Movie Preview: February 2022

It’s been a busy week for this blog as I just posted my big year-end lists of my favorite movies of the year and my yearly preview of the upcoming year. But because I was a tad bit late on those than usual, we immediately turn our attention to the second month of the year. January went about as expected. Essentially there was just one new movie that made any noise and that was the reboot/sequel “Scream,” the fifth movie in the franchise that did rather well for itself with a $30 million debut, which was about double that of what I was expecting. Outside that, “The 355,” “Redeeming Love,” and “The King’s Daughter” all opened with less than $5 million, paving the way for “Spider-Man: No Way Home” to continue to dominate. Its current total of $740 million domestically is just around $20 million shy of the $760.5 million domestic total of “Avatar,” which will make it third on the domestic charts if it manages to pass that mark.

Onto February. “Spider-Man” will finally be dethroned for good (“Scream” reigned for a week, but then “Spider-Man” took the weekend title right back for the final two weeks). Winter storms are brewing. A Super Bowl match will take place that always impacts the box office. But we do have Valentine’s Day and President’s Day. And February has proven its worth in the recent past as a month that can have mega releases. See the likes of “Black Panther” or “Deadpool” for an example. But are there any on the calendar this year with potential or will the box office world stand still while the world waits for “The Batman” in March?

As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com. The movies listed are the movies currently scheduled to open in wide release domestically, so the United States and Canada, yet are always subject to change.

February 4 – 6

Paramount's "Jackass Forever"

Normally the first weekend of February is Super Bowl weekend. But not this year. The NFL added an extra week onto its schedule, which pushes Super Bowl weekend to the second weekend of February. We’ll get into the implications of that here in a second, but what it means for this weekend is a brief opening where both wide releases are targeting a male audience while the NFL is essentially on a bye week.

Hoping to take clear advantage of that is Jackass Forever, the fourth movie in the Jackass franchise, full of dangerous pranks, stunts, and a team of people putting themselves in harm’s way to get some laughs out of people. This team of people, led by Johnny Knoxville, Steve-O, and others, has been doing this shtick for quite some time now. They started in 2000 with a TV show and have since done three movies and a spin-off and thus carry a built-in audience that has been quite reliable in the past. In fact, their first two movies in the early 2000s both opened in the 20 million range. The third movie in 2010 opened to $50.4 million and even the “Bad Grandpa” spin-off in 2013 surprised with a $32 million opening. So there seems to be a pretty solid floor for this movie. And given the low production costs of making these, the bar for success is quite low, in terms of making an official profit.

Perhaps the major obstacle for this franchise is that it’s been 12 years since that last movie in the main saga and nine years since the “Bad Grandpa” spin-off. And while video sharing platforms obviously existed when those movies were released, the popularity has skyrocketed since in the past decade. While the main core of the audience is likely to show up, it might be hard for the movie to attract much of a new young audience who has access to these types of videos for free on the likes of YouTube and TikTok. There have also been huge winter storms this weekend that could be impacting box office totals to at least some degree. “Jackass Forever” opened with an estimated $9.6 million on Friday, meaning its heading towards a weekend around $20-25 million, generally in line with expectations.

The other movie looking to target the male audience this weekend is the new Roland Emmerich disaster movie Moonfall. The premise of this movie surrounds a potentially apocalyptic disaster with the moon falling out of orbit and on a crash course towards Earth. A team of scientists has to figure out what’s going on and what they can do to save the world. In other words, a typical Roland Emmerich disaster movie. 20-25 years ago this is the type of movie that would be the movie event of the year. In 1996, “Independence Day” was the top movie of the year. Even in the years since then, Emmerich has scored huge six of his movies spanning three decades making over $100 million total at the domestic box office. The issue is that his reputation as filmmaker who makes quality films is a bit in question, especially as of late. Not helping his cause is the general lack of desire for these type of world-ending disaster movies.

Going into the weekend, the comparison for “Moonfall” was to the 2017 movie “Geostorm,” which opened with $13.7 million in its opening weekend. But “Moonfall” is looking to even fall short of that. Its estimated opening day total was $3.4 million, which means it could struggle to crack the $10 million mark. For comparison, “Geostorm” earned $5.9 million on its opening day on its way to that $13.7 million. This will be Emmerich’s worst opening weekend of his career for a movie that opened in at least 3,000 theaters. Lack of awareness, lack of a desire to see the movie, plus a wave of negative reviews is the cause of this.

