Anyways, this is one of my favorite posts of the each year where I go through every single category at the Oscars and list two things: who I think is going to win in each category (“will win”) and who I would personally vote for if I had an Oscar ballot (“should win”). This is mostly just for fun. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. And most likely no one will remember or keep tally outside myself. In a way you can see this as what I was personally expecting going into the night. If I’m mostly right, then cool. That makes me look good. If I get a lot wrong, then that means there was a lot of chaos and unpredictability, which often makes the night more interesting. I think the highest I’ve gotten is 20 or 21 correct. The worst is around 14 or 15. I think this night will land a bit more on the predictable side of the fence, but we’ll see what happens.
As far as my process, you should know that I watch a lot of movies. And I have seen most of these. You might know that I’m also super nerdy when it comes to the awards season. Even if I wind up unhappy with what actually wins the awards, the movies that are in contention are often really good. And this season’s lineup was rather great. Five of the best picture nominees were in my personal top 10 of the year and a few others were pretty close. But yes, I follow the awards season pretty close all year through various podcasts and YouTube channels, my favorite being Awards Radar. In making a prediction, part of it is keeping my finger close to the pulse of what others are thinking, another part of it is looking at the precursors to see who and what have been winning, and then finally sometimes you just gotta go with your gut if you’re not sure, trying to attempt to balance brain and heart.
Enough of all that, though. Here’s my picks and predictions! This is always a long post, but hopefully it’s organized in a way that you can spend as long or short as you want with it. If you have any thoughts about anything I bring up, let me know and we can discuss!
Documentary Short Film
Nominations
- “The ABCs of Book Banning” - Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic
- “The Barber of Little Rock” - John Hoffman and Christine Turner
- “Island in Between” - S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien
- “The Last Repair Shop” - Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
- “Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó” - Sean Wang and Sam Davis
Will Win
- “The Last Repair Shop” - Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
Should Win
- “The Last Repair Shop” - Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
Starting with the shorts, these are always the most unpredictable. If you do an Oscar pool with any friends, getting lucky enough to get these right are usually how you’ll win because even the “experts” have no idea how these will go. Pick a name from a hat and see what happens. Any buzz you here seems to indicate that it’s between “The ABCs of Book Banning” and “The Last Repair Shop.” It could go to “The ABCs of Book Banning” due to the social commentary behind that. But I actually watched all of these, most are on YouTube, the others either on Disney+ or Paramount+. And in doing so, “The Last Repair Shop” is just so much better than the other four for me and it’s not remotely close. Maybe this is the wrong way to pick for this one, but I have a hard time seeing people watching all of these and not going with “The Last Repair Shop,” so that’s what I’ll predict.
Animated Short Film
Nominations
- “Letter to a Pig” - Tai Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
- “Ninety-Five Senses” - Jerusha and Jared Hess
- “Our Uniform” - Yegane Moghaddam
- “Pachyderme” - Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius
- “War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” - Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
Will Win
- “Ninety-Five Senses” - Jerusha and Jared Hess
Should Win
- N/A
This one feels like a trap. Unlike the previous category of shorts, I have not seen any of these because, annoyingly, they aren’t available to be watched unless you go find the theatrical release of shorts, which for me is 45 minutes away. But anyways, just glancing through the titles, it seems like many will see John and Yoko and give that the way off of name recognition. That’s the trap I’m seeing, though. I think it might go to either “Letter to a Pig” or “Ninety-Five Senses.” I decided to go with the latter with my unscientific approach of me wanting to see Jerusha and Jared Hess, writers and directors of “Napoleon Dynamite” and “Nacho Libre,” win an Oscar. It also has the highest IMDb score of the five, which I’ve sometimes gone with and nailed all three.
Live Action Short Film
Nominations
- “The After” - Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
- “Invincible” - Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
- “Knight of Fortune” - Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
- “Red, White and Blue” - Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane
- “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” - Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
Will Win
- “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” - Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
Should Win
- N/A
This one also feels like a trap. Is it too easy to just go with Wes Anderson here? There might be some who don’t want to see Wes Anderson’s first ever Oscar win come via a short. There also might be some who think he’s too mainstream and thus might not like such a big name winning in such a small category. But I don’t know, there’s close to 10,000 Academy members and I just have a feeling that most will like the opportunity to give Wes an Oscar. It’s also the highest viewed short by a long shot. I have also not seen any of these, but in this case it’s my own fault. I simply ran out of time. But Wes Anderson did release a series of shorts on Netflix this past year and I’ve been meaning to get around to them. “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” is a movie that I’ve had on my radar. It was on my 2023 yearly movie preview, back when I thought it was a feature-length film and not just a short. So I’ll definitely get around to it.
