The 97th Academy Awards: Predictions

It’s once again time for the Academy Awards! As you may or may not be aware of, I’m pretty nerdy when it comes to awards season. I follow the awards buzz all year long, with several podcasts I listen to, along with following many people over on Twitter. So Oscar night is always one of my favorite nights of the year. And as such, this is one of my favorite posts that I do each year. I go through every single category here listing the nominees, then I make my prediction of who will win as well as my pick for who I think should win. With the latter, I basically treat it as if I had an Oscar ballot. And with that, I do my absolute best to see as many nominees as I can before making my pick. Ultimately this all means nothing, but it’s a lot of fun for me, so I enjoy this as a yearly project. The final FINAL way to wrap up the previous year in movies.

If I end up being way off with my picks, then all is well. I’m the only one that will remember. In a way, this stands as a gauge of how predictable things ended up being. And sometimes it can be fun for things to be unpredictable. And let me tell you, this could be one of those seasons that could very well end up like that. There’s no way I can do the whole season justice in a paragraph or two, but there never was a strong front runner. One could say it was a weaker year for awards season. And I personally think that’s accurate to a degree. But it also made it fun to follow. Instead of having a movie like “Oppenheimer” come through and sweep through everything, like was the case last year, the winds have blown a lot of different ways. About half of the movies in the best picture lineup have had their turn being the “front runner.” You’ll see where I think we’ve landed on. But even several of the people who I follow the closest have very different opinions of what’s going to happen. So I just have to go with my gut. You can follow the precursors. You can listen to what others are saying. You can look at the odds on Gold Derby. But even with all of that, this still might be the least confident I’ve been going into Oscar night. And that’s kind of excited!

Anyways, this post is always long, but the goal is to have it organized in a way that makes it easy to scroll through. You can read through my whole commentary or just glance through my picks. It’s up to you! But if you have any thoughts, comments, or predictions of your own, I’d love to hear them!

Documentary Short Film

Nominations

- “Death By Numbers” – Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard
- “I Am Ready, Warden” – Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp
- “Incident” – Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven
- “Instruments of a Beating Heart” – Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari
- “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” – Molly O'Brien and Lisa Remington

Will Win

- “Incident” – Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven

Should Win

- “Instruments of a Beating Heart” – Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari

We start here with the shorts. And honestly, even though these are the categories that are often looked over, I have a lot of fun watching them. They’re usually pretty good and pretty easy to go through, given that they are… shorts. The issue is accessibility. You’ll see that the other two categories were fairly inaccessible. These ones were available to be watched. Four of the five, anyways. I couldn’t find “Death by Numbers,” but the other four are on either Paramount+, Neftlix, or YouTube. As far as what I think is going to win. Well, that’s often quite impossible. You almost have to just pick one out of a hat. Or in this category, try to predict which hot button topic you think the Academy will go for. You have school shootings (“Death By Numbers”), police brutality (“Incident”), and the death penalty (“I Am Ready, Warden”) as options this year. I’m taking my shot in the predictions with “Incident,” which looks at direct footage compiled from another police shooting of a man back in 2018 who definitely did not pose a threat or even pull out his gun, but got killed anyways. With my personal pick, though, I went through all these heavy short documentaries, then had my heart melt with “Instruments of a Beating Heart,” which follows a class of young school kids practicing for a musical performance. Maybe it’s the band nerd in me, but this was just delightful. And hey, it’s quite possible that some Oscar voters reacted that way, too?

Animated Short Film

Nominations

- “Beautiful Men” – Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Ban Elslande
- “In the Shadow of the Cypress” – Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi
- “Magic Candies” – Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio
- “Wander to Wonder” – Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper
- “Yuck!” – Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet

Will Win

- “Magic Candies” – Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio

Should Win

- N/A

This is usually the category of shorts that’s the most accessible. But in this case, none of these were available to be watched or streamed on the internet or a streaming service. I found that odd. You had to make the trek out to the theaters to watch them. And I did not make that trek. So I have not watched any of them. In which case, it makes it hard to predict how this will go. So I did my very unscientific approach of looking at the vote totals and scores for each on IMDb and Letterboxd. And I know that’s not indicative of Oscar voters. But if I can see a trend of general reaction, that’s sometimes carried over? In which case, it seems like “Magic Candies” has the slight heads up, followed by “In the Shadow of the Cypress.” So I went for “Magic Candies.” Funny enough, the Gold Derby odds claim “Yuck!” is the favorite. I don’t want to make my predictions based on Gold Derby. That seems boring. But that does seem to indicate that no one knows what’s going to happen here. Pick one and hope you’re right.

