should Win

- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” - Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal (Sony Pictures Animation)

 

This was a bit of a race for a while. One that seemed to be swinging the way of “The Boy and the Heron” after it came out. But recent trends see “Spider-Man” taking the moment back. And from what I hear, that might be a case of the team behind “The Boy and the Heron” not caring too much to campaign their movie. I’m not the insider on that, but that’s one podcast episode I listened to mentioned. I’m not basing my prediction on that statement. I’m mostly looking at what wins each movie has had recently and “Spider-Man” has had most of them. Thus that insight kinda makes sense. This is a fantastic category, though. “Robot Dreams” is one of those movies that met the minimum qualifications to be eligible, but isn’t being released theatrically until May, which is weird. I’ve heard great things, but we’ll see. The others, though, were all pretty high on my end of year list. Which would normally make this is a hard personal choice because I love all of them. But “Across the Spider-Verse” was my No. 1 of the year, so there’s not exactly much of a debate in that realm. Animated sequels don’t often do well in this category, but this seems like it’s going to be an exception to that.

 

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominations

- “American Fiction” - Cord Jefferson

- “Barbie” - Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach

- “Oppenheimer” - Christopher Nolan

- “Poor Things” - Tony McNamara

- “The Zone of Interest” - Jonathan Glazer

Will Win

- “American Fiction” - Cord Jefferson

Should Win

- “Barbie” - Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach

 

And now for the big ones. The screenplay awards have seemed to recently become a place to give wins to slightly smaller movies that aren’t winning the big awards. That’s not always the case. But “American Fiction” seems like a movie that was made to win said screenplay award. I wasn’t as high on it personally, but I know a lot of people who love it and it’s literally a movie about a writer, so it kinda makes sense. Honestly, though, I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see any of these movies get their name read, so I’m not very confident in this pick. I also had a tough time sitting down and analyzing in my brain which of these had the better writing. There’s solid cases both ways. But you’ll probably not be surprised to see me lean “Barbie” here.

 

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominations

- “Anatomy of a Fall” - Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

- “The Holdovers” - David Hemingson

- “Maestro” - Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer

- “May December” - Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik

- “Past Lives” - Celine Song

Will Win

- “Anatomy of a Fall” - Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

Should Win

- “Anatomy of a Fall” - Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

 

“Anatomy of a Fall” is a movie that, despite not having been submitted by France as their international pick, is one that has a lot of support from a lot of people. It did get five nominations. It’s tough competition here from “Oppenheimer” and “The Holdovers,” with “Past Lives” being a dark horse. But it does seem like the place where “Anatomy of a Fall” gets it’s win, especially since Justine Triet has given wonderful speeches in previous awards shows this season. I think that helps. For me personally, I thought really hard between “Anatomy of a Fall” and “Past Lives.” I love them both and I would be happy to see either get a win. But if I’m looking at it really closely, I think “Anatomy of a Fall” is helped mostly by the writing, while “Past Lives” is very much an acting vehicle that makes it connect. So that’s how I made my decision.

 

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominations

- Emily Blunt - “Oppenheimer”

- Danielle Brooks - “The Color Purple”

- America Ferrera - “Barbie”

- Jodie Foster - “Nyad”

- Da’Vine Joy Randolph - “The Holdovers”

Will Win

- Da’Vine Joy Randolph - “The Holdovers”

Should Win

- Jodie Foster - “Nyad”

 

It seems like there’s at least one acting category each year where someone pretty much gets anointed beforehand as the person who is going to win literally every single award. And that person this year has been Da’Vine Joy Randolph. She’s won everything. She will win the Oscar. There’s no debate. It would be one of the biggest shockers in Oscar history if they read someone else. And I think the moment this was decided was the moment Lily Gladstone got campaigned and nominated for lead actress. And Da’Vine gives a great performance. I have no issue with her winning and being the representative for her movie, which is a very lovely, heartwarming movie. But when I consider all these performances, I think Jodie Foster gives the best performance. And I’m not one to care for how many times someone has or hasn’t won. I would vote for the best performance, even if they have won twice.

