The 93rd Academy Awards: Predictions

It's time again for my Oscar predictions! And this has been the most unique Oscar season to say the least. And the longest as they pushed the ceremony to late April due to COVID, extending the release date eligibility through February. That means some of these nominees were what I considered 2020 films and made or were eligible for my 2020 year end list while others will be eligible for my 2021 year end list. While the Oscars extended their eligibility, I didn't. Anyways, I haven't been as active on this blog for various reasons, and you can ask me about that later. But there's a few posts that I deem necessary to post on here instead of my personal social media pages. And this is one of them, if for nothing else than to have it as a reference that I can go back to. But here are my yearly predictions for the Oscars, along with my personal picks if I had a vote. And whatever commentary I decide to add with each. I hope you enjoy! 

Documentary (Short Subject):

Nominations:

- "Colette" - Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard
- "A Concerto is a Conversation" - Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
- "Do Not Split" - Andres Hammer and Charlotte Cook
- "Hunger Ward" - Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
- "A Love Song for Latasha" - Sophia Nahli and Janice Duncan

Will Win:

- "A Love Song for Latasha" - Sophia Nahli and Janice Duncan

Should Win:

- "Colette" - Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard

I always advocate for people to watch these shorts. They never get much attention, but a lot of them are really good. So search them out! All of these documentary shorts are available to watch. My personal favorite is "Colette." It's about an old lady who was a French Resistance fighter who decides to go back to Germany for the first time in 74 years with a young history student. I love the bond these two form and the emotion is high because they visit the concentration camp where this lady's brother died. As far as my predicted winner, I'm riding the Netflix ship this year with the shorts. That's "A Love Song for Latasha" here. And it's a nice tribute to a young black girl that got shot and killed in the 90s. There's relevance there and I'm betting on that for the victory. But I have my eye on "Do Not Split" as that's about the Hong Kong protests a couple of years ago. Really anything could win, though. You almost have to pick a name out of a hat for them. 

Short Film (Animated):

Nominations:

- "Burrow" - Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat
- "Genius Loci" - Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
- "If Anything Happens I Love You" - Will McCormack and Michael Govier
- "Opera" - Erick Oh
- "Yes-People" - Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

Will Win:

- "If Anything Happens I Love You" - Will McCormack and Michael Govier

Should Win:

- "If Anything Happens I Love You" - Will McCormack and Michael Govier

Oh man. If you haven't seen "If Anything Happens I Love You," that's a powerful little film that's an absolute tear-jerker. It involves parents having to deal with their daughter becoming a victim of a school shooting, if that gives you a hint. It's on Netflix. Go watch it. Of all the shorts, I feel this one is the most safe to win. But Pixar is always in play. "Burrow" came to Disney+ with "Soul." So I wouldn't be surprised. It's good. But with how great the other choice is, I would be a bit disappointed if it lost to Pixar. 

Short film (Live Action):

Nominations:

- "Feeling Through" - Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski 
- "The Letter Room" - Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
- "The Present" - Farah Nabulsi and Ossama Bawardi
- "Two Distant Strangers" - Tavo Free and Desmond Roe
- "White Eye" - Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman

Will Win:

- "Two Distant Strangers" - Tavo Free and Desmond Roe

Should Win:

- "Feeling Through" - Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski

If you haven't been paying attention, the trial of former officer Derek Chauvin just concluded. During that, another black man was shot and killed by police. And that happening right around the time where Oscar voting was open makes me think they'll feel obligated to vote for "Two Distant Strangers," a short on Netflix about a black man experiencing a Groundhog Day phenomenon where he gets shot over and over by a racist, white officer. Instead of giving my complex feelings on this, which I don't have time for anyways, I'm going to recommend you search on YouTube for "Groundhog Day for a Black Man." Much better. Also, while you're there on YouTube, search for "Feeling Through," my favorite from this category. It's another feel good movie and I'll be super happy if it gets the win. It's about a guy who helps a blind and deaf man catch his bus. And the actor is actually blind and deaf, making it feel more genuine.

International Feature Film:

Nominations:

- "Another Round" - Denmark
- "Better Days" - Hong Kong 
- "Collective" - Romania
- "The Man Who Sold His Skin" - Tunisia 
- "Quo Vadis, Aida?" - Bosnia and Herzegovina 

Will Win:

- "Another Round" - Denmark

Should Win:

- N/A

I haven't seen any of these. But I hear good things about them. Three are on Hulu. I don't have Hulu. But if you do, you can watch them. I can't remember which three. Sorry. But "Another Round" also got a best director nomination, so I feel like that makes it a shew-in for the victory here. "Collective" also is a double nominee as it got in for documentary feature as well. But that's not quite the same thing as getting best director. 

