And speaking of that list, following two Venom movies at third and fourth (“Venom: Let There be Carnage” with $90.0 million and “Venom” with $80.3 million), “Five Nights at Freddy’s” is now fifth on that all-time October openings list with $80.0 million. So having two all-time October openings in one month is very impressive. But yeah, everything else just cleared the way for these two movies, which makes the overall total a tad bit low despite that.
A dip like this is pretty normal, though, for this time of the year - down over half from the billion dollar summer months. November, though? It’s the holidays and that’s where things start going back up. One additional variable here that has definitely had an effect on the box office is the ongoing actor’s strike. While everyone hopes it’s resolved soon, with a deal that the actors are happy with, not having actors available to work not only effects a lot of movies next year that have delayed due to them unable to finish filming, but some studios have elected to push other finished movies back a bit so that they can have their cast available to help promote their movie. And that has impacted November in a very large Dune-sized way that we’ll get into more in the first weekend section, but there’s still plenty of other titles hitting theaters, especially as we get closer to Thanksgiving, so let’s jump in and see what November has to offer!
As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of boxofficepro.com and the-numbers.com. The movies listed are the ones currently scheduled for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are always subject to change.
November 3 – 5
As referenced in the intro to this post, this initial
weekend has a very Dune-sized hole in it. The previous “Dune” wasn’t actually a
massive box office hit. It had a domestic opening of $41.0 million and finished
with $108.3 million. The worldwide total wound up being $391.8 million, so it’s
not like the movie was a failure on its $165 million budget, but for a massive
sci-fi epic based on a very popular novel, Warner Bros. was probably expecting
a tad bit more? The reaction was very positive and the movie wound up with 10
Oscar nominations, winning six of them. So “Dune: Part Two” is expected to be
much bigger, and given that Warner Bros. kinda needs it to be much bigger to
justify continuing the franchise by adapting “Dune Messiah,” it kinda makes
sense for them to wait until the likes of Zendaya and and Timothee Chalamet are
available to help promote the film. So the movie got pushed to March.
A24’s "Priscilla"
In the meantime, it would’ve made sense for something to move up into this spot to kick off the holiday season. At the very least, “The Marvels” moving up a week to give it extra time before the Thanksgiving rush would’ve made a lot of sense. But that didn’t happen. Instead, “Five Nights at Freddy’s” is poised for a second box office win, even though it is expected to have a massive fall from its $80 million opening. Granted, most horror films tank hard in their second weekend, but this one seemed to be especially boosted by fans of the franchise, which usually is an indication of heavy frontloaded. But still, a second weekend in the $20-30 million range is an easy No. 1 hold when there’s no competition.
The highest profile new release of the available options is the nationwide expansion of the movie Priscilla. We’re on a bit of an Elvis Presley kick in Hollywood right now, especially after the musical biopic “Elvis” was a massive success. “Priscilla” tells the story from the vantage point of… Priscilla Presley, Elvis’ ex-wife, who serves as an executive producer on the film. The movie is directed by Sofia Coppola, daughter of Francis Ford Coppola, director of the first two Godfather films. Sofia over the years has made a name for herself in the film industry instead of just being the daughter of one of the most famous film directors as in 2003 she was a triple nominee at the Oscars for writing, directing, and best picture for her movie “Lost in Translation,” winning her Oscar for best original screenplay. “Priscilla” is thought to be a potential Oscar player and so far has decent response. It’s done very well in limited release and has an 86 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, and played well at the festival circuit. Whether or not that translates to mainstream success is a different story. “Dumb Money” had similar success in September, but only opened to $2.4 million in its nationwide expansion. “Priscilla” will be opening in 1,450 theaters and is expected to earn $5-8 million.
There are two other moderate releases vying for adult audience’s attention. In 1,492 theaters, Bleeker Street will be playing What Happens Later, which sees the return of Meg Ryan to a new romantic comedy. She plays a girl who ends up snowed-in at an airport overnight with one of her ex-lovers, played by David Duchovny. Meg Ryan is, of course, most known for other rom-coms such as “When Harry Met Sally…,” “You’ve Got Mail” and “Sleepless in Seattle,” so this return could easily be a nostalgic play for those who are fans of her previous work. Not only does she star in the movie, but she’s also directing this one, which is only her second time directing a feature-length movie after directed the 2015 movie “Ithaca.”
The other moderate release will be Roadside Attractions releasing the movie The Marsh King’s Daughter in 1,055 theaters. Perhaps this is not from as notable of a filmmaker as Sofia Coppola or Meg Ryan, but this is from Neil Burger, director of “Limitless,” “Divergent” and “Voyagers.” The actual draw might be the cast of Daisy Ridley and Ben Mendelsohn, or perhaps someone who is in the mood for a crime drama instead of a romantic comedy or historical biopic as this is about a woman, played by Daisy Ridley, who is out seeking for revenge against the man who kidnapped her mother. Neither “What Happens Later” or “The Marsh King’s Daughter” is expected to debut in the top five, but both will be fighting for a spot in the top 10.
