As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com. The movies listed are the ones currently scheduled for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are subject to change.
July 1 – 4
Starting us off with a bang this
month is the return of the crazy, little yellow guys that parents hate and
children love. That’s Minions: The Rise of Gru.
This is a movie that effectively serves both as a sequel to 2015’s “Minions”
and a prequel to 2010’s “Despicable Me” as it connects the dots between the two
in bringing in a young Gru, with Steve Carell returning to voice Gru. Now if
you’re rolling your eyes and wondering why we’re getting a sequel to “Minions,”
this one is an absolute no-brainer. Sure, in some circles that “Minions” movie
was burned to a crisp and called one of the worst movies to ever exist. But
guess what? Your 5-year-old doesn’t care about opinions of the grumpy critics
and film Twitter members who’ve become keyboard warriors in trashing the little
yellow guys. Point in case, did you know that “Minions,” when it came out,
became the second highest grossing animated movie ever at the worldwide box
office behind only “Frozen”? Currently it still stands at No. 4 on that list as
only “Frozen 2” and “Incredibles 2” have passed it. Again, your 5-year-old
doesn’t care about internet opinions.
Universal's "Minions: The Rise of Gru"
The honest question going into the weekend was the state of the economy. As mentioned, the theatrical business is doing great. But most of the movies doing well have been mostly targeted at adult males, who have been the quickest audience to rush back to theaters. Is it possible that the family audiences are the ones that are less likely to rush back because parents are paying tickets for the entire family instead of a ticket just for themselves? And could that be one of the reasons why “Lightyear” failed in June despite everything around it succeeding? While that is certainly still a potential factor, coming out of the weekend the answer seems to be that “Lightyear” problems are specific to that movie alone and not the entire target audience. “Minions: The Rise of Gru,” as of me typing this, has an estimated weekend 3-day opening of $108 million and a 4-day opening of nearly $130 million, making it the fourth $100 million opener of the summer. Potential questions of franchise fatigue or the fact that it’s been five years since the last entry in the franchise and seven years since the previous “Minions” movie also seemed to have not been as big of an issue as potentially thought.
Sneaking into a moderately wide release this weekend was Bleeker Street’s Mr. Malcolm’s List. Its theater count was 1,384 theaters and the weekend estimates have it down in seventh place with $851,853. The math on that is $616 per theater, which is not particularly good. Despite not getting a whole lot of attention, the story behind this is fascinating. In 2009, author Suzanne Allain self-published her novel, “Mr. Malcom’s List,” and adapted it into a screenplay. It was discovered by filmmaker Emma Holly James in 2015 and a short film was made first. Following the success of the short film, the green light was officially given for this feature-length film and the novel was published in 2020 by Berkley Press. The book and movie itself is a PG-rated period piece about a young woman in 1800s England helping a friend get revenge on a suitor who rejected her. Given the soft opening for the movie, it’s conceivable that this hits streaming or VOD of some sort before too terribly long.
July 8 – 10
Two movies in two weekends
both opening above $100 million start July off, after the busy May and June we’ve
already had? Almost certainly. Because this weekend has the second MCU opening
of the year with Taika Waititi’s Thor: Love and Thunder. Back
in 2017, Waititi pulled off an impressive feat with “Thor: Ragnarok,”
completely resurrecting the character of Thor and his franchise following the
first two entries that are, generally speaking, among the lesser received movies
of the MCU. Not as many people cared about Thor in comparison to the likes of
Iron Man and Captain America. But “Ragnarok” instantly changed that as the movie
is still considered as one of the MCU’s best and made Thor an A-lister hero.
