Saturday, December 8, 2018

Movie Preview: December 2018

We are now entering the final month of 2018. Awards season is well underway as nominations and awards are already being handed out left and right, giving us a clue as to who is contention for the big awards when the Academy hands out their nominations in January, ahead of their ceremony in February. Thanksgiving is in the rear view mirror and now the world is preparing for Christmas. November kicked off the holiday season quite well, becoming the fourth November on record to cross the $1 billion mark and second in a row after 2017 also hit the milestone. November was also the sixth month of 2018 to cross $1 billion, breaking the record previously held by several different years at five months, with one month left to go. Leading the way domestically in November was "Dr. Suess' The Grinch" with $189.7 million, followed by "Bohemian Rhapsody" with $158.6 million and "The Crimes of Grindelwald" with $126.2 million. "Ralph Breaks the Internet" and "Creed II" also opened well during Thanksgiving, but still have most of their runs ahead of them. December won't be as big as previous years given that there's no Star Wars film being released, but there's still plenty of other big films to talk about with their being quite the busy schedule, so let's begin!

December 7th- 

Quick note on this month. Usually I organize these by weekend. However, the release schedule for movies this month is all over the place, so I'm going to abandon my typical weekend format and sort things by the day of each movie's release, rather than the weekend. Also of note, there are no new wide releases on the first weekend of this month, meaning that "Ralph Breaks the Internet" is about to take its third straight weekend title, mostly by default as there was only one small wide release on the final weekend of November. "Ralph Breaks the Internet" will be followed by "The Grinch," "Creed II," "The Crimes of Grindelwald" and "Bohemian Rhapsody," all making up the top five. That said, there is one notable new entry, although it's not a new release, but rather is the re-release of Steven Spielberg's classic film Schindler's List into 1,181 theaters in honor of its 25th anniversary. The last Spielberg film to get this re-release treatment was "The Close Encounters of the Third Kind" in September 2017 in honor of its 40th anniversary. That released in 901 theaters and opened to $1.7 million. If "Schindler's List" pulled in a similar per theater, that would give it about $2.3 million for the weekend, making it a contender for the weekend top 10.

December 12th- 

The second film we're talking about this month is also a re-release and not a new release, albeit from this year as Fox is re-releasing the PG-13 cut of "Deadpool 2," officially titling it Once Upon a Deadpool. The idea for this re-cut came from Ryan Reynolds himself following the release of "Deadpool 2," using the "Princess Bride" format to edit out the necessary language and violence to create the PG-13 version. In regards to "Princess Bride," Fred Savage himself was brought on for the re-cut, he being the kid from "Princess Bride" who was having his grandfather read him a story. The new scenes were shot in a single day in August. In September, Fox then announced an untitled Deadpool project to be released in December, which was rumored to be this re-cut version of "Deadpool 2." Said rumors were officially confirmed in November, with the movie getting a short 12-day release from December 12 through December 24, playing in about 500 theaters nationwide. Box office comparisons are understandably sparse here, but "The King's Speech" in 2010 also had a PG-13 re-release a few months after its initial release and that opened to $1.1 million in 1,011 theaters. For each ticket sold, Fox will donate $1 to the "Fudge Cancer" charity campaign.

December 14th- 

Following the release of "Once Upon a Deadpool" on Wednesday, the second weekend of December sees three new releases looking to take advantage of the completely empty market at this point before the major December releases come to play the following week. Leading things off will be the highly anticipated release of Sony's Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. There was some initial skepticism with this project from fans, as this animated Spider-Man is hitting theaters not too long after "Spider-Man: Homecoming" became our third version of the classic web-slinger this century. Was this Sony's backup plan to keep the rights to the character in case "Homecoming" failed? Well, skepticism went down when early trailers wowed fans and now all that skepticism seems to be gone as early reviews have praised this movie to the high heavens, as it currently holds a 99 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes with 82 reviews counted. "Into the Spider-Verse" will be the first screen introduction of Miles Morales as Spider-Man, which is a big deal in and of itself. But Miles won't be the only Spider-Man as Peter Parker, Spider Gwen, Peni Parker, Spider-Noir and even Spider-Ham will show up as they all try to get back to their respective universes, with Kingpin being the villain.

Hoping to jump on the awards season buzz a bit late will be Clint Eastwood with his new film The Mule. This screenplay for this movie is based on the 2011 New York Times article "The Sinaloa's Cartel's 90-Year-Old Drug Mule" by Sam Dolnick, wherein DEA Special Agent Jeff Moore was interviewed regarding the investigation of Leo Sharp, a former World War II veteran who became a drug dealer and courier for the Sinaloa Cartel while in his 80's. The rights to the article were sold to Imperative Entertainment in 2014. After a few years of discussion and planning, Clint Eastwood became attached as star, director and producer of the film in January 2018, with filming beginning in June 2018. With the late production, the movie is at a disadvantage when it comes to the awards season as it skipped the festival run and has no awards nominations as of yet, possibly because screeners may not have been sent out to voters. Even with no awards, it will hope to catch on with general audiences as movies centered around drug cartels have done well recently, with one major example being last year's "American Made," which opened to $16.8 million. "The Mule" is Eastwood's first lead acting role since "Trouble with the Curve" in 2012.