Documentary (Feature):

Nominations:

- "Collective" - Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
- "Crip Camp" - Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
- "The Mole Agent" - Maite Alverdi and Marcela Santibáñez
- "My Octopus Teacher" - Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
- "Time" - Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

Will Win:

- "My Octopus Teacher" - Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster

Should Win:

- "My Octopus Teacher" - Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster

I've not actually seen all these. In fact, I've only seen two, the two Netflix ones - "My Octopus Teacher" and "Crip Camp." So maybe I shouldn't declare a favorite, but I just love "My Octopus Teacher" so much, so I have to give it some love. And it seems to have all the momentum at the moment, winning most of the precursors. So I'll go with it as my prediction. But weird things often happen with this category, so who knows. I hear "Time" could be the spoiler. My personal gut points out that "Collective" is a double nominee, while "Crip Camp" is a popular Netflix documentary that's quite inspirational. So nothing would really surprise me. Accept for maybe "The Mole Agent." That would be a huge shock. 

Music (Original Song):

Nominations:

- "Fight for You" - H.E.R. (From "Judas and the Black Messiah"; Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyrics by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas) 
- "Hear My Voice" - Celeste (From "The Trial of the Chicago 7"; Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyrics by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite)
- "Husavik" - Will Ferrell and My Marianne (From "Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of the Fire Saga"; Music and Lyrics by Sava Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson) 
- "lo sí (Seen)" - Laura Pausini (From "The Life Ahead"; Music by Diane Waren; Lyrics by Diane Waren and Laura Pausini)
- "Speak Now" - Leslie Odom, Jr. (From "One Night in Miami..."; Music and Lyrics by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth) 

Will Win:

- "Speak Now" - Leslie Odom, Jr. (From "One Night in Miami..."; Music and Lyrics by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth)

Should Win:

- "Husavik" - Will Ferrell and My Marianne (From "Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of the Fire Saga"; Music and Lyrics by Sava Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson)

Honestly this is kind of a boring category for me this year. "Speak Now" has the momentum and will probably win. And while the songs are fine, "Husavik" is my easy favorite. Not only is it a much better song than the other nominees, but it's literally the song they perform at the climax of "Eurovision." I have no idea where the other four even play. My guess is end credits. They certainly aren't as important to their movie as "Husavik" if I'm wrong on my guess. But I'll tell you what I think should've been nominated along with "Husavik." "Make It Work" from "Jingle Jangle," "Everybody Cries" from "The Outpost," "Rain Song" from "Minari," and... yes... "Wuhan Flu" from "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm." Three of those were even on the Oscar shortlist for this category, with "Everybody Cries" being the only one that wasn't. So the Oscars messed this one up. 

Music (Original Score):

Nominations:

- "Da 5 Bloods" - Terence Blanchard
- "Mank" - Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
- "Minari" - Emile Mosseri
- "News of the World" - James Newton Howard
- "Soul" - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

Will Win:

- "Soul" - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

Should Win:

- "News of the World" - James Newton Howard

I really enjoy listening to all the scores in the weeks leading up to the Oscars. And that's exactly what I did driving around in my car this month. And all five really have their positives. "Da 5 Bloods" has an appropriate military feel. "Mank" does a great job replicating a classic Hollywood score. "Minari" has a really pretty soundtrack. And I'm always a sucker for a Jazz score like "Soul." But the score for "News of the World" is the one I fell in love with this month. You might call it a typical movie score, but it's very string heavy score that is beyond gorgeous and does a great job of giving you a Western feel, which is what the movie is. And I learned that James Newton Howard has never won this award, despite some iconic scores. So why not give him a win here? 

Visual Effects:

Nominations:

- "Love and Monsters" - Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
- "The Midnight Sky" - Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence and Matt Solomon
- "Mulan" - Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
- "The One and Only Ivan" - Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez 
- "Tenet" - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

Will Win:

- "Tenet" - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

Should Win:

- "Tenet" - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

I find it hilarious that "Love and Monsters" got a nomination here. Only in 2020 would that happen. This is the category reserved for big Blockbusters. And they all jumped ship due to COVID. Except "Tenet." That still came out. So why not? Let's give "Tenet" the Oscar. Whether you loved it or thought it was really confusing, you can't deny that they did some trippy things with those visual effects that's definitely Oscar worthy. "The Midnight Sky" is the potential spoiler. And sure. The visual effects might be the only good part of that movie, but they're still good. I'm willing to separate the movie from the visual effects and say that could be deserving. But I'd still prefer "Tenet" get the win.