Add in two more Avengers movies after “Ragnarok,” that of course being “Infinity
War” and “Endgame,” and in an interesting turn of events Thor has now outlasted
most of the OG Avengers in the MCU, becoming the first sub-franchise in the MCU
to get a fourth film. Thor’s journey in “Love and Thunder” sees him relaxing
and enjoying his “retirement” from being a superhero after we last left off in “Endgame”
with him going off with the Guardians of the Galaxy, who will make an
appearance here in at least the first act of the movie. But his conflict here
will see him face Gorr the God Butcher, played by Christian Bale, while teaming
up with ex-girlfriend Jane Foster who is now the “Female Thor” counterpart,
with Natalie Portman returning to her role.
Marvel’s "Thor: Love and Thunder"
Financially speaking, after the first two Thor movies opened to $65.7 million and $85.7 million, “Ragnarok” was given a huge boost to a $122.7 million opening following the insane hype from the trailers that led to very positive word of mouth, a surprise that many didn’t see coming. It finished with $315 million domestically and $850 million worldwide, all numbers that “Love and Thunder” should be able to comfortable hit. MCU fatigue and a slew of huge movies already this summer could theoretically hinder the movie a bit. But the idea that people are getting tired of the MCU has yet to reflect in the actual box office totals. “Love and Thunder” isn’t expected to hit the numbers of the previous two MCU films, “Spider-Man: No Way Home” and “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness,” both of which had event level hype behind them, but it’ll probably hit somewhere between the opening of “Ragnarok” and the $187.4 million opening of “Multiverse of Madness.” Box Office Pro has it projected between $140-160 million currently, which would put it slightly ahead of March’s “The Batman,” which opened with $134 million.
July 15 – 17
After two straight weekends
in July with huge openings, the third weekend of July will be a bit of a
cool-down weekend, which is par for the course following a big MCU release.
However, there are three movies this weekend that will be throwing themselves
into the race, hoping to land somewhere in the top 10 or top 5. Current
tracking has Where the Crawdads Sing leading the pack. This is based
on a book that has become a bit of a phenomenon in the last few years. It was
published in 2018 and has already sold 12 million copies by January 2022. It
was written by Delia Owens and is a mystery/thriller novel following two timelines,
the first being a young girl named Kya growing up in the marshes of North
Carolina and the second being a murder investigation of a local celebrity. The
setting is that of the 1950s and 60s. The movie is being directed by Olivia
Newman and stars Daisy Edgar-Jones in the lead role as the Marsh Girl. The
current long-range forecast from Box Office Pro pegs it at $17-26 million for
its opening, which would put it in line with June’s “The Black Phone,” which
opened to a healthy $23.6 million.
Sony Pictures' "Where the Crawdads Sing"
The next movie of the weekend is another animated film, although this one being a smaller animated film called Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank. This is a cat and dog movie universe with a premise surrounding beagle named Hank who is being trained to be a samurai by a cat mentor named Jimbo so that he can beat the evil giant cat, Ika Chu, who is trying to destroy their village. If it feels like a low budget version of something like “Kung Fu Panda,” that might be accurate, although the initial idea was for it to be loosely based on Mel Brooks’ “Blazing Saddles” from 1974. It was even called “Blazing Samurai” at one point. This is an animated movie that has actually been stuck in Production Hell for quite some time, potentially as early as 2010. It’s passed through several hands and has had quite the evolution. Its initial release date was April 2017 by Open Roads and its long journey has landed it with Paramount Animation, stuck between two major animated movies on the July schedule where it will probably get mostly ignored. An opening around $10 million is the expectation.
The third movie of the weekend is Focus Features’ Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. Although scheduled as a wide release, this might be closer to a moderate release like “Mr. Malcom’s List.” Also like that movie, this is a historical drama following a British woman. The setting is a century later in the 1950s, so perhaps not a period piece for this one, but it does have a comedic undertone as a widowed cleaning lady embarks on a journey to Paris after becoming obsessed with a Dior dress. This is based on a novel from 1958 called “Mrs. ‘Arris Goes to Paris” that had three subsequent sequels with Mrs. Harris going to New York, Parliament, and Moscow. In the U.K., it was published as “Flowers for Mrs. Harris.”