Live Action Short Film

Nominations

- “A Lien” – Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz
- “Anuja” – Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai
- “I’m Not a Robot” – Victoria Warmerdam and Trent
- “The Last Ranger” – Cindey Lee and Darwin Shaw
- “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” – Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek

Will Win

- “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” – Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek

Should Win

- N/A

The top three of these are available to be watched. I have not gotten around to them. I’ll confess that I ran out of time and didn’t want to wait any longer to get this post out. But yet the bottom two are not available, anyways. And that last one seems like the favorite based on my unscientific approach of looking at IMDb and Letterboxd scores. It’s also the Gold Derby favorite. And if I’m not capable of watching the one that seems most likely to win, then it doesn’t feel right for me to make a personal judgment call based on half of them. So I didn’t bother. Again, I can see any of these winning. I’ve often gone 0 for 3 with the shorts, so let’s see how lucky I get this time around.

International Feature Film

Nominations

- “I’m Still Here” – Brazil
- “The Girl with the Needle” – Denmark
- “Emilia Pérez” – France
- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” – Germany
- “Flow” – Latvia

Will Win

- “I’m Still Here” – Brazil

Should Win

- “Flow” – Latvia

Funny enough, this is usually one of the categories where I don’t make a personal pick, just because it often happens where the international contenders haven’t had had wide U.S. distribution. But I did manage to see three of these. And even though “The Girl with the Needle” and “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” are the two I haven’t seen, and thus I kinda feel guilty making a personal pick without having seen them, I loved “Flow” so much that I’m confident it will remain my favorite. It’s on Max now, so go watch it. As far as the predicted winner, this is where we could have a very long conversation about “Emilia Pérez,” which roared onto the scene on Oscar nomination day with 13 nominations, leading all movies and being one away from the all-time record. Clearly Oscar voters love the movie. But not too long after the nominations came out, the controversy surrounding the film roared even louder. That hurt the movie bad, but what officially tanked the movie’s chances were a string of comments made by the movie’s lead, Karla Sofía Gascón. Suddenly the movie went from best picture winner to a movie where the Academy may feel guilty that they gave it so many nominations. At one point it was a slam dunk to at least win this category, but now this is a toss up. I still think that “Emilia Pérez” could win here. But if you haven’t explored Twitter recently, there is a massive Army in support of “I’m Still Here.” And for good reason. The movie is excellent! And it’s also a best picture nominee, which makes me feel somewhat safe in going with the momentum. But as with many categories, this feels like a coin flip. Let’s see if I flipped the right coin.

Documentary Feature Film

Nominations

- “Black Box Diaries” – Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari and Hanna Aqvilin
- “No Other Land” – Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham
- “Porcelain War” – Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska and Paula DuPre' Pesmen
- “Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat” – Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius and Rémi Grellety
- “Sugarcane” – Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn

Will Win

- “No Other Land” – Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham

Should Win

- N/A

The best documentary I watched from this last year was “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story.” It did not get nominated. I’ve also heard great things about “Will & Harper” and “Daughters.” They also did not get nominated. So this was a weird year for this category. Also, the middle three there are not available for me to watch, which disappointed me because I love going through the documentaries. I did watch “Black Box Diaries” and “Sugarcane.” Of those two, I’d take “Black Box Diaries,” but I won’t make an official pick. Using my unscientific method for the shorts, “No Other Land” is miles ahead of the gang in terms of general reaction, and has also done really well in the precursors leading up to the Oscars. So it seems like the winner. It’s about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. When it’s available to be watched, I’ll definitely watch it. If there’s an upset, “Porcelain War” is about Ukraine. So pick your foreign conflict that you think Academy voters will go for. Both feel super relevant. And it doesn’t feel like any of these are easy watches, so there’s not really a “feel good” choice for voters to fall back on.