February 11 – 13

20th Century Studios' "Death on the Nile"

The second weekend of February is an extremely unique weekend as Super Bowl meets Valentine’s Day. As mentioned above, the Super Bowl in the past has been the first Sunday of February, but due to the NFL adding another week the Super Bowl is now on the second Sunday of February. Why that has relevance to the movie world is that the Super Bowl is so popular that it completely axes the Sunday box office for that weekend, which means everything opening this weekend only has a two-day weekend. What makes it weird is that Valentine’s Day weekend often is quite the popular movie weekend. With Valentine’s Day on Monday, a date night movie trip for the weekend before will be in the cards for many. Does that mean this will be an extra big Friday and Saturday combined with an extra small Sunday?

The other question here becomes was Disney aware of this when they committed to this weekend for Death on the Nile? This is the follow-up to the 2017 movie “Murder on the Orient Express,” both of which are adaptations of the Agatha Christie series of mystery novels involving fictional detective Hercule Poirot. The character first appeared in “The Mysterious Affair at Styles” in 1920 and was continued appear in Christie novels and short stories until “Curtain” in 1975. This recent film series involving the character is portrayed by Kenneth Branagh, who has also directed both movies as well. This is good timing for Branagh as he’ll be coming off of many academy award nominations for “Belfast,” but is it good timing for this particular weekend?

“Death on the Nile” has been one of the COVID victims. It was initially scheduled for 2019 until Disney pushed it into 2020, a horrible decision in hindsight that they obviously couldn’t have predicted. Its final rescheduling came in March of 2021, when Disney pushed it to this date, which was probably before Disney knew that this would be Super Bowl weekend. So it’s possible Disney just wants to get this one out of the way. Its predecessor opened to $28.7 and wound up pretty leggy, finishing with $102.8 million domestically. The Super Bowl weekend record is $31.1 million, set way back in 2008 with the Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus concert movie. Only seven movies total have opened above $20 million. But again, we’re currently in uncharted territory with Valentine’s Weekend colliding with it.

Although speaking of Valentine’s Day, the movie that actually seems well positioned in the romance drama of the month in Marry Me. Jennifer Lopez plays one half of a superstar, celebrity couple. When things go awry between her and her partner, she decides to propose mid-concert to a nobody in the audience she has never met, played by Owen Wilson. Whether or not Owen Wilson can successfully pull off a “nobody” is probably irrelevant to the target audience here. A romance drama starring Jennifer Lopez and Owen Wilson could be perfect for Valentine’s Day. And what potentially puts it in better position is that the movies that have done well on Super Bowl weekend are the movies targeted at female audiences. Of the seven movies mentioned in the previous paragraph, most of them have been romance movies. So if things go south for “Death on the Nile,” and “Marry Me” does connect with its target audience, this could be potential upset territory here.

The third movie of the weekend that seems to be in the worst position is the latest Liam Neeson action flick Blacklight. Now outside the obvious here of trying to sell an action movie to a male target audience on the Super Bowl, the big challenge here is that these Liam Neeson action are becoming a dime a dozen. Even pre-COVID, “Cold Pursuit” and “The Commuter” opened to $11 million and $13.7 million respectively. But recently “The Marksman” and “Honest Thief” both opened just above $3 million. Now while that was during COVID and thus not the most apple-to-apples comparison, it nevertheless wouldn’t be surprising to see this movie fall in that range. Awareness seems low. Interest doesn’t seem to be there. And the weekend is a horrible one. Last month’s “The 355” opened to $4.6 million, which seems like a good range and thus means this might open around those latest two Liam Neeson, anyways. Even with a lot more theaters opened at this current time.

