Monday, May 4, 2026

Movie Preview: May 2026

Welcome to the summer movie season! Sure, it’s technically still spring on the calendar. Schools have another month left and official summer isn’t until June, but in Hollywood the first weekend of May is when summer movie season begins! Usually the tradition is to start summer off with a big Marvel movie. And at one point on the schedule, that was the plan. But “Avengers: Doomsday” moved from May to December and there wasn’t any other superhero movie that came to take its place, so instead the summer kickoff will be “The Devil Wears Prada 2,” followed by “Mortal Kombat II” the weekend after. Because, you know, it wouldn’t be the summer movie season without a bunch of random sequels.

Box office wise, my initial impression is that 2026 might follow the trajectory of 2024 where May itself was a bit softer before things really got going in June and July. Having an Avengers-sized hole on the release schedule will do that to you. The biggest events of this summer are scheduled for a bit later on. That said, April provided the box office with a good kick-start thanks to the dominance of “Mario Galaxy” and “Michael,” the latter of which did much better than even the most generous of predictions had it at. “Project Hail Mary” from March has also continued its impressive run. And there are some decent prognostications from this current crop of May films that are on the docket, so the potential is certainly there! Let’s dive in and take a closer look.

As always, release date information from this post is courtesy of the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com. We do continue this ongoing saga of The Numbers’ site being under construction. They continue to promise on social media that all the features will be up again at some point, but right now it remains a bare-bones site, causing me to again double-check other sources. But they do have their release schedule up and active, so there’s at least that. Regarding said release schedule, the movies listed in this post are the ones currently scheduled for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are always subject to change.


May 1 – 3

20th Century Studios' "The Devil Wears Prada 2"

As mentioned in the intro, the summer kick-off movie is not a new Marvel movie or some sort of big superhero event, as often has been the tradition, but is rather The Devil Wears Prada 2. Is this a movie that needed a sequel or even had fans begging for one? Perhaps not. But I suppose that is personal preference. Regardless, it’s a movie that now has one. Marketing for the film has been pretty aggressive and the tracking and enthusiasm was pretty strong going into the weekend. The initial movie starred Anne Hathaway as recent graduate Andy Sachs, who lands a coveted assistant job at a high-powered fashion magazine, despite not knowing much about the industry. The movie opened to a modest $27.5 million back in 2006, but held very well and finished with $124.7 million domestically and $326.1 million worldwide. Now we’re 20 years later and the crew is back, including Anne Hathaway, Meryl Streep, Stanley Tucci, and Emily Blunt, and they’re ready for a new adventure. If I were doing a blind prognosis, I would’ve looked at that 2026 opening, considered 20 years of ticket price inflation, and noted that adjusts to about $50 million with 2026 ticket pricing. Considering that comedy legacy sequels are very hit and miss at the box office, a $30-50 million range would’ve seemed fair. But in this particular instance, the cultural zeitgeist has clearly been quite good to this one as it scored an opening weekend of $77 million. It was actually thought of as potentially getting $90-100 million going into the weekend, so it ended up on the low end of those expectations, but that final number is still nothing to scoff at.

There were four other movies that hit wide release this opening weekend of May, but most of them wound up much further down the list on the weekend charts. Opening with the highest theater count of the bunch was Angel Studios’ Animal Farm, which debuted in 2,600 theaters. “Animal Farm” dates all the way back to 1945 as a satirical allegorical dystopian novella from George Orwell. That’s a handful of fancy words there, but the story follows a bunch of mistreated anthropomorphic farm animals rebelling against the human owners, hoping to create a society where all animals can be free and equal. That idea gets hijacked, however, due to the dictatorship of the pigs, resulting in a dystopian state nearly identical to what it was before, thus the satirical allegory. It’s had a few various adaptations over the years, but this new animated version, which was directed by Andy Serkis and includes the voices of Seth Rogen, Gaten Matarazzo, Kieran Culkin, Glenn Close, Steven Buscemi, Woody Harrelson, Jim Parsons, and others, has been met with… confusion. A movie that doesn’t quite seem to understand the point of the source material, according to reviews. Currently it stands at a 24 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. The general range I’ve always put for Angel Studios releases is $3-5 million. Despite the poor reviews, I thought that maybe curiosity to be part of the conversation could ironically cause it to hit the over on that, but instead it hit that window exactly with a $3.3 million opening.

We’ve had a consistent stream of mid- to low-budget horror films this year – and really the last several years. The next movie in that line is Hokum, distributed by NEON into 1,850 theaters this weekend. This movie stars Adam Scott, of “Severance” fame, as a horror writer who visits an Irish inn to scatter his parents’ ashes, unaware the property is said to be haunted by a witch. Despite opening in less theaters than “Animal Farm,” this wound up a bit higher on the charts, winning the battle for fifth place with a $6.4 million total. Helping the movie out was a balance of healthy reviews from critics and audiences that currently stand in the 80 percent realm for both. The consensus from many is that it blends a classic haunted house story with atmospheric folklore and perfectly-timed shocks, while delivering a satisfying journey of self-discovery for the main character. A comparison to movies such as “We Bury the Dead,” “Psycho Killer,” “Forbidden Fruits,” or “Faces of Death,” which were other horror movies this year that opened in a similar theater count, suggested a potential opening in the $2-3 million range, but the positive word of mouth boosted it higher. It didn’t have the theater count necessary to match March’s “undertone” ($9.3 million) or April’s “The Mummy” ($13.5 million), but this is also a movie that is likely to stick around in the conversation following its theatrical release as more horror fans catch up with it.

The third movie that was in the running for that final spot in the top five going into the weekend was the new shark movie Deep Water. Because if you watch the new Netflix film “Thrash,” which premiered on April 10 and has done very good numbers, and you’ve decided that you want more sharks, “Deep Water” is your film. Instead of a city experiencing massive flooding from a hurricane, resulting in shark-infested streets (“Thrash”), “Deep Water” follows a group of international passengers on route from Los Angeles to Shanghai that have to make an emergency landing in shark-infested waters. The movie is headlined by Aaron Eckhart and Ben Kingsley, but it does have a diverse cast of passengers working together in the wreckage to survive the sharks. The movie is directed by Renny Harling, director of the recent reboot trilogy of “The Strangers.” That might pose a red flag to some hoping for a fun time, as those movies weren’t very well received. However, a sigh of relief can be had as early critics have given the movie a 75 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. Awareness, though, wasn’t quite as high as “Hokum,” which caused it to actually hit that $2-3 million range discussed there when looking at those other films, as “Deep Water” was released in 1,675 theaters. $2.2 million was the final total. Not much in terms of box office, but if it finds it way to Netflix at some point, people do love their shark films over there.

The wild card entry of the weekend came in form of a title that might come close to taking up this whole paragraph on its, and that is the anime film That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime the Movie: Tears of the Azure Sea. You can probably guess based on that title what this anime series is a bit. The titular character is named Satoru Mikami, a salaryman who is murdered and then reincarnated in a sword and sorcery world is a slime, who then goes onto gather allies to build its own nation of monsters. There’s been three seasons of the show so far, with a fourth season currently underway in Japan. This spin-off movie “Tears of the Azure Sea” was released in Japan on February 27 and acts as a bridge between the third and fourth seasons. This is the second spin-off movie from this series. “Scarlet Bond” was released in November 2022 and took place in between the second and third season. In regards to a financial comparison, “Scarlet Bond” opened in 1,473 theaters to $1.5 million. “Tears of the Azure Sea” only premiered in 837 theaters, but yet still managed to hit right around $1 million this weekend. Anime is fairly unpredictable and doesn’t always follow typical logic.


May 8 – 10

Warner Bros.' "Mortal Kombat II"

The next two weeks are when things could get a bit interesting in regards to the box office. The big release of this weekend is Mortal Kombat II, the sequel to the 2021 reboot. That movie had somewhat mixed reviews upon its release. A lot of the production value and over-the-top bloody action that was true to the game was praised. But it was a Mortal Kombat movie that didn’t really have a… Mortal Kombat. Not that plot and characters are what people are hoping for when they press play on a new Mortal Kombat movie, but the central tournament that is key to the whole game was promised for next after spending the movie setting the stage. Well, now next time is here… five years later. Perhaps this sequel will finally give what Mortal Kombat fans have been wanting. A big, bloody, over-the-top tournament to the death. Karl Urban as Johnny Cage is front and center after being teased at the end of the last movie. The movie will also include popular Mortal Kombat characters such as Scorpion, Sub-Zero, Liu Kang, Kitana, Raiden, Jax Briggs, Sonya Blade, Kung Lao, Shao Kahn, and plenty others. Its opening weekend at the box office might be a bit of a mystery. Box Office Pro in their long range forecast has it projected in the $45-55 million range, which would be double that of the 2021 movie, which opened to $23.3 million. However, that’s not a great comparison because April 2021 was very much in COVID recovery phase. It was only the third movie to even hit $20 million after theaters shut down. Warner Bros. also released every movie that year day-and-date on HBO Max, so that opening was pretty impressive, all things considered. Now it’ll get a real test with the sequel opening nationwide under much more normal circumstances.

Projected to open with a much more modest box office total is the family flick The Sheep Detectives. In this movie, Hugh Jackman plays a shepherd who is mysteriously found dead. His rather large flock of sheep that he read to every night put it upon themselves to go solve this mystery. This is based on the 2005 novel “Three Bags Full: A Sheep Detective Movie” by Leonie Swann. This is a movie that has the potential to be a solid bridge for family audiences as business from “Mario Galaxy” is slowing down and the next major family release isn’t until “Toy Story 5” on June 19. It comes from director Kyle Balda, who is one of the directors of “Minions” and it’s sequel, so he’s certainly part of the crew that has figured out how to make family audiences smile. Perhaps an even better hook here is that the movie itself has an early 94 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes from critics. And if the grumpy, old critics are being charmed by this silly sheep movie, then certainly its main target audience will be delighted if they choose to check it out. The current projections from Box Office Pro have it opening in the $10-15 million range. If word of mouth gets out early, I could see that pushing higher. If nothing else, this does seem like a movie that could have decent staying power, even if it doesn’t begin super high.