November 10 – 12
After a quiet initial weekend, at least for most, the second
weekend of November is where things will start to kick into gear as Marvel
Studios will be releasing the 33rd movie in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Nia
DaCosta’s The Marvels, this being the sequel to the massive 2019
hit, “Captain Marvel.” This is not just the next solo adventure of Captain
Marvel, though, as this sees Marvel do what they enjoy doing the most, a
team-up film to fight a big baddie. Roped into this adventure are a couple of
characters from the Disney+ shows, Monica Rambeau from “WandaVision” and Kamala
Khan from “Ms. Marvel,” played by Teyonah Parris and Iman Vellani, respectively.
And, of course, it wouldn’t be a Marvel movie with another appearance from
Samuel L. Jackson as Nick Fury. Our villain here is a character named Dar-Benn,
played by Zawe Ashton, and she has the powers of Carol, Monica, and Kamala all
entangled, hence the forced team-up to stop her. This movie is not from the
directors of the initial “Captain Marvel,” but sees Nia DaCosta take over, she
most notably being the director of the 2021 “Candyman” reboot, which was a
pretty decent success.
Marvel's "The Marvels"
The biggest question in regards to “The Marvels” is how well is this actually going to do. And while many are championing the idea that Marvel is dead and that no one cares, especially in regards to a Captain Marvel sequel that no one wants, it’s worth reminding people that, in the midst of a heavy internet campaign to tank the first movie, the movie opened to $153.4 million and finished with $426.8 million domestically and $1.129 billion worldwide. That said, it’s also worth noting that “Avengers: Endgame” came out a month later and provided a massive boost to the movie. People were wanting to make sure they were caught up before seeing “Endgame.” Yes, things have changed a lot since 2019 for Marvel, and Captain Marvel isn’t necessarily the most popular character. The team-up idea might bounce off many who skipped “Ms. Marvel,” which was one of the lowest viewed Disney+ Marvel series. So yes, there’s a lot going against this movie, especially with no Avengers movie next month. But to those who claim that the MCU is dead, the most recent MCU release was “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” and that did very well. And, believe it or not, we’re on a streak of six straight MCU releases to open above $100 million. So is the MCU really dead? I say no, even if it is more vulnerable than in the past.
All that said, the expectation is on the lower end of MCU releases, perhaps in the $50-75 million range. The lowest opening is still “The Incredible Hulk” with $55.4 million. While a handful of other early MCU films also fell in that range, maybe a more recent comparison might be “The Eternals” at $71.3 million, “Shang-Chi” at $75.4 million, or “Black Widow” at $80.4 million. Granted, those still aren’t perfect comparisons as that was a part of the COVID recovery phase, but nevertheless that’s still about the expectation here.
There is competition for “The Marvels.” Well… kinda. Opening in what’s expected to be about 1,800 theaters (“The Marvels” will be in around 4,000) is Sony getting a head start on the Christmas season with Journey to Bethlehem. Yes, this is a retelling of the classic Christmas story, the birth of Jesus. That’s easy to discern from the title. The spin here is that this is a musical version of that, described as weaving classic Christmas melodies with humor, faith, and new pop songs. The movie is directed by Adam Anders, a first time director, and written by him and Peter Barsocchini. Anders has been a writer and producer on a variety of projects, but has mainly worked in the musical department, while Barscocchini is most notable for being the writer for “High School Musical” and its sequels, which, yes, is one of the musical departments that Anders helped with. So a musical version of the story of Jesus from the people who worked on High School Musical? That’s certainly a curious combination.
The other notable release this weekend is the expansion of Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers. Similar to the aforementioned “Priscilla” and “Dumb Money,” this was another festival movie that just had its platform debut in New York and Los Angeles at the end of October. While those two had a decent response from festivals and critics that might not translate into awards play and go somewhat unnoticed by mainstream audiences, “The Holdovers” might be a very different story. It had an excellent response from festivals and has a 96 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes, and is currently seen as an awards frontrunner. And it has a premise that could actually play very well with mainstream audiences, especially around the Christmas season. Paul Giamatti plays a grumpy, older instructor at a New England prep school who has to remain on Campus during Christmas break with people who have nowhere to go, including a troublemaker played by newcomer Dominic Sessa and the school’s head nurse, played by Da’Vine Joy Randolph, who has recently lost a son in Vietnam. Maybe this won’t have a massive opening in its expansion this weekend, but it should be a decent word of mouth hit that plays well over the whole holiday season.
