Movie Preview: December 2021

The holiday season is well underway at the box office with November bringing several heavy hitters that are looking to continue to hold well throughout December, such as “Eternals,” “Ghostbusters: Afterlife” and “Encanto,” especially those last two, which just began their runs right before Thanksgiving. “Eternals” rode into theaters with a wave of mixed reviews, the worst in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, but still took the month with $151 million total domestically. In a unique turn of events, November didn’t quite hit the heights of October, but yet normal hasn’t been an often-used word in the last two years. December is definitely going to change that with a little movie called “Spider-Man: No Way Home” that you may have heard of. While we will explore the box office potential of “No Way Home,” there will also be other movies released that we’ll look into.

As always, box office data and release date information are courtesy of the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com. The release dates listed are based on the domestic release dates, so United States and Canada, and are always subject to change. Normally this post is organized by weekend, but December doesn’t really follow typical conventions when it comes to release patterns, so instead we’ll go by the day of release as opposed to the weekend of release.

December 10

20th Century Studios' "West Side Story"

Point in case with December being unconventional in regards to the release schedule, there are no wide releases on December 3, the first weekend of December. So the box office will be dominated by Thanksgiving holdovers. In limited release, the animated documentary “Flee” from Denmark will likely play well in New York and Los Angeles following very strong praise out of Sundance. It has potential to be triple nominated in animated feature, documentary feature, and international feature at the Oscars, which would be a unique feat. Netflix also released their major awards player “The Power of the Dog” in select theaters for an Oscar-qualifying run in conjunction with its release on Netflix. And Focus Features has a movie called “Wolf” about a boy who thinks he’s a wolf. But again, no wide releases on December 3.

Moving forward to December 10, the first major release of the Christmas season is Steven Spielberg’s highly anticipated remake of West Side Story. 2021 was supposed to be the year of the movie musical. And while many have been released, we’ve yet to see one to truly pop. “In the Heights” experienced high praise, but was ignored by audiences with just $29.9 million domestically. “Dear Evan Hansen” was plagued with very divisive reviews and wound up worse, making just $15 million. And “Tick… Tick… BOOM!” has received strong praise, but has yet to crack Netflix’s top 10 and didn’t get a theatrical release. That seemingly leaves the door open for “West Side Story” to actually take the corner on the market and become the musical from 2021 that everyone sees and remembers. But will audiences show up?

The Spielberg name gives it automatic brand name recognition. While there might be a general sense of negativity towards the idea of so many things getting remade, Spielberg wanting to remake “West Side Story” has led it to have more positive buzz as many may give Spielberg the benefit of the doubt, which is a treatment that not every filmmaker gets. The original movie was the 1962 best picture winner. On top of that, it won 10 total Oscars and would quickly go on to being one of the most beloved and iconic movie musicals in existence. So even if this wasn’t a Spielberg movie, the IP of the original would be more than enough to give it recognition over the other movie musicals that may have been overlooked this year. The frosting on the cake may be the early Twitter buzz, which appears to be quite positive following its premier for critics just recently. If this ends up being a huge crowd pleaser, that could lead to a very long, healthy box office run, topped off by a shower of awards recognition.

The elephant in the room is that it’s being released in the shadow of “Spider-Man: No Way Home.” Now December is a month that has proven to be a time where multiple big blockbusters can co-exist, so that may not be an issue. But it’s at least worth bringing up given the insane amount of hype that’s following “Spider-Man.” More on that in a second.

First, we need to quickly also bring the release of National Champions. I actually brought this up last month, but mentioned that it was theoretically being released because at that time it did not have a trailer or a poster, so I wasn’t sure it was a thing that was going to actually exist. Well, shortly after that post, it got a trailer and a poster. And a new release date for December 10 instead of Thanksgiving. A release date that I’m confident it will hit this time, given that the title of the official trailer from STX lists “In theaters December 10th.” This is a fictional movie about a college quarterback, winner of the Heisman and projected first round pick, who decides to boycott the national championship game in protest of college athletes not being recognized as paid employees. Again, fictional story here. But referencing real life issues. Even if it connects with viewers, I can’t imagine it will make more than last month’s “King Richard,” a fellow sports drama with lots of buzz and great reviews that opened to just $5.4 million.  