February 18 – 20

Sony Pictures' "Uncharted"

The third weekend of February is a lot more positively positioned. No Super Bowl to deal with and a four-day holiday weekend with Presidents’ Day on Monday. If any of the previous weekend’s movies get good reviews that could lead to excellent holdover business. On top of that, the new movie hoping to take full advantage of the holiday weekend is the long-awaited film adaptation of Uncharted. Theoretically speaking, this is a movie that’s in excellent position with the weekend at hand plus the presence of Tom Holland, fresh off the enormous success of the latest Spider-Man movie. That’s destined to sell a few extra tickets at the least. “Uncharted” is based off the video game series that began in 2007 and has spawned several sequel games since. Tom Holland will be playing the lead role of Nathan Drake in the action/adventure movie with Mark Wahlberg in line as his co-star. The obvious hurdle is the abysmal track record of video game movie adaptations. If this is yet another poorly reviewed video game adaptation, some might choose to stay away, so the reaction to this one will be key.

Sliding in right along with “Uncharted” will be the Channing Tatum drama Dog. Simple title for probably a simple movie. Channing Tatum plays a former Army Ranger who is paired against his will with this Army dog. Things seem like chaos at first, but because dog is man’s best friend, the two end up getting along and becoming close partners. Seems like a feel-good drama that has potential to become an underrated sleeper hit. I’m reminded of the 2015 movie “Max,” another movie about a military dog and his new human partner. That movie opened to $12.2 million and legged out to $42.7 million domestically. This isn’t going to win the weekend, but it could provide solid counterprogramming, especially if “Uncharted” ends up with poor reviews and this movie gets good reviews.

The final movie of the weekend is a movie that may or may not be actually coming out. It’s listed as being on the schedule, but it might be one of those movies that ends up in just a few hundred theaters. That movie is the horror film The Cursed. This was actually a 2021 Sundance film, but it didn’t get much attention and the reaction was fairly middling. The movie surrounds a supernatural threat in 1800s France and a pathologist that comes to investigate. The biggest concern to me in regards to box office potential is that it doesn’t seem to be getting much of a marketing push. The trailer just barely came out 10 days ago and I’ve not seen it anywhere. Compare that to “Uncharted” and “Dog,” both of which have been heavily pushed over the last several months. If this does come out, it seems to be the type of movie that will be fighting for a spot in the top 10 rather than one people pay attention to.

February 25 – 27

United Artists' "Cyrano"

Speaking of movies that may or may not come out, it’s the boy that cried wolf at this point with Cyrano, a movie I’ve included in both my December and January movie previews. It’s a musical starring Peter Dinklage that has received enormously strong praise… from the small handful of people that have managed to see it. Screeners have been sent out and it had a brief Oscar-qualifying run in December, but United Artists has really botched its rollout. It should be a movie getting all the awards attention with multiple nominations, or at least in the conversation. But it’s probably going to get blanked because no is talking about it due to few people even having the opportunity to see it. Even if it does finally commit to this newest release date, it has another major problem. “The Batman” comes out in the first weekend of March. Which is why every other studio is smartly choosing to completely avoid this weekend.

DrogeMiester's Top 10 BEST Movies of 2021

It’s time again for my top 10 favorite movies of the year, which is always my favorite post to do. Each year always provides its own unique set of circumstances, but with COVID still raging on that definitely has made the last couple of years especially unique. The result was an indie-heavy list in 2020 as those smaller films were the only movies that came out. Most of the major blockbusters scheduled for 2020 got pushed into… 2021, meaning we kinda doubled up on the bigger films this year while the box office was in recovery. In compiling my list this year, it felt like I had twice the usual options, which is not necessarily a bad problem to have.

On top of that, the last two years have been a unique year for the awards season. Specifically, the Oscars extended their eligibility for the 2020 season through February 2021. Some have chosen with their lists to follow the Oscar calendar year. And that’s fine. I have chosen to stick with the normal calendar year, which means half of the best picture nominees from last year’s ceremony are 2021 films in my book, not 2020 films. Yeah, it’s a bit of an ambiguous judgment call, but that’s what I’ve decided on. That’s the fun thing of having your own site. You can set your own rules. Real quick, I don’t count festival releases or any sort of special release like that. And I don’t count Oscar-qualifying runs. If a movie is released in limited release one year, then is expanded into wide release the next year, I’ll count the year that it hit limited release, but that’s different than Oscar-qualifying run. I can elaborate later if you’re curious.