The third option of the weekend is to hang out with Billie Eilish in her new concert film, Billie Eilish: Hit Me Hard and Soft – The Tour Live in 3D. Billie’s “Hit Me Hard and Soft” tour was her seventh headlining concert tour, this one in support of her third studio album “Hit Me Hard and Soft.” The album was released on May 17, 2024 and the tour itself ran from September 29, 2024 to November 23, 2025. The tour had a total reported revenue of $226 million and a total attendance of 1.51 million over the course of 88 shows. This accompanying concert tour was filmed over the course of her four shows in Manchester from July 19-23. It was directed by Billie herself and co-directed by… wait for it… James Cameron. I suppose that makes the “Billie in 3D” part of this make sense. 3D filmmaking is his thing. And yes, when I say James Cameron, I do indeed mean the Avatar director. He’s spent the majority of the last 30 years working solely on various Avatar films, so this certainly seems like a random side excursion. But hey, we all need a break from our main thing at some point, right? Given the revenue of the tour itself, as well as the album being promoted, the box office of this concert film is likely irrelevant and just an extra bonus for her fans. But ever since Taylor Swift made $267 million globally with her Eras Tour concert film, it doesn’t hurt for other artists to give this a try.


May 15 – 17

Focus Features' "Obsession"

The third weekend of May has five new wide releases, so plenty of new options for people to see. However, in regards to big summer blockbuster affair, we’re taking a weekend off from that, which means “The Devil Wears Prada 2” and “Mortal Kombat II” get to fight it out for the top spot at the box office. In regards to our new films, there appears to be a trio of smaller films that should get the most attention, with a couple of wild cards added to the mix. In breaking down the trio first, I’ll start with the horror film Obession. Written and directed by Curry Barker, this is a horror film that explores the idea of being careful what you wish for. A music store employee named Bear comes across a mysterious “One Wish Willow,” which promises to grant him any wish he wants. He uses to wish that his childhood friend and crush Nikki will love him more than anyone else in the world. Given how this is a horror film, you can imagine how this premise could go horribly wrong as Bear quickly learns this was a bad idea and tries to get out of it, but learns that’s not really an option. This is a horror film that premiered last year at the Toronto International Film Festival and has made its rounds to plenty other film festivals, including South by Southwest in March and has built up quite the buzz from that. Currently it stands at a 96 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s also had a fairly effective marketing campaign with its trailers that has gotten a fair amount of attention. Current projection from Box Office Pro has it opening in the $7-10 million range.

Next up is the latest action film from director Guy Ritchie, In the Grey. This movie follows a covert team of elite operatives living in the shadows. When a ruthless despot steals a billion-dollar fortune, this team gets sent on a mission to steal it back. What seems like an impossible heist leads to a deadly game of strategy, deception, and survival, all of which feel like trademarks of a Guy Ritchie action heist film like this. Ritchie has been very busy as of late, working on TV shows such as “MobLand,” “The Gentlemen,” and “Young Sherlock,” releasing the movie “Fountain of Youth” to Apple TV+, and having three theatrically released films in 2023-2024, “Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre,” “The Covenant,” and “The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare.” The opening weekends for those three films totaled $3.1 million, $6.4 million, and $8.9 million, respectively, so that’s likely the appropriate range for a new Guy Ritchie film. Cast-wise, he does have some returning favorites, which includes Jake Gyllenhaal (“The Covenant”), Henry Cavill (“The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare”) and Eiza González (“Fountain of Youth” and “The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare”).

The third movie in this weekend’s trio of smaller films sees Amazon MGM releasing Is God Is, which might be a slightly more niche appeal compared to the other two. This sees playwright Aleshea Harris adapting her own play into a feature film. Other plays she’s done include “What to Send Up When it Goes Down” and “On Sugarland.” In regards to “Is God Is,” it was an Off-Broadway production that opened in February 2018 at Soho Rep in New York City. The play was well received and won 3 Obie Awards (Off-Broadway Theater Awards). The story here revolves around two sisters who are charged by their mother (referred to as “SHE” or “God”) to find and kill their father (referred to as the “Man” or the “Monster”), revealing to them that he was the one that lit the fire that burned all of them, leaving them severely scarred. So the two sisters are off on a tale of revenge. Vivica A. Fox plays the mother, Kara Young and Mallori Johnson play the two sisters, while Sterling K. Brown plays the father and Janelle Monáe plays his new wife. While Aleshea Harris has plenty of experience as a playwright, this will be her first venture into film as writer, director, and producer of the movie. The expected opening from Box Office Pro is in the $3-5 million range.

The first of the two wild card films of the weekend is the teen road trip comedy Driver’s Ed. This comedy follows a high school senior who steals the car of his driver’s ed teacher in order to track down his college freshman girlfriend. Joining him on this adventure are three of his other teenage friends. Some have noted the comparison to the 2000 comedy “Road Trip,” which similarly saw a young male protagonist enlisting three of his friends to go on a long road trip to track down his girlfriend. “Road Trip” for Gen Z, essentially, but much more tame… despite the same MPAA rating. Kumail Nanjiani plays the driver’s ed teacher and Molly Shannon plays the principal, so it does have some name recognition, even though the main group of kids are largely lesser known. The biggest potential draw is that it is directed by Bobby Farrelly, one of the Farrelly Brothers duo who directed hit comedies such as “Dumb and Dumber,” “There’s Something About Mary,” and “Shallow Hal.” The last movie they directed together was the sequel “Dumber and Dumber To” in 2014. Since then, Peter Farrelly wrote and directed the best picture winning drama “Green Book.” To much lesser success, he also directed “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” and “Ricky Stanicky,” while Bobby has directed “Champions” and “Dear Santa.” Distributor Vertical Entertainment had the best success this year with Luc Besson’s “Dracula,” which opened to $4.4 million, although they also opened “Desert Warrior” in April in 1,010 theaters to just $487,848. “Driver’s Ed” premiered at Toronto International Film Festival last year to mixed reviews at best and doesn’t seem to have much traction with its marketing as the official trailer has less than 10,000 views, so I personally wouldn’t bet too high on this one.

The other wild card film of the weekend is another anime, this being Mobile Suit Gundam Hathaway: The Sorcery of Nymph Circle. The Gundam franchise dates all the way back to 1979 with the TV series “Mobile Suit Gundam,” which premiered on April 7, 1979. The franchise was very much a staple for young kids who grew up in the 80s and 90s, and enjoyed watching Saturday morning cartoons. The original series ran for 43 episodes and has since spawned a franchise with a staggering number of various films and TV shows, with a current count of well over 50. If my count is right from Wikipedia, the total number of episodes from all the TV shows is 947 and counting, with 36 different movies on top of that. If that list isn’t fully accurate or my count was off, the short and easy answer is that there’s been… a lot. “Mobile Gundam Suit: Hathaway” was the first of its own planned trilogy that was released in Japan in 2021 and made 2.23 billion yen, which is the U.S. dollars equivalent of about $15 million. “The Sorcery of Nymph Circle” is the second film in the planned trilogy. The first movie didn’t receive a theatrical release in the United States, from what I can tell, so there’s not that to directly compare to, but as part of a different Gundam series, “Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX -Beginning-” did. That opened to $882,471 from 784 theaters. But as I said earlier in this post, anime can be hard to predict.


May 22 – 25

Disney's "The Mandalorian & Grogu"

With May 31 landing on a Sunday this year, that means that Memorial Day this year is the earliest it can possibly be – May 25. That means Memorial Day Weekend is the second to last weekend in May instead of the final one. And to celebrate the holiday, we have a Star Wars film hitting theaters, The Mandalorian & Grogu. This marks the first theatrically released Star Wars film since “The Rise of Skywalker” back in 2019. No, Lucasfilm hasn’t taken a break. They’ve just focused on all their TV stuff while they figure out what to do in the movie realm. “The Mandalorian,” of course, began as a Disney+ series, and ran for three seasons. After the constant tumultuous debate surrounding the sequel trilogy, “The Mandalorian” initially was the Star Wars show that brought everyone together. However, after two very successful seasons, they reversed the ending of Season 2 in a separate series, “The Book of Boba Fett,” which led to a bit of confusion for casual fans for Season 3. Hardcore fans weren’t exactly pleased with the third season, either, which brought all Star Wars fans back to their natural state – anger and hatred towards this franchise that they claim to love. It’s nearly impossible to please a Star Wars fan these days. The story here is Season 4 was initially planned. Jon Favreau says all the scripts for the season have been written. But with delayed production amidst the 2023 labor disputes, Lucasfilm as a whole decided to pivot away from a fourth season and focus on a movie with the characters instead. Favreau has said that the fourth season was centered around Grand Admiral Thrawn, which would then lead into the second season of “Ahsoka.” With the pivot to the movie instead, things had to be re-written, essentially making this movie its own thing without necessarily having the requirement of being caught up on the series. Instead, we have an adventure with Din Djarin and Grogu who are enlisted by the New Republic to rescue Rotta the Hutt, son of Jabba the Hutt, who initially showed up in “The Clone Wars” series.

In regards to the box office for “The Mandalorian & Grogu,” that seems to be up in the air a bit, as enthusiasm for the movie isn’t where it often is for a new Star Wars movie. Given that this is basically a spin-off to the series, it’s possible that some will choose not to pay for a movie ticket when they’re used to watching “The Mandalorian” at home with their Disney+ subscription. But yet, this is still Star Wars. Despite the constant anger and rage, Star Wars fans often show up for a new Star Wars anyway. Box Office Pro’s early projections still have this opening in the $90-100 million range for the 3-day weekend. There has been some buzz that this could wind up as the lowest opening weekend for a Star Wars movie in the Disney era. That mark currently is “Solo,” which opened on Labor Day Weekend in 2018, earning $84.4 million over the 3-day weekend and $103 million over the 4-day weekend. Even though that was far below the main saga films, those were still some pretty good numbers for an overall summer blockbuster. “Solo” was only seen as a massive failure because it had a budget of over $300 million. The reported budget for “The Mandalorian & Grogu” is just $165 million, so it doesn’t need to be a huge billion dollar film to be profitable for Disney and Lucasfilm. If it hits way low at $50-60 million, then there might be some cause for concern, but if it winds up near “Solo,” then it should be just fine.

