Of note, I did not get around to making this post for last month. My deepest apologies for that. I did post an abbreviated version on my personal Facebook in the middle of the month, but not anything that gets saved in the archives of this blog. Nevertheless, November was a month wherein “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” dominated, as expected. It may not have gone quite as high as I personally would’ve thought, but a $180 million domestic opening is nothing to sneeze at. It’s on track to cross the $500 million mark domestically before its run is over, which is always an impressive feat.
Outside “Wakanda Forever,” nothing really broke out. Disney experienced one of their worst flops with “Strange World.” Netflix left a lot of money on the table with “Glass Onion.” Sony’s “Devotion” failed to take flight. Meanwhile, “One Piece Film: Red” and “The Menu” wound up as decent mid-range options, while “She Said,” “The Fabelmans,” “Bones and All” and “The Inspection” all officially entered the theatrical market with hopes for awards love. Audiences haven’t yet flocked to any of those, but they’re all looking to play the long game with the awards season, so all is not lost as of yet. One big sleeper on the month was not even a movie at all, but the first two episodes of season 3 of “The Chosen” were released in theaters and wound up with an impressive $13 million so far.
So that’s your brief recap of what ended up happening in November. Looking ahead to December, after audiences visited Wakanda in November they’ll now finally get a return to Pandora, which should dominate most headlines this month. But there will be plenty of other options that will hopefully look to make at least more of an impact than some of the November releases, with plenty of final Oscar hopefuls at least getting their Oscar qualifying run in added into the mix, so with at least plenty to talk about, let’s dive in!
As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of boxofficepro.com and the-numbers.com. The movies listed are the ones currently scheduled for theatrical release in the United States and Canada and are always subject to change.
December 2 – 4
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| Universal's "Violent Night" |
While “Wakanda Forever” is likely to take its fourth weekend at No. 1, “Violent Night” hopes to play like “Krampus,” another unconventional Christmas movie that opened on the first weekend of December in 2015. “Krampus” opened to $16.3 million and legged it out to $42.7 million domestically in its final run. Box Office Pro is officially projecting a $9.8 million opening weekend.
While “Violent Night” is the only new wide release of the weekend, two notable awards hopefuls will be hitting limited release. The first is the controversial return of Will Smith in Emancipation. This movie sees Will Smith play a runaway slave and is directed by Antoine Fuqua. Normally coming off of an Oscar win, this would be the perfect way to follow up for a potential back-to-back Oscar push. But as most of the world knows, Will’s win was overshadowed by what is now known as “the slap.” Some thought that “Emancipation” would be pushed into 2023 because of this, but Apple decided to go ahead with it this year, anyways. After its limited run this weekend, which may eventually see it expand to more theaters, the movie is scheduled to debut on Apple TV+ the following weekend on December 9.
The other limited release of this weekend is romantic comedy/drama Spoiler Alert. This tells the true story of Michael Ausellio, a TV journalist who was the founder and editor-in-chief of tvline.com, and his husband Kit Cowan, who suffered from a rare form of neuroendocrine cancer. The movie is based off of Ausellio’s 2017 memoir, “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies: A Memoir of Love, Loss, and Other Four-Letter Words,” which chronicled their love and relationship. Ausellio and Cowan in the movie are played by Jim Parsons and Ben Aldridge, respectively, and the movie is directed by Michael Showalter, director of “The Big Sick.” After its limited release this weekend, it’s scheduled for a nationwide expansion the next week.
December 9 – 11
The second weekend of
December is poised to be a very light one. The calm before the storm, one might
say, which should lead “Wakanda Forever” to get a fifth weekend at No. 1,
barring a major over-performance of “Violent Night.” There’s only one new wide
release this weekend and it’s not really a “new” release, but it’s Father
Stu: Reborn. This is a PG-13 re-release of “Father Stu,” which
initially opened in April of this year. After opening to just $5.4 million, it
wound up having a fairly leggy run, finishing with $20.7 million domestically.