International Feature Film
Nominations
- “Io Capitano” - Italy
- “Perfect Days” - Japan
- “Society of the Snow” - Spain
- “The Teachers’ Lounge” - Germany
- “The Zone of Interest”
Will Win
- “The Zone of Interest”
Should Win
- N/A
These movies I would like to give a watch to. But they’re rarely available to be watched, so it’s tough. I have seen two of them, that being “Society of the Snow” and “The Zone of Interest.” The former is on Netflix and the latter had a wide enough theatrical release to hit my local cinema. Of those two, I prefer “Society of the Snow,” but it didn’t feel right making an official pick without having seen the other three. As far as what’s going to win, if France had submitted “Anatomy of a Fall” or if Japan had submitted “Godzilla Minus One,” maybe this is more of a discussion. Beause that’s how this works. They don’t just pick the best international movies. The country has to officially submit their entry and that’s the pool they have to go from. France and Japan submitted different movies. That leaves us with an easy win for “The Zone of Interest,” which got five total nominations, including best picture and best director. When “Society of the Snow” is the only one to even get a second nomination, and that was for makeup and hairstyling, this race was over on nomination morning.
Documentary Feature Film
Nominations
- “Bobi Wine: The People’s President” - Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek
- “The Eternal Memory” - Maite Alberdi
- “Four Daughters” - Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
- “To Kill a Tiger” - Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim
- “20 Days in Mariupol” - Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
Will Win
- “20 Days in Mariupol” - Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
Should Win
- “20 Days in Mariupol” - Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
I did spend this past week watching all of these movies. They’re all available to stream. Except for “To Kill a Tiger,” which doesn’t get released on Netflix until Sunday. I’ll watch it, but I didn’t want to wait to post this. The biggest conversation with this category is the documentaries that DIDN’T get nominated, namely “Still: A Michael J. Fox Story” and “American Symphony,” the two movies that people thought were the two front runners. That leaves us with a rather easy choice because “20 Days in Mariupol” is about the start of the Russian/Ukraine war, as a journalist was in the city for 20 days, showing the terror that average, innocent citizens were experiencing as the Russians were attacking and killing everyone, while trying to cover it up. It’s a hard watch, but one that I think is one that everyone should check out.
Music (Original Song)
Nominations
- “The Fire Inside” - Becky G (From “Flaming Hot”; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
- “I’m Just Ken” - Ryan Gosling (from “Barbie”; Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt)
- “It Never Went Away” - Jon Batiste (from “American Symphony”; Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson)
- “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” - Osage Tribe Singers (from “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Music and Lyric by Scott George)
- “What Was I Made For?” - Billie Eilish (from “Barbie”; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)
Will Win
- “What Was I Made For?” - Billie Eilish (from “Barbie”; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)
Should Win
- “What Was I Made For?” - Billie Eilish (from “Barbie”; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)
Billie Eilish will become one of the youngest women to win two Oscars, which I think is really cool. I’ve been a big fan of hers since the start. I remember telling people when I first discovered here that they should check her out because she deserves to become a big name in the music world. And that definitely came to pass, much more than I expected. And as excited as I am to see Ryan Gosling perform “I’m Just Ken,” and as fun as it would be for it to win, Billie’s song was my favorite of last year, movie or not. So I gotta go with it. And I’ll be happy to see her win.
Music (Original Score)
Nominations
- “American Fiction” - Laura Karpman
- “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” - John Williams
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Robbie Robertson
- “Oppenheimer” - Ludwig Göransson
- “Poor Things” - Jerskin Fendrix
Will Win
- “Oppenheimer” - Ludwig Göransson
Should Win
- “Oppenheimer” - Ludwig Göransson
This is an easy category to predict. It’s going to be “Oppenheimer.” A trend that you’ll see throughout this post. It’s a harder one to decide which one is my favorite. I went on a road trip in January and played all of these scores on the drive and they’re all really good. It’s very close for me between “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon.” I almost went for the latter because it feels a tad bit more unique. But listening to the score of “Oppenheimer” felt like I was re-watching the movie and I could see in my head what was happening in the scenes when I was listening. To me that speaks volumes about how impactful the score was in helping get across the message and emotions of the movie.