While Star Wars is certainly the main event of the weekend, it’s not the only release. There’s three other smaller films being released as either an alternative or if another movie adventure is desired. The first of those is the horror film Passenger, which continues the trend I’ve talked about in regards to the constant stream of low-budget horror films being released. In May alone, we’ll have already had “Hokum,” “Obsession” and now “Passenger” to keep horror fans happy. This movie is about a young couple who witness a horrific accident a few weeks into their van life adventure that left the driver dead. And now because of that, they have an unwanted passenger joining them in the form of a demonic stalker that’s impossible to outrun and follows them wherever they go. “Last year over 130 million people took road trips,” the trailer claims. “15,400 of them were never seen again.” Actual fact or heavily manipulated for dramatic effect? Probably the latter. But it makes for an effective hook for a road trip horror film. This is directed by André Øvredal, who has directed other horror films such as “Troll Hunter,” “The Autopsy of Jane Doe,” and “Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark.” His last film, “The Last Voyage of the Demeter” in 2023, opened to $6.5 million. A similar opening would put this in the same range as “Hokum” and “Obsession.”

Boots Riley is back with this next film of the weekend, the crime comedy I Love Boosters. Boots Riley is the writer and director of the rather bizarre, mind-bending film “Sorry to Bother You” from 2018, which did indeed include a plot where people were being turned into half human, half horse creatures they called Equisapiens. Is this movie going to be as strange as that one? To be determined, I suppose. But the movie is about a group of professional shoplifters, led by Keke Palmer, who take aim at a fashion maven played by Demi Moore. The goal is to steal her stuff, then turn around a re-sell it at a discount price. The trailer seems to promise another upbeat, wild, fun ride. And given the last film, there’s likely plenty of surprises in store. In addition to Keke Palmer and Demi Moore, the movie also includes Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, and Don Cheadle. The movie premiered at the South by Southwest film festival in March, and has a current 94 percent critics score with 34 reviews counted. Boots Riley has also been doing his best job to push and promote the film, which should help boost awareness. “Sorry to Bother You” in its first weekend of wide release earned $4.2 million and held well to eventually finish with $17.5 million domestically. That would be a good goal for this movie, although it has been eight years since then.

The final film of the weekend appears to be on the smaller end of the bunch, but it is actually another horror film, that being Corporate Retreat. This is a movie about a group of corporate executives that attend a highly recommended corporate retreat that, unfortunately for them, turns into a violent and bloody trap. The trailer does have a good number of views, over 6 million, even though almost every comment is in regard to Tiktok influencer Kirby Johnson being in the movie. The red flag for me personally in regards to box office potential is that it is listed as being distributed by Western Film Services, which is a studio that doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page for me to see what else they’ve done, if anything. That combined with a mostly lesser known cast and a director in Aaron Fisher whose only previous feature-length film made just $8,140 from one theater (“Inside the Rain”) and this seems like a film that will be more of a blip on the radar for most people, unless the premise itself captures the attention of some horror fans.


May 29 – 31

A24's "Backrooms"

The post Memorial Day Weekend is poised to be another cool-down weekend before June kicks things into high gear and doesn’t let up until the summer ends. That means catch-up week for some, with whatever gas is left in the tank for the May blockbusters we’ve listed. For the new releases? Sure! Why, not? How about another May horror film! We’ll finish this off with A24 delivering the movie Backrooms, which could easily wind up as the biggest horror release of the month. The general premise is that a therapist’s patient disappears into a dimension beyond reality, causing her to venture into the unknown to save him. The movie is led by recently Oscar nominated actress Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”) as the therapist, with Chiwetel Ejiofor as the patient she’s hunting down. That premise and cast on its own, with the A24 prestige, might be enough to attract general horror fans to again show up to the theaters. However, this movie is written and directed by Kane Parsons, and is based on his own YouTube web series also called “Backrooms,” which began as a short film released on his channel (Kane Pixels) in 2022 that currently, as I’m typing this, has 77 million views. That evolved into the web series that is now 23 episodes. We learned earlier this year not to underestimate YouTubers making movies as Markiplier wrote, directed, starred in, and did everything for his adaptation of “Iron Lung,” which then debuted to $18.2 million. I’m also reminded of the 2016 film “Lights Out,” which saw David F. Sandberg adapting his own short film into a feature-length film, which opened to $21.7 million. I don’t have official tracking estimates from Box Office Pro just yet, but I imagine the tracking should be pretty good. The trailer views on its own is current at 27 million.

Playing counter to this mysterious, found footage horror film is the family comedy The Breadwinner. This stars stand-up comedian Nate Bargatze in his first feature acting role. He’s likely most well known for his Saturday Night Live sketches where he appears as George Washington and mocks the American English language and measurement systems, but he’s also had a series of Netflix stand-up specials that have boosted his stand-up comedy career. He also recently hosted the Emmys last year. This first feature film of his sees him playing a dad who has to learn how to be a stay-at-home dad after his wife lands a huge deal on Shark Tank, sending her on a prolonged business trip. Turns out Nate learns how awesome his wife is as she was perfect at managing all the chaos at home with their three kids, which he learns that he’s very not good at, leading to a lot of slapstick comedy as he tries to figure this out. I mentioned family comedy at the beginning when describing this. While perhaps not necessarily directed at a young audience specifically, the movie is PG, so it’s appropriate for all ages. It was supposed to initially come out in March, but was postponed to a summer release date here. While Nate has certainly made his way in the stand-up comedy realm, this will certainly be a test to see if he can draw a crowd to the theater. Comedies are very hit and miss at the box office these days, so it’s easier said than done.

Rounding out the month will be the war drama Pressure. This stars Andrew Scott as Captain James Stagg and Brendan Fraser as Dwight D. Eisenhower and chronicles the 72 hours before D-Day. In real life history, Eisenhower had tentatively scheduled June 5 as the date of the D-Day invasion. However, on June 3, a severe storm was forecast to be approaching Europe, which led Stagg to meet with Eisenhower to discuss. Stagg convinced Eisenhower to proceed with the attack on June 6, predicting that the storm would pass by then. The next available dates with the proper tidal conditions would’ve been two weeks later from June 18-20, but postponing would’ve increased the chance that the invasion plans would be detected. Historical spoiler alert… D-Day did in fact happen on June 6. As it turned out, a major storm battered the Normandy coast from June 19-22, which would have made the beach landings impossible. This movie adaptation of these events is directed by Anthony Maras, who directed “Hotel Mumbai,” a movie that opened to $3.2 million in March 2019. In regards to recent war films, the best comparison I can come up with is last year’s “Nuremberg,” which opened to $3.9 million and made $14.5 million domestically. It’s currently available to be watched on Netflix. World War II junkies can check that one out or head out to theaters to see “Pressure,” which will have the anniversary of D-Day take place during its second weekend.

Saturday, April 4, 2026

Movie Preview: April 2026

Welcome to spring, everyone! We have a galaxy sized movie to talk about at the April box office that’s already had a head start prior to the month’s first weekend, but will there be anything else worth seeing that will capture people’s attention in what’s normally a quiet month?

Even though summer doesn’t technically arrive until June, the tradition in the movie world is that the summer movie season begins when May arrives, which more often than not makes April the calm before the storm. It can be risky to schedule something major in April when it is likely going to get swept away or buried when the big summer blockbusters hit. This May might be a little different than what has been normal, given that “Avengers: Doomsday” was slated to open on May 1, but got delayed to December. After that change, nothing really came to take its spot. I could be wrong, but “The Devil Wears Prada 2” doesn’t seem like something that will do Avengers numbers at the box office, but more about that next month. For this month that does mean these releases will have a little more runway than what’s normal, which might be especially helpful for the King of Pop at the end of the month.

As teased in the beginning of this post, though, Mario is already off running. Is there anything that can stop it or will Mario pull the clean sweep on the month? That movie’s incoming domination is doing a great job of picking up where March left off. At a domestic total of $625.3 million, this past March didn’t come anywhere near pre-pandemic levels, the record of which is still held by March 2017 with $1.171 billion earned. This March also failed to match the $749.4 million of 2024 where “Dune: Part Two” ruled supreme, but it was up 57.2 percent from March 2025. That might be more of an indictment on how bad that March was, but the likes of “Project Hail Mary” and Pixar’s “Hoppers” did provide some much needed life to the box office as both earned over $140 million domestically in March alone. Mario is now set to feed off that and continue the 2026 momentum upwards. So let’s now dive deep into Mario and what it’s challengers will be as we move forward through April.

Last month in my round-up of mentioned sources, I noted that my main source for release date information, the-numbers.com, was down when I was typing up my post. As it turns out, they were busy rebuilding their whole site, a project for them that is not yet complete. But they do have their release schedule up, so I’ll be back to using that for the release date information for this post, while also using the likes of Box Office Pro, Box Office Mojo, and IMDb for other research purposes. With that noted, my main focus is on the movies scheduled for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are always subject to change.


April 3 – 5

Universal's "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie"

As referenced a few times in the intro, the movie of the month for April is The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, and it had a head start on the weekend already by opening on Wednesday, April 1. This is a follow-up to the 2023 smash hit “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” which broke out in a phenomenal way for Universal and Nintendo by earning a total of $1.359 billion worldwide, with $574.9 million of that coming domestically. And it wasn’t just a huge theatrical hit, but it’s also had a very long and successful life on streaming via both Netflix and Peacock. A smash hit like that pretty much guarantees the sequel to be a success, regardless of quality. And it’s not even worth looking at what the critics score has been because this is the exact type of movie that is very critic-proof. Feeding off the success of the first movie, this franchise has jumped straight into adapting the “Super Mario Galaxy” games, perhaps a more Gen Z friendly approach, with a central premise of Bowser Jr. kidnapping Princess Rosalina, forcing Mario, Luigi, and Peach to embark on a mission to go save her. Lest anyone be disappointed that they skipped about 30 years worth of games, the movie made sure to provide nods or references to just about every one of those games in its chaotic, high-energy plot, while also providing Easter Eggs to many other Super Smash Bros. characters that aren’t even necessarily Mario related.