It had an even leggier run in its post-theatrical run, both in PVOD and when it
was added to Netflix in September. I suppose the goal of this re-release is to
attract a younger, family audience over the Christmas season that did not see
the movie due to its harsher R rating. It’s not expected to make a huge impact.
It would be a surprise if it made more than its initial debut.
A24's "The Whale"
While it’ll be a quiet week on the national stage, two additional awards releases could make this a very noisy weekend on the limited front and that’s mostly due to the release of Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale, which features the highly anticipated performance of Brendan Fraser in the lead role. The movie is based on a play that has been adapted to film by Aronofsky and has Brenda Fraser playing a 600-pound middle-aged man named Charlie, who is trying to reconnect with his teenage daughter, played by Sadie Sink, also of “Strange Things” fame. The movie premiered at the Venice Film Festival in September and also played at the Toronto Film Festival a week later. While the movie has had some mixed reaction, which Aronofsky is no stranger to – his previous movie “mother!” received a rare “F” score from CinemaScore – Fraser’s performance has been unanimously praised and he’s a strong contender to take home the best actor trophy this awards season. That potential alone has the possibility of driving audiences to the movie, whenever it actually hits wide release, given the popularity of Fraser as an actor.
While not nearly as buzzy as “The Whale,” the other major limited release is Empire of Light, from director Sam Mendes, who came awfully close to winning best picture with his previous film “1917” before “Parasite” ended up stealing the show that night. “Empire of Light” was never really expected to be as big of a hit as “1917.” It’s more or a less a smaller follow-up, but nevertheless it stars Oscar darling Olivia Colman as a cinema manager who is struggling with her mental health when she meets a new employee named Stephen, played by Michael Ward, and together they find a sense of belonging through the power of music, cinema, and community. Colman could very easily get her fourth acting nomination for this movie, although the mixed reaction from critics might limit its potential to get much more than that.
December 16 – 18
And the major movie of the
month finally arrives in the third weekend of December. That, of course, is the
highly anticipated release of Avatar: The Way of Water. It’s
kinda crazy to think that, since the release of “Titanic” in 1997 – 25 years
ago, James Cameron has only directed one major, feature-length film. 2009’s “Avatar.”
His second release is the sequel to that film. Sure, he’s done some smaller
things between then as well as some writing and producing for other films, but
for the most part he’s spent the last 25 years of his life just doing Avatar
movies. And, sure, that most definitely paid off with the first movie as it
revolutionized 3D technology on its way to becoming the highest grossing movie
ever at both the domestic and worldwide box office – the latter of which it
still holds (“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” took its domestic title). But can
lightning strike twice for Cameron?
20th Century Studios' "Avatar: The Way of Water"
I think it’s safe to say at this point that “The Way of Water” is going to be a massive financial success. At this point, 13 years later, it has the nostalgia factor. And it does have plenty of fans, even though its legacy is a bit mixed at this point. But trying to determine exactly HOW successful it will be is a complete shot at the dark at this point. The first movie only opened to $77 million, which wound up being just 10 percent of its initial domestic run, which ended up being around $760 million. That type of run is definitely not happening again. Can it catch that $760 million mark? Possibly. I wouldn’t personally bet on that. But if it does, it means that it was a lot more frontloaded, with a much higher opening weekend. That part does seem guaranteed. I would easily mark down a $100 million opening weekend as the absolute floor. Anything lower would be a slight cause for concern. But can it double that and notch a $200 million opening weekend? Or will it fall somewhere in between with, say, $140-160 million?
How well it holds after that will be determined by what the reaction to the movie ends up being. If it’s widely praised, with word of mouth being that it’s a must-see cinematic event, that’s when the box office will soar through roof, even if it’s highly unlikely to make 10 times more than whatever its opening weekend is. Now even though all of this is a shot in the dark with little to compare to, perhaps other massive global phenomenons can provide some insight. “The Force Awakens” made $936 million. “The Last Jedi” made $620 million. “The Avengers” made $623 million. “Age of Ultron” made $459 million. “Black Panther” made $700 million. Last month’s opening of “Wakanda Forever” is still in theaters, but is tracking for around $500 million, give or take a bit. So somewhere in the $500-600 million range might be a realistic expectation for “The Way of Water.”