Sound:

Nominations:

- "Greyhound" - Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
- "Mank" - Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
- "News of the World" - Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett 
- "Soul" - Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker 
- "Sound of Metal" - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh 

Will Win:

- "Sound of Metal" - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

Should Win:

- "Sound of Metal" - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

Just one sound category this year. No more trying to remember the difference between sound mixing and editing. They're all one category now. And while I'm sure many hours of hard work went into all of these, there's only one nominee that has the word sound in the title. And if you haven't seen "Sound of Metal," it's the sound design that makes that movie so great. They make you feel what it's like to be going deaf, which thus makes you feel for their character. It's one of the best uses of sound design that I can think of. And one of the only ones where the sound made all the difference in making the movie work. So let's not overthink this one, Academy. 

Makeup and Hairstyling:

Nominations:

- "Emma" - Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
- "Hillbilly Elegy" - Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney
- "Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom" - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson 
- "Mank" - Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff 
- "Pinocchio" - Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti 

Will Win:

- "Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom" - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson

Should Win:

- "Pinocchio" - Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

I think "Ma Rainey" is going to take this is. And I don't have a problem with that. But I have this strange feeling that "Pinocchio is going to take it. It's like when "Suicide Squad" won this award. No one saw that coming. But yet the more I think about it, the more I think that it would be a great win for "Pinocchio." And I haven't even seen the movie, but just watch the trailers and look at that brilliant work with the makeup. Maybe there's some CGI work there, I don't know. But I do think a good amount of the work is with makeup. That's what it looks like, anyways. 

Film Editing:

Nominations:

- "The Father" - Yorgos Lampinos 
- "Nomadland" - Chloé Zhao 
- "Promising Young Woman" - Frédéric Thoraval
- "Sound of Metal" - Mikkel E.G. Nielsen 
- "The Trial of the Chicago 7" - Alan Baumgarten

Will Win:

- "The Trial of the Chicago 7" - Alan Baumgarten

Should Win:

- "The Father" - Yorgos Lampinos

I'm not convinced on this one. I really think "Nomadland" could sweep this one up along its way to a best picture win. I have no evidence of that. But I'm not ruling it out. I'm also hearing a lot of people go "Sound of Metal" here, too. And that would be a fine win, although I personally think sound design is the key to that movie, not film editing. But I could see an argument of that being overlapping with film editing. Or Academy voters assuming as much. My pick, though, goes to what the Eddies chose, that's the American Cinema Editors group. They chose "The Trial of the Chicago 7" as their pick. So that's my prediction. As far as my personal choice, I think much of what "The Father" pulled off was due to the editing. They used some nice tricks to confuse the audience along with Anthony Hopkins. They would pan around and suddenly the setting changed on us. Some say production design should get credit for that. I say both, but leaning more towards editing tricks.

Costume Design:

Nominations:

- "Emma" - Alexandra Byrne 
- "Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom" - Ann Roth 
- "Mank" - Trish Summerville 
- "Mulan" - Bina Daigeler
- "Pinocchio" - Massimo Cantini Parrini 

Will Win:

- "Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom" - Ann Roth

Should Win:

- "Emma" - Alexandra Byrne

Another one where I'm pretty sure "Ma Rainey" is taking home another Oscar. And again, no complaints from me. But I'll throw my vote towards "Emma," our big period piece of the year. "Mank" would be a good choice, too, with them replicating classic Hollywood. But I don't know, I just always notice the great use of costume design when watching the period pieces. And "Emma" stood out more to me. But hey, if "Ma Rainey" does win, Ann Roth becomes one of the oldest to win an Academy award. She's 89 years old right now. So that's fun! 

