Saturday, February 8, 2020

The 92nd Academy Awards: Predictions

It's Oscar time again! Albeit a bit earlier than I'm used to, which certainly throws me off in several categories. Usually the Oscars are in late February or early March. I'm not sure why they decided to have them in early February this year. Perhaps they just wanted to move the Oscars closer to the actual year they are honoring as opposed to getting too far into the year. For me, though, that throws me off because I usually spend a decent percentage of February catching up on some of the Oscar nominated movies that I missed. I tried to do the same this year, but I simply just ran out of time, especially since January was a bit of a busy month for me. But oh well. It is what it is. Life moves on. Even though said ceremony is a bit earlier than normal, I'm still here making my annual predictions post. As always, I'm also going to make my personal selections as to what I think should win. And that's the part that's going to be affected most by this early date. I'm going to have to abstain in more categories than I would like. As far as the predictions go, I honestly think this is going to be a straightforward year with few surprises. But if I'm wrong and I end up doing terrible with these predictions, all the better. A crazier night is often more exciting. So let's dive into these predictions!

Documentary Short Subject:

Nominations:

- "In the Absense" - Yi Seung & Gary Byung-Seok Kam
- "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) - Carol Dysinger & Elena Andreicheva
- "Life Overtakes Me" - John Haptas & Kristine Samuelson
- "St. Louis Superman" - Smriti Mundhra & Sami Khan
- "Walk Run Cha-Cha" - Laura Nix & Charlotte Sandstedt

Will Win:

- "In the Absense" - Yi Seung & Gary Byung-Seok Kam

Should Win:

- "In the Absense" - Yi Seung & Gary Byung-Seok Kam

With these predictions, we start with the smaller awards and progress forward to the bigger awards. So we start with the shorts. The short film categories I always enjoy, so it's advantageous putting them first because I can raise awareness. If you have some time to watch them, which you should since they're all fairly short, you should do so. With these documentary shorts, I've only seen three of them because "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone" and "St. Louis Superman" were two that I didn't have any access to. So of the three I've seen, "Walk Run Cha-Cha" was kinda boring, while "In the Absence" and "Life Overtakes Me" were both quite educational. I choose "In the Absence" as my personal winner because that's the one that shocked me the most and is thus the one I'm going to tell people to watch. As far as the predicted winner, I went by IMDb score last year and that worked out quite well, so I'm trying that again. With that in mind, "In the Absence" also had the highest score.

Animated Short Film:

Nominations:

- "Dcera (Daughter)" - Daria Kashcheeva
- "Hair Love" - Matthew A. Cherry & Karen Rupert Toliver
- "Kitbull" - Rosana Sullivan & Kathryn Hendrickson
- "Memorable" - Bruno Collet & JeanFrançois Le Corre
- "Sister" - Siqi Song

Will Win:

- "Kitbull" - Rosana Sullivan & Kathryn Hendrickson

Should Win:

- "Hair Love" - Matthew A. Cherry & Karen Rupert Toliver

The only two I've seen in this category are "Kitbull" and "Hair Love." The others are nowhere to be found on the internet at the moment. So it's a bit unfair for me to pick a personal favorite of the bunch. Although the two that I have seen come from Sony Pictures Animation and Pixar and that's what I'm guessing the winner is going to come down to. Kitbull is one of Pixar's SparkShorts and it as a rather adorable and emotional story about a pitbull and a black cat. "Hair Love" was shown at the beginning of "The Angry Birds Movie 2" and it was the only good part of that theatrical experience for me. Both are also on YouTube. I think voters might resonate more with the Pixar short. And it has the highest IMDb score. But "Hair Love" is a really emotional story about a dad, a daughter and their sick mom/wife. It resonated with me a little more than "Kitbull," but both are solid.