December 17

Sony Pictures' "Spider-Man: No Way Home"

On to the main event. The reason why many of you may have clicked this link. And who knows, maybe you scrolled right past everything else just to read this. In which case, fine. Spider-Man: No Way Home. A movie that seems guaranteed to be the highest grossing movie of the year, at least domestically. And will easily shatter and decimate any and all COVID records at the box office. In case you haven’t been connected to the internet in the last few months, the buzz and the hype surrounding this movie has been almost unparalleled. To the point where Sony can’t release trailers for any of their other films without fans swarming them with questions of when the next trailer will be released. Andrew Garfield hasn’t been able to promote his movie “Tick… Tick… BOOM!” without every reporter asking him if he’s going to be in this movie, which he currently denies and no one from Sony or Marvel has even promised fans. The trailer broke records for views in its first 24 hours, beating “Avengers: Endgame.” And advanced ticket sales have sold more than any other film released except for “Avengers: Endgame.”

So yes, unquestionably this has attained event-level status on the level of a “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” or the aforementioned “Avengers: Endgame.” How did it accomplish this? Well, by promising a crossover event that has hit all the right notes among Spider-Man fans. While Andrew Garfield and Tobey Maguire haven’t been promised, but are possibly being saved as a surprise, the multiverse has been opened in this movie, what has been promised are the villains from their movies, which include Doc Ock, Green Goblin, Sandman, Lizard, and Electro, as introduced in the most recent trailer. And if they’re all in the movie, then the potential possibilities are endless with a movie that combines all the current live action Spider-Verses. The only issue the movie might have is being able to live up to the insane amount of hype that fans have given it. Regardless of that, the movie is guaranteed to attract a lot of people to see it. How those people end up responding is to be determined.

So how much will this movie make? It’s worth noting that Spider-Man has had a very strong history at the box office. Raimi’s original 2002 film became the first movie to ever open above $100 million with $114.8 million. Seven years later, “Spider-Man 3” became the first to ever open above $150 million, with $151.1 million. A major Spider-Man crossover event has the potential to reach those heights. Adjusted for ticket price inflation, those two openings adjust to $181 million and $201 million, respectively. A range that I think “No Way Home” can reach. The elephant in the room is that COVID still exists. While this is sure to fly past the current COVID record of $90 million set by “Venom: Let There Be Carnage,” how high can a movie really open in the world of COVID? Without COVID, I would comfortably predict $200 million. But that’s not the world we live in. The reality of things still makes predictions volatile. For the sake of comparison, “Homecoming” opened to $117 million, while “Far From Home” opened to $92 million. “No Way Home” should at least top both of those movies.

In news not related to Spider-Man, while no movie is directly competing in terms of a wide release opening on the same day, Guillermo del Torro’s Nightmare Alley will begin its limited release roll-out on the 17th, as will George Clooney’s The Tender Bar. Both movies are hoping for awards consideration, but are currently viewed as more outside contenders. Awards or not, a new movie from those two directors could be sleeper hits at the box office as they eventually expand, especially when it comes to a new del Torro movie.

December 22

Warner Bros.' "The Matrix Resurrections"

While no movie is opening directly on the same day in wide release as “Spider-Man,” three major movies will be entering the market five days later, on Wednesday the 22nd. Leading the charge will be The Matrix Resurrections. Speaking of influential films, “The Matrix” from 1999 is definitely one of them. And speaking of movies that aren’t so influential, the two sequels that came after aren’t exactly as highly regarded. And while they have their supporters, the Wachowski Sisters have experienced many bumps in the road in their efforts to re-capture lightning in a bottle again. Despite that, a return to The Matrix via “Resurrections” is generally something that Matrix fans are excited about, especially after the trailer dropped. Warner Bros. is also hoping to cash in the success of Keanu Reeves after the John Wick franchise launched him to an additional level of stardom. With the history of the franchise, though, positive reviews will be essential here. Even with those, the other obstacle is that this is an HBO Max hybrid release. The final HBO Max hybrid release as Warner Bros. is ditching that strategy in 2022. The highest HBO Max hybrid release is “Dune” with $41 million. With Christmas Eve on Friday, and that being a day that people don’t go to theaters as much, the comparison there is tricky. Like with many Christmas releases, the long run will be the metric to look out for.