Cinematography:

Nominations:

- "Judas and the Black Messiah" - Sean Bobbitt
- "Mank" - Erik Messerschmidt 
- "News of the World" - Dariusz Wolski
- "Nomadland" - Joshua James Richards 
- "The Trial of the Chicago 7" - Phedon Papamichael 

Will Win:

- "Nomadland" - Joshua James Richards

Should Win:

- "News of the World" - Dariusz Wolski

All of these are beautifully shot films. And no issues on my end with "Nomadland" taking the victory. "Mank" might be the spoiler if the Academy is taken with the classic Hollywood look. That would be a good win, too. Even if I didn't really enjoy "Mank," I did appreciate the craft and this is one of those things. But when it comes to beautiful, sweeping landscapes, "News of the World" is the easy favorite there. That is a beautiful movie. And it certainly helped that I saw that one on a theater, which many many not have done. And I saw "Nomadland" in a theater, too. Both beautifully shot films. But "News of the World" is far superior in that category. 

Production Design:

Nominations:

- "The Father" - Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
- "Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom" - Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara and Diana Stoughton 
- "Mank" - Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jam Pascale
- "News of the World" - Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
- "Tenet" - Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

Will Win:

- "Mank" - Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jam Pascale

Should Win:

- "News of the World" - Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan

Many probably don't care or understand the level of conflict and turmoil I went through trying to decide my favorite in this category. I sat there looking at the choices and thought to myself, wow. Those are five great choices. A lot of great work went into creating the sets of these movies. I took out "Tenet" because in my brain the visual effects were what impressed me the most. And "The Father" felt like editing to me. And "Ma Rainey" is really just like a stage play with only two basic sets. So it came down to creating classic Hollywood vs. creating the Old West. I'm going the Old West. But the Oscars are going classic Hollywood. And as I am thinking about it, this is the third Oscar that I'd be giving "News of the World." I think I like that movie even more than I thought. Because I would be fine with Tom Hanks and Helena Zengal in acting. And even best picture would make me happy, even though it missed my personal top 10.

Animated Feature Film:

Nominations:

- "Onward" - Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae (Pixar Animation Studios) 
- "Over the Moon" - Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou (Pearl Studio)
- "A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon" - Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley (Aardman Animations) 
- "Soul" - Pete Docter (Pixar Animation Studios) 
- "Wolfwalkers" - Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants (Cartoon Saloon and Mélusine Productions)

Will Win:

- "Soul" - Pete Docter (Pixar Animation Studios)

Should Win:

- "Wolfwalkers" - Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants (Cartoon Saloon and Mélusine Productions)

Pixar has a chokehold on this category. Especially when they have an original film up for the award. The only original Pixar films to not win while this category was in existence was "Cars" and "Monsters, Inc." And the latter lost because "Shrek" was the opposition. And I suppose they'll get a third loss this year with two originals in the category. They can't both win. But "Soul" will take it because "Onward" felt like it came out 10 years ago and Academy voters have the memory of a goldfish. "Soul" has been sweeping the season, including winning 7 Annie awards. And it's nominated for three Oscars. So there's no question in my mind. But I will shout for joy if "Wolfwalkers" pulls the upset. That movie is excellent and well worth the Apple TV+ subscription to watch it.  And actually, "Soul" might be my No. 5 here, but that's because this category is stacked. All these are really good! 

Writing (Adapted Screenplay):

Nominations:

- "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" - Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman and Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer and Nina Pedrad
- "The Father" - Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
- "Nomadland" - Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao 
- "One Night in Miami..." - Screenplay by Kemp Powers
- "The White Tiger" - Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

Will Win:

- "The Father" - Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

Should Win:

- "The Father" - Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

I just want to take a moment and chuckle at how many credited writers there are for "Borat." I also want to say that I think it's a bit weird that it is considered an adapted screenplay. Sometimes the Oscars are weird. That aside, the favorite to win this category is "Nomadland," so I'm going off on a limb a bit, but it did win the BAFTA for this category. So even if "Nomadland" is the favorite, I don't think it's a runaway favorite. I think "The Father" has a lot of support overall and I'm guessing they're going to want to give it something. And it's definitely the most deserving, in my opinion. There's a lot of things that come together to make "The Father" work so effectively and a very carefully crafted screenplay is certainly of those things. 