Live Action Short Film:

Nominations:

- "Brotherhood" - Meryan Joobeur & Maria Gracia Turgeon
- "Nefta Football Club" - Yves Piat & Damien Megherbi
- "The Neighbor's Window" - Marhsall Curry
- "Saria" - Bryan Buckley & Matt Lefebvre
- "A Sister" - Delphine Girard

Will Win:

- "A Sister" - Delphine Girard

Should Win:

- n/a

This is where I need to practice what I preach. I tell people to watch the shorts, but I haven't seen any of these, even though three of them are on either YouTube or Vimeo. I blame the early Oscar date for why I wasn't able to get around to these. So that makes predicting a bit hard and picking a favorite impossible. With the prediction, I'm going off my IMDb strategy here and predicting "A Sister" to win, even though I'm not quite sure what it's about. Although there's a part of me that wants to break my strategy and go for "Nefta Football Club" because I feel that one is the most accessible to people and also has a good audience reaction. But despite that, I'm sticking with "A Sister."  

International Feature Film:

Nominations:

- "Corpus Christi" - Poland
- "Honeyland" - North Macedonia
- "Les Misérables" - France
- "Pain and Glory" - Spain
- "Parasite" - South Korea

Will Win:

- "Parasite" - South Korea

Should Win:

- n/a

They changed the name of this category from best foreign film to best international feature film this year. In case you were curious. And I'm abstaining from making a pick for my personal favorite because the only one I've seen is "Parasite." Given that "Parasite" is my No. 2 film of the year, the other three would have to be quite phenomenal for me to claim in retrospect that they are better. I do want to see "Les Misérables" and "Pain and Glory," but neither have expanded far enough for me to even give them a chance, which is usually the case with this category. And "Honeyland" is going to come up again in the documentary section. I meant to watch it as it's on Hulu, but I ran out of time. "Parasite" is going to win this award, though. That's a done deal.  

Documentary Feature:

Nominations:

- "American Factory" - Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert & Jeff Reichert
- "The Cave" - Feras Fayyad, Kristine Barford & Sigrid Dyekjaer
- "The Edge of Democracy" - Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris & Tiago Pavan
- "For Sama" - Waad al-Kateab & Edward Watts
- "Honeyland" - Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska & Atanas Georgiev

Will Win:

- "For Sama" - Waad al-Kateab & Edward Watts


Should Win:

- n/a

This category sees the most immediate consequences of the early Oscar date. I didn't get around to watching any of them and they're all accessible except for "The Cave." "Honeyland" is on Hulu. "American Factory" and "The Edge of Democracy" are on Netflix. And "For Sama" is on PBS's YouTube channel. And probably also their main site. I'll get to them. I promise. But not before posting this. As far as my prediction, this one is a bit difficult as none of them jump out at me as a front runner. I can see any of them sneaking out a win. I was going to go for "Honeyland" because of the double nomination. Maybe that's a sign that the Academy really likes it? But then I looked up the reviews of all of them. I wasn't planning on using that as my method of predicting, but the reaction to "For Sama" is through the roof, so that seems like the most obvious selection. And it did win the BAFTA award for best documentary, so that's what I'm going with. Mostly, though, I'm a bit annoyed that "Apollo 11" didn't get nominated. Did the people nominating simply think that it was less of a documentary and more of some archival footage thrown together? That's the only explanation I can come up with. That's a silly reason to not nominate it, but whatever. 

Original Song:

Nominations:

- "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" - Randy Newman ("Toy Story 4")
- "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" - Elton John & Taron Egerton ("Rocketman")
- "I'm Standing with You" - Chrissy Metz ("Breakthrough")
- "Into the Unknown" - Idinia Menzel & AURORA ("Frozen 2")
- "Stand Up" - Cynthia Erivo ("Harriet")

Will Win:

- "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" - Elton John & Taron Egerton ("Rocketman")


Should Win:

- "Stand Up" - Cynthia Erivo ("Harriet")

The Academy is going to give Elton John his Oscar. That seems like a done deal. And I have no problem with that, especially since I want "Rocketman" to get recognition in some way and this was the only category where it got nominated. But when I pick my favorite from this category, I often lean on the song that made the biggest impact in its movie and "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" was only in the end credits. So what do I go with? The "Toy Story 4" song is a bit weird, so that's out. I'm a bit shocked that a little Christian film in "Breakthrough" got anything in terms of nominations, so it's not winning. Solid song, though, and good movie. So that leaves us with two. I love "Into the Unknown," but I'm not sure if it's the song from "Frozen 2" that had the biggest impact. That leaves me with "Stand Up," which is a strange selection since I haven't even seen "Harriet." But YouTube exists. And even if I throw out my philosophy of the song that had the biggest impact, this song is the best song of the bunch. Plus, in listening the the lyrics, I feel that it had to have had a big impact as the message is strong and the singer is the lead actress in the movie. Those who have seen "Harriet," am I right?