Visual Effects
Nominations
- “The Creator” - Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
- “Godzilla Minus One” - Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Chibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
- “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” - Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
- “Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning” - Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
- “Napoelon” - Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould
Will Win
- “Godzilla Minus One” - Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Chibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
Should Win
- “Godzilla Minus One” - Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Chibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
I’m going with my heart on this one. Logic says “The Creator” will win. If you look at precursors, it has most of the statistics to back it up. But “Godzilla Minus One” was very late to the party and I do feel that there’s a lot of passion behind it. When it’s name came up on nomination morning, there was a very loud, positive response to that announcement. And with “Dune: Part Two” leaving 2023, that left this race wide open. I feel that’s the perfect opportunity to give a fun movie a great win. No one will remember “The Creator” in a year from now. It was visually stunning, but a terrible movie. So can’t we just give Godzilla an Oscar instead?
Sound
Nominations
- “The Creator” - Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
- “Maestro” - Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
- “Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning” - Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
- “Oppenheimer” - Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell
- “The Zone of Interest” - Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn
Will Win
- “Oppenheimer” - Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell
Should Win
- “Oppenheimer” - Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell
Another easy category. “Oppenheimer” is winning. Although for my personal pick, I thought long and hard about “The Zone of Interest.” I didn’t love the movie as a whole, mostly because I don’t know why we needed another Nazi movie. But in regards to the sound design, that kinda made the whole movie. You’re watching a couple and their family live what seems like a normal, average life. Except their Nazi leaders living by the Concentration Camp and the sounds you hear in the background is what makes it horryifing. So in that regard, it’s a solid choice. But at the same time, I decided not to overthink things. “Oppenheimer” is a movie about dropping the bomb on Japan during the war. Sound design is also kinda a big part of that movie, too.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominations
- “Golda” - Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
- “Maesto” - Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
- “Oppenheimer” - Luisa Abel
- “Poor Things” - Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
- “Society of the Snow” - Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
Will Win
- “Poor Things” - Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
Should Win
- “Maesto” - Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
This is one of those categories where I have to go with my gut feeling. And my gut feeling tells me that “Poor Things” might have a decent day. It got 11 nominations, which told me that the Academy likes it more than I was expecting. And I don’t think it gets 11 nominations without sneaking away a few wins in the process. It has a giant “Oppenheimer” in the way that will hold it back a tad bit. But this particular category goes down to “Poor Things” and “Maestro.” And it might be the one chance to give “Maestro” a win. And even though I didn’t care for “Maestro,” Bradley Cooper’s transformation over the course of the movie is enough for it to get my vote, but I think the love for “Poor Things” will put it over the edge. You can use Willem Dafoe as an argument in and of itself. His look was wacky and it’s the makeup that did that job and made the movie even more quirky.
Film Editing
Nominations
- “Anatomy of a Fall” - Laurent Sénéchal
- “The Holdovers” - Kevin Tent
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Thelma Schoonmaker
- “Oppenheimer” - Jennifer Lame
- “Poor Things” - Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Will Win
- “Oppenheimer” - Jennifer Lame
Should Win
- “Oppenheimer” - Jennifer Lame
I’ll be short and sweet here. Another technical category that “Oppenheimer” runs away with. And it’s well deserved. Film editing is sometimes hard for me to judge because if an editor does their job, you won’t notice the editing at all. But in this case, a three hour movie flew by in part because of phenomenal editing work, in my opinion. So Jennifer Lame, come on down!
Costume Design
Nominations
- “Barbie” - Jacqueline Durran
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Jacqueline West
- “Napoleon” - Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
- “Oppenheimer” - Ellen Mirojnick
- “Poor Things” - Holly Waddington
Will Win
- “Poor Things” - Holly Waddington
Should Win
- “Barbie” - Jacqueline Durran
Costume design and production design are two of the trickier categories this year. I suppose I won’t be too surprised to hear “Oppenheimer” get called if it sweeps absolutely everything it’s nominated in, but these two categories have the exact same five nominees and it both cases it’s “Barbie” vs. “Poor Things.” I went back and forth on this. For costume design, it’s hard to argue against the Barbie and Ken outfits. They were brilliant and that’s easily my pick. But is that enough to win? I hope so. But I noted that “Poor Things” surprised me on nomination morning by how much it seemed people liked it. “Barbie,” on the other hand, seemed like it disappointed a bit. Maybe there’s a tad bit less enthusiasm. No hard feelings for me. It made $1.435 billion at the worldwide box office alone. It doesn’t need any gold statues to justify it. It would be nice to see it win, but my brain is overruling my heart on this one and saying that “Poor Things” wins out.
