Movie Preview: March 2022

Spring movie season is upon us at the box office. After a brutal winter with the Omicron variant of COVID, case counts are down everywhere and it looks like the consequences of that is people being ready and eager to head out to the movies, as was seen by the limited options that February provided being fairly lucrative. Once the Super Bowl was behind us, the market thrived with both “Uncharted” and “Dog” overperforming on their opening weekends and holding well in the empty weekend that followed. And, of course, “Spider-Man: No Way Home” continued to not care about COVID as it became the third highest grossing movie ever at the domestic box office and sixth highest worldwide (without a China release), proving that people are willing to come out, regardless, as long as the product is desirable. All of this is seemingly preparing the way for Batman to completely dominate… especially considering that “The Batman” is almost the only movie on the calendar.

As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com. The movies listed are the movies currently scheduled for a wide theatrical release at the domestic box office (the United States and Canada), with a few notable streaming exceptions, and are always subject to change.

March 4 – 6

Warner Bros.' "The Batman"

In case you hadn’t heard, there’s a movie called The Batman that’s getting released this weekend. This was initially supposed to be Ben Affleck's solo Batman movie, following his appearance in “Batman v. Superman” and “Justice League.” At one point Affleck was going to even direct that movie as well. But then Affleck dropped out of both and Matt Reeves of “Cloverfield” and the new “Planet of the Apes” trilogy stepped in the directing chair. A casting search from Reeves led him to Robert Pattinson being the newest to join the ranks of the cape crusaders, following the likes of Adam West, Michael Keaton, Val Kilmer, George Clooney, Christian Bale, and the aforementioned Ben Affleck in the live action realm, with many other via animation and other media. Joining Pattinson in his crusade will be Zoe Kravitz as Selina Kyle, Jeffrey Wright as Commissioner Gordon, and Andy Serkis as Alfred. Standing in direct opposition to him will be Paul Dano as The Riddler and Colin Farrell as Penguin.

Given that this is the only wide release of this weekend and next, allow me to spend a tad bit more time with this one. Pattinson as Batman was met with a good deal of skepticism, as is often typical with Batman casting, but the man also has quite the unique range of fandom at his side. Potterheads will know him as Cedric Diggory. Twilight fans will know him as Edward. Nolan fans will have his back after his turn in “Tenet.” And cinephiles quite love him after starring roles in the likes of “The Rover,” “The Lost City of Z,” “Good Time” and “The Lighthouse.” And now he gets to add DC fans that growing list of fandoms that he’s been a part of him. The only thing he’s seemingly missing is a Marvel and a Star Wars turn. But give him time.

As far as the movie’s box office potential goes, DC has had a bit of a rough go of it lately, even though response to their movies have been trending more positive. But they can always trust on a Batman movie to bring them back. The recent three live-action Batman outings, “The Dark Knight,” “The Dark Knight Rises,” and “Batman v. Superman,” all opened within $10 million of $160 million. That is seemingly the gold standard for success. However, with those being sequels to already established Batman franchises, a glance at two previous Batman origin movies could be helpful. And obviously unadjusted grosses aren’t helpful, but when adjusted for ticket price inflation, 1989’s “Batman” opened to a 2022 equivalent of $93 million, while 2005’s “Batman Begins” adjusts to about $70 million. An opening of at least $100 million seems to be a sure bet, but that $70-90 million would be the absolute floor. Batman’s nemesis, 2019’s “Joker” managed a $96 million opening as another potential comparison.

The biggest hurdle the movie might face, outside the DC reputation not being the strongest at the moment in comparison to the likes of Marvel, is the 175 minute runtime, a few minutes shy of three hours. Not only might that intimidate some casual fans, but realistically speaking, theaters won’t be able to hold as many individual screenings as they could with movies that are 90-120 minutes long. They could adjust and clear out the rest of their screens, but it’s still worth noting. And not that Batman being dark is anything new, but this is most definitely not a family-friendly adventure like many Marvel movies are. Even with the PG-13 rating, this is drawing comparisons to some intense crime dramas like “Zodiac” and “Se7en.” Reviews are mostly positive, with Rotten Tomatoes being in the high 80 percent range. And hype among fans in general seems quite positive. It’s not quite to the levels of “The Dark Knight” insanity, but good word of mouth, an empty March, and people eager to get out of their houses should lead to a healthy opening weekend and a leggy run with no real competition until April.  

March 11 – 13 

Disney and Pixar's "Turning Red"

*chirp* *chirp* *chirp*
*chirp* *chirp* *chirp*

Can you hear that? It’s the sound of crickets chirping. There are no new wide releases on the second weekend of March. The studios saw Batman on the schedule and said, “Yeah, no. We’ll let Warner Bros. pretty much have the whole month to themselves.”

Although I’d be remiss if I neglected to mention a few streaming titles here. Poor Pixar got shafted for a third straight time as Disney has ditched the theatrical release for Turning Red and sent it straight to streaming, just like “Soul” and “Luca.” “Turning Red” is the coming of age drama where 13-year-old Mei Hulks out and turns into a giant red panda when she gets too excited or stressed. Now I say that it isn’t getting a theatrical release, but Disney does have plans of playing it in the El Capitan Theatre in Los Angeles that they own. And in countries that don’t have Disney+, it will be releasing in theaters for them. So some people in the world will get the chance to see it in theaters. While this could be seen as a bummer for many, the positive spin is that “Encanto” had a mildly underwhelming theatrical run, but absolutely exploded a month later when Disney released it on Disney+, so a Disney+ release is not necessarily a terrible thing.