Original Score:

Nominations:

- "Joker" - Hildur Guðnadóttir
- "Little Women" - Alexandre Desplat
- "Marriage Story" - Randy Newman
- "1917" - Thomas Newman
- "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" - John Williams

Will Win:

- "Joker" - Hildur Guðnadóttir

Should Win:

- "Joker" - Hildur Guðnadóttir

This one is a tough choice. Hildur Guðnadóttir has been winning all of the precursors here, so I feel this is close to being a done deal, although I wouldn't be surprised if Thomas Newman snuck in a win given that I'm predicting a big night for "1917." As far as a personal choice, the scores for "Marriage Story" and "Little Women" are good, but feel like more traditional movie scores. And "The Rise of Skywalker" score is one of John Williams' least impressive Star Wars scores. With the other two, I've been listening to both of the scores for "Joker" and "1917" as I type up this post and I'm having a hard time choosing. Both scores made a huge impact on their movie and both scores are phenomenal. But I'm leaning ever so slightly to "Joker" here because it is the score that stands out as more unique. As great as the "1917" score is, you could probably plug that into any intense war movie and it would fit well. Hildur Guðnadóttir's score fits more specifically to "Joker." When you play it, I do feel it's one of the scores that will be immediately recognizable as coming from "Joker."  

Visual Effects:

Nominations:

- "Avengers: Endgame" - Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken & Dan Sudick
- "The Irishman" - Pable Helman, Leandro Estebecorna, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser & Stephane Grabli
- "The Lion King" - Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones & Elliot Newman
- "1917" - Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler & Dominic Tuohy
- "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" - Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach & Dominic Tuohy

Will Win:

- "1917" - Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler & Dominic Tuohy

Should Win:

- "The Lion King" - Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones & Elliot Newman

Typing that up just killed me. This is a category with four great movies and to have something as lifeless as the 2019 remake of "The Lion King" beating them would feel wrong. But I have to be objective here. "The Lion King" may have been a bad movie, but those visual effects were absolutely stunning. It looked like a national geographic documentary at times, but it was all done on a computer. That I have to give props to. As far as the winner, it does feel a bit unfair that Avengers and Star Wars are going to walk away empty handed when "1917" steals this award away as this is usually the only category that the Academy gives love to the big blockbusters. But I do think that "1917" is going to sweep a lot of the technical categories.  

Sound Editing:

Nominations:

- "Ford v Ferrari" - Donald Sylvester
- "Joker" - Alan Robert Murray
- "1917" - Oliver Tarney & Rachael Tate
- "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood" - Wylie Stateman
- "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" - Matthew Wood & David Acord

Will Win:

- "1917" - Oliver Tarney & Rachael Tate


Should Win:

- "Ford v Ferrari" - Donald Sylvester

These sound categories should go to "Ford v Ferrari" simply because of the racing sequences. I'm not the best judge of sound mixing and sound editing, but when I do my best to think about the sound, "Ford v Ferrari" is the only one that really jumps out to me. But like I said with the previous category, I feel "1917" is going to walk away with most of the technical categories. And I can't get mad at that in this instance. Creating the sound for a war film is one of the more critical elements of the genre.    

Sound Mixing:

Nominations:

- "Ad Astra" - Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson & Mark Ulano
- "Ford v Ferrari" - Pual Massey, David Giammarco & Steven A. Morrow
- "Joker" - Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic & Tod Maitland
- "1917" - Mark Taylor & Stuart Wilson
- "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood" - Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler & Mark Ulano

Will Win:

- "1917" - Mark Taylor & Stuart Wilson

Should Win:

- "Ford v Ferrari" - Pual Massey, David Giammarco & Steven A. Morrow

See my comments in the sound editing category. It's a bit redundant typing it up twice. As far as why "Ad Astra" got in on mixing while "The Rise of Skywalker" got in on editing is a bit of a mystery to me. But it's whatever. "Ad Astra" is one of the year's overlooked films, so I'm happy it got something. I think more people should go see it.  

