The 90th Academy Awards: Predictions

The 90th Academy Awards will take place tomorrow night and, as tradition, here are my annual picks and predictions as to what I think is going to happen as well as what I want to happen. What's made this year so unique is that there really hasn't been a front runner in this race. Usually there's two or three movies that set themselves apart from the rest and we go into Oscar night with a favorite to win. Then we all sit and watch to see if everything plays out as expected or if there's any big surprises. That's not the case this year. There's no favorite to win and there's almost no expectations going into the night, outside a few categories here and there. It's hard to even look at the other awards shows to make predictions as most of them have gone in completely different directions. Personally this makes it really exciting to me and it also makes these predictions really hard. A lot of these categories felt like I was closing my eyes and throwing darts at the wall and they could all be wrong. And that's OK with me. As far as the order of this post, last year I started with the biggest categories and worked down to the small categories. This year I'm going in the opposite direction as I start with the smaller categories and work my way up. Best picture is always announced last, so I will follow suit.

Documentary Short Subject:

Nominations:

- "Edith + Eddie" - Laura Checkoway & Thomas Lee Wright
- "Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405" - Frank Stiefel
- "Heroin(e)" - Elain McMilion Sheldon & Kerrin Sheldon
- "Knife Skills" - Thomas Lennon
- "Traffic Stop" - Kate Davis & David Heilbroner

Will Win:

- "Edith + Eddie" - Laura Checkoway & Thomas Lee Wright

Should Win:

- "Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405" - Frank Stiefel

I don't always get around to these shorts, but this year I made a concerted effort to do so and I watched all of them that were available for me to watch, which happened to be every single one of them in this category. "Heroin(e)" is on Netflix and the other four you can find on YouTube. I've really come to love documentaries and I actually really enjoyed all five of these. Each one of them has their strong points and I wouldn't be surprised if any of them one. Personally I think most people are going to be attracted towards "Edith + Eddie," a story of an interracial couple who got married in their 90's. It would be a well-deserved win. It was hard for me to pick my personal favorite, but I chose "Heaven is a Traffic Jam in the 405" because I found it to be the most powerful as it tells the story of a woman who has gone through severe depression and anxiety in her life, yet managed to come through on the other side. 

Animated Short Film:

Nominations:

- "Dear Basketball" - Glen Keane & Kobe Bryant
- "Garden Party" - Victor Claire & Gabriel Grapperon
- "Lou" - Dave Mullins & Dana Murray
- "Negative Space" - Max Porter & Ru Kuwahata
- "Revolting Rhymes" - Jakob Schuh & Jan Lachauer

Will Win:

- "Dear Basketball" - Glen Keane & Kobe Bryant

Should Win:

- "Dear Basketball" - Glen Keane & Kobe Bryant

Again, I've watched all of these animated shorts. "Revolting Rhymes" is on Netflix and I found the others on YouTube. As far as "Revolting Rhymes" goes, I found that to be hilariously bizarre as they take some classic fairy tales in some crazy directions. But I didn't feel like considering it because it's an hour long. "Garden Party" and "Negative Space" were decent, but somewhat forgettable. "Lou" is the animated short that played in front of Pixar's "Cars 3" and while it would be easy to pick that one to win, Kobe Bryant's farewell to basketball really got to me as someone who's loved basketball since I was six. Kobe Bryant is a player I really respect and the game is going to miss him. Initially I wasn't convinced it was actually going to win. I mean, how many of these Oscar voters really care about basketball? And then it hit me. Most of the voters are from Los Angeles. Kobe's been their guy. So I think they're going to give him the Oscar. It doesn't hurt that the animation to go along with the farewell note is really good. If Kobe doesn't win, I think it means they defaulted to "Lou."