I don’t usually spend that much time elaborating on that, but in this case those parameters will be very critical for this specific list. Outside that, per usual, I have not seen every movie from 2021. There are a few major ones, like “Mass” and “King Richard,” that I missed, as well as a few like “Drive My Car” that I count as 2021 films, but have not yet expanded far enough for me to see them. And that’s OK. In the past I’ve been a lot more worried about that. And while I try to see everything I can, I’ve accepted the fact that I will never see everything and that this list each year is merely a snapshot in time of what I was feeling in the moment. If my favorite movie ends up changing over time or I find a new movie that would’ve made the list, that’s perfectly fine. That was definitely the case when I put together my decades list the other year. It’s fun to go back and re-evaluate or look back on what I was feeling in the moment. But anyways, with all those formalities out of the way, let’s dive into the list proper!

10- Free Guy

This final spot on the list that we’re starting with was probably the hardest. Mainly because I was certain that “Free Guy,” “The Suicide Squad” and “Shang-Chi” were all sure-fire entries on this list, ones that would be much higher as well. But given the large number of options, as explained above, I simple ran out of space and was devastated that I could only include one of those three. All three are highly entertaining blockbuster films that I could watch many times over, but the ever so slight edge goes to “Free Guy,” mainly for its high level of creativity. Conceptually it was a very high risk film that turned into a fantastic high reward. It’s Ryan Reynolds being Ryan Reynolds, but sometimes that shtick works perfectly and this was the right vehicle for it. Moreover, this felt like such a fun, unique concept, a bit of a breath of fresh air from our usual Blockbuster affair. It also seems to prove to me that the best video game movies are not the video game movies that are based on a specific IP, but are original concepts that feel like video games, with this and “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World” being two great examples. I’m glad this caught fire because I’m ready for more from this world.

9- The Mauritanian

The what? Here’s the first potential surprise on this list. Perhaps because this is one of the movies that was eligible for the 2020 Oscars, but also because, out of all of last year’s awards contenders, this is one that slipped right under the radar and wound up being completely ignored. After I watched it, I was a bit upset and floored at this for not getting more attention. Because, yeah, this was way better than most of last year’s nominees. It’s in the vein of a “Judas and the Black Messiah,” a strong honorable mention for this list, in that it’s a historical piece you watch for the sake of education and not entertainment. In both cases, the American government is the antagonist of the film. In this case, the story revolves around one Mohamedou Ould Slahi, who was imprisoned for being suspected of being involved in the 9/11 attacks. He was detained for years and years… without even being officially charged. The lawyers involved in his case were portrayed as horrible villains by the media for even attempting to stick up for him. Yet the guy was 100 percent innocent in one of the most shocking miscarriages of justice that I’ve seen. Jodie Foster, Shailene Woodley, and Tahar Rahim gave performances that all should’ve been nominated last year, but weren’t. Given that awards mean nothing, I encourage you to watch this and decide for yourself.

8- tick, tick… BOOM!

Musicals were a big trend of 2021. And there were a handful that could’ve qualified for this list, as well as a few that could be contenders for the worst nonsense of the year, but of the ones that I really enjoyed, “tick, tick… BOOM!” was the one that I felt elevated itself above the rest for not simply being a flashy, gorgeously choreographed showcase of music and dance, but for being a whole lot more. First off, the construction of this musical is fascinating. It’s based on the Broadway play of the same name, which is loosely based on the life of playwright Jonathan Larson – as written and directed by Jonathan Larson himself before he died. But the movie is more of a look on Jonathan Larson’s life, while also showcases the performance of the musical inside of the musical. And if that all sounds confusing, it makes more sense in my brain than when I type it out. But mostly I gravitated to the story of Jonathan Larson, who had a rather tragic life that is depressingly relatable. The second you think it’s going the way it should, the floor gets ripped out from under him and stabs the audiences in the heart because his road feels all too familiar. An emotional gut-punch of a film with a stand-out performance from Andrew Garfield that is among his best in a great year for him.