While it does have plenty going in its favor, it is worth noting that “Avatar” in 2009 was successful largely due to it being groundbreaking in 3D cinema. 13 years later, very few people care about 3D. Even if seeing it in 3D or in IMAX is what’s pushed, that is just not going to pull as much weight this time around in terms of it being the sole draw. A second thing worth noting that is the movie’s legacy hasn’t held up as much over time. Again, it has its fans. But it has a lot of people who also don’t care. I think if “The Way of Water” had opened in 2012, just three years after “Avatar,” maybe those two concerns would’ve been nonexistent, but 13 years later is simply a different story. Finally, the movie has a runtime of 3 hours 10 minutes. Sure, movies can be that long and still do quite well. But you mathematically just can’t have quite as many showtimes per day. Even if theaters make room by cancelling other screenings, it limits the likelihood of repeat viewings with that level of a time commitment
So yes, this movie is going to do very well. How well is hard to pin down. In terms of the franchise’s legacy as a whole, that might be given more of a test with the third movie, which is on the schedule for December 2024. Whether or not the world is tired of Avatar at that point will determine if Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 even happen. But yes, those two movies are on the schedule as well, for December 2026 and December 2028, respectfully. I do think a movie of this magnitude warranted a deeper dive than normal, but yes, there are other movies to talk about. Just not this weekend. So let’s move onto the week of Christmas itself.
December 21 – 25
Christmas Day is on Sunday
this year. Leading up to that, the releases are staggered throughout the week
from Wednesday through Sunday. The movie getting the head start on the bunch by
opening on Wednesday the 21st is Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.
It’s been a hot minute since DreamWorks has returned to the Shrek universe in
one form or another. 11 years, to be exact, when the original “Puss in Boots”
was released. And I’m not 100 percent sure a return to the franchise has been
high on people’s Christmas wish lists, but perhaps sometimes the best gifts are
the ones you weren’t expecting? Early screenings for “The Last Wish” have
happened already and the reaction has been surprisingly high. As of this
typing, it has a 93 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes from critics and a 98
percent audience score. If reaction remains that high, this is a contender for
the surprise hit of the season if word of mouth continues to build. In this
adventure, Puss has lost eight of his nine lives and is on a quest to get those
restored to him. Antonio Banderas returns to voice the character and he’ll have
Salma Hayek, Florence Pugh, and John Mulaney among those joining him. And in a
market where the Disney’s “Strange World” completely flopped, this might be the
main choice for family audiences over the holiday season and that’s a factor
that shouldn’t be overlooked.
DreamWorks' "Puss in Boots: The Last Wish"
Two days after “Puss in Boots” opens, Friday the 23rd will see two additional wide releases and it’s Whitney Houston on center stage for the most notable of the two with the musical biopic I Wanna Dance with Somebody. This musical biopic genre is getting a lot of attention as of late. It seems like all the big musical stars of the past are getting their time back in the spotlight, so it makes sense to give Whitney Houston a go. Objectively speaking, a lot of these biopics have been doing quite well with many fans of the respective artists responding quite positively. “Bohemian Rhapsody” back in 2018 was a very notable example that helped this genre catch fire as it wound up with over $200 million at the domestic box office and many Oscar nominations. Just this year, “Elvis” wound up with over $150 million as a sleeper summer hit. So the way is paved for “I Wanna Dance with Somebody” to have a successful holiday run, with Naomi Ackie playing Whitney Houston to be a breakout star. It’s worth noting, though, that this genre hasn’t had a 100 percent hit rate. Last year’s “Respect,” a biopic about Jennifer Hudson, was a complete blip on the radar, making just $32 million worldwide. Or there’s been plenty in between, like “Rocketman” in 2019 opening to $25 million and making $96 million domestically. So there’s no guarantee here, but there’s still hit potential.