Live Action Short Film:

Nominations:

- "DeKalb Elementary" - Reed Van Dyk
- "The Eleven O'Clock" - Derin Seale & Josh Lawson
- "My Nephew Emmett" - Kevin Wilson Jr.
- "The Silent Child" - Chris Overton & Rachel Shenton
- "Watu Wote / All of Us" - Katja Benrath & Tobias Rosen

Will Win:

- "DeKalb Elementary" - Reed Van Dyk

Should Win:

- n/a

This category I really wanted to watch, but I had no way of doing so, which means I have to admit that I have seen none of these. But the second they find their way online in some fashion, I will get to them. That's why I can't make my personal pick. But I did watch all of the trailers and that's when I learned that "DeKalb Elementary" is a short film about a school shooting, making it extremely relevant. Since the Oscars are often political, I think this will be a perfect opportunity for them to give this a win, which will lead to a powerful speech.

Foreign Language Film:

Nominations:

- "A Fantastic Woman" - Chile
- "The Insult" - Lebanon
- "Loveless" - Russia
- "On Body and Soul" - Hungary
- "The Square" - Sweden

Will Win:

- "A Fantastic Woman" - Chile

Should Win:

- n/a

I really do like this category, I just always get around to these movies like a year later when they finally decide to show up on a streaming site. Last year's winner, "The Salesman," was really good. But I didn't watch that until like a month or two ago. The only one available to me right now is "On Body and Soul," which just showed up on Netflix. But I don't think it's fair to judge a category after only seeing one of the films, so I'm abstaining from making a personal pick. But I closely examined the box office totals, read the reviews and watched all of the trailers. Doing so has made me gravitate towards "A Fantastic Woman," but I think "The Insult" could also be in play. I don't think we're going to feel like giving an Oscar to Russia at this point and the other two don't seem like Oscar winners, but we'll see if there's a surprise in store. 

Documentary Feature:

Nominations:

- "Abacus: Small Enough to Jail" - Steve James, Mark Mitten & Julie Goldman
- "Faces Places" - Agnès Varda, JR & Rosalie Varda
- "Icarus" - Bryan Fogel & Dan Cogan
- "Last Men in Aleppo" - Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed & Søren Steen Jespersen
- "Strong Island" - Yance Ford & Joslyn Barnes

Will Win:

- "Icarus" - Bryan Fogel & Dan Cogan

Should Win:

- "Icarus" - Bryan Fogel & Dan Cogan

I hear great things about "Faces Places" and as soon as it's made available to me, I will check it out, because, again, I've come to really love documentaries. I have watched the other four and I could see this going any way. "Abacus" doesn't feel like a winner to me, but that is a good Frontline documentary. If you like those, check that one out. "Last Men in Aleppo" and "Strong Island" could be in play as "Aleppo" is about the bombings over there in Syria while "Strong Island" is about the director's brother, a black man who got killed by a white man who never even got a trial. But "Icarus" speaks to me the most. I actually watched this quite some time ago after someone on ESPN recommended I go watch it. It's about the guy who accidentally uncovered the huge doping scandal in Russia, which got the country banned from the most recent Olympics. It's probably the biggest sports scandal in history, thus something this unique in a documentary deserves to be watched and showered with awards. It's on the level of "CITIZENFOUR," the Edward Snowden documentary, for me. It and "Faces Places" seem to be the strongest two candidates, so I'm throwing my cards at "Icarus." 

Original Song:

Nominations:

- "Mighty River" - Mary J. Blige ("Mudbound")
- "Mystery of Love" - Sufjan Stevens ("Call Me by Your Name")
- "Remember Me" - Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez ("Coco")
- "Stand Up for Something" - Diane Warren & Lonnie R. Lynn ("Marshall")
- "This is Me" - Benj Pasek & Justin Paul ("The Greatest Showman")

Will Win:

- "Remember Me" - Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez ("Coco")

Should Win:

- "Remember Me" - Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez ("Coco")

I'll spare you my rant on "The Greatest Showman" and the song "This is Me." I don't like either. I'd say ask me later if you want to know why, but at this point I'd be surprised if you didn't already know my take. That aside, when it comes to best original song in a motion picture, "Remember Me" from "Coco" is the dictionary definition of the type of song that SHOULD win that category. It's not just a good song that plays at some point during the movie. Different versions of the song recur throughout the film and the themes from the song are woven throughout the whole run time. "Remember Me" IS "Coco." Even on its own, it's a song with a lot of depth and meaning to it. The other three songs not named "This is Me" are also really good, especially "Mystery of Love." But none of them had the same impact on their movie that "Remember Me" had on "Coco." Because of that, I almost predicted "This is Me" to win, just because it seems like the Academy ALWAYS gets this category wrong. I mean, they gave the win to that dumb Bond song from Sam Smith a couple years ago. But I decided that if "Coco" loses, I lose, too. And I've seen it get enough wins to give me confidence.