7- Last Night in Soho

This will probably go down as the other major surprise. The other choices on this list are ones you’ve probably seen on other lists. I highly doubt you’ve seen “Last Night in Soho” on anyone’s list. And if you have, then it’s still unique nonetheless. I heard all the mixed reviews before going in and had to thus temper my expectations a bit. But I was blown away and it’s not because this was better than I was expecting. It’s because this is genuinely a fantastic film that is a lot more in line with the quality of all the other Edgar Wright movies than pretty much anyone is giving it credit for. The retro 60s horror was a lot of fun, but I was mostly completely drawn in by the dual story arcs going on that were juxtaposed to a certain extent. Thomasin McKenzie plays a young fashion designer in the modern world who is obsessed with the past. Yet when she sees visions and dreams of a woman from the past, a singer and model from the 60s played by Anya Taylor-Joy, she becomes slowly horrified that her dreams of the past are perhaps not as rainbows and butterflies as she would hope. The descent into madness on both fronts is incredible and the final act that most people are hating on is a bonkers one that I absolutely loved. I guess it’s not for everyone, but I don’t care. It was perfect for me.

6- Nobody

With the recent emergence of “John Wick” as perhaps the best modern action franchise, there are a so many studios and filmmakers who are desperately trying to cash in on that trend and become the next “John Wick.” And while some have been entertaining and many have failed, it was Universal that struck gold with “Nobody,” using Bob Odenkirk as their lead star and “Hardcore Henry” director Ilya Naishuller as the director. An unlikely combination that works like a charm. Bob Odenkirk, who plays Saul Goodman in “Breaking Bad” and “Better Call Saul” is not one who you’d expect to step right into an action star role, but that’s the point of this movie. He’s a regular husband and father, trying to live a normal life. But nothing is normal about how his past has gone and said past comes back to haunt him and forces him to defend himself and his family. Keanu Reeves is one who has had a history of being an action star, so his turn as John Wick wasn’t surprising, but Bob Odenkirk doing this did seemingly come out of nowhere, but I was absolutely here for it. If you need to scratch the action itch, this one will do the job better than most action movies out there today.

5- The Mitchells vs. the Machines

A solid year for animation in 2021. And a tip of my hat to Disney for “Encanto” and “Raya and the Last Dragon,” both of which I really enjoyed, but the best animated movie of the year is not even a question. From producers Lord and Miller, the duo responsible for “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” and “The LEGO Movie,” and directors Mike Rianda and Jeff Rowe, who worked on “Gravity Falls,” comes a movie that is definitely on par with all of those things. That’s some pretty high praise, but well deserved praise in my mind. This is wacky and zany and fun. It’ll easily entertaining your kids and perhaps have them watching it on repeat for years. But it’ll also entertain adults and people of all ages as well. One of those prime examples of how we don’t need to give crappy animated a pass simply because “the kids loved it.” Because movies like this exist that entertain both. It throws everything at the wall and all of it sticks. It’ll have you laughing hysterically the entire run. It’ll have you in awe of the animation and all the little things thrown in, much like “Spider-Verse.” But it’ll also have you in a puddle of tears by the end with how emotional and powerful it gets. Animated movies don’t get much better than this. And if you haven’t checked it out, it’s right there on Netflix for you to fix that.

4- Pig

Speaking of John Wick action movies that are trying to cash in on the trend, this is… NOT one of them. Despite it seeming like that when you watch the trailers and read the premise. Nicolas Cage as a lonely man who is out for vengeance when someone steals his beloved pig? I mean, I would be fully on board with that if that was in fact what it was, another zany Nicolas Cage performance that goes all out in its wackiness, making him the next John Wick. But what you get instead is a very slow, well-paced drama about a man with a dark past whose last real connection, his pet pig, gets ripped away from him and leaves him broken and scarred even more. You expect to go in having a lot of fun with this, yet you wind up bawling your face off if you’ve ever experienced the special connection of human and pet, whether it be a dog, a cat, or whatever. I’ve always said that Nicolas Cage is a great actor who can give a great performance when he wants to. He won an Oscar for a reason. But he mostly chooses to have fun with the roles he picks and I’m totally fine with that. But in “Pig” he brings that acting prowess back to the forefront and shows that he’s still got it. If it were up to me, he would 100 percent be getting his second Oscar win. No one in 2021 was better than him.