Music (Original Song)

Nominations

- “El Mal” – Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón and Camille (From “Emilia Pérez”; Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
- “The Journey” – H.E.R. (from “The Six Triple Eight”; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
- “Like a Bird” – Adrian Quesada and Abraham Alexander (from “Sing Sing”; Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada)
- “Mi Camino” – Selena Gomez (From “Emilia Pérez”; Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol)
- “Never Too Late” – Elton John and Brandi Carlile (From “Elton John: Never Too Late”; Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin)

Will Win

- “El Mal” – Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón and Camille (From “Emilia Pérez”; Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)

Should Win

- “Mi Camino” – Selena Gomez (From “Emilia Pérez”; Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol)

Just give Diane Warren her Oscar, already! And this is the perfect year to do it, as this category is pretty weak. All decent songs, but there’s not one that jumps out at you. Sure, the Diane Warren song is from an obscure Netflix movie as opposed to a major best picture contender. But the song is good enough and people like H.E.R., right? No one will be upset that a song that she sang became the time that Diane Warren won her Oscar. That said, maybe I’m a hypocrite because I didn’t vote for it here, either. And yes, I’m giving an Oscar to “Emilia Pérez.” No, it’s not the song that’s been winning everything else. But that Selena Gomez song is really good. I literally paused the movie when the song played and immediately added it to my Apple Music library. I’ve been listening to it on repeat every since. Say what you want about the movie. And I’ll probably agree. But I liked a lot of the music and that song was the best one, even if it wasn’t the song that impacted the plot very much. But “El Mal” was a fun sequence and Zoe went all in when she performed it in the movie, so I’m fine with it winning.

Music (Original Score)

Nominations

- “The Brutalist” – Daniel Blumberg
- “Conclave” – Volker Bertelmann
- “Emilia Pérez” – Clément Ducol and Camille
- “Wicked” – John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
- “The Wild Robot” – Kris Bowers

Will Win

- “The Brutalist” – Daniel Blumberg

Should Win

- “The Brutalist” – Daniel Blumberg

“Challengers” is the correct answer. And I’m really mad that the movie as a whole got goose-egged on nomination morning, when it could’ve easily and probably should’ve been a double digit nominated movie. Picture, director, screenplay, three acting nominations, and a whole bunch of technical stuff. But the score was the best part of the movie and the best score I heard all year. The crazy thing is that Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross did the score and they’ve become Oscar darlings, so I have no idea why they were snubbed. It was the snub that made me the most angry. But OK. Fine. Of the ones that did get in… I believe this is going to “The Brutalist.” I’m not sure exactly how well that movie is going to do, but this seems like it’s most guaranteed win here. And even though I didn’t care for the movie itself, the score is one thing that stood out to me. Brady Corbet tried to make an epic feature and I think he failed in many ways, but Daniel Blumberg understood the assignment and made a score that almost convinced me that I was watching a good movie. Going through all of them again while driving around, “Wicked” and “The Wild Robot” are your tradition run-of-the-mill movie scores. Nothing wrong with that. But not scores that stand out. “Emilia Pérez” is better than you might think, but that movie is mostly focused on songs, not score. So for me it came down to “The Brutalist” vs. “Conclave.” And it was close for my personal choice, but I think “The Brutalist” had a little more variety overall.

Visual Effects

Nominations

- “Alien: Romulus” – Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan
- “Better Man” – Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs
- “Dune: Part Two” – Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer
- “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” – Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke
- “Wicked” – Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould

Will Win

- “Dune: Part Two” – Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer

Should Win

- “Dune: Part Two” – Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer

As I look back on the 2024 awards season, this is a year that “Dune: Part Two” should’ve dominated. And the door was wide open for it to do so. But there’s a lot of strategic campaigning and politics that go into having a successful awards run. And for a handful of reasons I think Warner Bros. completely dropped the ball when it came to the campaign for “Dune: Part Two.” And putting it out in March instead of November didn’t help it, either. And that’s reflected in “Part Two” only getting five nominations total, when “Part One” got 10 nominations. And won six of those. “Part Two” should be sweeping these technical categories. And for good reason. But I’m not even confident in it winning here, which should be a home run for here. There’s a lot of monkeys and apes in this category and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those steals this Oscar away from “Dune.”

