Month No. 2 back doing my monthly movie preview and I have to say that it’s been really fun to have a summer movie season to get invested in once again. But if July 2021 has taught us anything it’s the reminder that things are far from normal at the box office. “Black Widow” opened with an $80 million debut a few weeks after “F9” opened to $70 million, showing positive signs that big blockbusters can perform well. But we still have all sorts of hybrid releases as studios continue to experiment with how to make money. That’s led to Scarlett Johansson suing Disney for breach of contract. Then it seems everything is super frontloaded, while some movies, like “Snake Eyes,” wound up completely dead on arrival.
So yeah, that leaves us still very much in uncharted territory here. Not to mention July had huge rises in COVID cases pretty much everywhere, sparked heavily by the Delta variant of the virus, meaning it’s quite possible that the whole industry could once again come crashing down. Or at the least cause some to shy away from venturing out to theaters. What does that mean for August, traditionally the quietest summer month, anyways? We’ll attempt to wade through those waters here as we preview what’s currently on the theatrical schedule. Data for release dates comes via the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com.
August 6 – 8
The first weekend of August begins with the highest profile release of the month, and the only wide release of the weekend, James Gunn’s The Suicide Squad, not to be confused with David Ayer’s 2016 film “Suicide Squad.” While technically a sequel to that movie, this new one serves as more of a soft-reboot as Warner Bros. and DC attempt to distance themselves from the toxic reaction to that movie, while continuing to move forward with the franchise. Bringing on James Gunn from “Guardians of the Galaxy” fame to direct another movie full of a bunch of random misfits seems like it was the perfect choice and people seem to be reacting very positively to this version of the Squad as it currently sits at a 93 percent on Rotten Tomatoes as of me typing this, the exact opposite of the 26 percent that the original movie got.
Despite the wretchedly awful reviews and fan reaction, “Suicide Squad” managed to open to $133 million and finish with $325 million at the domestic box office, not bad for a movie that most people hated. Nevertheless, the saga between the movie and the DCEU as a whole is quite the storied one that I will not summarize here. Needless to say, even in normal circumstances this sequel wouldn’t have gotten close to that number due to a lot of various factors. Reaction to the DCEU as a whole, a bad taste in people’s mouths from the first one, and the R-rating, which, despite being what some fans want, does cut off a certain percentage of the target audience. I would’ve predicted a $50-80 million opening, but then we have to add in the availability of it being free on HBO Max to subscribers and the rise of the Delta variant, which might cause more people than normal to watch it home. Add all that together and it’s seeming like “Birds of Prey” is a more apt comparison. That opened to $33 million a month before the pandemic shut down the world.
If that is where “The Suicide Squad” lands, regardless of circumstances, it is a tad bit embarrassing if you make a sequel that opens to $100 million LESS than the first movie. Box Office Pro had it projected at $28 million on their Thursday forecast.
August 13 – 15
While “The Suicide Squad” had the first weekend to itself in terms of wide releases, the second and third weekends of August throw a whole bunch into the market. Three this weekend and four next weekend. This weekend starts with Free Guy finally making its way into theaters. This is one of the many films that got delayed due to COVID. Initially scheduled for July 2020, it is finally hitting theaters just over a year later. It’s also a theatrical exclusive, no hybrid release from Disney (via 20th Century Studios). “Free Guy” stars Ryan Reynolds in a video game world. His character initially is a non-player character as a bank teller, but manages to become self-aware of his surroundings and makes himself the hero in this action comedy. This feels like the perfect vehicle for Reynolds following his Deadpool fame. He even stepped into the character of Deadpool to help advertise it, doing a meta “Deadpool reacts to the ‘Free Guy’ trailer” video on his YouTube channel. Assuming “The Suicide Squad” really does open to just $25-30 million, that should open the door for “Free Guy” to take this weekend.
The challenger for “Free Guy” will be the horror sequel Don’t Breathe 2. This is another belated sequel that actually came out in the same month as “Suicide Squad” in August 2016. So we have a bit of a déjà vu here. “Don’t Breathe” was a well-reviews sleeper hit that opened to $26.4 million that month, holding very well to end up with $89.2 million domestically and $158 million worldwide, all of this on a budget of $9.9 million, making it curious that they waited five years to make a sequel. The premise surrounded a bunch of kids that decided to rob an old, blind man. Turns out that blind man was far more capable than they ever imagined and they ended up trapped in his house, fearing for their lives and trying to escape. In this sequel, the blind man is back and it’s a group of adult males invading his house. Comparing this to other horror movies this summer, both “Spiral” and “Escape Room 2” opened just under $9 million, while “Old” opened to $16.8 million and “The Conjuring 3” opened to $24.1 million. So there’s a decent range of outcomes that “Don’t Breathe 2” could hit.
Rounding out the trilogy of new wide releases this weekend is the musical biopic Respect, which tells the story of Aretha Franklin. This was slated for awards seasons contention last year before being yet another movie delayed by COVID. Instead of settling for January or February of this year, they went for an August release, hoping to be remembered for this season’s awards. Jennifer Hudson plays the title role of Aretha Franklin and it’s her performance that has had the most anticipation. The height of Aretha’s career was in the 60s and 70s, with the movie’s title track “Respect” being released in 1967. So this assumedly is targeting an older audience who doesn’t necessarily rush out to see movies on opening weekend. So rather than going for a huge opening weekend, box office legs will determine this movie’s success. That said, Aretha’s career also spanned well into the 80s and 90s. She even released albums as late as 2014 prior to her passing in 2018. So she’s definitely had multi-generational success that could make the target demographics slightly different than your typical musical biopic.