Cinematography
Nominations
- “El Conde” - Edward Lachman
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Rodrigo Prieto
- “Maestro” - Matthew Libatique
- “Oppenheimer” - Hotye van Hoytema
- “Poor Things” - Robbie Ryan
Will Win
- “Oppenheimer” - Hotye van Hoytema
Should Win
- “Oppenheimer” - Hotye van Hoytema
I technically haven’t seen “El Conde.” That’s a bit of a random nomination there. But does there need to be much discussion here? It’s an “Oppenheimer” win. And Hotye van Hoytema might want to consider thanking Warner Bros. in his speech for moving “Dune: Part Two” out of 2023. Having seen that movie this month, that would’ve definitely won and will win next year. But with that not an option, it’s an easy “Oppenheimer” win and a deserving one, too.
Production Design
Nominations
- “Barbie” - Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
- “Napoleon” - Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff
- “Oppenheimer” - Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman
- “Poor Things” - Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
Will Win
- “Poor Things” - Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
Should Win
- “Barbie” - Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
See my conversation above in the costume design section. It’s a “Poor Things” vs. “Barbie” competition here. I want “Barbie” to win. They built the entire Barbie Land and I was very impressed with that. But I can’t really argue too much with “Poor Things.” It’s not as obvious as “Barbie,” but there is a lot of great work there. And if certain voters can’t get past the idea of giving a win to a “Barbie” movie, “Poor Things” is a solid choice here.
Animated Feature Film
Nominations
- “The Boy and the Heron” - Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki (Studio Ghibli)
- “Elemental” - Peter Sohn and Denise Ream (Pixar)
- “Nimona” - Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary (Annapurna Pictures)
- “Robot Dreams” - Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz (Multiple Production Companies)
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” - Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal (Sony Pictures Animation)
Will Win
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” - Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal (Sony Pictures Animation)
Should Win
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” - Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal (Sony Pictures Animation)
This was a bit of a race for a while. One that seemed to be swinging the way of “The Boy and the Heron” after it came out. But recent trends see “Spider-Man” taking the moment back. And from what I hear, that might be a case of the team behind “The Boy and the Heron” not caring too much to campaign their movie. I’m not the insider on that, but that’s one podcast episode I listened to mentioned. I’m not basing my prediction on that statement. I’m mostly looking at what wins each movie has had recently and “Spider-Man” has had most of them. Thus that insight kinda makes sense. This is a fantastic category, though. “Robot Dreams” is one of those movies that met the minimum qualifications to be eligible, but isn’t being released theatrically until May, which is weird. I’ve heard great things, but we’ll see. The others, though, were all pretty high on my end of year list. Which would normally make this is a hard personal choice because I love all of them. But “Across the Spider-Verse” was my No. 1 of the year, so there’s not exactly much of a debate in that realm. Animated sequels don’t often do well in this category, but this seems like it’s going to be an exception to that.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominations
- “American Fiction” - Cord Jefferson
- “Barbie” - Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
- “Oppenheimer” - Christopher Nolan
- “Poor Things” - Tony McNamara
- “The Zone of Interest” - Jonathan Glazer
Will Win
- “American Fiction” - Cord Jefferson
Should Win
- “Barbie” - Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
And now for the big ones. The screenplay awards have seemed to recently become a place to give wins to slightly smaller movies that aren’t winning the big awards. That’s not always the case. But “American Fiction” seems like a movie that was made to win said screenplay award. I wasn’t as high on it personally, but I know a lot of people who love it and it’s literally a movie about a writer, so it kinda makes sense. Honestly, though, I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see any of these movies get their name read, so I’m not very confident in this pick. I also had a tough time sitting down and analyzing in my brain which of these had the better writing. There’s solid cases both ways. But you’ll probably not be surprised to see me lean “Barbie” here.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominations
- “Anatomy of a Fall” - Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
- “The Holdovers” - David Hemingson
- “Maestro” - Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
- “May December” - Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
- “Past Lives” - Celine Song
Will Win
- “Anatomy of a Fall” - Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
Should Win
- “Anatomy of a Fall” - Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
“Anatomy of a Fall” is a movie that, despite not having been submitted by France as their international pick, is one that has a lot of support from a lot of people. It did get five nominations. It’s tough competition here from “Oppenheimer” and “The Holdovers,” with “Past Lives” being a dark horse. But it does seem like the place where “Anatomy of a Fall” gets it’s win, especially since Justine Triet has given wonderful speeches in previous awards shows this season. I think that helps. For me personally, I thought really hard between “Anatomy of a Fall” and “Past Lives.” I love them both and I would be happy to see either get a win. But if I’m looking at it really closely, I think “Anatomy of a Fall” is helped mostly by the writing, while “Past Lives” is very much an acting vehicle that makes it connect. So that’s how I made my decision.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominations
- Emily Blunt - “Oppenheimer”
- Danielle Brooks - “The Color Purple”
- America Ferrera - “Barbie”
- Jodie Foster - “Nyad”
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph - “The Holdovers”
Will Win
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph - “The Holdovers”
Should Win
- Jodie Foster - “Nyad”
It seems like there’s at least one acting category each year where someone pretty much gets anointed beforehand as the person who is going to win literally every single award. And that person this year has been Da’Vine Joy Randolph. She’s won everything. She will win the Oscar. There’s no debate. It would be one of the biggest shockers in Oscar history if they read someone else. And I think the moment this was decided was the moment Lily Gladstone got campaigned and nominated for lead actress. And Da’Vine gives a great performance. I have no issue with her winning and being the representative for her movie, which is a very lovely, heartwarming movie. But when I consider all these performances, I think Jodie Foster gives the best performance. And I’m not one to care for how many times someone has or hasn’t won. I would vote for the best performance, even if they have won twice.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominations
- Sterling K. Brown - “American Fiction”
- Robert de Niro - “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- Robert Downey Jr. - “Oppenheimer”
- Ryan Gosling - “Barbie”
- Mark Ruffalo - “Poor Things”
Will Win
- Robert Downey Jr. - “Oppenheimer”
Should Win
- Ryan Gosling - “Barbie”
This is another category that is also actually kinda over. The difference between this category and the supporting actress category is that people thought this would be an intense race. Ryan Gosling was expecting to rack up a few wins and make this a suspenseful Oscar moment. But then Robert Downey Jr. simply just won everything. So he’s going to win the Oscar. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Ryan Gosling got his name called, but neither actor has an Oscar win yet and this year just seems like it’s RDJ’s year. He’s been waiting longer for this and sometimes that’s just how it goes. Again, for me I don’t personally take that into consideration. I just go my favorite performance. And I thought about this one for a long time, but I do think I liked Ryan Gosling a bit more and I do think it would bring me more joy to see him win, given how great he was as Ken. But I have no problem with an RDJ win. Everyone loves him, me included.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominations
- Annette Bening - “Nyad”
- Lily Gladstone - “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- Sandra Hüller - “Anatomy of a Fall”
- Carey Mulligan - “Maestro”
- Emma Stone - “Poor Things”
Will Win
- Lily Gladstone - “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Should Win
- Lily Gladstone - “Killers of the Flower Moon”
In regards to the acting categories, this one is the most intense of the night. Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone have been battling all season for this award and I don’t really know whose name will be read. I wouldn’t be surprised at either. I’m going with the SAG winner, though. And that was Lily. And based on me watching these other award shows, it appears that no one would be happier with a Lily win than Emma. Just watch her reactions to Lily winning. And it’s a win that I decided that I do want to happen. I don’t know all the statistics with Native American actors and awards, but if it’s happened, it hasn’t happened very much. And I don’t know if it’s happened in this particular category. So it’s good history to happen. I also simply just loved her subtle performance. There was no big moment in the movie where you’d say “That’s her Oscar clip.” But she outshined everyone in that movie, Leo and de Niro included, mostly with her expressions and non-verbal acting. My personal second choice that I was debating between was her and Annette Bening. Emma was great, too. But if you couldn’t tell, I really enjoyed “Nyad.” Annette Bening and Jodie Foster were both excellent.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominations
- Bradley Cooper - “Maestro”
- Colman Domingo - “Rustin”
- Paul Giamatti - “The Holdovers”
- Cillian Murphy - “Oppenheimer”
- Jeffrey Wright - “American Fiction”
Will Win
- Cillian Murphy - “Oppenheimer”
Should Win
- Cillian Murphy - “Oppenheimer”
Lead actor has been on quite the roller coaster this season. I got out of “Oppenheimer” thinking that Cillian Murphy NEEDS to win the Oscar. It was the performance of the year for me from an actor that I’ve loved for a long time now that I’ve been waiting for him to get his due. When the season began, people thought that Bradley Cooper was going to have his year to finally win. Then Paul Giamatti started to win awards, leading people to think it was his year. And although I imagine vote tallies will be close in this, Cillian ended up getting the wins that he needed, specifically at SAG, that makes it feel like this race is now done. I wouldn’t be totally surprised to hear Paul Giamatti be called. It would be a great win and he’ll give a wonderful speech. But I do like how things have seemingly settled on the right course of action. In the year of “Oppenheimer,” you can’t let it sweep the Oscars and NOT give the man who played Oppenheimer the award. He literally made the movie work.
