What that all added up to, though, was a historically low September. But that’s what happens when Hollywood forgets to schedule much. While those three movies did fine, there was no “IT” or “Shang-Chi” type of movie opening to boost the month’s numbers and thus we were left with the lowest accumulative September box office since 1996, not counting September 2020 when movies were just barely starting to come back. But if you’re a movie fan and you feel you are suffering from a lack of options, no need to worry. The holiday season is around the corner and that should leave the year off with a bang. October specifically is a bit light on quantity, but there are some major hits on schedule that should help prime the box office for said holiday season.
As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com. The movies listed are the ones currently scheduled for a wide theatrical release in the United States and Canada and are always subject to change.
October 7 – 9
The first weekend of October,
the beginning of the final quarter of the year, begins with what might be a bit
of a slow start. In fact, Box Office Pro suggests in their weekend preview that
it’s a possibility that “Smile” repeats at No. 1.
Sony Pictures' "Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile"
As far as the two new wide releases, the one likely to open ahead is Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile. This is based off of the 1965 children’s book of the same name, written by Bernard Waber, which was actually a sequel to the 1962 book, “The House on East 88th Street.” The general idea of the book series is that a family moves into a home where a performing crocodile is living in the bathtub and they eventually learn to love him and accept him as family. In 1987, it was adapted into an animated musical TV special for HBO and now we’re coming full circle, combining all of that in a live-action feature-length musical film starring Shawn Mendes as Lyle, with original music by Pasek and Paul, who did the music for “La La Land,” “The Greatest Showman” and “Dear Evan Hansen.” Whether or not anyone asked for this is a different conversation, but the family audience it is intended for is the audience that is less critical, so any sort of reviews and reaction will probably be irrelevant. Last year the live-action “Clifford the Big Red Dog” opened to $16.6 million. Somewhere along those lines in the mid-teen millions is where “Lyle” will probably open. Depending on how good “Smile” holds, that could be good enough for No. 1.
The second movie opening this weekend is David O. Russell’s Amsterdam. David O. Russell is a filmmaker who has been a very strong awards darling over the years, achieving plenty of success with “The Fighter,” “Silver Linings Playbook” and “American Hustle.” So his first film since “Joy” in 2015 has come with lots of anticipation. And as often is the case with David O. Russell films, it’s an acting party, with Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, John David Washington, Chris Rock, Anya Taylor-Joy, Zoe Saldana, Mike Myers, Michael Shannon, Timothy Olyphant, Rami Malek, Robert De Niro, and even Taylor Swift, amongst others, all joining said party. Unfortunately for this movie, though, is that critical reaction is in the dumpster, with a 30 percent Rotten Tomatoes score through nearly 100 reviews. In this case, that’s the audience that needs to be pleased if it’s going to achieve its ultimate goal of being a major awards contender. That reaction says that awards are out of the question, which puts this in a bit of an awkward spot. What is the movie? Yeah, that’s the question here. Advertising has it framed as a 1930s murder mystery, but much of the reaction so far has it pegged as a big, convoluted mess in terms of plot, tone, and pretty much overall movie identity. Unless general audience reaction is stronger than critical reaction, this could be forgotten in record time.
That’s it for the wide releases, but since we’re beginning awards season, with the major film festivals having happened this past month, a couple of notable releases on the limited release front. First is TÁR, which is directed by Todd Field and sees Cate Blanchett play a fictional character named Lydia Tár, who in the context of this movie’s universe is a world famous music composer and conductor of a German orchestra. Word is that Blanchett, who is in pretty much every scene of this film, is well on her way to a Oscar nomination for best actress and may be one of the early strong contenders to win.
The other limited release is Triangle of Sadness. While this might be a bit too heavy and/or unique for major Oscar contention – it’s about cruise ship full of super rich people that sinks and leaves the survivors trapped on an island – this is the winner of the Palme d’Or, the big prize coming out of the Cannes Film Festival. While not a great Oscar predictor by any means, the 2019 winner was “Parasite” and that did end up winning best picture. So this one is at least worth mentioning.
And finally, Fathom Events is having their Fright Fest event throughout October. As a part of that pertaining to this weekend, they will be playing Steven Spielberg’s 1982 film Poltergeist from October 6 – 12. On October 9th and 10th, they will be releasing Scream 2. Later in the month with this event, they will be releasing Bram Stoker’s Dracula on October 23rd and 27th. And on October 29th they will have a one-day double feature of Creature from the Black Lagoon from 1954 and Phantom of the Opera from 1943.
October 14 – 16
The second weekend of October
is where things start firing up at the box office. And that’s because this weekend
sees the final entry in the Halloween franchise, Halloween Ends. Or
that’s what they claim, anyways. Never believe Hollywood when they say
something is the final chapter, especially with this franchise and its very
complicated timeline that has probably seen the franchise “end” several times
already. And Michael Myers gets “killed” in just about every movie. But
nevertheless, that’s what they’re going with this particular premise, given the
title and the marketing. The whole film is centered around the idea of a final
battle between Michael and Laurie Strode. Even if they find a way to continue
the franchise yet again, the idea of a final film in a popular franchise can
often be a very strong selling point. It often puts the movie onto a more
event-level status that boosts the box office.
Universal's "Halloween Ends"
In terms of that box office, the 2018 reboot of this planned trilogy performed very well, opening to $76.2 million and finishing with $159.4 million domestically. The middle chapter, “Halloween Kills,” fell off quite a bit in compared to that, but still opened to $49.4 million and finished with $92 million. So yeah, both films were extremely front-loaded, which is not surprising for a major horror franchise, but nevertheless those openings are still among the best ever for the horror genre. While middling reaction to “Kills” might lead to some fall-off with this third film, that idea of it being a final film should at least make this come close to that $49.4 million mark. “Halloween Ends” is also being released day-and-date on Peacock for subscribers, which doesn’t help its box office outlook, but “Kills” actually did the same thing, so the comparison still very much stands.