August 20 – 22
In normal times, late August is often seen as more of a dumping ground for films not expected to do super well. And while we’re obviously far from normal circumstances, this third weekend seems to reflect these old traditions. While I have no idea which of these four movies will come out on top, or if any of them will top last week’s winner, we’ll start with the biggest studio, Warner Bros. releasing Reminiscence. This is a sci-fi movie starring Hugh Jackman as a rugged veteran who helps people the chance to relive any memory they want. Enter Rebecca Ferguson’s character, a woman named Mae. Hugh Jackman develops a romance with her and then she vanishes. So he dives into the past to find clues about who she is and where she may have gone. This is the feature directorial debut of Lisa Joy, co-creator of HBO’s “Westworld.” That combined with the star power could make this an intriguing option. It’s also a HBO Max hybrid release, which means people might choose to watch it there.
I have huge doubts that PAW Patrol: The Movie will make a big impact at the box office, but that’s our second movie of the weekend. “PAW Patrol” the series has been around since 2013, premiering on Nickelodeon in the United States. They’ve had eight seasons and 196 episodes and have recently been renewed for a ninth season. So clearly this is quite popular with a certain younger demographic. And like with many animated movies like this, they managed to wrangle together a very random selection of voice work, which includes Ian Armitage, Marshai Martin, Yara Shahidi, Kim Kardashian West, Randall Park, Dax Shepard, Tyler Perry, Jimmy Kimmel, and Will Brisbin. I don’t know if the kids care about any of those names, but they’re in their anyways. Box office wise, this feels like it’ll open anywhere in the range of “Spirit Untamed” ($6.1 million) to “Tom & Jerry” ($14.1 million). If it hits that higher range and everything else underperforms, it theoretically could win the weekend.
The third movie could challenge for weekend title is the Lionsgate movie The Protégé. This is an action movie aiming to be the next “John Wick” and has Maggie Q starring as a woman named Anna, who is described by Lionsgate as the world’s most skilled contract killer. She’s out for revenge as her father figure, the man who rescued her as a child and trained her, gets killed. In the midst of this, she gets tangled up with Michael Keaton’s character, another killer, and the two of them develop a sort of romance as they’re out for revenge. Samuel L. Jackson also stars in the movie, so the star power is there. And while every new action movie seems to be attempting to be the new “John Wick,” and many of them have failed, this one uses “John Wick” in the advertising, showcasing that it is from the studio that brought you “John Wick.” It’s also from the director of “Casino Royale,” so the pieces are in play here. But if it winds up as another generic action movie, it could easily fall by the wayside.
The final movie of the weekend is a horror movie Searchlight Pictures called The Night House. While the other three movies from this weekend could legitimately challenge to be the highest of the new releases, I have a feeling that this is more of a moderate release, not aimed at a massive weekend. Searchlight Pictures, now a branch of Disney, doesn’t often push for huge weekends, unless they’re going for awards. Even those are more of a slow rollout. But “The Night House” was actually a movie from Sundance in 2020 that got decent praise. It stars Rebecca Hall living alone in a creepy house by the lakeside after her husband passed away. She starts digging into his past and begins learning secrets that maybe she didn’t really want to know. I’m thinking this movie grabs a few million in its opening weekend, maybe from a thousand or two theaters. For some reason, I’m thinking of “The Empty Man,” another Disney horror from one of their Fox studios, 20th Century Studios in that instance. Mid-pandemic, in October 2020, that movie opened to $1.3 million from 2,027 theaters.
August 27 – 29
The final weekend of August has only one wide release. And while normally the final weekend of August is one that studios completely avoid, this weekend is where Candyman wound up. This is yet another one of those releases that bounced around the schedule due to COVID. It was initially scheduled to release in June 2021, but now it’s helping to usher in the 2021 Halloween season. While it serves as a reboot of the “Candyman” franchise, it’s doing the “Halloween” thing, where the recent 2018 “Halloween” was a direct sequel to the original “Halloween,” yet chooses to take on the exact same movie title. Yes, “Candyman” 2021 is a direct sequel to “Candyman” 1992 and is the fourth overall “Candyman” movie to be released. With these movies, you say “Candyman” in the mirror five times and you’ve summoned Candyman to come haunt you. Outside being part of a familiar franchise, the other benefit this sequel has being written, although not directed, by Jordan Peele, who has become a huge horror draw with his movies “Get Out” and “Us.” In regards to its box office potential, as I described above with “Don’t Breathe 2,” there’s been a wide range of outcomes with horror movies released this summer, ranging from $9 million to $24 million. Given the Jordan Peele connection along with the popularity of the original horror movie and the fact that the most recent trailer released a month ago has 26 million views, three times as much as the recent “Halloween Kills” trailer released a day later, I’d expect this to hit on the higher end of that spectrum, perhaps topping $20 million, or at least getting in the high teens like “Old.” That should give us a welcome late August boost instead of the traditional Labor Day lull. That’ll be helped even more given that Marvel has decided to drop “Shang-Chi” on actual Labor Day weekend, which is historically the worst weekend of the year. But we’ll get into that when we discuss the September releases in a month from now.
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