Movie Preview: April 2018

Normally the month of March is considered early summer, especially the last couple of years with "Beauty and the Beast," "Logan" and "Kong: Skull Island" leading the way to a record-breaking March 2017 that earned a total of $1.17 billion at the domestic box office, while "Zootopia" and "Batman v. Superman" led March 2016 to a $948.7 million total. March 2018 came in significantly lower than both of those totals with just $890.8 million, and the only reason it even got that high was the continued historic run of "Black Panther," now the highest grossing superhero movie ever in the United States, which added $219 million in March. Take that away and this would be the lowest grossing March since 2009 with just $671.8 million as no new release was able to top $100 million and "Ready Player One" might be the only wide release to eventually hit that mark. Although it's worth noting that Hollywood tried to make it another big March. It's just that "Red Sparrow," "A Wrinkle in Time," "Tomb Raider" and "Pacific Rim Uprising" all fell flat on their faces. April 2018 will still probably continue to coast in mostly mediocrity, that is until "Avengers: Infinity War" will usher in the summer movie season a week early than normal. So let's explore what we have on the table this month!

April 6th - 8th-

Slowly building up a lot of steam in 2018 thanks to an excellent marketing effort and phenomenal early reviews is John Krasinski's new horror film A Quiet Place. Similar to Jordan Peele with "Get Out" last year, Krasinksi has typically been a comedy actor who is with little directing experience, so he's not someone you'd expect to step up and direct a horror film. Also like Peele, it appears that Krasinski stepping outside his comfort zone to try something new is going to work out big time. I mean, it might not result in a best original screenplay win at the Oscars, but its near perfect score on Rotten Tomatoes and strong pre-release buzz seem to indicate a strong opening weekend and a very healthy run at the box office that could match recent horror films like "Annabelle: Creation," which opened to $35 million on its way to $102 million total, or "Just Breathe," which opened to $26 million on its way to $89 million total. In a Wired Autocomplete interview posted on YouTube on April 4, Krasinksi said this movie is a love letter to his kids as what got him into directing it was not the scares, but rather the idea of family and what would you do to protect your kids. Though scares is what this looks to bring as the characters in the movie have to remain perfectly silent to remain safe.

Also building up a lot of steam in recent weeks is the comedy Blockers, which currently holds a certified fresh score in the low-80's on Rotten Tomatoes, meaning this is looking to be a real crowd-pleaser. The movie stars John Cena, Leslie Mann and Ike Barinholtz as a trio of parents who learn that their teenage daughters are planning to lose their virginity on prom night and thus go on a mission to try to stop them. Adult-targeted comedy has been a bit sparse recently, thus is why with solid reviews out of the South by Southwest film festival a few weeks ago, "Blockers" is looking to take advantage of the dried up market. So far in 2018, the only adult comedy that has been released has been February's "Game Night," which is wrapping up its release after opening up to $17 million on the weekend of February 23. "Blockers" is currently tracking a bit ahead of "Game Night," meaning other similar titles for opening weekend could be "Snatched" ($19.5 million), "Baywatch" ($18.5 million) or "Bad Moms" ($23.8 million). A best case scenario could be last year's "Girl's Trip" ($31.2 million).

Opening in around 1,700 theaters this weekend is the sports drama The Miracle Season. Speaking of a sparse genre, there really hasn't been many sports dramas at all to open recently as the last one to open in more than 1,000 theaters was "Eddie the Eagle" back in February 2016. "The Miracle Season" depicts the true story of Iowa City West High School's women's volleyball team, who were looking to repeat as state champions, after winning the previous season, when their team captain, Caroline "Line" Found tragically died. After this happened, the girls came together as a team to try to win the title for their teammate and friend. "The Miracle Season" is directed by Sean McNamara, the director of the 2011 film "Soul Surfer," and stars Helen Hunt, who also starred in "Soul Surfer," as the volleyball coach. Using "Soul Surfer" as a comparison, that movie opened to $10.6 million in 2,200 theaters. If "The Miracle Season" matched that per theater average, that would equate to a $8.2 million opening weekend, which might be a bit high. Looking at the aforementioned "Eddie the Eagle," following that movie's per theater average would give "The Miracle Season" $5.1 million. And finally, following the per theater average of "Woodlawn" would give it $4.4 million.

Opening up in around 1,500 theaters is the Entertainment Studios drama Chappaquiddick. This is a movie that tells the true story surrounding the mysterious events when Ted Kennedy drove his car off the Dike Bridge, resulting in the drowning of aspiring political strategist Mary Jo Kopechne. The movie is directed by John Curran and stars Jason Clarke as Ted Kennedy and Kate Mara as Mary Jo Kopechne as well as Ed Helms, Bruce Dern and Jim Gaffigan. It initially premiered at last year's Toronto International Film Festival, where is was purchased by Entertainment Studios for $4 million and was initially scheduled for a December release date last year, indicating that it was going to get an awards season push. However, Entertainment Studios then decided to reschedule for this weekend instead, perhaps indicating a lack of confidence that it could actually be a real player at the Oscars, which isn't a good sign for the movie's potential moving forward. It does have a decent Rotten Tomatoes score from the critics at 80 percent from 70 reviews, but the audience score is a less encouraging 63 percent, which matches up with the IMDb grade of 6.5. Thus with mixed reaction and no awards buzz, "Chappaquiddick" might struggle to find an audience.