Sound

Nominations

- “A Complete Unknown” – Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco
- “Dune: Part Two” – Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill
- “Emilia Pérez” – Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta
- “Wicked” – Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis
- “The Wild Robot” – Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts

Will Win

- “Dune: Part Two” – Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill

Should Win

- “Dune: Part Two” – Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill

I mean, cut and paste what I said in this previous category about “Dune: Part Two.” It should win this, no question. But I have seen some people predicting “Wicked.” Or even “A Complete Unknown.” And I think to a degree that’s confusing sound design with the music. I mean, there’s three music-themed movies in this category – two musicals and a musical biopic. I don’t think that’s the spirit of this category. But I works, I suppose. Granted, this used to be two categories. Sound mixing and sound editing. No one really knew what those meant, sadly. And even less so since it became “best sound.” What’s really missing here is “Civil War.” I mean, talk about botched campaigns. A24 didn’t even try on that one. It got zero nominations when it should’ve at least picked up a whole bunch of these techs.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominations

- “A Different Man” – Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado
- “Emilia Pérez” – Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini
- “Nosferatu” – David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton
- “The Substance” – Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli
- “Wicked” – Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth

Will Win

- “The Substance” – Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli

Should Win

- “The Substance” – Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli

I can’t necessarily recommend that you go watch “The Substance.” It’s a bit of an ask. Unless you really enjoy body horror. In which case, I hope you’ve already seen it. The movie is an absolute riot with one of the craziest and most bonkers third acts I’ve seen. And that’s relevant to this particular conversation because this might be my easiest pick I’ve made on this post for reasons I’m not going to tell you if you don’t know why. This is not the type of movie that usually becomes an Oscar movie, but it amuses me to know end that it did. I don’t know how many wins “The Substance” is going to pick up, but I’m happy that it appears to be a lock for the makeup category. Because that is very deserving. If it wasn’t around, I’d be going for “A Different Man.” But it is around, so I’m happy. More horror at the Oscars, please!

Film Editing

Nominations

- “Anora” – Sean Baker
- “The Brutalist” – David Jancso
- “Conclave” – Nick Emerson
- “Emilia Pérez” – Juliette Welfling
- “Wicked” – Myron Kerstein

Will Win

- “Anora” – Sean Baker

Should Win

- “Anora” – Sean Baker

This is always a weird category for me to personally judge. Some movies it’s obvious when the editing is sharp and excellent. Other movies… well… I guess they say that a sign of a well-edited movie is when you don’t notice the editing at all. And thus how do you go back and judge it? I will be a dork and say that “The Brutalist” and “Wicked” weren’t edited enough. I know that’s not the point of edited. But I don’t know if I like giving editing awards to movies that were way too long and whose pacing felt off. And I’m not giving “Emilia Pérez” an editing award. So that leaves “Anora” and “Conclave”? And I feel that “Anora” had a very smooth, rewarding pace to it, so I’ll go there on my personal take. And Sean Baker, the director of the movie, edited his own movie, which I think is impressive. As far as the prediction, I think this award often ties into best picture. Which I guess that might spoil my prediction for later. But I’m predicting Sean Baker to have a very good night. Pay attention to this category, though. It might seem insignificant, but it could be an indication to how things go. I also often use the ACE Eddy Awards to help me out here with the prediction, but due to the fires in LA, they postponed their ceremony until AFTER the Oscars. I don’t have a problem with that, but that certainly doesn’t help me in regards to predictions, so this is just a gut pick.

Costume Design

Nominations

- “A Complete Unknown” – Arianne Phillips
- “Conclave” – Lisy Christl
- “Gladiator II” – Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
- “Nosferatu” – Linda Muir
- “Wicked” – Paul Tazewell

Will Win

- “Wicked” – Paul Tazewell

Should Win

- “Nosferatu” – Linda Muir

This is one of the categories where “Wicked” is the heavy favorite to win. It won the top prize at the Costume Designers Guild Awards. So I’m not going to go against the grain on that in terms of predictions. Honestly there’s not a movie here that feels really exciting in regards to costume design, so I’ll be happy for “Wicked.” But as you’ll find out, when “Nosferatu” is an option for me to personally vote for, I might have a hard time going against that. And in recreating the retro Gothic horror look in “Nosferatu,” there’s a lot of factors that went into the movie looking perfect. And the costume design of Dracula and company is very well done. It’s also the closest you will come to when it comes to a period piece in this category, which is often the easiest choice. If “Nosferatu” pulls off any upsets, I’ll be ecstatic. But if “Wicked” wins, I won’t be upset.