And I did say “a few” streaming titles. And not that I usually dive into Netflix as they have so much content and it’s often hard to forecast or predict what is coming out and when, but given the zero new theatrical releases, it might be worth noting that Netflix has The Adam Project coming out this weekend. This is Shawn Levy, the director of “Free Guy,” re-teaming with Ryan Reynolds, star of “Free Guy,” for a time travel adventure. Ryan Reynolds is a pilot who crash lands in 2022 and teams up with his younger self to save the world. The movie also co-stars Mark Ruffalo, Jennifer Garner, Catherine Keener, and Zoe Saldana.  

March 18 – 20

Sony Pictures' "Umma"

There were a handful of movies coming out this weekend. Some fairly notable ones, too. Guy Ritchie had a Jason Statham-starring action comedy called “Operation Fortune: Ruse de guerre” that was set to release here, but recently ditched the schedule for a yet-to-be-determined date in 2022. And the next Downton Abbey movie, “Downton Abbey: A New Era,” would’ve provided some great counterprogramming to both that and “The Batman.” But that moved to May 19, 2022. So we’re left again with a fairly empty weekend.

However, holding its ground is the Easter-targeted movie The Unbreakable Boy. While not a direct religious movie, this does come from Jon Gunn, director of “The Case for Christ” and “Do You Believe?” and has on the poster that it’s from the creators of “I Can Only Imagine.” It’s based on the true story of a young boy named Austin, who, despite having a brittle bone disease and autism, has a life-affirming and joyous world view. The movie also stars Zachary Levi, most likely as the one of the kid’s parents. Levi also recently starred in another quasi-religious movie, “American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story.” Easter isn’t until April 17 this year, but it certainly doesn’t hurt to get a head start. The challenge for this movie is that, despite retaining this release spot, I can’t find a trailer for it. So I don’t know how heavily this is being advertised or what the awareness is. This type of movie at this spot has done well historically, so if Lionsgate wants to start advertising it, it could do well.

Attempting to take advantage of the departure of “Operation Fortune” and “Downton Abbey” is Sony Pictures recently announcing that they’ll be releasing Umma in wide release. This does have a trailer that was released a couple of days ago, and it is coming out on this day, as Sony says on the trailer title that it’s exclusively in theaters on March 18. So regardless of what happens with “The Unbreakable Boy,” there is at least one new movie to see. “Umma” is a horror film that is produced by Sam Raimi and is some sort of haunting movie about a woman whose mother just died. Either the mother has come back to haunt her or the woman is scared of turning into her mother. The woman and her daughter are Korean and the trailer told me that “Umma” means mother, although I don’t know Korean, so don’t quote me on that. On the third weekend of February, “The Cursed” opened in ninth place with $1.8 million, so that will mostly likely be the goal or range for “Umma.”

Also a quick streaming note, Disney+ could potentially dominate the conversation, at least with family audiences as Disney will be releasing be releasing their latest remake of Cheaper by the Dozen on Disney+ this weekend, with Zach Braff and Gabrielle Union playing the parents of a blended family of 12. For those keeping track, this is the third “Cheaper by the Dozen” movie, following the original 1950 film and the 2003 remake with Steve Martin. Both of those movies got a sequel, which makes this newest movie that fifth “Cheaper by the Dozen” movie to come out. The story was originally an autobiographical novel written by siblings Frank B. Gilbreth, Jr. and Ernestine Gilbreth Carey, released in 1948, with a follow-up novel released in 1952. It’s also been adapted into a stage play and stage musical.

March 25 – 27  

Paramount's "The Lost City"

No wide new releases on the second weekend of March. One, maybe two, new wide releases on the third weekend of March. And just one new wide release on this final weekend of March. The studios really did clear the way for “The Batman.” The one lone wide release for this weekend is The Lost City from Paramount. When I did my yearly movie preview in January, I looked at this title and thought that it could be a sleeper hit. Looking at the schedule for this month, I now definitely think it could be, especially if the reviews end up positive. This stars Channing Tatum, who just had a surprise hit with “Dog,” and Sandra Bullock teaming up for an action/adventure comedy. Sandra Bullock plays a best-selling romance novelist who is on tour with her cover model, played by Tatum, when she’s kidnapped by a billionaire, played by Daniel Radcliffe, who wants her to lead him to the treasure for the lost city in her latest novel. Tatum comes to rescue her and that’s how the two wind up on this wacky adventure. On top of those three, Brad Pitt is also in the movie as a CIA Agent. So yeah, loaded cast, fun premise, and empty schedule could lead this to doing well. A similar action/adventure movie, “Uncharted,” just opened to $44 million last month. Granted, that had Tom Holland and a built-in video game fan base, but I wouldn’t be too surprised to see “The Lost City” not too far behind. The movie is also getting an Early Access screening in 225 theaters on March 19 via Fandango to build hype, which tells me that the studio has confidence in their product.

Again, that’s the only release of this weekend. But given the empty market, it’s worth noting some quick limited release movies throughout the month. A24 has three on schedule, with “After Yang” on March 4, “X” on March 18, and “Everything Everywhere All At Once” on March 25. On March 18, Focus Features will be releasing “The Outfit,” Amazon will be releasing “Master,” and Roadside Attractions will be releasing “Alice.” On March 25, Sony Pictures Classics has both “The Duke” and “Mothering Sunday,” while Bleeker Street has “Infinite Storm.” Any one of those could wind up as a wide or semi-wide release if studios want to take advantage of the empty schedule. And if not, we’ll all either be on Netflix all month or seeing “The Batman” a hundred times.