November 17 – 19
A week after “The Marvels” hits theaters sees a very busy
pre-Thanksgiving with quite the allotment of movies hoping to get holiday
attention. Leading the way will be what might feel like a trip to about a
decade ago with The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes.
While the first Hunger Games movie was a March release in 2012, the other three
that followed were on this exact weekend in consecutive years, the weekend
before Thanksgiving, a slot that other YA movie adaptations such as Harry
Potter and Twilight also had success in. All four Hunger Games movies opened
north of $100 million, making it easily Lionsgate’s most lucrative franchise.
Thus it makes sense that when Suzanne Collins decided to write another book,
released in 2020, Lionsgate immediately started production on making that a
movie. This is a prequel that takes us back to the 10th Hunger Games, following
Coriolanus Snow as the main protagonist, who 64 years later becomes the main
antagonist of President Snow in the main trilogy of books.
Lionsgate’s "The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes"
The biggest question on this one is do people want to go back into the world of the Hunger Games? While yes, all four previous movies opened above $100 million, the third and fourth movie had diminishing returns compared to the first and second. And looking at the even bigger picture, this genre of a YA Dystopian movies adapted from books is one that kinda died. Many tried to follow Hunger Games. Most failed. And even initial popular movies like Divergent failed so hard that they couldn’t even justify finishing the series. So if interest in the genre as a whole died off, are people going to care to come back? Perhaps a recent comparison is the Fantastic Beasts spin-off of the Harry Potter franchise. While that spin-off series started off decently enough, the most recent one last year opened to $42.2 million, finishing with $95.9 million domestically, a final domestic total that is lower than many of the previous opening weekends in the franchise. If the expected $35-50 million that Box Office Pro is currently projecting pans out for “Songbirds & Snakes,” this might be the final swan song of the franchise.
Onto the other movies of the weekend, though, DreamWorks Animation is putting their name back in the hat with Trolls Band Together, the third movie in the popular Trolls franchise. It also marks the franchise’s return to theaters after “Trolls World Tour” got COVIDed out of theaters and decided to go straight to PVOD. Although official numbers weren’t available, Universal at the time boasted that the movie played excellent on PVOD. On top of that, the initial movie remains super popular, so it makes sense for DreamWorks to continue the franchise. Speaking of DreamWorks, they just recently suffered their most abysmal release with “Rudy Gillman, Teenage Kraken” being completely dead on arrival this summer, opening to $5.5 million and finishing with $15.7 million. But their release right before that was a massive success. “Puss and Boots: The Last Wish” only opened to $12.4 million, but legged all the way out to $185.5 million. If “Trolls Band Together” can put together a weekend of $20-30 million, then hold well throughout Thanksgiving and Christmas, that’ll be a win for DreamWorks. It does have some Disney competition literally five days after its release, but we’ll get to that in a second. Anna Kendrick and Justin Timberlake return for this sequel. And speaking of Timberlake, his band *NSYNC also reunited for the first time in 20 years to write a song for this movie, titled “Better Place.” That’s certainly notable.
This weekend provides something for pretty much everyone as Eli Roth has a treat for horror fans with his new slasher flick themed for the holiday and titled simply Thanksgiving. While on the surface this may seem like a run of the mill slasher flick, and while viewing the movie that might the end result, this nevertheless has a more interesting backstory on how it came to be. In 2007 there was a movie called “Grindhouse,” a movie presented as a double feature of Robert Rodriguez’s “Planet Terror” and Quentin Tarantino’s “Death Proof.” As a part of the experience, there were a handful of fictional movie trailers for fake films. One of those fake movies was a slasher film called “Thanksgiving,” directed by Eli Roth, who directed the fake trailer. Fast forward 16 years and now we have an actual movie based on the fake movie trailer. “Grindhouse” fans have been hoping for a long time that this would become an actual reality. And now they have their wish. Eli Roth’s shtick is usually very bloody, graphic horror films that land in the “torture porn” or “splatter fest” subgenre of horror, so this is definitely not going to be for the faint of heart, but rather a fun, niche surprise for “Grindhouse” fans.
Rounding out this weekend is an indie sports drama from a little known director named Taika Waititi, presenting his new movie Next Goal Wins. OK, yes, that introduction was a bit tongue-in-cheek. But before Taika directed two Thor movies, “Ragnarok” and “Love and Thunder,” while also being involved a bit with “The Mandalorian,” smaller indie films were what Taika did best. Yes, “Jojo Rabbit” happened in between Thor films, but before that was “What We Do in the Shadows” and “Hunt for the Wilderpeople,” two movies that have been discovered more in the years since Taika directed “Ragnarok.” With “Next Goal Wins,” Taika steps away from the big blockbuster, at least for a bit, to go back to his roots with a smaller film. The movie tells the story of the infamously terrible American Samoa soccer team, in which they lost a FIFA match in 2021 by a score of 31-0. Michael Fassbender in the movie plays a new coach who comes in to try to help them at least be able to score a goal. While the movie isn’t expected to be an Oscar player like “Jojo Rabbit” was, it nevertheless has the potential to be a solid feel-good movie over the holidays for those interested in a sports drama or curious about Taika’s next film.