Original Score:

Nominations:

- "Dunkirk" - Hans Zimmer
- "Phantom Thread" - Jonny Greenwood
- "The Shape of Water" - Alexandre Desplat
- "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" - John Williams
- "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" - Carter Burwell

Will Win:

- "The Shape of Water" - Alexandre Desplat

Should Win:

- "The Shape of Water" - Alexandre Desplat

I really love listening to movie scores as I study, write blog posts or other things like that. It's the perfect music to help keep my mind focused. Thus after the nominations for this category came out, I've gone through all of these at least once and some of them several times. I enjoy all of them, although I'll admit that Hans Zimmer's score for "Dunkirk" is too repetitive, so I haven't gone back to that one much. Jonny Greewood's score is good, but also fairly basic orchestral stuff. Carter Burwell gives a score that fits "Three Billboards" perfectly as it is extremely mellow and depressing. And of course John Williams always gives a good Star Wars score, even if "The Last Jedi" isn't his best. But that score of "The Shape of Water" is fantastic. Not only is it like a character unto itself in the movie as it feels very aquatic, but I can listen to that for hours on repeat as I do things. And I have. There's been a lot of times in the last month or so where I've gone to the library to type a blog post and immediately turned to it while I type. So it's an easy pick for me. And the buzz I hear is that the Academy is on the same page with me, but if they give it to Williams or Zimmer, I won't be shocked.

Visual Effects:

Nominations:

- "Blade Runner 2049" - John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert & Richard R. Hooper
- "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2" - Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner & Dan Sudick
- "Kong: Skull Island" - Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza & Mike Meinardus
- "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" - Ben Morris, Mike Milholland, Neal Scanlan & Chris Corbould
- "War for the Planet of the Apes" - Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon & Joel Whist

Will Win:

- "Blade Runner 2049" - John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert & Richard R. Hooper

Should Win:

- "War for the Planet of the Apes" - Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon & Joel Whist

This is the one category devoted to the big blockbusters that the Academy otherwise chooses to ignore. And this is a tough one to pick. "Guardians," "Kong" and "The Last Jedi" are probably just there as a courtesy, so it's down to "Blade Runner" and "Apes." I'm not 100 percent sure which one is going to win, but up to this point the Academy hasn't cared about "Apes," so why would that change now? I'm leaning towards them giving it to "Blade Runner" and I certainly won't be upset as I almost went with that myself. Visually speaking, "Blade Runner" is phenomenal. I love the world that they set up in that. But c'mon man. Andy Serkis has done something truly special with motion capture as those apes in "War" look real. 

Sound Editing:

Nominations:

- "Baby Driver" - Julian Slater
- "Blade Runner 2049" - Mark Mangini & Theo Green
- "Dunkirk" - Richard King & Alex Gibson
- "The Shape of Water" - Nathan Robitaille & Nelson Ferreira
- "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" - Matthew Wood & Ren Klyce

Will Win:

- "Dunkirk" - Richard King & Alex Gibson

Should Win:

- "Baby Driver" - Julian Slater

I really love that "Baby Driver" was given some love in this category, because it's well deserved. And I really want the Academy to give both these sound Oscars to "Baby Driver" as Edgar Wright crafted something extremely special here. But I have a feeling that both of these will instead go to "Dunkirk." And I won't be mad at that. I may have my reservations towards the movie as a whole, but I can't argue with the idea that a lot of the technical aspects of the movie are amazing. If there's ever a war film in this category, I have no problem with it winning because I envision that the sound design takes quite a bit of effort to make the movie work.