July 22 – 24
Not many filmmakers in today’s
market can sell a movie simply by their name alone. But Jordan Peele has
quickly become one of them following “Get Out” and “Us.” Really, though, he did
that after his first movie, “Get Out,” became a phenomenal sensation in 2017.
And now he has his next movie, Nope, coming out this
weekend, getting the entire weekend to itself in regards to new releases. The
premise of “Nope” has even been mostly shrouded in mystery. It’s quite simply
been advertised as “Jordan Peele’s next movie” and has gotten serious hype with
that alone. That said, this is a horror film, of course, and the general theory
is that it has something to do with aliens and thus might dive into the sci-fi
horror realm. Even with that basic knowledge, the trailers themselves have been
also extremely vague and the idea is that there’s a lot that Jordan Peele has
up his sleeve with this one that audiences are excited to figure out. After “Get
Out” was a sensation, “Us” fed off of that to an opening of $71.1 million, the
highest opening weekend ever for a horror film not based off any IP. “Nope” is
expected to at least come close to that with an opening in the range of $50-70
million.
Universal's "Nope"
July 29 – 31
The month of July will close
with another big animated movie, DC League of Super Pets. While
maybe not expected to open nearly as big as “Minions: The Rise of Gru,” this
one definitely has breakout potential with a lot of crossover audience as this
is not just a fun family film targeted at kids, but this is also a DC film that
will at least have comic book fans curious. The stars of the show are the pets
of Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman, The Flash, and Green Lantern, who themselves
also have super powers. And yes, these pets are canonical to the DC comics. In
addition to the comic book realm, these pets are voiced by the likes of Dwayne
Johnson, Kevin Hart and Kate McKinnon. The movie also has John Krasinski as the
voice of Superman and Keanu Reeves as the voice of Batman in limited roles. So
yeah, there’s a lot of ammunition here, especially given that Dwayne Johnson
and Kevin Hart have led quite the number of surprise hits. In regards to an
animated movie about pets having a… secret life, I am reminded of the huge
breakout hit that was “The Secret Life of Pets.” So don’t underestimate the
potential of an animated movie about pets, even if it doesn’t hit as high as
that one.
Warner Bros.' "DC League of Super Pets"
While there are a lot of pros here, there are also plenty of potential cons. While this summer has been very consistent in delivering big hits, even in pre-COVID times it was very common for some movies to fail because there are too many of them. While there will be four weeks in between “Minions” and “Super Pets,” it’s possible that “Minions” is simply the movie choice for family audiences this summer. Even though these characters are based off of comics, this is the beginning of a new attempted franchise. Especially in the realm of animation, animated sequels often play much better than original animated films. And we also have the fact that Warner Animation Group, which this is from, doesn’t have as successful of a history as the likes of Pixar, Disney, and Illumination. Not counting their COVID releases, their previous six animated movies have averaged an opening of $36.8 million. This should beat the average, but a $40-60 million opening might be a better expectation rather than matching “Minions” or “The Secret Life of Pets” in opening above $100 million.
Officially finishing off this post is another Focus Features release called Vengeance. Like Focus’s other release from this month, “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” this is likely a moderate release. That’s generally their strategy. Judging based off of the trailer, this is appears to be a blend of genres as a comedic western of sorts set in modern Texas where a podcaster and a journalist goes to Texas to investigate a murder of a girl that he once hooked up with. This is written and directed by B.J. Novak, who played Ryan Howard in “The Office,” in his feature-length directorial debut. He’s directed a handful of TV episodes, including five episodes of “The Office,” but this will be his first movie. Novak also stars as the lead role and is joined by the likes of Ashton Kutcher, Dove Cameron, Boyd Holbrook, and Issa Rae. As an alternative option to some of the bigger blockbuster affair, this could gain some traction if word of mouth ends up being solid, but it’s not likely to have a huge opening.
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