Coming in at the rear this weekend will be the Peter Jackson produced film Mortal Engines, which is being heavily advertised as being "from the filmmakers of 'Lord of the Rings.'" While not an inaccurate statement by any means, this has been slightly deceiving as it's leading people to believe that Peter Jackson is directing this movie, which is not correct. The movie is being directed by Christian Rivers, who worked in the visual effects and storyboard departments for "Lord of the Rings." This will be his first directorial feature. It does have the same team of writers as "Lord of the Rings" and Peter Jackson is on board to produce, but he's not the director here, which is kind of a big deal. The movie is of the dystopian genre, and is based on the young adult novel about a young woman who teams up with a dangerous outlaw and an outcast from London to lead a rebellion against a giant city on wheels, or a steampunk version of London. The problem here is that this genre has long since died off with most attempted starts in the last few years completely failing, so Peter Jackson trying to bring it back is probably not a good idea. The production budget here is $100 million, yet it's looking at an opening weekend in the range of $8-12 million.

December 19th- 

There are several major releases coming out on the third weekend of December, the weekend before Christmas, but the biggest release of December will be getting a head start on Wednesday and that is Mary Poppins Returns. In case you've been living under a rock in the last few years, Disney has gotten completely carried away with bringing their old classics back to the big screen with various remakes, or in this case a sequel. Many have complained at so many of these films coming out, but despite said complaints, Disney has made bank with this strategy, so they're not going to stop until people stop buying tickets. And by the looks of things, they will be hitting an absolute goldmine by bringing back Mary Poppins as early buzz is currently on fire. Just about every major awards circuit that have given out awards or nominations have included "Mary Poppins Returns" on their best picture list, leading one to believe that this is a shoe-in for a best picture nomination at the Oscars as well as a best lead actress nomination for Emily Blunt, who is taking on the mantle of Mary Poppins from Julie Andrews and reportedly doing so perfectly. This after the most recent trailer blew everyone away as it looks to bring back all the magic from "Mary Poppins." Look for this to completely break the box office and have long legs for several months to come.

December 21st- 

Releasing on the Friday before Christmas are four films, two of which come from franchises that are in desperate need for a win. The first of those two is the return of the DC Extended Universe with Aquaman. Despite the well publicized troubles of the DCEU, it is worth noting that financially they have done really well. The five films have averaged $317 million at the domestic box office, an average that's not far below the $343 million average of the MCU, which was heavily boosted by Marvel's three huge films from this year. That said, it's also worth noting that the most recent DCEU film was "Justice League," which only made $229 million, an awful number in comparison to the totals that every "Avengers" movie has made. It's also DCEU's lowest grossing film. That's why they needs a win to gain back the trust of the DC fan base, as well as comic book fans as a whole. And they are putting their trust in James Wan this time around, who has a proven track record, not only as a popular horror director, but also as an action director with "Furious 7" under his belt. The hope here for DC is that Wan takes Aquaman and delivers a movie on the quality level of a "Wonder Woman." Jason Momoa will, of course, reprise his role from "Justice League" and will be joined by Amber Heard, Willem Dafoe, Patrick Wilson, Nicole Kidman, and Dolph Lundgreen.

The other franchise that really needs a win is the "Transformers" franchise. In an attempt to do so, they are taking things in a completely new direction with the movie Bumblebee. Instead of delivering yet another sequel, which would've been the sixth movie in the main saga, they are going the prequel route, in sort of a semi-reboot fashion, by telling the origin story of the popular character of Bumblebee, casting Hailee Steinfeld is the lead female, who discovers Bumblebee in a junkyard back in 1987, shortly after her character turns 18. Now in addition to going the prequel route with this movie, the other major change they are making here is a switch in director. This will be the first modern "Transformers" movie to NOT be directed by Michael Bay. Instead, Travis Knight is at the helm. Knight worked as a lead animator for most of Laika's films and directed Laika's extremely popular animated film "Kubo and the Two Strings." This will be only his second movie he's directed and first in live action. So it's a risk that Paramount is taking here, but it's a risk that probably needs to be made after last year's "Transformers: The Last Knight" made only $130 million domestically and $605 million worldwide, both of which are franchise lows by a long shot.