Cinematography

Nominations

- “The Brutalist” – Lol Crawley
- “Dune: Part Two” – Greig Fraser
- “Emilia Pérez” – Paul Guilhaume
- “Maria” – Ed Lachman
- “Nosferatu” – Jarin Blaschke

Will Win

- “The Brutalist” – Lol Crawley

Should Win

- “Nosferatu” – Jarin Blaschke

I think it’s funny that that the only nomination that “Maria” got was cinematography. I finally watched that movie the other day and it was fine. Not great, but perfectly enjoyable. But the cinematography wasn’t anything particularly special. If it had gotten tagged along with a whole bunch of other nominations, then sure. But the lone nomination for the movie? That’s weird. Although I glanced at my post from last year and was reminded that the same thing happened for “El Conde,” which was Pablo Lorrain’s movie from 2023. So I guess the cinematographers branch loves Pablo Lorrain, but no one else was on board. Pablo Lorrain also did “Jackie” and “Spencer,” so he likes his biopics of female historical figures. The other funny thing is that “Maria” won the top prize at the ASC, the cinematography guild awards. I don’t think that’s helpful because I don’t think it’s getting a win on a lone nomination for this category after being ignored everywhere else. And so this seems like the place for “The Brutalist” to pull in another award. Although if this is the place where “Nosferatu” pulls off an upset, I will be very happy. It’s quite likely that “The Brutalist” has a bad day. The buzz on it has seemed to quiet down. And we’ve already talked about the botched campaign for “Dune: Part Two.” Plus they already gave Greig Fraser this award for “Part One.” I’d personally consider Fraser for my own pick. Him winning recently doesn’t make me shy away. But “Nosferatu” is such a beautifully shot movie. This is the second part of its excellent look when it comes to it’s Gothic horror vibes.

Production Design

Nominations

- “The Brutalist” – Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia
- “Conclave” – Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter
- “Dune: Part Two” – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
- “Nosferatu” – Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová
- “Wicked” – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Will Win

- “Wicked” – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Should Win

- “Nosferatu” – Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová

And while we’re on, the “Nosferatu” trifecta for me comes all in a row. Costume design, cinematography, and the look and design of Dracula’s castle. And yes, I know he’s not called Dracula in this movie, but it’s the easiest way to relate to people. And yes, this is also the second time I’m personally taking away an award from “Wicked” and giving it to “Nosferatu” instead. And yes, that means if I was in charge, I’d be giving “Wicked” a goose egg while allowing “Nosferatu” to have a great night. Don’t hurt me. I did enjoy “Wicked.” But “Nosferatu” was my second favorite movie of last year. What do you expect me to do? Robert Eggers makes excellent movies and the design of them is always fantastic. So I’m happy to see one of his movies getting recognition. Hopefully wins are coming in his future!

Animated Feature Film

Nominations

- “Flow” – Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens and Gregory Zalcman (Dream Well Studio)
- “Inside Out 2” – Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen (Pixar)
- “Memoir of a Snail” – Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney (Multiple Production Companies)
- “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” – Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham and Richard Beek (Aardman Animations)
- “The Wild Robot” – Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann (DreamWorks Animation)

Will Win

- “The Wild Robot” – Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann (DreamWorks Animation)

Should Win

- “The Wild Robot” – Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann (DreamWorks Animation)

A hard one for me to pick, personally. If you’ve talked to me recently, you’ll know that I’ve been obsessed with kitty cat goes meow! And again, “Flow” is on Max. Go watch it! But “The Wild Robot” was my No. 3 movie of last year, so it gets the edge. Both movies were in my top 10. And “Inside Out 2” wasn’t too far behind, so it’s a great year for this category. In regards to prediction, “The Wild Robot” was the heavy favorite after its release due to the near unanimous praise. “Flow” came in and almost seemed to take momentum when it was released and for a bit there is seemed like it was going to pull the upset. But now the pendulum seems to have swung back to “The Wild Robot,” especially after it cleaned house at the Annies – the animation awards. I’m not fully certain which one will win and I’ll be happy with either. Both are deserving. I will also note here that I have not seen “Memoir of a Snail.” When it expands beyond AMC+, I’ll give it a go. It looks go. And if you like Aardman or anything Wallace & Gromit related, “Vengeance Most Fowl” is a delight.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominations

- “A Complete Unknown” – Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
- “Conclave” – Screenplay by Peter Straughan
- “Emilia Pérez” – Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
- “Nickel Boys” – Screenplay by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
- “Sing Sing” – Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield

Will Win

- “Conclave” – Screenplay by Peter Straughan

Should Win

- “Sing Sing” – Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield

We’ve settled on a race that seems to have become “Conclave” vs. “Anora.” And when it comes to these writing categories, our two front runners are in separate categories and they both seem like they’ll walk home with awards, making the end of the night suspenseful. I’m not sure what the upset would be here, but there’s a lot of categories where I’m uncertain what will happen. And this is not one of them. Personally I would love to see “Sing Sing” get a win. That movie was incredible and I’m mad at A24 for botching it’s theatrical release AND awards campaign. I love A24, but they did not do that movie justice. So do yourself justice and go see it somehow!

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominations

- “Anora” – Written by Sean Baker
- “The Brutalist” – Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
- “A Real Pain” – Written by Jesse Eisenberg
- “September 5” – Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David
- “The Substance” – Written by Coralie Fargeat

Will Win

- “Anora” – Written by Sean Baker

Should Win

- “A Real Pain” – Written by Jesse Eisenberg

As I said before, I’m predicting a huge night for Sean Baker. And this is where things start building up for him! Although I would love to see Jesse Eisenberg up there accepting an award. “A Real Pain” and “Sing Sing” were two movies that were both in my top 10 of the year and they would’ve been the top two movies in my best picture ranking, but they both missed in best picture, despite getting screenplay nominations. That made me sad. Some have actually predicted “A Real Pain” to pull the upset here. And although I would love that, I’m not ready to pull the trigger just because of its best picture miss, which might indicate that the Academy isn’t as high on it as others? And actually, as I look at it, this is also a great category as a whole. Outside “The Brutalist,” which I didn’t care for, the other four I all loved.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominations

- Monica Barbaro – “A Complete Unknown”
- Ariana Grande – “Wicked”
- Felicity Jones – “The Brutalist”
- Isabella Rossellini – “Conclave”
- Zoe Saldaña – “Emilia Pérez”

Will Win

- Zoe Saldaña – “Emilia Pérez”

Should Win

- Zoe Saldaña – “Emilia Pérez”

This seems like a category is locked and loaded. On paper, Zoe Saldaña has won literally everything in the precursors. The only question is in regards to “Emilia Pérez” as a whole. If the Academy decides to punish that whole movie, we could see an upset here. But that’s literally not happened in any of the precursors. Not even ones like SAG, whose voting ended AFTER all the controversy. So I think Zoe is safe. And you’ll notice that I gave her the win as well. For me, all the negative with “Emilia Pérez” is not Zoe’s fault. And she gave one heck of a performance. Also, the other ladies here don’t inspire as much joy here for me. Monica was good, but she wasn’t even the best supporting actress in her own movie. That goes to Elle Fanning for me. Sorry “Wicked” fans, but I did not like Ariana Grande in that movie. And I wasn’t shy about saying that. If there’s an upset, I think it would be Isabella Rossellini as lifetime achievement. And if “Conclave” is having a good night, she could get pulled in for the ride. For me, I thought she was good, but not an awards level of good. Same thing with Felicity Jones. So it’s kinda weird for me. There are female supporting roles that I would’ve absolutely been behind, but none of them made it in. So we crown Zoe an Oscar winner. And that’s cool!

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominations

- Yura Borisov – “Anora”
- Kieran Culkin – “A Real Pain”
- Edward Norton – “A Complete Unknown”
- Guy Pearce – “The Brutalist”
- Jeremy Strong – “The Apprentice”

Will Win

- Kieran Culkin – “A Real Pain”

Should Win

- Kieran Culkin – “A Real Pain”

This is literally the easiest prediction of the night. The only slight concern is that “A Real Pain” missed best picture. But Kieran Culkin has also literally won everything. To the point where I think he got a bit tired of the awards shows and didn’t show up to half of them. He was also on the full awards circuit last season for the final season of “Succession,” so I don’t blame him if he’s feeling a bit burnt out. But he was absolutely incredible in this movie, which again was one of my favorites of last year. And a big part of that is because of him. He’s also a silly goofball in real life. I’ve loved his awards speeches and I’m excited for his Oscar speech. The only critique I’d give here is that he feels like a co-lead in the movie with Jesse Eisenberg. He’s in almost every shot of the movie. But I get the argument as to why he’s in supporting. I don’t know how the upset pick would be, but in an alternate universe where he was nominated as a lead, my second choice would be Jeremy Strong, so it was a good movie season for the “Succession” boys.