 

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominations

- Sterling K. Brown - “American Fiction”

- Robert de Niro - “Killers of the Flower Moon”

- Robert Downey Jr. - “Oppenheimer”

- Ryan Gosling - “Barbie”

- Mark Ruffalo - “Poor Things”

Will Win

- Robert Downey Jr. - “Oppenheimer”

Should Win

- Ryan Gosling - “Barbie”

 

This is another category that is also actually kinda over. The difference between this category and the supporting actress category is that people thought this would be an intense race. Ryan Gosling was expecting to rack up a few wins and make this a suspenseful Oscar moment. But then Robert Downey Jr. simply just won everything. So he’s going to win the Oscar. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Ryan Gosling got his name called, but neither actor has an Oscar win yet and this year just seems like it’s RDJ’s year. He’s been waiting longer for this and sometimes that’s just how it goes. Again, for me I don’t personally take that into consideration. I just go my favorite performance. And I thought about this one for a long time, but I do think I liked Ryan Gosling a bit more and I do think it would bring me more joy to see him win, given how great he was as Ken. But I have no problem with an RDJ win. Everyone loves him, me included.

 

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominations

- Annette Bening - “Nyad”

- Lily Gladstone - “Killers of the Flower Moon”

- Sandra Hüller - “Anatomy of a Fall”

- Carey Mulligan - “Maestro”

- Emma Stone - “Poor Things”

Will Win

- Lily Gladstone - “Killers of the Flower Moon”

Should Win

- Lily Gladstone - “Killers of the Flower Moon”

 

In regards to the acting categories, this one is the most intense of the night. Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone have been battling all season for this award and I don’t really know whose name will be read. I wouldn’t be surprised at either. I’m going with the SAG winner, though. And that was Lily. And based on me watching these other award shows, it appears that no one would be happier with a Lily win than Emma. Just watch her reactions to Lily winning. And it’s a win that I decided that I do want to happen. I don’t know all the statistics with Native American actors and awards, but if it’s happened, it hasn’t happened very much. And I don’t know if it’s happened in this particular category. So it’s good history to happen. I also simply just loved her subtle performance. There was no big moment in the movie where you’d say “That’s her Oscar clip.” But she outshined everyone in that movie, Leo and de Niro included, mostly with her expressions and non-verbal acting. My personal second choice that I was debating between was her and Annette Bening. Emma was great, too. But if you couldn’t tell, I really enjoyed “Nyad.” Annette Bening and Jodie Foster were both excellent.

 

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominations

- Bradley Cooper - “Maestro”

- Colman Domingo - “Rustin”

- Paul Giamatti - “The Holdovers”

- Cillian Murphy - “Oppenheimer”

- Jeffrey Wright - “American Fiction”

Will Win

- Cillian Murphy - “Oppenheimer”

Should Win

- Cillian Murphy - “Oppenheimer”

 

Lead actor has been on quite the roller coaster this season. I got out of “Oppenheimer” thinking that Cillian Murphy NEEDS to win the Oscar. It was the performance of the year for me from an actor that I’ve loved for a long time now that I’ve been waiting for him to get his due. When the season began, people thought that Bradley Cooper was going to have his year to finally win. Then Paul Giamatti started to win awards, leading people to think it was his year. And although I imagine vote tallies will be close in this, Cillian ended up getting the wins that he needed, specifically at SAG, that makes it feel like this race is now done. I wouldn’t be totally surprised to hear Paul Giamatti be called. It would be a great win and he’ll give a wonderful speech. But I do like how things have seemingly settled on the right course of action. In the year of “Oppenheimer,” you can’t let it sweep the Oscars and NOT give the man who played Oppenheimer the award. He literally made the movie work.

 

Directing

Nominations

- Justine Triet - “Anatomy of a Fall”

- Martin Scorsese - “Killers of the Flower Moon”

- Christopher Nolan - “Oppenheimer”

- Yorgos Lanthimos - “Poor Things”

- Jonathan Glazer - “The Zone of Interest”

Will Win

- Christopher Nolan - “Oppenheimer” 

Should Win

- Christopher Nolan - “Oppenheimer”

Speaking of people being annointed beforehand to win everything. Christopher Nolan is winning. And it’s about time, too. I’d argue he should’ve already won at least one for “Inception,” if not for something like “Memento” or “The Dark Knight” as well. The fact that he doesn’t have a win yet is crazy. And “Oppenheimer” is not just a career win. It’s a deserving win for one of his best movies. It’s going to happen. And we will all cheer. If Greta Gerwig had actually gotten in, maybe it would’ve been a harder personal choice for me. But yeah, give Nolan his Oscar.