Makeup and Hairstyling:

Nominations:

- "Bombshell" - Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan & Vivian Baker
- "Joker" - Nicki Ledermann & Kay Georgiou
- "Judy" - Jeremy Woodhead
- "Maleficent: Mistress of Evil" - Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten & David White
- "1917" - Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis & Rebecca Cole

Will Win:

- "Bombshell" - Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan & Vivian Baker

Should Win:

- "Bombshell" - Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan & Vivian Baker

I mean, do I even have to have seen "Bombshell" in order to say it deserves this win? If so, I'm sorry. Because that's what I'm doing. I haven't seen the movie, but when I saw the trailers, all the makeup and hair work done on our lead ladies was impressive. I imagine that was a lot of hard work that had to be done everyday on set in order to make the movie work. And I think that the Academy is going to award it for that because otherwise I don't see what else takes this one home. Granted, this is the category that won "Suicide Squad" an Oscar, so you never know. Maybe they'll do something crazy and give this to "Maleficent." Or maybe "1917" takes this, too, in it's sweep of Oscar night. And if you're curious, this is the first year that they went five nominees in this category. I'm not sure why they didn't do that before. 

Film Editing:

Nominations:

- "Ford v Ferrari" - Michael McCusker & Andrew Buckland
- "The Irishman" - Thelma Schoonmaker
- "Jojo Rabbit" - Tom Eagles
- "Joker" - Jeff Groth
- "Parasite" - Yang Jinmo

Will Win:

- "Ford v Ferrari" - Michael McCusker & Andrew Buckland

Should Win:

- "Ford v Ferrari" - Michael McCusker & Andrew Buckland

Why in the name of all things good is "1917" not in this category? Granted, I don't think the filmmakers are going to be feeling left out as I feel it's going to win a lot. But the editing in this movie was pure wizardry. The whole concept of giving the illusion of this being done in one shot is what made the movie. "Birdman" also missed out on a nomination here, too, so maybe the editing branch of the Oscars don't like this technique or think it's not worth editing. That's an absolute shame. But with "1917" out of the way, I have to give this one to "Ford v. Ferrari." The editing work in the race sequences was breathtaking. And I think that's the way the Academy goes, too. I have no idea what else they would give it to. Now sometimes this category reflects on best picture, so if "Parasite" is in for a big night, it could steal this award.     

Costume Design:

Nominations:

- "The Irishman" - Sandy Powell & Christopher Peterson
- "Jojo Rabbit" - Mayes C. Rubeo
- "Joker" - Mark Bridges
- "Little Women" - Jacqueline Duran
- "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood" - Robert Richardson

Will Win:

- "Little Women" - Jacqueline Duran


Should Win:

- "Little Women" - Jacqueline Duran

Can this please be the category where we all agree to give "Little Women" an Oscar? Maybe I'm a sucker for period pieces, but there's a lot of work done in dressing these ladies up. Although as I think about it, "Jojo Rabbit" and "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood" also had to have good costume work to give the feel of their specific time periods, but I feel more work was probably done each day for "Little Women." And honest question. Why is "Joker" nominated here? There was ONE good costume made. The rest were normal people. Why not take out "Joker" and put in "Rocketman" instead? Dressing up Taron Egerton as Elton John in each sequence was probably the most impressive costume work of the year. "Joker" had 11 nominations total. No one working on that movie would lose any sleep if they had one less.  

Cinematography:

Nominations:

- "The Irishman" - Rodrigo Prieto
- "Joker" - Lawrence Sher
- "The Lighthouse" - Jarin Blaschke
- "1917" - Roger Deakins
- "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood" - Robert Richardson

Will Win:

- "1917" - Roger Deakins

Should Win:

- "1917" - Roger Deakins

Need I even elaborate here? If we're not giving "1917" an editing nomination, at least we're making up for it and giving it cinematography. Roger Deakins gets his second Oscar and we go home happy. If I had to pick a second favorite here, "The Lighthouse" is it.  