Directing
Nominations
- Justine Triet - “Anatomy of a Fall”
- Martin Scorsese - “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- Christopher Nolan - “Oppenheimer”
- Yorgos Lanthimos - “Poor Things”
- Jonathan Glazer - “The Zone of Interest”
Will Win
- Christopher Nolan - “Oppenheimer”
Should Win
- Christopher Nolan - “Oppenheimer”
Speaking of people being annointed beforehand to win everything. Christopher Nolan is winning. And it’s about time, too. I’d argue he should’ve already won at least one for “Inception,” if not for something like “Memento” or “The Dark Knight” as well. The fact that he doesn’t have a win yet is crazy. And “Oppenheimer” is not just a career win. It’s a deserving win for one of his best movies. It’s going to happen. And we will all cheer. If Greta Gerwig had actually gotten in, maybe it would’ve been a harder personal choice for me. But yeah, give Nolan his Oscar.
Best Picture
Nominations
- “American Fiction” - Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers (Amazon MGM Studios)
- “Anatomy of a Fall” - Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers (Le Pacte)
- “Barbie” - David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers (Warner Bros.)
- “The Holdovers” - Mark Johnson, Producer (Focus Features)
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers (Paramount Pictures & Apple Original Films)
- “Maestro” - Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Krisstie Macosko Krieger, Producers (Netflix)
- “Oppenheimer” - Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers (Universal Pictures)
- “Past Lives” - David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Palema Koffler, Producers (A24)
- “Poor Things” - Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers (Searchlight Pictures)
- “The Zone of Interest” - James Wilson, Producer (A24)
Will Win
- “Oppenheimer” - Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers (Universal Pictures)
Should Win
- “Barbie” - David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers (Warner Bros.)
Most years there is a certain level of suspense going into the final award of the night. Even last year with “Everything Everywhere” looking like it would take the win, there was still a certain level of uncertainty. But not here. The biggest award of the night might be the easiest one to predict. I don’t even know what the upset would be. Maybe “Poor Things”? But this is ranked choice and oftentimes it means I overthink this, but in this case I think that doesn’t even matter because I don’t know how many people dislike “Oppenheimer.” I’m sure it’s top three on most ballots. And it’s a great win. I ranked all of the best picture nominees. Head over to my Letterboxd to see that list. “Barbie” is my favorite of the nominees. “Past Lives” is my second choice, actually. But then “Oppenheimer” is third. And all three made my year-end list of favorite movies, along with “Anatomy of a Fall” and “Killers of the Flower Moon.” So it’s a great year for this category.
But yeah, that means I have “Oppenheimer” going home with eight Oscars, followed by “Poor Things” with three and “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Barbie,” “The Holdovers,” “American Fiction,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest” all getting one each. Of the best picture nominees, I have “Maestro” and “Past Lives” going home empty. “Maestro” going home empty and “Barbie” only getting one feels wrong. But I don’t know what to change at this point, so I’m not. I’ll take the L on that, wherever it is.
Agree? Disagree? Let me know what your thoughts on this ceremony is, especially if you’re one who made it this far on this post.
No comments:
Post a Comment