 

Best Picture

Nominations

- “American Fiction” - Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers  (Amazon MGM Studios)

- “Anatomy of a Fall” - Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers (Le Pacte)

- “Barbie” - David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers (Warner Bros.)

- “The Holdovers” - Mark Johnson, Producer (Focus Features)

- “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers (Paramount Pictures & Apple Original Films)

- “Maestro” - Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Krisstie Macosko Krieger, Producers (Netflix)

- “Oppenheimer” - Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers (Universal Pictures)

- “Past Lives” - David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Palema Koffler, Producers (A24)

- “Poor Things” - Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers (Searchlight Pictures)

- “The Zone of Interest” - James Wilson, Producer (A24)

Will Win

- “Oppenheimer” - Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers (Universal Pictures)

Should Win

- “Barbie” - David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers (Warner Bros.)

Most years there is a certain level of suspense going into the final award of the night. Even last year with “Everything Everywhere” looking like it would take the win, there was still a certain level of uncertainty. But not here. The biggest award of the night might be the easiest one to predict. I don’t even know what the upset would be. Maybe “Poor Things”? But this is ranked choice and oftentimes it means I overthink this, but in this case I think that doesn’t even matter because I don’t know how many people dislike “Oppenheimer.” I’m sure it’s top three on most ballots. And it’s a great win. I ranked all of the best picture nominees. Head over to my Letterboxd to see that list. “Barbie” is my favorite of the nominees. “Past Lives” is my second choice, actually. But then “Oppenheimer” is third. And all three made my year-end list of favorite movies, along with “Anatomy of a Fall” and “Killers of the Flower Moon.” So it’s a great year for this category.

But yeah, that means I have “Oppenheimer” going home with eight Oscars, followed by “Poor Things” with three and “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Barbie,” “The Holdovers,” “American Fiction,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest” all getting one each. Of the best picture nominees, I have “Maestro” and “Past Lives” going home empty. “Maestro” going home empty and “Barbie” only getting one feels wrong. But I don’t know what to change at this point, so I’m not. I’ll take the L on that, wherever it is.

Agree? Disagree? Let me know what your thoughts on this ceremony is, especially if you’re one who made it this far on this post.

Movie Preview: March 2024

I mentioned at the beginning of last month’s preview that after a very empty January, February seemed ready to get the ball rolling for 2024. Whoops. That didn’t happen. Although I suppose unlike January not having a very large quantity of releases, February did at least have a decent quantity of movies that were put in theaters, they just didn’t do anything to “get the ball rolling.” The one bright spot was the over-performance of “Bob Marley: One Love,” which made $51.5 million in that opening six-day frame from Valentine’s to President’s Day. The rest? Well, “Argylle” and “Madame Web” both failed spectacularly, plagued by toxic reviews. And the rest of the smaller releases were barely a blip on the radar. And even though “Bob Marley” did well, in a month that has shown the ability to have success with movies like “Deadpool” and “Black Panther,” if your highest grossing movie of the month has made just $71.1 million after its second weekend, that’s a not a good sign for the month.

Even though I feel like a broken record in saying that March will actually get the ball rolling for 2024 - it’s the boy who cried wolf at this point, it seems - I actually do have confidence that this will actually happen. There’s a little thing called “Dune: Part Two” that starts the month off and another little thing called “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” that will finish the month off. I’m not saying everything is going to be a smash hit this month, but there seems to be more of a safe floor for success here with those two, as well as a few others sandwiched between, so let’s check it out!

 As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of boxofficepro.com and the-numbers.com. The movies listed are the ones currently scheduled for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are always subject to change.