Looking to compete with the two action tentpoles, as well as Disney's massive "Mary Poppins Returns," is Robert Zemeckis' latest film Welcome to Marwen. This movie stars Steve Carell and tells the true story of Mark Hogancamp, who was a victim of a violent assault. In order to help him cope, he built his own detailed world of action figures and dolls, all of whom represented a person in his life. Hogancamp's story was previously told in a 2010 documentary called "Marwencol" and a 2015 book titled "Welcome to Marwencol. The book was co-written by Hogancamp himself along with Chris Shellen. Given that Zemeckis is at the help here, he being the director of a whole slew of major hits such as "Back to the Future," "Forest Gump" and "Cast Away," this movie has the potential to be a real crowd-pleaser during the holiday season, especially given the popularity of Steve Carell. The problem here is the competition. Yes, it can easily co-exist with "Aquaman" and "Bumblebee," but the presence of "Mary Poppins Returns" is another story. The two movies might be fighting for audience and it's easy to predict which one will win out. Oscar buzz would help this movie out quite a bit, but unfortunately it's had none of that up to this point, so it remains in an awkward position.

Rounding out the slate of new releases on this date is STX Entertainment's release of Second Act. This movie is a romantic comedy starring Jennifer Lopez as Maya, an under-achieving, 40-year-old woman, working a low-paying job, who gets a second chance at a career after private financial firm hires her to handle a major business deal after a fake resume leads them to believe that she is an accomplished consultant. Co-starring along with Lopez is Vanessa Hudgens, Milo Ventimiglia and Leah Remini. The movie is directed by Peter Segal, who recently directed "Grudge Match" and "Get Smart," but is also responsible for a few 90's favorites such as "The Naked Gun 33 1/3: The Final Insult," "Tommy Boy" and "The Nutty Professor II" as well as a handful of Adam Sandler comedies in the early 2000's. So he has a prestigious enough record with various different comedies that could come in handy in pleasing people wanting a comedy during the holiday season. Given the premise, this could also capture the attention of the female audience. But like "Welcome to Marwen," the competition here is going to be tough, especially because, in terms of comedies, "Second Act" will also have to deal with "Holmes & Watson," which gets released on Christmas.

December 25th-

There's no new wide releases coming out on Friday, December 28, so our final two movies of this month are ones that will be opening right on Christmas Day. The biggest one of the two, in terms of box office anyways, is Holmes & Watson. This is a movie that got its advertising push started a bit late, so the awareness here might not be super high, but Sony will try to remedy that this month because on paper this isn't a tough sell. Sherlock Holmes is one of the more popular fictional characters, especially when it comes to the detective world, and he's had many iterations in the past that have been extremely popular. The two most notable adaptations of late are Benedict Cumberbatch's portrayal on the BBC TV series "Sherlock" and the two Guy Ritchie films starring Robert Downey Jr. as Sherlock. "Holmes & Watson" separates itself from the other Sherlock adaptations by being a comedy first and foremost as it's Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly as the classic detective duo. The two of them have been comedy gold in the past with the likes of "Talladega Nights" and "Step Brothers" and hope to bring some of that magic back for "Holmes & Watson." Out of the recent movies discussed, this has the potential to survive the competition easiest, but the movie's success will be based solely on how audiences react to the film itself.

The final movie getting a wide release is Adam McKay's Vice. This is movie is a biopic of Dick Cheney, vice president to George W. Bush, and carries with it quite the large cast, which includes Christian Bale as Dick Cheney, Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush, Steve Carrel as Donald Rumsfeld, Tyler Perry as Colin Powell, Amy Adams as Lynne Cheney, Alison Pull as Mary Cheney, as well as quite a bit more. Adam McKay previously went from comedy director ("Anchorman," "Talladega Nights," "Step Brothers," "The Other Guys") to Oscar powerhouse with the very well received film "The Big Short," which got five Oscar nominations, including best picture, best director and best supporting actor, while winning the award for best adapted screenplay. So his follow-up here has received a lot of buzz ever since it was announced and it's looking like it'll live up to that buzz with various of nominations already, including six Golden Globe nominations. So it's chances of scoring big with the Oscar nominations is quite high. In which case, this will be more of a long-term player at the box office rather set to have long legs. The easy comparison is "The Big Short," which expanded wide on Christmas, making $10 million, but wound up with $70 million overall. 

Major Limited release films:

With these monthly previews, I made the decision a while back to focus specifically on nationwide releases, mostly because covering every major limited release is a daunting task in certain months like this. But since it's Awards season, here are some of the most notable limited releases scheduled for December that will expand to varying degrees throughout December and January, based on how well they do in limited release as well as how well they do as Awards season continues:

- "Ben is Back" (Dec. 7)
- "Mary Queen of Scots" (Dec. 7)
- "Vox Lux" (Dec. 7)
- "If Beale Street Could Talk" (Dec. 14)
- "On the Basis of Sex" (Dec. 25)
- "Stan & Ollie" (Dec. 28)

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