Sound Mixing:

Nominations:

- "Baby Driver" - Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin & Mary H. Ellis
- "Blade Runner 2049" - Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill & Mac Ruth
- "Dunkirk" - Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker & Gary A. Rizzo
- "The Shape of Water" - Christian Cooke, Bran Zoern & Glen Gautheir
- "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" - David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce & Stuart Wilson

Will Win:

- "Dunkirk" - Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker & Gary A. Rizzo

Should Win:

- "Baby Driver" - Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin & Mary H. Ellis

Believe it or not, this is the first time that these two categories have had the exact same nominations. And I have a feeling that they might split it, giving "Dunkirk" one and "Baby Driver" the other, but I have no idea which one to predict in where, so I'm going to play it safe and just predict that "Dunkirk" wins both, because that could very well happen, too.

Makeup and Hairstyling:

Nominations:

- "Darkest Hour" - Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski & Lucy Sibbick
- "Victoria & Abdul" - Daniel Phillips & Lou Sheppard
- "Wonder" - Arden Tuiten

Will Win:

- "Darkest Hour" - Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski & Lucy Sibbick

Should Win:

- "Darkest Hour" - Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski & Lucy Sibbick

Spoiler alert. Gary Oldman is going to win an Oscar. We'll get to that one in a bit, but a huge part of the reason why his performance was so believable is because they managed to make Oldman look like Winston Churchill when the two look absolutely nothing alike. So this HAS to go to "Darkest Hour," right? But if "Wonder" gets an Oscar win, I won't be upset.

Film Editing:

Nominations:

- "Baby Driver" - Paul Machliss & Jonathan Amos
- "Dunkirk" - Lee Smith
- "I, Tonya" - Tatiana S. Riegel
- "The Shape of Water" - Sidney Wolinksy
- "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" - Jon Gregory

Will Win:

- "Baby Driver" - Paul Machliss & Jonathan Amos

Should Win:

- "Baby Driver" - Paul Machliss & Jonathan Amos

Editing in a film is often hard to notice because when they make they movie flow seamlessly without the viewer noticing all the cuts in the film, they've done their job. But occasionally a movie comes around where the editing was so sharp that you can't help but notice and be absolutely stunned. Such is the case with "Baby Driver." The way those scenes were edited took my breath away. The way that "I, Tonya" was edited was also pretty clever, so that would probably be my No. 2. I'm going off on a limb here to say that the Academy also noticed and will reward "Baby Driver." I do think it'll get something and since I predicted "Dunkirk" in both sound categories, I'm predicting "Baby Driver" will get the win. Although this category does sometimes go with a best picture nominee, so if either "Three Billboards" or "The Shape of Water" sweeps the night, they could pick up this one along the way.

Costume Design:

Nominations:

- "Beauty and the Beast" - Jacqueline Durran
- "Darkest Hour" - Jacqueline Durran
- "Phantom Thread" - Mark Bridges
- "The Shape of Water" - Luis Sequeira
- "Victoria & Abdul" - Consolata Boyle

Will Win:

- "Phantom Thread" - Mark Bridges

Should Win:

- "Phantom Thread" - Mark Bridges

The movie about costume design is going to win the Oscar for best costume design, right? Do we even need to discuss this? Although I personally liked Belle's dress, so I'd be cool with giving that an Oscar. And we do have some good period pieces thrown in there as well, so this is a good category. Question, though. Does the fish suit in "The Shape of Water" count as a costume or as visual effects? Because I'll fully admit that was a pretty sweet design.

Cinematography:

Nominations:

- "Blade Runner 2049" - Roger Deakins
- "Darkest Hour" - Bruno Delbonnel
- "Dunkirk" - Hoyte van Hoytema
- "Mudbound" - Rachel Morrison
- "The Shape of Water" - Dan Lausten

Will Win:

- "Blade Runner 2049" - Roger Deakins

Should Win:

- "Blade Runner 2049" - Roger Deakins

For crying out loud, can when give Roger Deakins his Oscar already? This is the perfect time to do it because his work in "Blade Runner" may be some of his best work. It wouldn't just be a career achievement award. I examine these five movies and this is easily the best of the bunch, with "Dunkirk" coming in a distant second for me. I worry that they may give this to "The Shape of Water," which might cause me to throw something at my T.V. 