April 13th - 15th-

Before Marvel rescheduled "Infinity War" to land in April, the previous major tentpole release for this month was Warner Bros.' Rampage. This is a movie based on the 80's arcade game where users control various giant monsters, including a giant gorilla named George, a giant Godzilla-like lizard/dinosaur named Lizzie and a giant werewolf named Ralph, with the goal of destroying the city, which includes knocking over the buildings and eating the people, before the government agency stops them. The movie has the same absurd premise with the same three giant animals attacking, except for the giant Godzilla-like lizard/dinosaur is a giant crocodile. Dwayne Johnson is in the lead role as he's trying stop the animals from destroying the city while figuring out who mutated them. Recent history has told us repeatedly that it's a bad idea to underestimate a Dwayne Johnson film at the box office, with this past Christmas' "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" being the most recent example. "Rampage" has Dwayne Johnson reuniting with "San Andreas" director Brad Peyton, a movie that surprised in a huge way with a $54.6 million opening, a number that pre-release tracking for "Rampage" is slowly sneaking up on. Don't be surprised if "Rampage" ends up coming close to that.

The second horror film being released this month is the teenage-targeted Truth or Dare. This is a movie directed by Jeff Wadlow, director of "Kick-A-- 2," and centers around the popular teen game truth or dare. The catch with this version of the game in this movie is that those who tell a lie or refuse to do the dare are punished by some supernatural occurrence. Starring in the movie are a bunch of potentially lesser-known, younger actors including Lucy Hale ("Pretty Little Liars"), Tyler Posey ("Teen Wolf") and Violett Beane ("The Flash"). Despite opening a weekend after "A Quiet Place," which could hurt it if word of mouth for the John Kransinski film is strong, "Truth or Dare" could still do well if the teenage crowd shows up as the two horror films are targeting slightly different audiences. Blumhouse Productions is the production company here, and although they've released a wide variety of different horrors and thrillers, a potential comparison could be their release of last year's "Happy Death Day," which attracted teens to the theaters during Halloween season to the tune of $26 million opening weekend. Another comparison if "Truth or Dare" doesn't breakout that high is the 2016 teen-targeted thriller "Nerve," which opened to $9.4 million.

There's two other smaller releases scheduled for this weekend, currently listed for wide release on Box Office Mojo, although neither movie has had much of a marketing effort, so the exact theater count is a mystery at this point. Nevertheless, those two movies are Borg vs. McEnroe, a movie about the famous tennis rivalry between Bjorn Borg and John McEnroe in the 1980's, and Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero, an animated movie telling the true story of a stray Boston Terrier who wandered into a military camp during World War I and wound up becoming an American hero and the first dog to be promoted to the rank of Sergeant in the United States Army. "Borg vs. McEnroe" premiered during the 2017 Toronto International Film Festival to decent reviews and was purchased by Neon, a new distribution company who released "I, Tonya." Yet Neon has never opened a movie in wide release. "Sgt. Stubby" is being released by Fun Academy and this is their first ever theatrical release. Thus is why the theater count and box office potential for both is a current mystery.

Also, this weekend will see the nationwide expansion of Wes Anderson's latest stop motion film Isle of Dogs, which has experienced a very successful limited release run as it earned $1.6 million from just 27 theaters on its opening weekend on March 23-25 and nearly broke the top 10 in its second weekend with $2.9 million from 165 theaters. It expanded to around 550 theaters in its third weekend, April 6-8, before this scheduled nationwide expansion. Wes Anderson's "Fantastic Mr. Fox" expanded into 2,033 theaters in its nationwide release while "The Grand Budapest Hotel" eventually hit 1,467 at its peak theater count. So that's what "Isle of Dogs" will probably experience. This movie was discussed in more detail in last month's movie preview, so head over there for more information. 

April 20th - 22nd- 

There was initially more movies scheduled for the final two weekends of April, but they smartly scattered when Marvel announced they were releasing "Infinity War" a week earlier than initially planned. Thus we are left with only one major wide release this weekend and two smaller releases hoping to provide some counter-programming to "Infinity War." That major wide release is the comedy I Feel Pretty. This is a movie starring Amy Schumer, who is perceived in this universe as being super ugly because she is "fat." Yet after bumping her head, she begins to think that she is super skinny and thus super pretty, giving her all sorts of confidence that baffles everyone around her. While intended on being a funny comedy, the internet didn't seem to get the joke after the initial trailer dropped as this movie rather instantly received a ton of most-likely well-deserved backlash that is detailed in a Cosmopolitan article that I just linked right there. Long story short, the movie is being accused of all sorts of fat-shaming, which is especially problematic considering Amy Schumer isn't a fat woman. Whether or not the casual audiences are aware of this backlash, or are bothered by it, is another story. Meaning this could still perform well if the release of "Blockers" earlier in the month doesn't steal all of its thunder.