Production Design:

Nominations:

- "The Irishman" - Bob Shaw & Regina Graves
- "Jojo Rabbit" - Ra Vincent & Nora Sopková
- "1917" - Dennis Gassner & Lee Sandales
- "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood" - Barbara Ling & Nancy Haigh
- "Parasite" - Lee Ha Jun & Cho Won Woo

Will Win:

- "1917" - Dennis Gassner & Lee Sandales

Should Win:

- "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood" - Barbara Ling & Nancy Haigh

Again, I think "1917" is going to walk away with most of the technical categories. If it doesn't, we might have an upset on our hands when it comes to best picture. This one is certainly deserved. Recreating World War I was an impressive feat. I actually had to sit and ponder for a second for my personal pick because recreating World War I and 1960s Hollywood were both quite impressive. But in this case I'm leaning more towards 1960s Hollywood and giving Tarantino's team my personal vote. With the other three, I'm not sure the sets in the movie really stood out that much in comparison to the aforementioned two.

Animated Feature Film:

Nominations:

- "How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World" - DreamWorks Animation
- "I Lost My Body" - Xilam Animation
- "Klaus" - Sergio Pablos Animation Studio
- "Missing Link" - LAIKA
- "Toy Story 4" - Pixar Animation Studios

Will Win:

- "Toy Story 4" - Pixar Animation Studios

Should Win:

- "Toy Story 4" - Pixar Animation Studios

I am not confident in predicting this category. All the precursors have been all over the map. And even though Disney and Pixar often do quite well here, the one kryptonite for both studios on Oscar night is the sequels. Even if the sequels are well liked, the Academy often doesn't reward them. And I think it would be great if "Klaus" or "Missing Link" walked away with an Oscar in an upset. And I think it's highly likely that it happens. But the fact that "Frozen 2" completely missed out on a nomination I think gave this one to "Toy Story 4" because all the big Disney voters in the Academy no longer had to be split in their vote. They can all team together to give "Toy Story 4" the Oscar. As far as my personal choice, "Toy Story 4" was my favorite animated movie of the year and was the top honorable mention when it came to my end of year list. I was the biggest and most stubborn doubter leading up to its release. But it turned out to be the Toy Story finale that I didn't know I needed.   

Adapted Screenplay:

Nominations:

- "The Irishman" - Steven Zaillian
- "Jojo Rabbit" - Taika Waititi
- "Joker" - Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
- "Little Women" - Greta Gerwig
- "The Two Popes" - Anthony McCarten

Will Win:

- "Jojo Rabbit" - Taika Waititi

Should Win:

- "Jojo Rabbit" - Taika Waititi

I sometimes get confused with this category. Is it best adaptation of the source material or is it the best screenplay that just happened to be adapted? I always lean towards the latter. In which case, it's not about the movie itself. It's about the movie that had the best screenplay. And even though I put th lieks of "Joker" and "Little Women" higher on my end of year list, the idea behind "Jojo Rabbit" was absolutely genius. Who would've thunk that doing a comedy that makes light of Hitler and Nazi Germany would work so well? But lest you think that's all there is to it, the journey that Jojo goes through in thinking that Nazis are the greatest ever to learning the truth about them is quite brilliant. And the movie's commitment to following his point of view is magical. Thus of course I have to pick it as the best screenplay in this category. And it's been winning all the major precursors, so I feel quite confident in my selection. If there's a spoiler here it's Greta Gerwig with "Little Women." 

Original Screenplay:

Nominations:

- "Knives Out" - Rian Johnson
- "Marriage Story" - Noah Baumbach
- "1917" - Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
- "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood" - Quentin Tarantino
- "Parasite" - Bong Joon Ho & Han Jin Won

Will Win:

- "Parasite" - Bong Joon Ho & Han Jin Won

Should Win:

- "Parasite" - Bong Joon Ho & Han Jin Won

Another solid list of screenplays here. I like all of these. The screenplays in each of these movies go a long way in making the final product work. But in dissecting this category, "Parasite" was just off the walls bonkers. The concept of doing a socially relevant heist film was great. But the directions the movie goes in the final half had me absolutely stunned. So I think it's by far the best screenplay and I think this is where the Academy gives Bong Joon Ho his Oscar. If there's a spoiler here, I think it would go to Tarantino. Although if Rian Johnson took it for "Knives Out," I would love that.  