 3- Spider-Man: No Way Home

Sometimes in life, the most popular movie of the year is also one of the best ones. Spider-Man movies will always make a lot of money, regardless of their quality. But this is the Spider-Man of all Spider-Man movies. The “Avengers: Endgame” of the franchise, if you will. And while I will still claim “Spider-Man 2” as my favorite Spider-Man movie, you get why I am making that comparison. This movie is one of the top five highest grossing domestic releases ever and is the most successful Sony release and most successful Spider-Man movie, even when you adjust for ticket price inflation. So you’ve likely all seen it and there’s a very big reason why it has become so massive. It’s one of those rare movies where the hype was through the roof and it somehow managed to live up to all the hype and perhaps exceed it. It was 100 percent pure fan service, but every piece of fan service was there for a reason and had a critical part of the film. It not only provided a fantastic arc for Tom Holland in this recent trilogy, but also provided a lot of closure and satisfaction for other things and characters. Y’all know what I mean, but I’m still not going to spoil it here. I wrote a giant spoiler review if you haven’t checked that out, though. I’ve seen it three times now and it gets better each time. And not just for the entertainment value, but the emotional peaks of the movie still got me, even though I knew they were coming.

2- CODA

From really big to really small. A Sundance film initially that went straight to Apple TV+, a streaming service that not as many have. But yet I’ve been very pleased that it has remained in conversations all year and has even been picking up steam in awards season, to the point where this is one of the films that could theoretically win best picture. By some people’s parameters this would be my No. 1 of the year as some might disqualify my actual No. 1. We’ll get to that in a second here. And it would be a deserving of that title and I hope it wins best picture. CODA stands for “children of deaf adults.” The movie is a coming of age story about a girl who can hear, but whose parents and siblings are deaf, played by actual deaf actors. The plot might go in a direction that you expect it to go, but this proves you can take a familiar concept and still make an incredible movie if your execution is done well, which this movie is done to perfection. Because the emotion is intense and the feel-good moments throughout are off the charts. As a frosting on the cake, actual people from the deaf community have responded very well to this. I had a friend from said community who reached out to me and was blown away by how perfect this movie was in representing the deaf community and the challenges that CODAs go through. And that knowledge just makes it all better.  

1- The Father

Yes, the reason why I put so much emphasis in the intro of this post describing the parameters of what I consider a 2021 film is because my No. 1 film is one that many have labeled as a 2020 film. To me it’s a 2021 film and I will argue that case for those who dispute it. And it’s one of the most emotionally powerful films that I’ve seen as of late. It’s about a man suffering from dementia. And sure, we’ve seen many movies like that before, but how many of them have looked at dementia from the vantage point of the person going through that? Anthony Hopkins is the central focus of the movie and everything around him keeps changing. He suddenly turns around and is in different locations that he’s not used to. People tell him stories that are different than what he remembers them saying. And the emotion and frustration is so intense because no one can seem to understand. His reality is not reality, but to him it very much is. And we as an audience are never clued in as to what is real and what isn’t, which makes the experience that much more surreal. If you’ve ever known a grandparent or other elderly person in your life who has gone through dementia or another similar mental illness, this movie will connect with you in ways that no other film can. Anthony Hopkins, in controversial fashion, won best actor for this role last year. And he absolutely deserved it.

 

Honorable Mentions

With the list proper complete, here are some honorable mentions. Nos. 11 - 25 on my list. All of which were deserving of making the cut. But, as explained, there were just so many options this year, all things considered. Even this full 25 is not all-inclusive of everything I enjoyed watching this year. No detailed explanation for each, but if you’re curious for one or perhaps why another movie didn’t show up, comment and let me know. And, as always, I’d be curious to know what your top 2021 movies are, with whatever parameters you choose. 

11- The Suicide Squad
12- The Night House
13- Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
14- The Green Knight
15- The Last Duel
16- In the Heights
17- Encanto
18- Judas and the Black Messiah
19- The Power of the Dog
20- F9: The Fast Saga
21- Raya and the Last Dragon
22- A Quiet Place Part II
23- Fear Street Part 1: 1994
24- Malignant
25- Lamb