In regards to the movie’s box office, this will be an easy one to track. The 2023 movie had the literal exact same release strategy, opening on a Wednesday prior to the first weekend of April. And through two days of official results, that movie made $58.3 million on that first Wednesday and Thursday. Comparatively, “Mario Galaxy” has made a nearly identical $59.1 million on Wednesday and Thursday. While it’s possible that “Mario Galaxy” winds up a bit more frontloaded, the comparison nonetheless is that “Mario Bros.” made $146.4 over its traditional 3-day weekend, for a 5-day opening total of $204.6 million. The likely outcome based on numbers so far is that “Mario Galaxy” comes very close to matching that, but at the very least, this is guaranteed to be the first $100 million opening weekend of 2026.

While this weekend’s other major release will not come remotely close to challenging “Mario Galaxy,” A24’s The Drama will be hitting 3,087 theaters this weekend and will thus aim for a spot somewhere in the top five with “Project Hail Mary” and “Hoppers” – March’s holdover releases. The biggest draw for this movie is its two lead stars, Robert Pattinson and Zendaya, who play a happily engaged couple about to get married. While on the surface this more or less has the appearance of a romantic comedy, and while that may not necessarily be inaccurate, the plot revolves around an unexpected twist that happens during the week of the wedding. A confession that sends the wedding off the rails. As one critic put it, the movie becomes less about the wedding and less about the confession, and more about what type of secrets we can reveal to those closest to us. The movie has had generally favorable reactions, currently holding a 79 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes, although there has been plenty of mixed reaction – centered mainly around the movie’s said surprise twist. Word of mouth will be curious to watch because of this, especially if certain moviegoers aren’t fully aware of what they’re getting themselves into, which is often typical of an A24 release. The expected box office is in the $10-15 million range, which would slot it into third place.

The final wide release of the weekend sends us back to our country’s origins with the movie A Great Awakening, which centers around the friendship between Benjamin Franklin and Reverend George Whitefield. A man of reason and a man of faith coming together to form an unlikely friendship that helped shape this country prior to the American Revolution. Of note, this is Easter weekend that we’re heading into. Neither February nor March, leading up to Easter, provided any major faith-based release for Christian audiences, so this seems like it has the potential to fill that gap. It’s not a super wide release, so breakout potential is limited, but it is still being released in 1,289 theaters, which is enough to make some sort of mark if it connects with its target audience. Anywhere from $3-5 million would likely be enough to slip into fifth place at the box office. Last weekend’s third place movie made $4.9 million, so beyond the heavy hitters the rest of the market is quiet enough for it to fit in.


April 10 – 12

Universal's "You, Me & Tuscany"

Before we dive into new releases each weekend, let’s play a quick game of where “Mario Galaxy” could end up. Again, the easy comparison is to look directly at the 2023 predecessor. In which case, “Mario Bros.” dropped just 37 percent in Weekend 2 to make $92.3 million. However, in case “Mario Galaxy” ends up being more frontloaded, which would be normal for a sequel, I’ll also look at last April’s “A Minecraft Movie.” That celebrated an opening weekend of $162.8 million, but then had a slightly steeper drop in Weekend 2, falling 52 percent. If “Mario Galaxy” falls a similar 52 percent, which is still a great hold for a movie opening above $100 million, that would lead to a second weekend of $70.3 million.

Either way, there’s three new releases this weekend, and none of them are likely to hit $70 million in their entire run, let alone in one weekend, so it’s a battle for positioning in the top 10 rather than a race for No. 1. The leader of that trio will be what looks like a more traditional romantic comedy and that is You, Me & Tuscany. Starring Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page, the movie is about a young lady named Anna (Bailey) who makes a brash decision to fly to Tuscany to visit an abandoned villa of a rich man she just met. When she gets discovered by his family, she pretends to be his fiancée so she doesn’t get in trouble. That’s the context where she meets the man’s cousin Michael (Page) and starts to actually fall in love with him. Because there wouldn’t be a rom-com without a fun bit of twisted lies and deceptions, right? “Sometimes the wrong place is right where you need to be,” the trailer declares. $8-12 million is the range where Box Office Pro has this one, although the high end might be similar to last month’s romance film “Reminders of Him,” which opened to $17.9 million. That one was based on a novel, this one is not. But this one does have a more recognizable lead couple, so that could perhaps make up the difference.

The other two movies are a pair of horror films that are just happy to be here. The first that I’ll bring up is Faces of Death, which is sort of a remake of the original 1978 horror film “Faces of Death.” That movie presented itself as an actual documentary centering around a pathologist who presents the viewer with footage showing different gruesome ways of dying. Most of the footage was faked for the film, but some included pre-existing footage of real deaths. It was initially received with negative reviews, but gained a cult following afterwards and spawned several sequels. This 2026 movie stars Barbie Ferreira as a woman who moderates a YouTube-like platform, responsible for filtering out offensive or violent content. In the process of this, she discovers a group that appears to be re-enacting the murders from the original “Faces of Death” movie. This is a co-production from IFC Entertainment and Shudder, who have formed a strong partnership as of late. IFC takes care of the theatrical release prior to it eventually showing up on the Shudder streaming service. There’s already been four such instances of this in 2026 and so far the biggest theatrical earner this year was “Forbidden Fruits” from March, which opened to $1.2 million from 1,525 theaters. The other three had an opening weekend range of $140,000 to $700,000. These are low budget horror films, so a decent theatrical run is nice, but not required. “Faces of Death” will premiere at Beyond Fest on April 5 prior to its wide theatrical release this weekend.

The other horror film coming out this weekend is the Canadian horror film Hunting Matthew Nichols. The movie was written, directed, and stars Markian Tarasiuk as… himself. The movie is shot at least partially mockumentary or found footage style and is about a girl named Tara Nichols whose brother Matthew went missing 23 years prior. Tarasiuk plays a documentary filmmaker who sets out to help her finally solve the case. Tarasiuk says that he was inspired by Netflix true crime documentaries and made this film as a satire to some degree around the world involving forest creatures. He also mentioned he was inspired by “The Blair Witch Project” and “The Ring.” The movie was shot over several weeks in December on Vancouver Island to capture a gray, rainy, sense of dread. This was actually initially released back in October 2024 at the Newport Beach Film Festival. It has bounced around to a few other festivals since then before finally getting a wide release this weekend. Reaction from festivals appears mixed to negative, although it only has three official reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and those are all positive. Not glowing reviews, but not rotten splatters, either. Matthew Monagle of Certified Forgotten writes, “There are worse things to be than a film that wears its admiration for ‘The Blair Witch Project’ on its sleeve” in his 3/5 review posted a few days ago.


April 17 – 19

Warner Bros.' "The Mummy"

Continuing the “Mario Galaxy” game here, the pathway of it following the original movie’s trajectory would result in a Weekend 3 total of $59.9 million. That’s the number “Mario Bros.” made in its third weekend in 2023, after falling a mild 35 percent. The contrast of a steeper fall again involves a look at “A Minecraft Movie,” which fell 48 percent in its third weekend. That path would leave “Mario Galaxy” at $36.5 million.

If the result is the steeper route, that’s not a completely unrealistic mark for this weekend’s major new release, Lee Cronin’s The Mummy. This comes via Warner Bros., who had an excellent horror year last year. On this exact weekend last year, they released “Sinners,” which opened to $48 million. Then in August they launched “Weapons” to $43.5 million. I highly doubt Lee Cronin’s new re-imagining of The Mummy franchise will hit in that stratosphere, but in terms of a horror movie from Warner Bros., I’m simply stating what’s in the realm of possibilities. A more apt comparison would be to what this movie actually is, the latest in a series of modern takes on classic monster franchises, like 2020’s “The Invisible Man” and last year’s “Wolf Man.” Lee Cronin’s vision here involves the young daughter of a journalist being found after going missing for eight years, but the reunion is not exactly pleasant as the trailer hints that she was found in a 3,000 year old mummy tomb and has transformed into quite the creepy horror villain that reminds one of Lee Cronin’s most recent film, “Evil Dead Rise.” That movie also opened in the third weekend of April, in 2023, to $24.5 million. Looking at our other mentioned monster movies, the high comparison would be “The Invisible Man,” which opened to $28.2 million. However, “Wolf Man” provides the low end of the spectrum as that opened to just $10.9 million. Box Office Pro is currently projecting this in the range of $12-20 million, so they are right in between that potential range.

Three additional mid to small budgeted movies will be added the market this weekend. Of those three, the first I’ll bring up is Normal, the latest action movie starring Bob Odenkirk. In this movie, Odenkirk plays a sheriff who takes a job as a substitute sheriff in a small, unassuming town called Normal, Minnesota. The goal is to escape and relax a bit from the personal and professional turmoil. What could go wrong in this little town? As one might expect going into the movie, there’s a bit of situational irony here as this town called “Normal” winds up being anything but normal as a botched bank robbery exposes a dangerous secret beneath the town’s calm exterior that Odenkirk now gets dragged into the middle of as the new sheriff. The easy comparison here is to Odenkirk’s recent movie “Nobody” that also deals with subverted expectations of a suburban dad being a secret assassin. “Nobody” opened to $6.8 million in March 2021, while its sequel, “Nobody 2,” opened to $9.2 million last summer. That also seems like a fair range for this outing.

I have a bit of conflicting information for this next one in regards to release strategy, but at some point this month the psychological thriller Mother Mary will be available for audiences to watch. For clarification, the release date is April 17. The question is, is it limited or wide on the 17th? One source says it’s wide, the other says it’s limited on the 17th and expands wide on the 24th. And if the latter is accurate, then how wide will the expansion be? Regardless of that, the movie surrounds the very scarred relationship between a pop star named Mother Mary (Anne Hathaway) and her former best friend and costume designer (Michaela Coel). On the eve of her big comeback, Mary comes to her former friend in need of a dress. Based on the trailer, things look like they get very dark and twisted after that. The movie is directed by David Lowery, who, in between his Disney movies (“Pete’s Dragon,” “Peter Pan & Wendy”), is very good at going dark and twisted with his ideas (“A Ghost Story,” “The Green Knight”). These usually land in a very polarized way with audiences, which is also par for the course for distributor A24. This is not a ghost story or a love story, they say in the trailer. This is a prayer, a song, a dress, a communion, a betrayal, a sacrifice, a rebirth. Whatever all that means, they also note that there’s new music written by Jack Antonoff, Charli XCX, and FKA Twigs. It seems like audiences that choose to take a chance on this one are in for quite the wild ride, for better or for worse.