Writing (Original Screenplay):

Nominations:

- "Judas and the Black Messiah" - Screenplay by Will Bernson and Shaka King; Story by Will Bernson, Shaka King and Keith Lucas
- "Minari" - Written by Lee Isaac Chung
- "Promising Young Woman" - Written by Emerald Fennell 
- "Sound of Metal" - Screenplay by Darius Marder and Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder and Derek Cianfrance
- "The Trial of the Chicago 7" - Written by Aaron Sorkin

Will Win:

- "Promising Young Woman" - Written by Emerald Fennell

Should Win:

- "Promising Young Woman" - Written by Emerald Fennell

"Promising Young Woman" is my favorite movie of all the nominated candidates. Yet me predicting it to win here is more than just hopeful thinking. It does have a lot of support and, like "The Father," I do think they're going to want to reward it somehow. Original Screenplay is the perfect category to do so. It's a phenomenal and rather unique screenplay and has been winning most of these awards. I think this is a much more safe pick than my pick for Adapted Screenplay. If there's an upset, I think it'll be "The Trial of the Chicago 7." And while that would be disappointing to me, Aaron Sorkin is a master with his writing, so that would be fine with me, I suppose. A bit boring, though. "The Trial of the Chicago 7" is tailor-made for awards season, so I'd rather have something more fun and unique win this one. 

Actress is a Supporting Role:

Nominations:

- Maria Bakalova - "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm"
- Glenn Close - "Hillbilly Elegy"
- Olivia Colman - "The Father"
- Amanda Seyfried - "Mank"
- Yuh-Jung Youn - "Minari"

Will Win:

- Yuh-Jung Youn - "Minari"

Should Win:

- Olivia Colman - "The Father"

At one point this seemed to be up in the air. Both Amanda Seyfried and Maria Bakalova have been talked as potential winners. And I would be in favor of either of them. But in the last month or so, Yuh-Jung Youn has seemingly steamrolled to the lead and now seems to be one of the more safe picks here. And it'll be a fantastic win as she's the grandmother in "Minari" and arguably the best part of the movie. I was going to make her my choice as well, but I just had to go with Olivia Colman. I think "The Father" is a very special movie and, while Anthony Hopkins is front and center to that movie's success as he's the father struggling with dementia, the movie also doesn't work without the daughter struggling to figure out what to do and how to take care of her father. I think she gives a powerful performance that isn't getting talked about as much. And yes, while one of these days we'll have to give Glenn Close her win, it would feel wrong if "Hillbilly Elegy" was the one she got it for. I like that movie more than most, but that win would be a lifetime achievement award. In this case, she's the fifth best performance. 

Actor in a Supporting Role:

Nominations:

- Sacha Baron Cohen - "The Trial of the Chicago 7"
- Daniel Kaluuya - "Judas and the Black Messiah"
- Leslie Odom, Jr. - "One Night in Miami..."
- Paul Raci - "Sound of Metal"
- Lakeith Stanfield - "Judas and the Black Messiah"

Will Win:

- Daniel Kaluuya - "Judas and the Black Messiah"

Should Win:

- Paul Raci - "Sound of Metal"

Another easy one to call. In fact this might be the easiest of all the acting categories. Daniel Kaluuya has one everything leading up to this and for good reason. He gives an excellent performance as Fred Hampton. If there does happen to be a shocking upset, it'll be because of Lakeith Stanfield getting thrown in here for some reason. Don't get me wrong, I love Lakeith Stanfield in the movie. Maybe more than Daniel Kaluuya. But he's definitely the lead in the movie. Warner Bros. even campaigned for him in lead, which makes this even more strange. And I'm wondering if he might steal a few votes away from Kaluuya and thus cause Paul Raci to win. If that does happen, I will be so happy. Paul Raci's performance is so great. He makes you think that he's part of the deaf community and is also such a warm and welcoming presence. But all that said, I still think Kaluuya is going to win. 

Actress in a Leading Role:

Nominations:

- Viola Davis - "Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom"
- Andra Day - "The United States vs. Billie Holiday"
- Vanessa Kirby - "Pieces of a Woman"
- Frances McDormand - "Nomadland"
- Carey Mulligan - "Promising Young Woman"

Will Win:

- Viola Davis - "Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom"

Should Win:

- Carey Mulligan - "Promising Young Woman"

Oh goodness. This is the category that's giving me a headache. Me and everyone else who enjoys predicting the Oscars. Usually there's a front-runner that emerges in this categories, but this season has been bonkers as each of the nominees has won something. Except Vanessa Kirby. Which is unfortunate, actually. She might be my second choice behind Carey Mulligan, my personal choice by a long shot. But if Vanessa won the Oscar here, that would seem like a hilariously fitting way to finish this off. I'm not going to predict that, though. If there's anyone who does seem to have a slight lead, it's Viola, but statistics go against that. If she wins, it'll be the exact same winners as the SAG winners. That's only happened seven times in the last 27 years. And if she wins, that's the first time in 23 years that actress and actor came from the same movie. To do that without a best picture nomination is crazy. My gut says Andra Day even though there's not much to back that up. My gut also says Carey isn't going to win, nor do I want to curse her predicting her to do so. And Frances McDormand winning would give her a third Oscar win for acting. That's hard to do and she just barely got her second. So I don't know. I guess I'm going with Viola because everyone loves her, but that's my least confident prediction. 