The final wide release of the Christmas week, also opening on Friday the 23rd, is Oscar-winner Damien Chazelle’s next film, Babylon. After finding massive success with “Whiplash” and “La La Land,” at least in terms of awards and reaction, and moderate success with “First Man,” Chazelle’s fourth feature is honestly going to be a bit of a tough sell. It’s a movie about movies, so that’s an instant plus for awards season as it is yet another film that tackles the transition from silent film to talkies, but this movie tackles the wild side of that era, reportedly riding the line between R and NC-17 in terms of content, perhaps with “The Wolf of Wall Street” being a comparison. Add to that, it’s another movie that’s over three hours long, clocking in at 3 hours 8 minutes. Early reaction has been quite divisive, naturally. Take what you saw in the trailers and have that happening for three hours and not everyone is going to be on board for it. Some might praise Chazelle for being extremely ambitious while others will say he went way overboard. How will that translate to general audiences? It probably won’t, but I can see it playing strongly for a niche group of people who are up for the challenge.
That’s it for the wide releases, but the end of the year always has a few limited releases throwing their name in the hate for awards contention, while actually expanding wide in January. Some of these I might touch on more come January with their wide expansions. But they’re worth giving brief mentions here. The biggest name is the theatrical release of Women Talking, which has been a buzzy title all of awards season following its release in the festivals. It’s from director Sarah Polley and tackles a heavy subject matter about an isolated Mennonite colony where it’s revealed that men from their community have been drugging and raping the community’s women at night for years, many of whom have done nothing. Some critics have confessed that the movie lives up to its title, a very dialogue-heavy with… women talking. Eight women debating on what they should do, with Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, and Jessie Buckley leading the way. That might mean this is more of a niche film that might not hit with audiences when it does hit wide release, but it’s nevertheless still expected to be a major awards contender.
A second notable limited release is the Bill Nighy led movie Living. This is a movie that was released way back in Sundance of this year, so January. It doesn’t necessarily have as much momentum as some of the other awards contenders that I’ve brought up, but nevertheless the movie is a British drama adapted from the 1952 Japanese film “Ikiru,” which in turn was inspired by the 1886 novella “The Death of Ivan Ilyich,” by Leo Tolstoy. The story follows a man in 1950s London who takes time off work to have some introspective looks on life following a grim diagnosis. Even if the movie itself doesn’t have a ton of awards momentum and might not be a huge hit with audiences, one element of the film that does seem to have universal praise is the Bill Nighy performance, which does seem like is in position to give Bill Nighy an Oscar nomination. And if that happens, certain people are bound to actually check out the movie itself so they can judge said performance themselves.
And finally, opening on Christmas Day in select theaters is A Man Called Otto. This isn’t getting a ton of awards talk at the moment and could simply be a mainstream audience hit when it expands in January. Perhaps we’ll revisit it in January to dive in more. But anytime Tom Hanks is involved in a project, it’s at least worth a look. It’s also a movie that’s 100 percent guilty of the idea that us dumb Americans are sometimes allergic to subtitles and will never watch foreign films. In other words, oftentimes very popular foreign films get American, English-language adaptations and the hit rate with those is quite low in terms of audience reaction. “A Man Called Otto” is an adaptation of the 2015 Swedish film “A Man Called Ove,” which was nominated that year for the best foreign language film Oscar after receiving strong praise. That movie itself is based off of a 2012 novel of the same name, so this counts as the second adaptation of that. The general premise follows a grumpy old man who is kinda done with life who has to deal with some boisterous new neighbors that might end up changing his outlook. In which case, if an American adaptation of this has to happen, Tom Hanks is a solid choice for a popular movie about a grumpy old man. January 13 is the date that is currently set for its wide expansion, so we’ll bring this up again next month. And at that point we’ll have the reaction to the movie to help us with a better prognosis on how it might hit.