The final movie that I’ll bring up for this weekend is a smaller movie out of the Toronto International Film Festival last year, and that is Wasteman. This movie is a British prison drama starring David Jonsson and Tom Blythe. It follows a man named Taylor (Jonsson) who has kept himself out of trouble in prison and thus hopes to get himself eligible for early parole, when he forms a bond with a fellow prisoner named Dee (Blythe). When a vicious attack takes place, it forces Taylor to have to choose between protecting Dee and keeping his own parole chances alive. The movie had its release in its home country of the U.K. back in February, after the aforementioned festival premiere in September, so American audiences are getting it late. But the reaction thus far has been very strong. There’s been 23 reviews counted on Rotten Tomatoes and all of them are positive. The buzzy festival releases don’t always translate to mainstream interest, especially when dumped in the middle of April, but this is one for cinephiles to take note of and add to their watch list, because those who have up to this point have been rewarded.


April 24 – 26

Lionsgate's "Michael"

The final weekend in April will be the bookend to the “Mario Galaxy” comparison. As outlined in previous sections, it seems likely to three-peat at No. 1, with no realistic challengers. But can it pull a full sweep of April? Using the same comparisons, if it holds as well as its predecessor, “Mario Bros.” fell another mild 32 percent in its fourth weekend, earning $40.8 million. In regards to the potential steeper decline, “A Minecraft Movie” fell 44 percent in its fourth weekend. That route would lead “Mario Galaxy” to a $20.5 million total.

Regardless of which route “Mario Galaxy” takes, this weekend does provide a very strong challenger that I also briefly referred to in the intro, and that’s the musical biopic Michael. These musical biopics have arrived in a very fast and furious way over the last several years. As long as audiences are happy with them and continue to show up, Hollywood is going to continue to say, “OK, who’s next?” The answer for that question in April 2026 is the King of Pop himself, Michael Jackson. A logical choice on the surface as Michael Jackson was one of the most popular singers ever. And they’ve tapped his own nephew, Jaafar Jackson, to play Michael, which adds a certain level of authenticity. The tricky thing with this particular movie is that there’s a massive elephant in the room. Michael Jackson in his later years was a very controversial figure. There’s two different parties of people when it comes to that conversation: the people who want nothing to do with Michael because they’re certain he’s guilty and the people who continue to claim it’s all a very cruel witch hunt. Is the movie going to address any of that? Probably not. Is that an issue? Depends on which party you’re a part of. Michael’s own daughter Paris recently posted on Instagram that the movie is a sugar-coated fantasy land full of inaccuracies and lies. She claims the filmmakers ignored the notes she submitted. “The film panders to a very specific section of my Dad’s fandom that still lives in the fantasy and they’re going to be happy with it,” she added.

Some might be upset at me for bringing this all up in introducing the movie. For what it’s worth, I’m not taking a stance in this post, but the journalist in me feels like this is a necessary thing to mention. I’ll let you make of it what you will. What does this all mean in regards to the box office? Well, like Paris said, regardless of facts or fiction, the audience that the movie panders to will be very happy. That means money and tickets purchased. It’s also worth noting that not all of these musical biopics have succeeded. Bruce Springsteen, Aretha Franklin, and Whitney Houston were all subjects of musical biopics that flopped. But the popularity of Michael seems like it will put it more in line with “Elvis” and “Bohemian Rhapsody” that were huge hits. “Elvis” opened to $31.2 million and went onto make $151.4 million domestically, while “Bohemian Rhapsody” opened to a massive $51.1 million and also held very well, finishing with $216.3 million. An opening in that $30-50 million range should be enough to topple “Mario Galaxy,” but it could be close. Box Office Pro actually predicts $60-75 million for “Michael,” which I think is a bit high, but they’re the experts, so I feel it’s important to point out.

Moving on from “Michael,” there’s three smaller films to bring up from this weekend. The first is the action comedy Over Your Dead Body. This is a movie about a couple who go on a vacation to try to reconnect, only to figure out they both have plans to kill each other, which puts a mild damper on things. It’s actually an English-language remake of the 2021 Norwegian film “The Trip.” In that movie, the couple’s murderous plans go awry when three fugitives take them captive. I’m not sure exactly what direction this remake decides to take things, but the trailer does suggest that there’s more going on beyond just the two of them. The remake stars Jason Segal and Samara Weaving as our main couple, but also includes Timothy Olyphant and Juliette Lewis in supporting roles. This is another movie distributed by IFC Entertainment, which I talked about briefly in Weekend 2 when going over “Faces of Death.” IFC and Shudder have a strong partnership where IFC takes care of the theatrical, while Shudder then later gets it on their streaming service. While there’s been four of those already this year, with “Faces of Death” being the fifth, “Over Your Dead Body” is not a horror and doesn’t appear to have Shudder involved, so it looks like it’s just IFC on their own. Shudder or not, though, the highest opening IFC release of 2026 is “Forbidden Fruits” at $1.2 million. “Over Your Dead Body” does have the higher trailer count than “Faces of Death,” and the popularity of Samara Weaving, who just barely opened “Ready or Not 2” in March, but it’s not a horror film and doesn’t have the franchise connection, so it’s a toss-up as to which IFC movie in April will perform the best.

Next up is the crime thriller heist film Fuze, which is about a WWII bomb that gets discovered on a busy construction site in the center of London. Based on the trailer, this appears to be “the ultimate distraction” to set up the perfect heist. The movie parallels the Weekend 3 movie I talked about, “Wasteland,” in that it is also a British film that had its premiere at last year’s Toronto International Film Festival. The reviews aren’t a perfect 23 for 23 like that movie, but it still stands at an 80 percent Rotten Tomatoes score out of 35 reviews counted, so definitely not bad, even if not quite as hyped. The movie is directed by David Mackenzie, who is best known for directing the 2016 film “Hell or High Water,” and stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Theo James, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, and Sam Worthington. Like “Wasteland,” this is not likely to be a big box office player here in the States and will have already had its U.K. release prior to its U.S. release, but it still provides a late April action thriller for anyone who wants to give that a roll.

 The final wide release of this weekend, and thus final movie discussed in this preview, takes us back to seventh century Arabia with the movie Desert Warrior. The movie is led by Anthony Mackie, but also includes Aiysha Hart, Sharlto Copley, and Ben Kingsley. The story sees an Arabian Princess team up with a bandit to confront a ruthless emperor who wanted her to be his concubine. The movie is being distributed by Vertical Entertainment, whose two wide releases from 2026 include “We Bury the Dead” and Luc Besson’s “Dracula,” which opened to $2.5 million and $4.4 million respectively, which thus felt like fair comparisons if this does indeed hit a full wide release. That was going to be it for this movie, but then I stumbled into the fact that this was the most expensive film to be produced in Saudia Arabia, as it shot there from late 2021 into early 2022. Said budget of the film is reported to be $150 million, which blew my mind when I read that, given that a $2-4 million domestic opening seemed to be the realistic scenario. I’m not sure what the full story of this movie’s production is, but it seems like quite the intense one and I have no idea how they plan to make that money back.

Sunday, March 15, 2026

The 98th Academy Awards: Predictions

It’s the unstoppable force going head to head against the immovable object in this weekend’s 98th Academy Awards! Before 2025 even began, awards prognosticators looked at the fact that Paul Thomas Anderson had a movie coming out towards the end of the year and wondered if this is finally the time that he gets his Oscar. The well-loved director got his first nomination way back in 1998 with “Boogie Nights.” Despite that and other highly acclaimed films such as “Magnolia,” “Punch-Drunk Love,” “There Will Be Blood,” and “The Master,” Anderson has not yet been awarded a gold trophy, despite now 14 nominations (3 of those from this season). When “One Battle After Another” came out to rave reviews, many considered it a done deal. Like Christopher Nolan and Sean Baker in the two years prior, it just seemed like destiny that Paul Thomas Anderson was finally getting coronated.

But then there was “Sinners.” A massive hit from earlier in the year that continued to build momentum as the year went on. An absolute sensation on many different fronts that felt like the actual movie of the year from mainstream audiences. But was it an awards player? A vampire horror musical in years past would most certainly be completely ignored by the Academy. But this is not the old Academy. It’s a new Academy that has recently allowed movies like “Parasite” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” to come in, dominate, and ultimately win best picture. Neither of those would’ve come anywhere close to voters’ ballots in years past, either. But “Sinners” has won over everyone, even Academy voters. And it’s done so to the tune of 16 Oscar nominations, a new all-time record.

Is Paul Thomas Anderson going to ultimately prevail or will his moment in the spotlight get spoiled by the vampire onslaught? And can anyone else sneak in a few wins in the midst of this clash of titans? In this post, I will do my best to make sense of it all. If I’m right, awesome! If I’m wrong, that means the night ended up being more unpredictable, which is often more interesting. And yes, I go through all 24 categories in this post, listing my prediction for each one, while also giving my personal pick if I had a ballot. So let’s dive in!


Documentary Short Film

Nominations

- “All the Empty Rooms” – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

- “Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” – Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo

- “Children No More: Were and are Gone” – Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins

- “The Devil is Busy” – Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Ganbhir

- “Perfectly a Strangeness” – Alison McAlpine


Will Win

- “All the Empty Rooms” – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones


Should Win

- “All the Empty Rooms” – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones


And we start with the shorts. Even the best Oscar prognosticators with every chart and statistic in the world will admit that it’s almost impossible to get these all right. But if you have an Oscar pool with your friends, the person who did the best on the shorts will typically win. My very unscientific approach here is to look at IMDb scores and vote totals, as well as Letterboxd, to see if there’s any that stand out. Obviously there’s not exactly major crossover between audience reaction and Academy votes, but it’s sometimes worked in the past. Doing that points to the Netflix one on the list, “All the Empty Rooms.” And, yes, I watched that one, along with “Armed Only with a Camera” and “The Devil is Busy” (those two being on HBO Max). The second you start watching it, you feel like it’s the runaway winner. It’s about a reporter who is paying tribute to kids who got killed in school shootings and it’ll make you bawl your eyes out.