March 1 - 3

Warner Bros.' "Dune: Part Two"

As mentioned in the intro, the box office is set to get a massive kick of adrenaline in the first weekend of March with the debut of Dune: Part Two. As this point, “Dune” doesn’t require a whole lot of introduction. Frank Herbert’s original novel from 1965 is one of the most popular science fiction novels ever. Herbert went on to write a total of six “Dune” novels before his death in 1986, after which his son Brian Herbert teamed up with science fiction writer Kevin J. Anderson to write a whole bunch more. That means there’s plenty of lore for Warner Bros. to continue this series for as long as they want. The 2021 movie and it’s sequel here find Denis Villeneuve taking on just the first book, splitting that story into two parts instead of doing what the 1984 David Lynch movie did by attempting to cram the entire novel into one 2 hour 17 minute long movie. Compare that to the two Denis Villeneuve movies combining to be a total of 5 hours 21 minutes, with this weekend’s “Part Two” clocking in just 14 minutes short of three hours on its own. Word on the street is that Villeneuve wants to conclude his dive into this franchise with “Part Three” being his adaptation of “Dune: Messiah.” Although that’s not officially confirmed, I’m sure that will be rather soon if the movie performs as well as it’s expected.

Speaking of which, the financial outlook of this “Part Two” should be an interesting one to follow. The first movie opened to $41 million and made $109.9 million domestically and $434.8 million worldwide, which wasn’t bad for a $165 million budget. Typically you want to see a return of 2-3 times your production budget due to other various costs, including marketing and advertising as well as the theaters keeping a percentage of the total, so that first movie maybe didn’t do quite as well as Warner Bros. was probably hoping, but one also has to take into consideration that it opened in 2021 while the box office was still in recovery and while Warner Bros. was releasing all of it’s movies in theaters and on HBO Max simultaneously, so it feels like there was money left on the table there. The movie was very well received, though, and got nominated for 10 Oscars, winning six of them. So there’s some major hype for this sequel. A current 95 percent score from critics on Rotten Tomatoes for “Part Two” suggests that this will live up to the hype and have great word of mouth going forward. The weekend projection has been in the $60-80 million range, with Box Office Pro officially projecting the high end of that with an $80.9 million opening.

There is technically another release here this weekend, but I talked about it with last month’s preview, so you can go back and read that post for more info. But briefly, the final segment of episodes from The Chosen Season 4 will debut, this being Episodes 7 and 8. The expectation is about $3-5 million for it’s opening. While it’s not a lot, Episodes 1-3 wound up making $13.2 million total in its two week run, with Episodes 4-6 finishing with $8.9 million. That means at the end of the run of Episodes 7-8, Season 4 as a whole will have bagged close to 30 million from its theatrical release alone, before it’s regular streaming release. Even though Angels Studios has plenty of funds from this show at this point, that sum alone would probably be enough to fund a Season 5 on its own, so I’m sure they’re happy with these results.

March 8 - 10

Universal's "Kung Fu Panda 4"

Opening in the second weekend of “Dune: Part Two” is the return of another franchise with Kung Fu Panda 4. Perhaps it wasn’t on your Bingo Card to see this franchise return for a fourth film, but in an attempt for DreamWorks Animation to remain relevant after a rough few years, this latest franchise revival makes sense in that it’s one of their most popular franchises and perhaps their most consistent in terms of audience reaction and financial output. So that means Jack Black is back to voice Po and this adventure finds Po needing to step up and become the new spiritual leader of the Valley of Peace while finding and training a new Dragon Warrior to take his place. In the meantime, he also has to deal with a new villain called the Chameleon who has the ability to conjure up villains from the past. Back in 2008, “Kung Fu Panda” opened to $60.2 million and finished with $215.4 million domestically. The second and third movie, from 2011 and 2016, respectively, both opened the $40 million range. The second movie finished with $165.2 million domestically while the third finished with $143.2 million. So diminished returns are probably expected to continue, especially since it’s been eight years since the last one, but the current projections have it opening in the $30-35 million range, which probably won’t be enough to dethrone “Dune: Part Two,” but it will be another healthy addition to the market.