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominations

- Cynthia Erivo – “Wicked”
- Karla Sofía Gascón – “Emilia Pérez”
- Mikey Madison – “Anora”
- Demi Moore – “The Substance”
- Fernanda Torres – “I’m Still Here”

Will Win

- Demi Moore – “The Substance”

Should Win

- Demi Moore – “The Substance”

Both supporting categories feel like they’re set in stone. Both leads feel like more of a toss-up. It feels like Demi and Mikey have gone back and forth all season. If “Anora” is sweeping, I could see Mikey go along for the ride. But in the midst of this super close race, I told myself that I would go with whatever SAG goes with in terms of my prediction. And SAG went with Demi, so I go Demi. And I do think the Academy loves a comeback story. We’ve had several examples recently. And Demi is that story this season. And I think her speeches when she has won have probably convinced a lot of people on the fence to give her a vote. And if you’ve read any of my posts here where “The Substance” is a choice, you’ll know that I’ve raved about that movie. And Demi goes all in with this movie, giving a career performance. This isn’t just a feel-good comeback or a lifetime achievement. This is the best she’s been. And if we go back to the supporting actress conversation, I mentioned that there’s several supporting performances that I would’ve been behind, had they gotten in. Margaret Qualley would’ve been one of them. Her and Demi were both incredible and played off each other very well. Back to this lead category, I’ve seen some predict Fernanda Torres. I wouldn’t hate that. She was great. But I’ve seen no evidence for that in the precursors. Loud Twitter buzz doesn’t equal awards wins. “Wicked” fans would be happy to know that Cynthia would be my personal No. 2 here. And I’m sure the Academy retroactively go back and remove Karla in favor of someone like Angelina Jolie or Zendaya.

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominations

- Adrien Brody – “The Brutalist”
- Timothée Chalamet – “A Complete Unknown”
- Colman Domingo – “Sing Sing”
- Ralph Fiennes – “Conclave”
- Sebastian Stan – “The Apprentice”

Will Win

- Adrien Brody – “The Brutalist”

Should Win

- Colman Domingo – “Sing Sing”

This category did seem like it was locked up. Adrien Brody was sweeping along with Zoe and Kieran. But then SAG threw us a curveball and gave it to Timothée Chalamet. And that almost makes me want to switch, especially if I’m nervous that “The Brutalist” might have a bad night. But I just can’t quite pull the trigger. Sometimes SAG is right on. Many other times they go three for four. And this just feels like it could be the one they are off on. And I don’t feel like being boring by predicting the SAG four. But maybe that hurts me in the end. I’d be happy for Timmy to become an Oscar winner. He’s going to get one at some point. I didn’t care for his SAG speech, but I love him as an actor and I do think he’s one of the best of his generation and could become an all-time great, even though I’d like to see him be a little more humble about it. But as you see, I personally didn’t go for Adrien or Timmy in my personal pick. Nothing against them. But again, “Sing Sing.” One of my favorite movies of the year. And Colman Domingo gave quite the emotional performance. If A24 didn’t botch that entire movie’s potential, I honestly think he’d be the guy sweeping every award here. Especially since he does feel like he’s overdue at this point. I was tempted to go Ralph Fiennes because he hasn’t won before, but that would be more of a career win and I don’t like doing that. Sebastian Stan I’d be all for if he had gotten in for “A Different Man” instead of “The Apprentice.”