“Halloween Ends” is the only new wide release of the weekend, but again on the limited front with awards season heating up, this weekend will see the release of Till in select locations before its scheduled wide expansion on October 28. The subject matter here immediately puts it into the spotlight as this is a movie about Emmett Till, a 14-year-old black kid who was abducted, tortured, and lynched in the summer of 1955, and whose killers were acquitted in trial. This particular movie centers around Emmett’s mother, Mamie Till Mobley, and her relentless pursuit justice for her son.
October 21 – 23
The biggest movie event of
the month for October falls in this third weekend with DC’s release of Black
Adam. Played by Dwayne Johnson in this film introduction of the
character, Black Adam is an anti-hero in the DC universe and has often been one
of the main archenemies of Shazam. In fact, there was a time in which it was
planned on introducing him as a character in 2019’s “Shazam!,” before switching
course and deciding to introduce him in his own solo film. While DC has
certainly been in a constant, unstable whirlwind for much of the last decade or
more, a “Shazam!” movie has been in talks since the 2000s and Dwayne Johnson
has been a part of those talks for almost the whole time in one way or another.
He was almost cast as Shazam before officially being cast as Black Adam in
2014. It was in 2017 when they decided to split the two projects and give Black
Adam his own solo film. And while an official crossover hasn’t been announced
between the characters of Black Adam and Shazam, that seems more of a matter of
time than anything, especially since “Shazam! Fury of the Gods” is next up for
DC after “Black Adam,” currently scheduled for March 17, 2023.
Warner Bros.' "Black Adam"
Financially, Black Adam as a character isn’t as well-known as some of the others in the DC library. And as a whole, the reputation of DC as of late is still shaky at best. Audiences haven’t been nearly as willing to rush out to see the latest DC movie like they have been for most things Marvel. But still, there does seem to be plenty of positive anticipation for this, especially considering the star power of Dwayne Johnson. And although “Shazam!” in 2019 didn’t quite break the bank in compared to other comic book films, it did have a healthy $53.5 million opening at the time and has been mostly well-received, not only initially but also in the few years since as more people have discovered. That should lead “Black Adam” to an opening of at least $50 million, if not approaching a $70-80 million opening of various Marvel solo outings.
Opening alongside “Black Adam” as this weekend’s other wide release is Ticket to Paradise. This is a rom-com that stars George Clooney and Julia Roberts as a divorced couple that travel to Bali to attempt to sabotage their daughter’s wedding after learning she’s about to marry a man named Gede that she just met. Their motivation is to stop their daughter from making the same mistake they believe they made. As somewhat of a throwback to a cheesy 2000s rom-com, this very much could play as some good counterprogramming for those that either aren’t interested in superhero affair or horror films. And it certainly has the star power to work out and 32 million views on its YouTube trailer, which says that it has people’s attention. The counter against it is that the rom-com in 2022, or even in the last several years, hasn’t been as strong as it once was in regards to box office draw. “Marry Me” from earlier in this year had similarly everything going for it as well, but could only muster a $7.9 million opening. And that was around Valentine’s Day. So this is not a guaranteed hit, but rather stands as something with potential. And perhaps it might play better as a streaming option in the near future.
Again on the limited front, another major candidate for awards hitting this weekend will be The Banshees of Inisherin. This is a movie from Martin McDonagh, whose previous movie was “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” a double Oscar winner with seven total nominees. “Banshees” stars Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson as two lifelong friends on a remote Irish island who find themselves in an awkward situation when one of them decides they don’t want to be friends anymore. After a very successful festival run, “Banshees” currently has a perfect 100 percent on Rotten Tomatoes with 60 reviews counted to go along with a 90 score on Metacritic. What that translates to when it hits general audiences might present a different story, but its rewards prospects initially seem very high, especially since this is also one of Searchlight’s big awards contenders. For context, Searchlight has won best picture with one of their releases five times since 2009, so they have a good track record.
The other notable limited release is Aftersun, another popular festival hit that debuted in Cannes and has hit just about everything else along the way afterwards. This might have a slightly more difficult uphill battle than “Banshees,” which comes from a director with high Oscar prestige, whereas “Aftersun” is directed by Charlotte Wells in her feature-length directorial debut, but nevertheless it’s about a girl reflecting on the relationship she had with her father, which seems to come with plenty of positives and negatives. The release is handled by A24, which has had a very strong year. If not an awards contender, it might at least be in conversations of smaller movies worth seeing.
October 28 – 30
Halloween will be on a Monday
this year, which means there’s a whole weekend of movie going possible leading
up to the actual holiday. The could work to the advantage of some horror movies
in the market, especially this final one of the month, Prey for the Devil.
And yes, that is the correct spelling of the word “prey.” A bit of play on
words there. But they’re hunting the devil. Preying. Not kneeling down and
praying. By the looks of this trailer, it looks like it’s almost cut and paste
from 1973’s “The Exorcist,” which is something that has been done a thousand
times before, so that’s nothing shocking. In this exorcism movie spin, there’s
a nun who is feeling the calling to become the first female exorcist, possibly
to chase a demon that has been haunting her or has some connection to her past.
Now despite the timely release date, there’s no guarantee that this movie hits.
If reaction is poor, horror fans might just catch up on “Smile” or “Halloween
Ends” instead. So a lot will be riding on what the reviews are like here.
Lionsgate's "Prey for the Devil"
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