Actor in a Leading Role:

Nominations:

- Riz Ahmed - "Sound of Metal"
- Chadwick Boseman - "Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom"
- Anthony Hopkins - "The Father"
- Gary Oldman - "Mank" 
- Steven Yeun - "Minari"

Will Win:

- Chadwick Boseman - "Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom"

Should Win:

- Anthony Hopkins - "The Father"

On the flip side, compared to the actress race, Chadwick Boseman winning seems to be more of a sure thing. Anthony Hopkins did win BAFTA and I think he has a lot more support than some people think. Not that my vote matters, but he also has my support. That's a legendary performance from a legendary actor and is quite easily the best performance of the five. The tricky conversation to have here is that Chadwick winning is more of a way to honor his legacy rather than to reward him for giving the year's best performance by a lead actor. And I have nothing against that. But he didn't give a better performance than Anthony Hopkins and I don't think he'd be winning if he hadn't passed away. In terms of the individual performances, Riz Ahmed might be my No. 2, with Chadwick No. 3. And Steven Yeun being a very close No. 4. Don't hate me for saying that, though. I'm just trying to objectively make a pick. 

Directing:

Nominations:

- Thomas Vinterberg - "Another Round"
- David Fincher - "Mank"
- Lee Isaac Chung - "Minari"
- Chloé Zhao - "Nomadland" 
- Emerald Fennell - "Promising Young Woman"

Will Win:

- Chloé Zhao - "Nomadland"

Should Win:

- Chloé Zhao - "Nomadland"

Another easy pick. Chloé Zhao has been sweeping the director awards this season and in this instance I think that's deserving. I'll fully admit that I'm not the best at judging what makes great directing. I think there's a lot of behind the scenes work that we don't see. But in my mind, what puts it over the top for me, despite "Nomadland" not being my favorite movie, is that most of the actors in the movie are actual Nomads playing versions of themselves on screen. I think it takes great directing to guide a bunch of non-actors to give excellent performances. Maybe that's not what everyone else is thinking, but that's my train of thought. And as much as I love Emerald Fennell and "Promising Young Woman," I think Emerald's screenplay combined with Carey's performance are what does the most heavy lifting. So I'd happily give Chloé the Oscar. 

Best Picture:

Nominations:

- "The Father" - David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers (Sony Pictures Classics) 
- "Judas and the Black Messiah" - Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers (Warner Bros. Pictures) 

- "Mank" - Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers (Netflix) 
- "Minari" - Christina Oh, Producer (A24)
- "Nomadland" - Frances McDormand, Peter Sears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers (Searchlight Pictures)

- "Promising Young Woman" - Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers (Focus Features) 

- "Sound of Metal" - Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers (Amazon Studios) 

- "The Trial of the Chicago 7" - Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers (Netflix) 

Will Win:

- "Nomadland" - Frances McDormand, Peter Sears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers (Searchlight Pictures)

Should Win:

- "Promising Young Woman" - Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers (Focus Features)

And the biggest award of the night is one that seems fairly straightforward compared to past years. "Nomadland" is the favorite and it's been winning most things, so I'm not going to overthink this one. I'll go with the favorite and pick "Nomadland" to win. But the thing that gives me pause is the preferential voting they do for best picture at the Oscars. "Nomadland" might have the most first place votes, but that's not what gets you a best picture win. You have to have a strong number of second and third place votes. It's not the movie that the most people love that wins, it's the movie that has the least amount of hate. Because of that, I could see "The Trial of the Chicago 7" or "Minari" pulling the upset. "Promising Young Woman," my personal favorite, isn't winning. It's too divisive. Plus, my personal choice is always cursed. It never wins. And actually, I'm on a losing streak with picking best picture. So I may have just cursed "Nomadland." If so... good. It's my seventh favorite here, ahead of only "Mank." It's not bad. It's just overrated, in my opinion. There's a lot to love and appreciate, but it just doesn't feel best picture worthy.