Production Design:

Nominations:

- "Beauty and the Beast" - Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer
- "Blade Runner 2049" - Dennis Gassner & Alessandra Querzola
- "Darkest Hour" - Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer
- "Dunkirk" - Nathan Crowley & Gary Fettis
- "The Shape of Water" - Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau & Melvin

Will Win:

- "The Shape of Water" - Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau & Melvin

Should Win:

- "Blade Runner 2049" - Dennis Gassner & Alessandra Querzola

I think it's possible that "The Shape of Water" sneaks in and steals a bunch of these technical categories away from some of the more deserving films. This category feels like the strongest category where it may do so, so that's why I'm predicting it to win. And I suppose I can't complain too much. There's good work there. But again, everything about the visuals, cinematography and set design of "Blade Runner" took my breath away, even though I felt the movie itself kinda retreaded worn out themes. The movie was a marvel to behold on the big screen, so it deserves these wins. I hope it at least gets a couple of them.

Animated Feature Film:

Nominations:

- "The Boss Baby" - DreamWorks
- "The Breadwinner" - GKIDS
- "Coco" - Pixar
- "Ferdinand" - Blue Sky
- "Loving Vincent" - Good Deed Entertainment

Will Win:

- "Coco" - Pixar

Should Win:

- "Coco" - Pixar

This is the easiest category to predict. Of course "Coco" is going to win. And it's deserved. But if you haven't seen "The Breadwinner," it's currently up on Netflix and is an amazing animated film that's well deserved of this nomination. Unlike two other movies listed here. I mean, come on. I know this was a fairly weak year for animation, but there were better choices than "The Boss Baby" and "Ferdinand." You can't look me in the eyes and tell me that either of those movies are better than "The LEGO Batman Movie." If you did, I would consider slapping you because that's an offense to film. Heck, I'd take "Captain Underpants" instead or another foreign film or two. Speaking of which, whenever "Loving Vincent" becomes available to watch, I totally want to check that one out. As of now, though, it hasn't been available.

Adapted Screenplay:

Nominations:

- "Call Me by Your Name" - James Ivory
- "The Disaster Artist" - Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
- "Logan" - Scott Frank, James Mangold & Michael Green
- "Molly's Game" - Aaron Sorkin
- "Mudbound" - Virgin Williams & Dee Rees

Will Win:

- "Call Me by Your Name" - James Ivory

Should Win:

- "Logan" - Scott Frank, James Mangold & Michael Green

This feels like an easy category to predict. "Call Me by Your Name" is a well loved film. For good reason, might I add. The Academy also loves it as they gave it several major nominations. Yet in most categories, they won't be able to give it the win due to something else, so this is their chance to give it a win. The other four feel like courtesy nominations. If I'm picking my personal favorite, though, of course I'm taking "Logan." That's one of the best superhero films ever made and that screenplay, which was adapted from a well-loved comic in "Old Man Logan," is something special. They way they wrote the characters for Logan and Charles Xavier and intertwined them with all the other characters in such a beautiful story managed to successfully transcend the superhero genre. If it were up to me, I would've given it a lot more love. Nominations for Hugh Jackman, Patrick Stewart and of course a best picture nomination. But hey, at least they gave it one nomination. That's progress.

Original Screenplay:

Nominations:

- "The Big Sick" - Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
- "Get Out" - Jordan Peele
- "Lady Bird" - Greta Gerwig
- "The Shape of Water" - Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor
- "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" - Martin McDonagh

Will Win:

- "Get Out" - Jordan Peele

Should Win:

- "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" - Martin McDonagh

Unlike the adapted screenplay section, original screenplay is a lot more tricky this year because that's where all the heavy hitters have landed. As far as the winner, this is usually attached to the best picture winner, but not always. With how uncertain this race is, they could decide to spread the love here. Or they could give everything to one of our three favorites. You'll have to continue reading to see which one I've settled with there, but I am not so confidently leaning on them deciding to let Jordan Peele have his turn on the stage here. I really want to see that happen in some form on Oscar night. As far as my personal pick, this is even trickier because I'm judging the screenplay, not the movie as a whole. And with some of these movies, I think they succeeded because of solid acting and directing while on paper the movie could've read as quite basic. But "Three Billboards" has such a complex story that goes in so many different directions with layered characters. Yes, the directing and acting is solid. But out of this group, I feel the writing itself is what makes the movie work.