Actress in a Supporting Role:

Nominations:

- Kathy Bates - "Richard Jewell"
- Laura Dern - "Marriage Story"
- Scarlett Johansson - "Jojo Rabbit"
- Florence Pugh - "Little Women"
- Margot Robbie - "Bombshell"

Will Win:

- Laura Dern - "Marriage Story"

Should Win:

- Scarlett Johansson - "Jojo Rabbit"

The acting categories I think are going to be pretty straight forward here. Laura Dern has been winning everything up to this point and I don't think there's much of a chance that there's an upset. But the fun part of this conversation is my personal selection because there's four excellent performances here. And I'm sure there's also a fifth with Margot Robbie. She's always great. But I haven't seen "Bombshell." I'm really happy that Kathy Bates got in because "Richard Jewell" was great and the best actor category was too crowded to put in Paul Walter Hauser. Florence Pugh also had a great year with three solid performances via "Fighting with My Family," "Midsommar" and "Little Women." In the latter, she was a great highlight and I wasn't sure if she was getting in, so I'm happy that she did. But my favorite performance here comes down to the Laura Dern and Scar-Jo. And although Laura Dern was fantastic in "Marriage Story," and I'm glad we'll be honoring the movie is some way, she was such an awful character in terms of how despicable she was that I think I learn more towards Scar-Jo giving a performance that left more of an impact for me. It's a quiet and a subtle performance, but it's honestly one of her best. And even when she's not in the movie, she's making a huge impact. 

Actor in a Supporting Role:

Nominations:

- Tom Hanks - "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood"
- Anthony Hopkins - "The Two Popes"
- Al Pacino - "The Irishman"
- Joe Pesci - "The Irishman"
- Brad Pitt - "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood"

Will Win:

- Brad Pitt - "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood"


Should Win:

- Al Pacino - "The Irishman"

This category is tough to pick a favorite because I'm honestly not the biggest fan of these performances. I don't think there's a performance that screams Oscar win, especially since there were a lot of other performances that would've been great, like Sam Rockwell for "Richard Jewell." Brad Pitt is, of course, winning this Oscar. And I'm happy about that. He's one of today's legendary actors and this will be his first Oscar win for acting. But it's between him and Al Pacino for my favorites in the category. Honestly, both of them are essentially playing themselves in their respectively films. But I think there's a slight bit more energy and passion from Al Pacino, which is why he's my choice.

Actress in a Leading Role:

Nominations:

- Cynthia Erivo - "Harriet"
- Scarlett Johansson - "Marriage Story"
- Saoirse Ronan - "Little Women"
- Charlize Theron - "Bombshell"
- Renée Zellweger - "Judy"

Will Win:

- Renée Zellweger - "Judy"

Should Win:

- Saoirse Ronan - "Little Women"

This is another category wherein the early Oscars ceremony killed me. I know that Renée Zellweger is winning. She's been sweeping the board here. But I have not seen three of these movies, that being "Judy," "Harriet" and "Bombshell." I was going to at least watch "Judy" and "Harriet" this week. But again, I ran out of time. So I'm picking between Scar-Jo and Saoirse. Although honestly, knowing my personal history, I tend to lean more towards acting performances wherein a historical figure is perfectly portrayed. So had I been diligent, I think I may have gone with Renée Zellweger. But between the two I have seen, I lean ever so slightly towards Saoirse. She's honestly one of my favorite actresses today and she gives a passionate, powerful and relevant performance in "Little Women." So did Scar-Jo in "Marriage Story." But in that movie, I think I'd say Adam Driver is the one that made the biggest impact on me. And since Scar-Jo is a double nominee this year, I gave her the Oscar for "Jojo," so it's love across the board here. Although the bigger story here is why the frack did Lupita Nyongo not get in for "Us"? That was easily the best performance by an actress this year.  