November 22 – 26
Advancing five days into the future, movies opening on the
week of Thanksgiving open on a Wednesday instead of a Friday, hence the longer
date span here. And while all the movies from the previous weekend are still
going to be in play, Disney enters into the ring with their new animated movie Wish.
On October 16, 1923, Walt Disney Studios was founded by two brothers, Walt and
Roy Disney, initially as the Disney Brothers Studio. I bring this up, not
necessarily for a history lesson that everyone already knows, but to point out
that Disney this year has been celebrating 100 years of Disney and “Wish” seems
very much tied into that as a movie about a new 17-year-old female protagonist
named Asha who makes a passionate plea to the stars when she senses a darkness
in the Kingdom that others might not see. All of that feels perfectly aligned
with classic Disney as a tribute to Disney of old. And while not reverting
completely to a classic hand-drawn animation style, this is nevertheless a
combination of modern computer animation with Disney’s historical watercolor
animation. And yes, it’s also a new Disney musical, led by Chris Buck, Jennifer
Lee, and others who worked with Disney on “Frozen.”
Disney’s "Wish"
Disney certainly has been very mortal at the box office of late. COVID combined with the hard push for Disney+ trained much of their audience to not show up to theaters for their animated movies, both from Pixar and Walt Disney Animation Studios, but rather to wait for Disney+. In the year or two since the initial huge streaming push, studios have learned again that theaters and not streaming is what makes them the most money, yet it’s been hard for Disney in their attempt to retrain their audience to go back to theaters. Last year for Disney Animation Studios, which is where “Wish” specifically comes from, “Strange World” opened to just $12.2 million, while in 2021 “Encanto” opened to just $27.2 million, before it later became a Disney+ phenomenon. And that’s not even mentioning the struggles of Pixar, who saw several movies in a row skip theaters altogether and is still recovering from that. But in pre-COVID days, this Thanksgiving slot has been very good for Disney. In 2013, “Frozen” opened to $93.9 million over the 5-day, “Moana” in 2016 to $82.1 million, and “Ralph Breaks the Internet” in 2019 to $84.8 million. The traditional 3-day opening (Friday to Sunday after Thanksgiving) for the latter two were both in the $56 million range, which is about where Box Office Pro projects “Wish,” with a $40-60 million 3-day range, which would probably translate to a $60-80 million range for the 5-day. And long legs throughout the holidays at the box office if it’s a popular hit.
As you’ve seen, it’s primed to be quite the varied selection of options for Thanksgiving. Along with everything else, Ridley Scott will also be joining the party with his new movie Napoleon. This one is one of the wild cards of the month as no one really knows exactly what to expect. Ridley Scott is a very prominent filmmaker with movies like “Alien,” “Blade Runner,” “Gladiator,” “Black Hawk Down” and “The Martian” on his resume. But recently you don’t know if you’re going to get another classic like this or something that’s almost universally disliked. “Napoleon” could realistically go either way. With Joaquin Phoenix as Napoleon Bonaparte and Vanessa Kirby as Empress Josephine, it could be an excellent historical war drama that becomes a sleeper hit. Or it could wind up as a dud. With poor word of mouth, it could be a blip on the radar. As an awards hopeful, what it did NOT do was play the festival circuits, then do a limited run theatrically. That could be seen as a red flag. It’s also not yet had any pre-screenings for critics. But maybe it ends up being a good crowd pleaser for mainstream audiences while not really caring about playing the awards game?
The final movie that I’ll be mentioning here is one that,
unlike “Napoleon,” HAS played the awards game. And that’s Emerald Fennell’s Saltburn.
This is Fennell’s second directorial feature following “Promising Young Woman”
in 2020, which vaulted her onto the scene in an impressive way. Granted it was
2020, so the awards season that year was slimmer pickings, but the movie
nevertheless managed five Oscar nominations, including a best picture nominee
and an original screenplay win for Fennell. Fans of the movie have been curious
to see what she comes up with next and “Saltburn” apparently a very out-there
film that’s wild and crazy, certainly a movie that’s not for everyone. It’s
about an Oxford student who is drawn in by a classmate into said classmate’s
eccentric family estate. It debuted at the Telluride Film Festival in late
August and hit several other festivals along the way. It currently holds an 81
percent Rotten Tomatoes score from those who have seen it. It’s slated for its
limited release on November 17 before starting its nationwide expansion on
November 22. Barry Keoghan is the lead in the movie.