Actress in a Supporting Role:

Nominations:

- Mary J. Blige - "Mudbound"
- Allison Janney - "I, Tonya"
- Lesley Manville - "Phantom Thread"
- Laurie Metcalf - "Lady Bird"
- Octavia Spencer - "The Shape of Water"

Will Win:

- Allison Janney - "I, Tonya"

Should Win:

- Laurie Metcalf - "Lady Bird"

The acting categories have been pretty straight forward this season. There's a big four in play that have been winning everything so far and I'm not going to predict an upset, although I'll be interested to see if the Academy surprises us. Quickly on Mary J. Blige, Lesley Manville and Octavia Spencer, all three of those ladies gave good performances, but I didn't think any one of them gave Oscar-worthy performances. And neither have any chance of winning. So it's Janney vs. Metcalf. I'm playing the odds with my official prediction because Janney has been winning everything so far, but with my personal prediction, it came down to which mom performance I liked best. Janney did an amazing job, but I think it's slightly easier to play someone is grouchy and angry in every scene, whereas Metcalf gave a deep, layered performance. "Lady Bird" worked so well for me partially because of how perfect this performance was in helping me completely buy this honest, real relationship. 

Actor in a Supporting Role:

Nominations:

- Willem Dafoe - "The Florida Project"
- Woody Harrelson - "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
- Richard Jenkins - "The Shape of Water"
- Christopher Plummer - "All the Money in the World
- Sam Rockwell - "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Will Win:

- Sam Rockwell - "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Should Win:

- Christopher Plummer - "All the Money in the World

I hear Willem Dafoe did an amazing job in "The Florida Project." I'm upset that I missed that movie, especially because he could win. As soon as it becomes available to me on DVD or on a streaming platform, I plan on giving it a shot. Yet Sam Rockwell has been winning everything, so I'm again playing the odds here. I really loved his character arc in "Three Billboards" with how complex he was. If you label as the racist cop and leave it at that, I think you missed the point. Yet I'm picking Christopher Plummer as my personal favorite because I there's something special there. Not only does recasting Kevin Spacey send a message to Hollywood that sexual misconduct will not be allowed, but Plummer absolutely owned that role, to the point where I can't see anyone else playing the character. He was perfect. And he did such a great job in such a small amount of time, which was even more impressive to me. I do have to give a shout-out to Michael Stuhlbarg from "Call Me by Your Name," though. Had he been nominated, he might've been my pick here. Yet sadly he got snubbed.

Actress in a Leading Role:

Nominations:

- Sally Hawkins - "The Shape of Water"
- Frances McDormand - "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
- Margot Robbie - "I, Tonya"
- Saoirse Ronan - "Lady Bird"
- Meryl Streep - "The Post"

Will Win:

- Frances McDormand - "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Should Win:

- Frances McDormand - "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Saoirse Ronan's character in "Lady Bird" was by far the character I connected most with this year. But I'm not judging best character here. I'm judging best performance. When I watched "Three Billboards" back around Thanksgiving, I walked out of that theater thinking that we should just give Frances McDormand the gold trophy right then. And I saw that movie AFTER "Lady Bird." I decided, though, that I should be fair and give everyone else a shot to impress me before I jump to conclusions. But no. I never found a female lead role that I enjoyed more. And apparently everyone agrees with me because she's been winning everything, so why pick against here? If the unthinkable happened and an upset did occur, then I would lean towards it being Sally Hawkins if "The Shape of Water" does a complete sweep on the night.