Next up for this weekend is the horror film Imaginary. Not to be confused with John Krasinski’s upcoming family film called “IF,” which stands for “Imaginary Friends” and releases in May, “Imaginary” is also about… imaginary friends. Except in this movie they’re trying to kill people as opposed to trying to become friends in the Krasinski movie. One of the funny Hollywood coincidences. Specifically here, a woman returns to her childhood home and discovers that her imaginary friend she left behind, which appears from the trailers to be in the form of a teddy bear, is very real and unhappy that she abandoned him. This movie is a Blumhouse production released by Lionsgate and Blumhouse has been historically really good at releasing low budget horror films that find success relative to those budgets. And this one is another of the PG-13 variety, which means it has the potential to attract teenage audiences as well. With a reported budget of just $13 million, if this movie hits its projected opening of $15-20 million, it could make that budget back in just one weekend and be another hit for Blumhouse, regardless of what people think about it.

The third and final wide release of this weekend is the Angel Studios movie Cabrini. Angel Studios has had great success from “The Chosen” in the TV realm and had a huge breakout hit last year in “Sound of Freedom.” The success of those two projects alone will probably continue to fund the rest of their smaller projects for quite a long time. And they’ve already had a few of these. In the post “Sound of Freedom” world, they released “After Death” in October, which opened to $2.2 million and made $11.5 million domestically. A couple of months later in December, they released “The Shift,” which made $4.3 million in its opening and $12.1 million total. This movie tells the story of Francesca Cabrini, an Italian-American Catholic religious sister and saint. After founding the Missionary Sisters of the Sacred Heart of Jesus in 1880, her and a few others immigrated to New York in 1889 in order to help other Italian immigrants in the United States. In 1946, she became the first U.S. citizen to be canonized as a saint by the Catholic Church. Following the pattern of the other two smaller Angel Studios releases, a $2-5 million opening for “Cabrini” is most likely in the cards here.

March 15 - 17

Lionsgate’s "Arthur the King"

After two big franchise films in the first two weeks of the month, the third weekend of March will be a bit of a cool-down week before two more big franchise films in the final two weeks. But there are still three new smaller releases, which will likely be led by Arthur the King. No, this is not another movie adapting the Medieval tale of King Arthur. This is a story about a dog named Arthur, who was found and rescued by an adventure racer named Mikael Lindnord in the midst of a 435-mile endurance race he was on in the Dominican Republic. The dog then continued with him for the entire race. This is based on the book “Arthur - The Dog Who Crossed the Jungle to Find a Home” by Mikael Lindnord himself based on his own experiences. And you know you’ve made it in life when Mark Wahlberg is cast to play you in a film. The movie is directed by Simon Cellan Jones, who has worked mostly in the TV realm, but did direct a movie called “The Family Plan”  for Apple TV+, released this past December, which also starred Mark Wahlberg.

Scheduled for a limited release on March 8 and a planned expansion this week to wide release is the Sundance film Love Lies Bleeding. The three words in that title do a good job of describing three things that happen in this movie. A gym manager falls in love with a body builder. But in the midst of that relationship, there were some lies told that lead to some bleeding. In other words, the couple are dragged deep into the web of Lou’s criminal family, making this part romance and part action thriller. Kristen Stewart plays Lou, the gym manager, while Katy O’Brian plays Jackie, the body builder, with Ed Harris, Jena Malone, and Dave Franco also having roles in the movie. It got positive reaction out of Sundance this year, with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 92 percent with 52 reviews counted, so positive word of mouth could help lead it to be a sleeper hit if general audiences are as high on it as the Sundance audience was. The movie is directed by Rose Glass, who also directed the 2019 horror film “Saint Maud,” which also currently has a 92 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes.

The final movie on the schedule for a wide release is the Anthony Hopkins film One Life. This debuted last year at the Toronto International Film Festival and has since had several international release dates already, but finally hits the United States in what might be a more moderate release rather than a massively wide release. The movie is about Sir Nicholas Winton, a British stockbroker and humanitarian who helped rescue Jewish children who were in risk of being murdered by Nazi Germany during the Holocaust. In total he assisted in the rescue of 669 children from Chechoslovakia on the eve of World War II, helping them find legal homes and sponsors in Britain. The movie stars Anthony Hopkins as an older Nicholas Winton, reflecting back on his accomplishments, with Johnny Flynn playing the younger Nicholas Winton.