Animated Short Film

Nominations

- “Butterfly” – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi

- “Forevergreen” – Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears

- “The Girl Who Cried Pears” – Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski

- “Retirement Plan” – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman

- “The Three Sisters” – Konstantin Bronzit


Will Win

- “Retirement Plan” – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman


Should Win

- n/a


I meant to watch these ones. I promised myself that I’d get back to them. I just simply ran out of time. But the top four are all on YouTube if any of you want to give them a watch. My previously stated method of trying to figure these shorts out did not help much. It eliminated “The Three Sisters” because that one was significantly below the others. But the other four were almost identical in all three categories I looked at. “Forevergreen” was slightly below the other three, but not by enough for me to rule it out. I think “Butterfly” is the betting favorite, but I went with “Retirement Plan” simply because Domhnall Gleeson is the voice actor in the short. And sometimes they go for a recognizable name if that exists. So if I’m throwing a dart at the wall, that’s the direction I decided to go.


Live Action Short Film

Nominations

- “Butcher’s Stain” – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi

- “A Friend of Dorothy” – Lee Knight and James Dean

- “Jane Austen’s Period Drama” – Julia Aks and Steve Pinder

- “The Singers” – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt

- “Two People Exchanging Saliva” – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata


Will Win

- “Two People Exchanging Saliva” – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata


Should Win

- n/a


Again, I didn’t get around to these before publishing this. I plan on doing so because I enjoy watching these shorts. If you want to check them out, too, the only one not available from my searching is “Butcher’s Stain.” You can find “The Singers” on Netflix and the other three on YouTube. Not that it matters for voters, because they have access to all of them, but sometimes the Netflix pick can be the easy vote. It’s definitely been watched by more people, from what I can tell. And Netflix has the means to campaign, which can help influence voters. So I was tempted to go with “The Singers” because of that. I went with “Two People Exchanging Saliva” because it had the highest score on Letterboxd, while on IMDb they were all the same. Except for “Butcher’s Stain.” That one is last place in regard to these votes, meaning I would be surprised to see its name called. Any of the other four would not surprise. “Two People Exchanging Saliva” is also a memorable title, so maybe that helps people remember it?


International Feature Film

Nominations

- “The Secret Agent” – Brazil

- “It Was Just an Accident” – France

- “Sentimental Value” – Norway

- “Sirāt” – Spain

- “The Voice of Hind Rajab” – Tunisia


Will Win

- “Sentimental Value” – Norway


Should Win

- “Sentimental Value” – Norway


This has been one of the strongest years for the International films category. Normally these evade me, but I’ve actually seen the top three. “Sirāt” is still in theaters, but not in enough for me to have seen it just yet. Perhaps soon. The last one, I have no idea when I’ll have the opportunity. But in regards to the prediction here, “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent” are both best picture nominees, while “It Was Just an Accident” got into original screenplay, so all three of those have very strong support. People from Brazil have been very loud and vocal in supporting their films lately, so I’m certainly not going to count out “The Secret Agent,” but “Sentimental Value” feels like the safest of the two because it has nine total nominations compared to the four for “The Secret Agent.” And historically there’s not been a ton of surprises in this category, so I’ll play it safe with my prediction. For my personal vote, “The Secret Agent” and “It Was Just an Accident” didn’t fully land with me like I was hoping, but “Sentimental Value” is a very charming film with a ton of great acting performances, so it easily wins my vote.


Documentary Feature Film

Nominations

- “The Alabama Solution” – Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman

- “Come See Me in the Good Light” – Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen

- “Cutting Through Rocks” – Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni

- “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” – David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber and Alžběta Karásková

- “The Perfect Neighbor” – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee


Will Win

- “The Perfect Neighbor” – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee


Should Win

- “The Perfect Neighbor” – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee


I always love going through the documentaries come Oscar season. So when nominations came out, I was eager to get going and get them all watched. And thus I became very annoyed that three of them weren’t available to me. All five of these came out at Sundance in January 2025, so they had a whole year to find a home and get distribution. But oh well. “The Perfect Neighbor” and “The Alabama Solution” are the two that I have watched. “The Perfect Neighbor” I watched right away when it came to Netflix in October. It’s the exact type of crime documentary from Netflix that I’m a sucker for. It’s very effective in making you mad at this grumpy, soulless old lady. It’s also a very well put together documentary. It’d likely get my vote even if I had seen the others. It also has over five times the number of votes on IMDb than the others, so clearly awareness for this one is through the roof in comparison to the others. That and the Netflix campaign power makes it a hard one to bet against, but if there’s a spoiler, “The Alabama Solution” is about the prison injustices in Alabama, so a relevant subject matter could stick with voters.


Music (Original Song)

Nominations

- “Dear Me” – Kesha (From “Diane Warren: Relentless”; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)

- “Golden” – HUNTER/X: EJAE, AUDRA NUNA & REI AMI (From “KPop Demon Hunters”; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park)

- “I Lied to You” – Miles Caton (From “Sinners”; Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson)

- “Sweet Dreams of Joy” – Nicholas Pike (From “Viva Verdi!”; Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike)

- “Train Dreams” – Nick Cave (From “Train Dreams”; Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave)


Will Win

- “Golden” – HUNTER/X: EJAE, AUDRA NUNA & REI AMI (From “KPop Demon Hunters; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park)


Should Win

- “I Lied to You” – Miles Caton (From “Sinners”; Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson)


Death, taxes, and Diane Warren getting a nomination in the best song category. One of these days they’re actually going to give her a win. But with “Sinners” and “KPop Demon Hunters” present, this year is not that year. Honestly if they’re not going to give her a win, they should just stop giving her a nomination. She also needs to write a song for a best picture nominee or one that gets super popular on the radio or Billboard charts. That’s how she’s going to get it. Anyways, this is one of the easiest to predict on the night. “KPop Demon Hunters” and “Golden” have been steamrolling through everything and it’s going to lead to an easy win. If “Sinners” pulls the upset, that’s a sign that it’s poised to straight up pull a “Return of the King” and just win everything. But that’s not quite how I see this night going. As far as my personal pick, I thought about making a snarky remark towards “KPop Demon Hunters,” but “Golden” is a song I actually enjoy, so I’m not mad, even though I think it’s used at a weird spot in the actual movie. Speaking of which, the moment where “I Lied to You” plays in “Sinners” is the best scene in my favorite movie from this last year, so that’s an easy pick for me. And if it pulls the crazy upset, I would be absolutely elated.


Music (Original Score)

Nominations

- “Bugonia” – Jerskin Fendrix

- “Frankenstein” – Alexandre Desplat

- “Hamnet” – Max Richter

- “One Battle After Another” – Jonny Greenwood

- “Sinners” – Ludwig Goransson


Will Win

- “Sinners” – Ludwig Goransson


Should Win

- “Hamnet” – Max Richter


This is a category where I enjoy doing a personal deep dive. I’ve spent the last few days re-listening to all the scores as I drive and walk around. Looking at my personal pick first, I always try to look out for scores that are unique and creative rather than just your traditional movie score. But ultimately for me it came down to which score elicited the strongest emotional response. “Hamnet” is a movie that made me sob and the music does a lot of the heavy lifting in helping you feel what the movie wants you to feel when the worst tragedy happens. Listening to the score again got me to feel all of those same emotions again, so I think it does the most effective job out of the group. But all five of these are very pleasant scores to listen to. The tricky part of the conversation is that the climax of the movie includes a piece of music that was not original to “Hamnet.” So do I not vote for it because of that? The Oscars deemed the score eligible and they can be very picky, so I’m fine with it, too. Also, the rest of the score that is original is pretty effective. So it’s not just one piece doing all the heavy lifting. “Sinners” feels like it’s going to win this. And of course I’m not upset. Music is a very central core theme to the whole movie, so it makes a ton of sense. For me, the soundtrack in “Sinners,” which is absolutely fire, does more heavy lifting than the score itself. I don’t know if others made that distinction in this category, but I did personally.


Visual Effects

Nominations

- “Avatar: Fire and Ash” – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

- “F1” – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson

- “Jurassic World Rebirth” – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould

- “The Lost Bus” – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin

- “Sinners” – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean


Will Win

- “Avatar: Fire and Ash” – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett


Should Win

- “Sinners” – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean


Both previous Avatar movies won this category, so there’s no reason to believe that it’ll be different on the third time around. For “Avatar: The Way of Water” just three years ago, that was the solo win it got. There’s also a lack of other obvious choices as an alternative, so I don’t really know what the spoiler would be. For my personal vote, I confess to being a bit petty. I don’t want to vote for “Avatar.” I didn’t see it and don’t really plan to. I’m also not voting for a Jurassic World movie. I did see that one and it was not good. Why “Superman” didn’t show up here, or one of the two Marvel movies, is a bit mystifying, but I guess I default to “Sinners.” The other two don’t scream visual effects, either. There are plenty of important visual effects needed to make a horror film work, so I feel somewhat justified, but I’m also ready to move onto the next category. This one is weird this year.


Sound

Nominations

- “F1” – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta

- “Frankenstein” – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern

- “One Battle After Another” – José Antonio García, Cristopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor

- “Sinners” – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker

- “Sirāt” – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas


Will Win

- “F1” – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta


Should Win

- “F1” – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta


Once upon a time this was split into two categories, sound editing and sound mixing. They made it easy for all of us by combining it into one category – Best Sound. They also made it easy for us by nominating a racing movie. Sound design is important in every film. The movies where you don’t think about sound design deserve more credit. But “F1” definitely is one that stands out quite a bit and I feel that’s where the voters will lean, too. Personally I had issues with “F1” when it came to the story and characters, and thus I roll my eyes a bit at it getting a best picture nomination. But story and characters have nothing to do with sound design. That part of the movie was absolutely thrilling!


Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominations

- “Frankenstein” – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey

- “Kokuho” – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu

- “Sinners” – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry

- “The Smashing Machine” – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern

- “The Ugly Stepsister” – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg


Will Win

- “Frankenstein” – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey


Should Win

- “The Ugly Stepsister” – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg


It’s a battle of “Sinners” vs. “One Battle After Another,” as I’ve already discussed in this post and will continue to do so. But this is the part of the night where “Frankenstein” steps in and takes a few trophies. Also very deserving. “Frankenstein” was another movie that made it into my top five on the year and the craft behind it is quite excellent. But I’m going with the unconventional pick here with my personal choice because I absolutely love that “The Ugly Stepsister” showed up here. It’s a very gross body horror version of “Cinderella,” which means there was a lot of work in the makeup department to pull that off. Horror deserves to show up more often here. “Kokuho” I hear might actually have the most makeup and hairstyling from a traditional sense, but that movie has not been made available for me to watch, so I can’t personally be the judge of that. And I don’t want to base a vote simply on the trailer. But even so, the unconventional pick of the horror film still makes me the most happy.


Film Editing

Nominations

- “F1” – Stephen Mirrione

- “Marty Supreme” – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie

- “One Battle After Another” – Andy Jurgensen

- “Sentimental Value” – Olivier Bugge Coutté

- “Sinners” – Michael P. Shawver


Will Win

- “One Battle After Another” – Andy Jurgensen


Should Win

- “F1” – Stephen Mirrione


This is another category where I want to predict “F1” as the winner for similar reasons as the Best Sound category. It seems like a movie that many will respond to in the technical categories that it has shown up in. And “Ford v Ferrari” won the award back in 2019, so there is precedent for a racing movie like this to win the award. And for my personal ballot, that’s where I will go. But for the prediction, I’ve noticed that this often goes to a best picture front runner, which makes me lean “Sinners” or “One Battle After Another.” To differentiate between the two, I tried to look at the ACE Eddie precursor, but they split comedy and drama into different categories. “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” were in different categories. And both won. So that didn’t help. But thinking about this logically, “One Battle” does have the “most” editing. The movie is nearly three hours long, yet flies by. That’s good editing work. And the car chase scene at the end could also put it over the edge. If “One Battle” does win this category, is that a sign that it’s going to win the night? Possibly. But in comparing our two movies, I think “One Battle” will simply stand out more for editing than “Sinners.”


Costume Design

Nominations

- “Avatar: Fire and Ash” – Deborah L. Scott

- “Frankenstein” – Hate Hawley

- “Hamnet” – Malgosia Turzanska

- “Marty Supreme” – Miyako Bellizzi

- “Sinners” – Ruth E. Carter


Will Win

- “Frankenstein” – Hate Hawley


Should Win

- “Frankenstein” – Hate Hawley


Quick side tangent before diving into the “Frankenstein” of this. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” only got two nominations this year. I find it a bit odd that this is the one category that it broke into, especially since most of the movie is visual effects. I suppose you still need to design costumes for your digitally created characters. And maybe there was some real costumes worn in filming. But it’s still odd. But yes, there was a lot of love for “Frankenstein” when nominations came out and this is another category where it feels correct. I pondered on the other options personally, namely “Hamnet” and “Sinners,” but ultimately there is a wide variety of different costumes worn in “Frankenstein” across the many sections of that movie, so I think I tend to agree with the populous choice here.


Cinematography

Nominations

- “Frankenstein” – Dan Laustsen

- “Marty Supreme” – Darius Khondji

- “One Battle After Another” – Michael Bauman

- “Sinners” – Autumn Durald Arkapaw

- “Train Dreams” – Adolpho Veloso


Will Win

- “One Battle After Another” – Michael Bauman


Should Win

- “Frankenstein” – Dan Laustsen


This is a category that is seen as an intense three movie race at the moment between “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” and “Train Dreams.” And as I sit and ponder which movie seems like the best choice, I can totally understand why voters themselves might be puzzled over this, too. All of these movies are beautifully shot films. I don’t know if “Train Dreams” is going to win anything on Oscar night, but it does have a lot of support as a film and this is the category where it has the best chance. I could see a scenario where some voters say that there’s plenty of other categories to reward the major films and give this one to “Train Dreams,” considering most of that movie relied very heavily on its cinematography to help tell its story. Yet every other film has similar arguments. To help me break the tie, instead of going with another dart throw, I looked at what the American Society of Cinematographers did. Their nominations were this exact five. No category split. And they went “One Battle After Another.” For my vote, I’m continuing the “Frankenstein” run. That movie was absolutely gorgeous and I’m very happy I caught it in a theater. If you waited and saw it on Netflix instead, I think you missed out. But I blame Netflix for that. “Sinners” and “Train Dreams” would be very close behind for me, though.


Production Design

Nominations

- “Frankenstein” – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

- “Hamnet” – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton

- “Marty Supreme” – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis

- “One Battle After Another” – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino

- “Sinners” – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne


Will Win

- “Frankenstein” – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau


Should Win

- “Frankenstein” – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau


This is the final technical category on my list, and with that we continue the “Frankenstein” run. Honestly, it makes me feel like “Frankenstein” might be higher up on ballots than people might think, but it makes sense for this to be the big technical play on the night. I don’t want to act too much like a broken record by repeating myself. But again, many costumes, many characters, many sections of the movie, absolutely gorgeous. And that means many different sets that are designed. The totality of it all is what puts it over the top for me. The other categories have well-designed sets when you force yourself to stop and think about them. But this is one where “Frankenstein” really jumps out at you while you watch.


Animated Feature Film

Nominations

- “Arco” – Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman (Multiple Production Companies)

- “Elio” – Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm (Pixar)

- “KPop Demon Hunters” – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong (Sony Pictures Animation)

- “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” – Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (Multiple Production Companies)

- “Zootopia 2” – Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino (Walt Disney Animation Studios)


Will Win

- “KPop Demon Hunters” – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong (Sony Pictures Animation)


Should Win

- “Zootopia 2” – Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino (Walt Disney Animation Studios)


Very little debate on this one needed. “KPop Demon Hunters” is the major animated movie of the moment and it has had no trouble sweeping this category in just about every precursor it has shown up in. The movie that is trying to play spoiler is the recently crowned highest-grossing movie at the domestic box office – “Zootopia 2.” While that Disney movie has a lot of love, here’s a stat for you. In the now 25 years of this category existing (2001 was the first year), only one franchise has had a sequel win this award – Toy Story. That being “Toy Story 3” and “Toy Story 4.” Outside those, the Academy has proven that they don’t usually vote for animated sequels. Even popular ones such as “Inside Out 2” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” also lost. So “Zootopia 2” doesn’t seem like it has a very good chance in my book. It wins my personal vote mostly by default. I have it slightly over “Elio” in my yearly ranking of 2025. Although I’m actually pretty confident that I would vote for “Arco” or “Little Amélie,” but those small, indie distributors have not yet made those two movies available for me to watch. They are very high on my watch list when they do become available.


Casting

Nominations

- “Hamnet” – Nina Gold

- “Marty Supreme” – Jennifer Benditti

- “One Battle After Another” – Cassandra Kulukundis

- “The Secret Agent” – Gabriel Domingues

- “Sinners” – Francine Maisler


Will Win

- “Sinners” – Francine Maisler


Should Win

- “Sinners” – Francine Maisler


Here’s our newest category this year, Best Casting! I’m happy to see it here because this is a great way to honor the full cast of a movie, while giving credit to the casting director for putting them all together. Many award shows have some version of a best cast, which makes sense because many movies are great acting showcases, but it’s hard to point out just one or two to represent. To me this feels like this honors that part of the acting realm, but also gives attention to finding new cast members or bringing actors together that you wouldn’t necessarily think. With it being the first time this award has existed at the Oscars, it makes it mostly guess work in trying to figure out what the collective group of Academy voters is going to lean towards in terms of what they prefer. And it might take a few years to establish a pattern. But it seems like most people think that “Sinners” is going to get the inaugural trophy. As I sit and ponder on the cast of each film myself, I think that makes sense. Some have noted that “Marty Supreme” has a lot of cast members that aren’t actors. But that one, and several others, primarily focuses the movie on a select few characters, while others come and go quickly. The cast for “Sinners” is massive and they all play a huge role. Plus there’s some like Miles Caton who feel like an excellent find. This was his first movie and it was a huge breakout. But I don’t know. I’m just talking through this. Maybe it will take me a few years, too, to figure out what I like most when it comes to best casting.


Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominations

- “Bugonia” – Sreenplay by Will Tracy

- “Frankenstein” – Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro

- “Hamnet” – Screenplay by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell

- “One Battle After Another” – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson

- “Train Dreams” – Screenplay by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar


Will Win

- “One Battle After Another” – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson


Should Win

- “Frankenstein” – Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro


Now we are at the biggest awards of the night. And we start with the writing, which is insanely easy to predict. “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” are the two major front runners and they are competing in separate writing categories. They’re both going to win. Sorry that I just spoiled my next section. But with this category, it’s what I said at the beginning. Paul Thomas Anderson is going to win an Oscar. That seems like a guaranteed, set in stone event. Will he win three or just one? I don’t know. You’ll see my official guess here in a second. But at an absolute minimum, he is winning best adapted screenplay. I don’t think there’s even a spoiler candidate here. Personally I don’t play the game of career achievements, though. I have zero problem with Paul Thomas Anderson being a winner. And I did enjoy “One Battle After Another.” But I didn’t enjoy it as much as some other people. For me this is a tough choice between “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” and “Bugonia,” the latter being almost what I went with, due to how fun and clever it is. But I think I’m going traditional here. In my review of “Frankenstein” I noted that it seemed like Guillermo set out to make the quintessential version of the Mary Shelley novel, which surprisingly we haven’t really had. Most adaptations do their own thing or follow the 1930s movie, which was very different. But Guillermo’s version feels like the most faithful version, while also striking an impressive balancing act of being strictly Guillermo. And to me that was one of the most impressive parts of his movie. No shade to Paul, but I would give Guillermo the trophy.


Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominations

- “Blue Moon” – Written by Robert Kaplow

- “It Was Just an Accident” – Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators - Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian

- “Marty Supreme” – Written by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie

- “Sentimental Value” – Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

- “Sinners” – Written by Ryan Coogler


Will Win

- “Sinners” – Written by Ryan Coogler


Should Win

- “Sinners” – Written by Ryan Coogler


Easy prediction. Easy analysis. I already mentioned it in my previous section, but in case you skimmed over that one and stopped here, Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler are competing in two different writing categories. And they are both winning Oscars. It won’t be helpful for trying to see what eventually wins Best Picture, but it’s definitely a fair way of doing things. For my pick, adapted screenplay was tricky to pick, but this is very easy. “Sinners” is my favorite movie of 2025. A big part of that is because it’s a vampire horror musical, that also dips its feet into being a period piece, a western, and a handful of other things. That’s a massive swing of an idea that requires a true master to pull it off. And before you can execute the final idea, you need to have a pretty solid, tight screenplay as the baseline. And there was some true magic that went into those written words that made this movie work so well.


Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominations

- Elle Fanning – “Sentimental Value”

- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – “Sentimental Value”

- Amy Madigan – “Weapons”

- Wunmi Mosaku – “Sinners”

- Teyana Taylor – “One Battle After Another”


Will Win

- Wunmi Mosaku – “Sinners”


Should Win

- Wunmi Mosaku – “Sinners”


This is where my personal predictions have a chance of falling apart. I feel like I’m taking a bit of risk here by predicting Wunmi to get the win, but this has been a wild race all season. In fact, three of the four acting races seem like they’re up in the air, with only one locked in. Most years it’s the opposite. Amy Madigan has always been the buzzed about performance, but there were questions as to if it would translate, or even result in a nomination. Horror doesn’t do well at the Oscars. And that’s funny to say that with “Sinners” present, but “Weapons” is definitely pure horror, while “Sinners” is that and a whole lot more. Amy did get the nomination, which was awesome. But it seemed like Teyana Taylor had this in the bag at first. I was fine with that. She does great in “One Battle After Another.” But then Amy started actually winning, including the Actor Award (formerly known as the SAG Award), which is the biggest predictor. And now she’s the front runner and safe bet. Wunmi won the BAFTA award, but Amy wasn’t nominated there. With the momentum of “Sinners,” there has been buzz that she rides that to an Oscar win, but the betting odds and stats are still against that. Logic says pick Amy, but I’m still caught up on this whole horror thing with the Academy, which I do feel is part of the reason why Demi Moore lost last year for “The Substance.” With all this doubt in my head about horror, and Teyana not having actually won anything lately, I’m going with Wunmi here. Maybe I’m just voting with my heart on this one because she would be my personal choice, too. It’s close because there’s a lot of great performances, but I’m thinking of whose name called would make me the happiest and it’s Wunmi.


Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominations

- Benicio del Toro – “One Battle After Another”

- Jacob Elordi – “Frankenstein”

- Delroy Lindo – “Sinners”

- Sean Penn – “One Battle After Another”

- Stellan Skarsgard – “Sentimental Value”


Will Win

- Delroy Lindo – “Sinners”


Should Win

- Delroy Lindo – “Sinners”


Speaking of complicated, I’ll try not to get lost in the weeds too much here, but both supporting actor categories are equally as confusing when you try to follow the race. Sean Penn is the favorite. He won both BAFTA and the Actor Award. But Stellan Skarsgard was not nominated at the Actors and Delroy Lindo wasn’t nominated for either of them. Sean Penn has won two Oscars. Are they going to give him a third, when Stellan and Delroy have won zero, and are both options on the ballot? In fact, this is their first nomination for both and you never know if there’s another opportunity coming. I think Stellan is the most logical choice in my brain, but the only major precursor he won was the Golden Globe. Delroy hasn’t won anything, either. But he wasn’t an option at those others. His was a surprise nomination at the Oscars. And even though I might again be voting for my heart over my brain, I do think there is some legitimate groundswell for support. With him being an option to choose, it’s very possible they do just that. Like with Wunmi, hearing his name would make me the happiest. I just want everyone from “Sinners” to win something. But my personal No. 2 would be Jacob Elordi. As Frankenstein’s Monster, he put that whole movie on his back and made it work. The movie remains visually gorgeous and perfect on a technical scale, but the story doesn’t work without Elordi’s performance. So it’s close, but it’s still Delroy for me.


Actress in a Lead Role

Nominations

- Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet”

- Rose Byrne – “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

- Kate Hudson – “Song Sung Blue”

- Renate Reinsve – “Sentimental Value”

- Emma Stone – “Bugonia”


Will Win

- Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet”


Should Win

- Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet”


Three of the four acting races seem like legitimate toss-ups. One of them is set in stone. This is the one that’s set in stone. Not that I support gambling, but if there was one category to bet your life savings on, this is the category. There is no debate. There is no spoiler. There has been no up and down narrative as the season has gone on. She started the awards season as the heavy front runner and she followed that up by winning literally everything she was nominated for. It would be the biggest upset in Oscar history if she lost. Maybe that’s a slight hyperbole, but you get what I’m saying. And it’s very deserved. Not only do I love the fact that Jessie is about to become an Oscar winner, but she gave one of the most devastatingly emotional performances that I’ve seen in some time. I don’t want to randomly drop “Hamnet” spoilers without warning, but it was one of my top movies of last year and it was all because of her and what her character went through over the course of the film.


Actor in a Lead Role

Nominations

- Timothée Chalamet – “Marty Supreme”

- Leonardo DiCaprio – “One Battle After Another”

- Ethan Hawke – “Blue Moon”

- Michael B. Jordan – “Sinners”

- Wagner Moura – “The Secret Agent”


Will Win

- Michael B. Jordan – “Sinners”


Should Win

- Michael B. Jordan – “Sinners”


I love how this category has evolved over the course of the season. It hasn’t been a three-horse race like the supporting ones, but early on it was seen as the year that Timothée Chalamet was winning his Oscar. He gave a very good performance in a movie that I also thought was pretty great. I walked out of the theater saying to myself that I think Timmy just gave the best performance of his career and would have my vote at the Oscars. But then I immediately stopped myself, reminding myself that Michael B. Jordan still existed. He gave my actual favorite performance from my favorite movie, made more impressive that he perfectly played two different characters. It’s the same Michael B. Jordan, but you can easily tell who is Stack and who is Smoke in the movie. And not just with what each is wearing, but he gives distinct performances for both, someone playing off himself to make it work. I didn’t think it would be actually realistic that he would win the Oscar, though. There was even a bit of doubt that he would get nominated. When he did, I thought to myself that him just being there is the win. And maybe that still ends up being the story, but Timmy has stumbled down the stretch, losing both BAFTA and the Actor Award, that latter going to… Michael B. Jordan. So this one is more than just voting with my heart, although I’m definitely doing that, too. Michael B. Jordan is the betting favorite to win. And I so hope it happens. If Timmy wins, awesome. Both are deserving. But Michael B. Jordan winning for “Sinners” specifically would be an absolutely legendary Oscar win.


Directing

Nominations

- Chloé Zhao – “Hamnet”

- Josh Safdie – “Marty Supreme”

- Paul Thomas Anderson – “One Battle After Another”

- Joachim Trier – “Sentimental Value”

- Ryan Coogler – “Sinners”


Will Win

- Paul Thomas Anderson – “One Battle After Another”


Should Win

- Ryan Coogler – “Sinners”


I don’t want to set this one in stone. If “Sinners” has an outstanding night, it’s very possible that Ryan Coogler rides that to a Best Director win. But the narrative at the very beginning of this post still seems like the narrative that I’m going with here. The Academy has decided they want to finally give Paul Thomas Anderson his Oscar win. And I think many voters are going to make sure that’s set in stone by voting for him in both writing and directing, to ensure that he at least wins one. And I think that leads to him winning both. And my evidence of that, outside almost every prognosticator predicting that to happen, is that he won at the Directors Guild Awards (DGA). So it seems like a pretty safe bet. However, even if he wins here, I still don’t think that tells the story of who wins Best Picture. They could easily split and everyone goes home happy. For my personal pick, though, obviously I’m going Coogler. He took a massive swing with his idea, wrote a perfect script, then followed that up with the perfect execution. I don’t even have Guillermo in this category to debate myself with. Chloé and Josh both did good. They’d be my two and three. But they don’t hold a candle to Coogler. Sorry, Paul. I know you’re going to be massively disappointed that a nobody like me made you wait to win your Oscar in his own voting, but I think you’ll be happy with your actual win. I don’t decide the Oscars.


Best Picture

Nominations

- “Bugonia” – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, Producers (Focus Features)

- “F1” – Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers (Warner Bros.)

- “Frankenstein” – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, Producers (Netflix)

- “Hamnet” – Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, Producers (Focus Features)

- “Marty Supreme” – Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, Producers (A24)

- “One Battle After Another” – Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers (Warner Bros.)

- “The Secret Agent” – Emilie Lesclaux, Producer (NEON)

- “Sentimental Value” – Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berensten Ottmar, Producers (NEON)

- “Sinners” – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers (Warner Bros.)

- “Train Dreams” – Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, Producers (Netflix)


Will Win

- “Sinners” – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers (Warner Bros.)


Should Win

- “Sinners” – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers (Warner Bros.)


And here we are. I don’t think I need to explain my personal pick. “Sinners” was my favorite movie of 2025. If you want to check out my full blog post with my top movies of the year, feel free to do so. For my full rankings of all the Best Picture nominees, in regards to my personal favorites, go check out my Letterboxd or any of my socials. I shared that there. I’ll focus these comments on the race itself. And yes, for this category, it’s only these two. “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners.” And I don’t know which one it’s going to be. I really don’t. Even though I’ve gone through this whole post and made my picks, I think that could fit with either one winning. Maybe the reward for “Sinners” is the writing and acting wins. Maybe the reward is simply breaking the record for most nominations. But I do think there’s a genuine support that feels natural. I do think there’s been a shift in momentum. Personally this has felt like “Parasite” and “Everything Everywhere All At Once.” A non-typical film that the old Academy would’ve rejected that breaks through and wins over the hearts of people all around the world. Yet logic still says “One Battle After Another,” especially when you look at stats, odds, and precursors. But my heart wants “Sinners” and my gut feels like it’s going to happen. I’m oddly nervous about “cursing” my favorite movie by picking it to win Best Picture, but I feel the curse was lifted when “Everything Everywhere” won Best Picture three years ago. It was my favorite of that year and I correctly predicted it as the winner. If I’m wrong, then oh well. A movie directed by Paul Thomas Anderson will be in the Oscar history books as a Best Picture winner. And that’s not a terrible consolation prize, even if I’m personally not quite as high as some others are.