Actor in a Leading Role:

Nominations:

- Timothée Chalamet - "Call Me by Your Name"
- Daniel Day-Lews - "Phantom Thread"
- Daniel Kaluuya - "Get Out"
- Gary Oldman - "Darkest Hour"
- Denzel Washington - "Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Will Win:

- Gary Oldman - "Darkest Hour"

Should Win:

- Gary Oldman - "Darkest Hour"

I will fully admit that I am a sucker for actors perfectly pulling off a beloved historical character. Thus when it comes to Oldman, his suit that will win "Darkest Hour" best makeup and hairstyling was only half of the story here. Yes, they made him look like Winston Churchill. But Oldman also perfectly captured his voice, style and mannerisms. Luckily we live in a day where YouTube exists and Churchill is recent enough for actual footage of his speeches to have been recorded. When you go listen to real Churchill speeches, then watch the movie "Darkest Hour," you'll be shocked at how perfect this imitation was from Oldman. Thus for me this makes it easy to pick. No one came close. And Oldman has literally won everything. It's like all the awards voters got together months ago and predetermined that Oldman was going to win everything. In a distant second place, I do have to give a shout-out to internet favorite Timothée Chalamet, who completely blew me away in "Call Me by Your Name." He'd be my pick if Oldman wasn't here. And if this is truly Daniel Day-Lewis' last role, he went out on a high note with another great performance in "Phantom Thread."

Directing:

Nominations:

- Paul Thomas Anderson - "Phantom Thread"
- Guillermo del Toro - "The Shape of Water"
- Greta Gerwig - "Lady Bird"
- Christopher Nolan - "Dunkirk"
- Jordan Peele - "Get Out"

Will Win:

- Guillermo del Toro - "The Shape of Water"

Should Win:

- Greta Gerwig - "Lady Bird"

Regardless of what happens in the best picture race that has me completely in the dark, Guillermo is taking home his trophy. This is another category where I'm playing the odds because he's been winning everything. And I can't argue too much with that, even though I personally would pick Gerwig, Jordan Peele and PTA instead. This was a tough choice for my personal favorite as I think there was great directing work all around, but with "Lady Bird" being my favorite movie of the year, I give most of the credit to Greta Gerwig for having a vision for this movie and directing it in such a way to make it feel like a personal story, not just for her as someone from Sacramento, but for everyone. The characters. The story. The way everything flowed. The way the story was constructed. All the little details and decisions that added together to make it work. It was all on her as the director. Even all the acting in the movie was because the whole cast bought into her version for this movie. If that's not worthy of best director, I don't know what is. And yes, it would be cool to see a female win this award. But that's not the reason why I picked her as who I want to win.

Best Picture:

Nominations:

- "Call Me by Your Name" - Sony Pictures Classics
- "Darkest Hour" - Focus Features
- "Dunkirk" - Warner Bros.
- "Get Out" - Universal
- "Lady Bird" - A24
- "Phantom Thread" - Focus Features
- "The Post" - 20th Century Fox
- "The Shape of Water" - Fox Searchlight
- "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" - Fox Searchlight

Will Win:

- "Get Out" - Universal

Should Win:

- "Lady Bird" - A24

I've never been so conflicted in trying to predict the best picture winner. Usually I'm able to detect a favorite going into the night, but all I know this time is that it's between "Three Billboards," "The Shape of Water" and "Get Out." Yet I literally have no idea which one is going to win. "Three Billboards" has won the more of the other awards ceremonies, but the Academy didn't give it best director, which throws me off. And there's a lot of racist controversy that could knock it down. "The Shape of Water" has the most nominations this year, so do I go with that? But hey, "La La Land" had even more nominations last year and didn't win, so I'm not fully convinced there. They could just hand Guillermo best director and call it good. Yet I think what's ended up swaying me the most is this idea of preferential voting, which is explained in that link right there. The gist of it is that the Academy voters rank the nominations from best to worst. The winner isn't necessarily the movie that had the highest percentage of initial first place votes. It's the movie that's consistently higher up on more ballots. The least disliked movie, if you will. With how consistent the praise has been for "Get Out" across the board, I think it fits that specific bill best.

And do I really need to explain why my personal pick is "Lady Bird"? It was my favorite movie of 2017. And when my favorite movie of the year is nominated for best picture, well that's the easiest choice of the night. Yet for as long as I have been following the Oscars, my favorite movie of the year has never won best picture, so that declaration back in January essentially disqualified "Lady Bird" from winning the award. If you want more on why I love "Lady Bird," feel free to dig up my review or my favorite movies of 2017 list.