March 22 - 24

Sony Pictures' "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire"

If there’s something strange in your neighborhood, who you gonna call? Yep, the Ghostbusters are back in town with Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire. This will be the fifth theatrically released Ghostbusters movie and a direct sequel to “Ghostusters: Afterlife” from 2021, which was in the continuity of the first two 80s movies and thus counted as a “rebootquel,” a movie that was a sequel to the first two, but also rebooted the franchise for a new generation. And it did well enough to justify continuing. Like “Dune,” “Afterlife” also came out at the end of 2021 while the box office was still in recovery mode, but still managed to open to $44 million domestically, legging it out to $129.4 million domestically during the holidays. And now the gang is back and looking at the trailers and the poster, there is a whole lot of ghosts and quite a bit more people in the Ghostbusting squad itself instead of just the traditional group of four. And at least some ghosts are causing a new Ice Age to take place, laying the groundwork for this movie’s conflict. The advertising for the movie has been kicking into full gear, but there doesn’t seem to be quite as much buzz for the movie. Nevertheless, it should be able to at least come close to that $44 million opening of “Afterlife,” even if it’s not likely to do “Dune: Part Two” numbers.

No other new wide releases scheduled for this weekend, but Disney will complete their trio of COVID Pixar re-releases with Luca getting its first ever theatrical release at the domestic box office. But like the other two, “Soul” and “Turning Red,” I’m not sure what the awareness or interest level is for this. “Soul” was re-released for two weeks back in January in 1,350 theaters and made $946,154 total. “Turning Red” actually did slightly better, but in its two weeks in February from 1,560 theaters it made $1.4 million total. I imagine “Luca” will also be somewhere in that realm. This is probably not what Disney was hoping for with this, but I’m also not quite sure what they expected. All three of these movies should’ve been released in theaters when they first came out and not gone straight to Disney+. And expecting people to show up 2-3 years later in theaters when they can watch for free at home does not seem reasonable, nor does it make-up for mistakes of the past.

March 29 - 31

Warner Bros.' "Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire"

Finishing off the month, also as mentioned in the intro of this post, is Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. Straight off the bat, addressing the elephant in the room before we get any further, possibly the biggest obstacle this movie might have to face is the fact that Japan released “Godzilla Minus One” at the end of last year. Even though “Minus One” didn’t make as much domestically as the recent American Godzilla movies, the reaction to it was so positive that it set a new bar for what a Godzilla movie can accomplish, which will put a lot of pressure on “The New Empire.” That aside, the American Godzilla and Kong movies, coined simply as the MonsterVerse, have done fairly well for themselves. After their personal showdown in 2021’s “Godzilla vs. Kong,” the two monsters appear to be teaming up together to fighting an even bigger Kong in “The New Empire.” Financially, 2014’s “Godzilla” opened to $93.2 million, so that’s the potential ceiling of possibilities for this franchise, although each ensuing entry has seen diminishing returns. In 2021, “Godzilla vs. Kong” opened to just $32.2 million, although like “Dune” and “Ghostbusters: Afterlife,” it was again during the COVID recovery phase, but this time in early 2021. Like “Dune,” it was also a day-and-date streaming release on HBO Max. Due to those factors, it barely crossed the $100 million mark domestically in its final run, with $100.9 million. If “The New Empire” can’t manage to have a significant improvement on those numbers, we might have issues. All that said, “Godzilla vs. Kong” did wind up making a total of $468 million worldwide, so those international numbers are the biggest reason why we’re seeing another sequel and could very easily rescue this franchise again.

The final movie coming out in wide release this weekend is In the Land of Saints and Sinners, which is the latest in a very long string of low-budget, low-quality Liam Neeson action thrillers, this one from the same director as the 2021 movie “The Marksman.” Since 2020 alone, this is the 7th theatrically released movie of this style from Neeson. Different names. Different characters. A rotation of directors. Pretty much the same movie. And, hey, if Neeson is enjoying this, then all power to him. But the last four, which were released in 2022 and 2023 - “Blacklight,” “Memory,” “Marlowe” and “Retribution” - all opened to less than $5 million and made less than $10 million total domestically. I wouldn’t expect much to change for this one. The specific premise here is that a damaged father in an Irish village is forced to fight for redemption after a life of sins. Yep. Sound familiar?