Directing

Nominations

- Sean Baker – “Anora”
- Brady Corbet – “The Brutalist”
- James Mangold – “A Complete Unknown”
- Jacques Audiard – “Emilia Pérez”
- Coralie Fargeat – “The Substance”

Will Win

- Sean Baker – “Anora”

Should Win

- Coralie Fargeat – “The Substance”

Can Sean Baker really win four Oscars in one evening? It’s not been done too often, but it’s also not too often where the director plays so many roles in making the movie. So I feel it would be deserving. Brady Corbet was the early front runner here, but then that all changed when Sean Baker won at the Directors Guild Awards (DGA). And the DGA has a pretty solid track record in predicting the eventual Oscar winner. If Sean Baker doesn’t get four Oscars, it’s because someone else won original screenplay and/or editing. Director feels like the Oscar where he’s most locked in for. And given that the biggest competition for “Anora” has become “Conclave,” the fact that Edward Berger didn’t get a nomination for best director means Baker’s biggest competition doesn’t exist. If there’s an upset here, wouldn’t it be great if it were Coralie Fargeat for “The Substance”? I’m not the best at judging director because that’s a lot of behind the scenes stuff. But there’s a whole lot in “The Substance” that has to be properly balanced and I don’t know who else could’ve pulled that off with the specifics of what happens here. This movie made me really excited to see what she does next! So for me this choice was easy. If there was an upset for my pick, it would be Denis Villeneuve for “Dune: Part Two.” He absolutely deserved to win this award for what he pulled off with that franchise. But he’s also not here. What the heck, Academy?

Best Picture

Nominations

- “Anora” – Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers (NEON)
- “The Brutalist” – Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers (A24)
- “A Complete Unknown” – Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman, Producers (Searchlight)
- “Conclave” – Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, Producers (Focus Features)
- “Dune: Part Two” – Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, Producers (Warner Bros.)
- “Emilia Pérez” – Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers (Netflix)
- “I’m Still Here” – Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Nickel Boys” – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers (Amazon MGM)
- “The Substance” – Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner, Producers (MUBI)
- “Wicked” – Marc Platt, Producer (Universal)

Will Win

- “Anora” – Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers (NEON)

Should Win

- “The Substance” – Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner, Producers (MUBI)

And here we have arrived. Best picture for the year 2024. And honestly, if we’re giving the award to the movie that is the most culturally relevant of the year, it would probably deserve to be “Dune: Part Two” or “Wicked.” But that’s not how I’d vote if I had a ballot, nor is that how the Academy always goes. I go for my favorite movie that made the list because I don’t think there should be a stereotype as to what type of movie should be winning awards. Why not have a body horror movie like “The Substance” win best picture? That would be awesome! And it’s my favorite of the 10! If you want to see my full ranking of all 10 of these movies, head over to my Letterboxd. My profile is @AdamDroge. You can also see my top 25 of the year as a whole. And you’ll note that none of these movies made my top 10, which is weird because last Oscars, five of them were in my top 10. But “The Substance” was really close at No. 11, so I’ll happily go for that.

In regards to my prediction, this were things have been wild this whole season. As I’ve mentioned before, I think half of these movies have been a front runner at some point this season. And I don’t want to get into the whole history of this season. That would take too long. But one thing led to many other things, and I think we’ve come down to “Anora” vs. “Conclave.” And I personally think that is because of the preferential ballot. You can Google to see exactly how that works. The short version is that voters rank the movies 1-10. A movie needs 50 percent of the vote to win. If that doesn’t happen on the first ballot, the last place movie gets eliminated and for anyone who had that as their No. 1, their second place movie becomes their new vote. And they do that until they have a majority. In which case, it’s not always the most loved movie that wins. It’s the least hated. If you have a lot of second, third, and fourth place votes, along with enough first place votes, that’s what’s going to help you get the win. And I do think “Anora” and “Conclave” are the two movies that had the least amount of controversy this year.

Which one wins? I say “Anora.” I would not be surprised to hear “Conclave.” But the reason I picked “Anora” is because it would at the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and the Critics Choice Awards. Movies that take home the DGA, PGA, and CCA have a great track record at the Oscars. “Conclave” won at the BAFTA, the British Academy Awards. That makes sense. “Conclave” is a British film and they love it. “Conclave” also won best ensemble at the SAGs (Screen Actor Guild Awards). That also makes sense. “Conclave” has a large ensemble. “Anora” has a small one. Some say “Conclave” has momentum. I say it’s wins make sense in context and won’t necessarily translate to Oscar. But my confidence level isn’t high. But it’s what I’m going for. So I say Sean Baker has a great night, finishing off with best picture, but I could see “Conclave.” I do think it’s one of those two, though. Any other narrative people say just doesn’t have any evidence or support behind it, but we’ll all find out here real soon and I’m excited to watch!