Competing directly with “Spider-Man” for Christmas-time theatrical adventures is going to be tough for any of these movies. And while “The Matrix Resurrections” might have the fan base for that not to be a huge problem, our second wide release on this particular day, that of The King’s Man, may not be so lucky. This movie serves as a prequel to the previous two “Kingsman” movies, 2014’s “Kingsman: The Secret Service” and 2017’s “Kingsman: The Golden Circle.” This is essentially an origin story of the Kingsman organization, set in the early 1900s. The challenge that this movie had from day one is that it’s not returning any of the characters from the main franchise film, instead relying on the style of those two movies to sell it. While the Kingsman movies are popular, are the popular enough to support off-shoot films with different characters, relying on the IP alone? With that already as a challenge, this was supposed to come out November 2019, but got pushed back twice… before COVID hit. It has since bounced around like a ping pong ball perhaps more than any film affected by COVID. At this point, do people care? A third Kingsman movie with returning characters may have been a more effective direction than what they’ve chosen with this movie.

While “The Matrix Resurrections” and “The King’s Man” face the challenge of competing for similar audiences as “Spider-Man,” the third movie released on this day is the one in the best position to provide the best counterprogramming and that’s Sing 2. With a whole month between this and “Encanto,” this movie might have the market on the family audiences, thus being perfectly positioned to be the go to movie for parents with kids on Christmas as well as the days and weeks right after. Lest we forget, “Sing” was actually a huge sleeper hit for Illumination in 2016. It was released right before Christmas that year, a month after Disney’s “Moana” released at Thanksgiving. And while “Moana” was a big hit for Disney, “Sing” wound up making more money, at least domestically. And with “Encanto” hitting on the lower end of projections for Disney this year, history could very well repeat itself as all the animals are back and are looking to put on another performance for the kids to enjoy.  

December 25

Lionsgate's "American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story"

Yes, three days after our previous section, rather than the next weekend, we have two more releases. And yes, that means they’ll be opening on a Saturday, which is definitely not normal. Although in the current circumstances, Christmas Eve is typically not the movie-going day for people, while Christmas Day definitely is. So it makes sense. Neither of these two movies are going to break the bank, but they do provide additional options for adult audiences. The first is American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story. This tells the unique story of Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, who did not have success initially in the NFL. He went undrafted in the 1994 NFL Draft and wasn’t given a chance by a team, forcing him to go play in the Arena Football League for a few years before finally making it as a backup quarterback for the St. Louis Rams in 1998. He was forced into the starting lineup in 1999 following an injury to starter Trent Green and the rest is history. He was the MVP that season and led the Rams to a Super Bowl victory over the Titans. This movie is that story, with Zachary Levi playing Kurt Warner.

And the final wide release of the month will be A Journal for Jordan. This is another drama based on a true story, with Michael B. Jordan playing Sergeant Charles Monroe King, who was killed in action in Baghdad. Before that, though, he kept a journal for his infant son, Jordan, sharing his love and advice of how to grow up without a father. The movie is directed by Denzel Washington and if it plays well, it could a sleeper pick for awards potential. Although it didn’t play at any festivals and hasn’t screened yet for critics or voting members, so it might be a bit late in the game for a true awards push. Its bigger play might be as counterprogramming for the big blockbuster affair, an option for adult audiences who are less interested in Spider-Man or The Matrix. Both this and “American Underdog” probably aren’t looking at major opening weekends, but could be sleeper hits over the holiday.

According to my typical structure, New Year’s Eve falls on a Friday and thus I would normally put that weekend into this month. But there are no new wide releases currently scheduled for that weekend. “Licorice Pizza,” which opened in November, is currently scheduled for a wide expansion on Christmas Eve. “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” another potential Oscar hopeful, will start its limited run on Christmas. There are also probably a handful of other Oscar hopefuls that will likely plan on doing the same thing, like “Cyrano,” which was going to open wide on Christmas, but opted for a limited release before expanding in January. We’ll cover more of those when we cross into the new year next month.