Actor in a Leading Role:

Nominations:

- Antonio Banderas - "Pain and Glory"
- Leonardo DiCaprio - "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood"
- Adam Driver - "Marriage Story"
- Joaquin Phoenix - "Joker"
- Jonathan Pryce - "The Two Popes"

Will Win:

- Joaquin Phoenix - "Joker"

Should Win:

- Joaquin Phoenix - "Joker"

If we didn't live in a world where Joaquin Phoenix's performance as Joker wasn't a part of this category, this would be a tough one to pick. There's a huge part of me that wants Adam Driver to win an Oscar. And Leo was also great, as always. Antonio Banderas I'm sure was great, too, but "Pain and Glory" didn't expand fast enough for me to see it. I do like the sentiment of him finally getting an Oscar. He's done so many great things that I was surprised to learn that this was his very first. So I can accept that. Jonathan Pryce did fine in "The Two Popes," but with so many great options in this category, he might've been 20th on my personal list. I wanted Adam Sandler to get in for "Uncut Gems" and/or Taron Egerton for "Rocketman." But all of that is moot both in terms of predictions and in personal picks. Joaquin Phoenix gave a legendary performance in "Joker" and I'm glad that he's been unanimously selected for this category.  

Directing:

Nominations:

- Martin Scorsese - "The Irishman"
- Todd Phillips - "Joker"
- Sam Mendes - "1917"
- Quentin Terantino - "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood"
- Bong Joon Ho - "Parasite"

Will Win:

- Sam Mendes - "1917"

Should Win:

- Bong Joon Ho - "Parasite"

I often have a tough time judging the directing of a movie because most of that work is behind the scenes stuff that you aren't always privy to as an audience. But if I do my best anyways, I think "Parasite" had a lot more moving pieces that required the director's hands on work to make it all come together. With Martin Scorsese, Todd Phillips and Quentin Tarantino, I feel we had actors doing a big portion of the heavy lifting to make those movies work. And with "1917," it was a lot of the technical marvels that made it special. Which is why I lean towards Bong Joon Ho as my personal choice. But I think all five did great work in their movies, so I won't be upset at whoever wins. But based on the buzz I'm hearing, this seems like it's coming down to Sam Mendes and Bong Joon Ho, with Mendes as the front runner. But I think the Academy is going to give Bong Joon Ho the Oscar for best original screenplay, which is why I'm saying Sam Mendes gets best director. A split could happen, though.

Best Picture:

Nominations:

- "Ford v Ferrari" - 20th Century Fox
- "The Irishman" - Netflix
- "Jojo Rabbit" - Fox Searchlight Pictures
- "Joker" - Warner Bros.
- "Little Women" - Columbia Pictures
- "Marriage Story" - Netflix
- "1917" - Universal Pictures
- "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood" - Columbia Pictures
- "Parasite" - NEON

Will Win:

- "1917" - Universal Pictures

Should Win:

- "Joker" - Warner Bros.

In terms of all of these best picture nominees, I honestly think this is one of the best years for this category in recent memory. There's nine nominees and seven of them made my top 10 list of the year. In all of the years that I've done top 10 lists, which dates back to 2011, I've never been so in sync with the Academy. And I'm not sure if this will ever be repeated. So really, I'm happy with any of these movies winning best picture. As far as my prediction goes, I just think "1917" has all of the momentum right now and it's been winning most of the important precursors. When it comes to the best picture category at the Oscars, the voting is done my preferential ballot, which means it's often less about the movie that people love the most, but rather the one that they hate the least. And I think that also helps "1917" because it seems like the safest choice. With every one of the others, I could come up with a reason as to why people wouldn't like that. That's harder to do with "1917." At this point, I think "Parasite" is the spoiler with an off chance that "Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood" gets the win. The other six I think are out of the race. Given that I'm picking "1917," don't be surprised if "Parasite" pulls it off because I've actually been wrong on my best picture prediction for several years straight. As far as my personal choice, "Joker" was my favorite movie of the year. So do I really need to do any elaborating there? I think that pick is pretty straightforward.   

No comments:

Post a Comment