The first of the two smaller releases that I mentioned previously is Super Troopers 2. And by smaller releases in this instance, I mean movies that will probably be getting a more moderate theater count somewhere around 1,000, maybe 2,000, theaters that are looking at a weekend that may end up less than $5 million. When it comes to "Super Troopers 2," this is a movie that is being released 16 years after its predecessor, which only earned $18.5 million domestically following a $6.2 million opening weekend back in 2002. It was mostly panned by critics, which may have led to its subpar box office total. Although it has gained enough of a cult following since its initial release to justify this eventual sequel, which many of the fans of the original have been waiting a long time for. However, comedy sequels arriving 10+ years after the initial movie have had a poor track record, as has been evidenced by the likes of "Anchorman 2," "Dumb and Dumber To, "Bad Santa 2" and "My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2," all of which were generally disliked by fans of the original movies. So that trend might be cause for concern for "Super Trooper" fans. Both movies are centered around the general premise of a team of officers more focused on pranks than real police work.

The second of the two smaller films is the thriller Traffik. This movie is directed by Deon Taylor, director of the 2016 comedy "Meet the Blacks" and stars Paula Patton and Omar Epps as a couple who initially just want a romantic getaway in the mountains. Yet their vacation is spoiled when they run into a motorcycle gang at a gas station and accidentally come into the possession of a phone that is important to a group of sex traffics. This motorcycle gang wants that phone back and will stop and nothing to get it from this couple. This seems like a potentially intense movie with a decent premise. However, the late-April release date doesn't speak a whole lot of confidence to the movie. Even super good reviews might not be enough to make much of a dent. If the reviews come in as negative, then this could be dead on arrival.

April 27th - 29th-

While there is some breakout potential with some of these titles this month, the obvious movie of the month, at least in terms of box office, is Avengers: Infinity War, which was initially scheduled to be Marvel's May opener, as it's tradition for Marvel to open up the official summer movie season on the first weekend of May, but they decided last minute to forgo that May spot and move this movie up a weekend, which caused everything else to scatter. The reason for the move was likely to add some additional breathing room between this movie and Disney's fellow release in late May of "Solo: A Star Wars Story." That and Fox decided to move "Deadpool 2" up to the weekend before "Solo" instead of the weekend after "Solo." So instead of there being just one weekend in between the two superhero movies, there is now two weekends in between. And even though it might seem strange for this to be released in April due to it usually being a quiet month at the box office, this isn't the first time Marvel has released a movie in April as "Captain America: The Winter Soldier" was an early April release. The "Fast and Furious" franchise has also enjoyed April as they released the fourth, fifth, seventh and eighth movies in April. Disney also released "The Jungle Book" book in April.

It also almost goes without saying that this will be one of the biggest movie events of this decade as nearly everything Marvel has done thus far in the MCU has led up to this point as the Tesseract, which is the first infinity stone, was introduced back in "Captain America: The First Avenger" in 2011 with Thanos being teased at the end credits of "The Avengers" in 2012. The idea is that once Thanos gets all six infinity stones, he puts them in the infinity gauntlet and has all the power in the world. Since that first "Captain America" movie, the other infinity stones have been introduced throughout the MCU with only one left to discover, that being the Soul Stone. "Infinity War" is actually the first of a two part story arc involving Thanos and the infinity stones and was initially titled "Infinity War - Part I" before Marvel canned the Part I/Part II idea with the title and simply called this movie "Infinity War" while the conclusion, which is currently scheduled for May 2019, doesn't yet have a title. Or, rather, Marvel doesn't want to reveal the title yet because that could end up spoiling "Infinity War."

As far as how much money this will make opening weekend, a $200 million opening weekend seems like a foregone conclusion while the $247 million opening weekend record set by "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" isn't out of the question as the pre-sales numbers right now are through the roof. Speaking of "Star Wars," though, a safer bet might be one closer to the $220 million opening weekend of "The Last Jedi." As far as what this movie's final domestic total will end up being, that will likely be determined by what the reaction to the movie is. If the movie is as good as everyone hopes it will be, then the reign of "Black Panther" as the highest grossing superhero movie domestically might be short lived, although it's worth noting that both "Captain America: Civil War" and "Avengers: Age of Ultron" were both rather frontloaded, despite being mostly well-received films. So don't be surprised if this opens to $220 million, yet ends up with "only" $530 million total, which is what it would get if it followed the multiplier of "Age of Ultron." Nor should you make fun of the movie for being a "flop" if it fails to top "The Avengers" or "Black Panther." That would make you look quite silly.