Movie Preview: January 2020

Most recently on this blog I published my large preview of the entire 2020 year in film. And now it's time to turn right around and look specifically at the month of January, which is, historically speaking, not the best month of the year when it comes to quality films. As seen in my 2020 movie preview, this January seems to be especially rotten. However, now is not the time to scrutinize the quality here, but rather to provide a slightly more objective overlook at the schedule as a whole, especially since it's not all bad. While, yes, January is often seen as a dumping ground for films that studios don't care as much about as its not the most optimal time of the year for various reasons. But it's also a month where holiday holdovers are still playing strong as well as a month where awards seasons contenders that opened in limited release in December expand nationwide to take advantage of the less crowded market and the awards season attention. So all of this means that, regardless of what the quality here may be, there's still plenty to talk about. And in terms of the box office potential here, it looks like it could be a fairly healthy month, even though it doesn't look like it has the firepower to break any January records. With all that said, let's dive in and explore.

January 3rd - 5th-

As was expected, the first weekend of January was dominated by holiday holdovers with “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” and “Jumanji: The Next Level” taking the top two spots, followed by "Little Women" and "Frozen 2." It wasn't until fifth place that we saw this weekend's lone new wide release, the 2020 reboot of The Grudge, which may or may not take place somewhere in the same timeline as the other movies in the franchise as opposed to being a straight-up remake. Loaded with jump scares and generic horror images, it's been essentially labeled as the dictionary definition of a throwaway January horror film made only for those involved to earn a few bucks. For those that did go see it, whatever it is that they were expecting, they certainly didn't get it as the movie earned a rare F on Cinemascore, which in turn makes its 16 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes feel a bit generous. But in terms of its financial prospects, it's on track to earn a fine profit as it opened to $11.4 million on a $10 million budget. Given the bitter negative reaction, this is certain to disappear rather quickly from theaters. Even though it might turn a profit, it likely won't inspire additional sequels as this total is less than a third of 2004's "The Grudge," which opened to $39.1 million.

January 10th - 12th- 

The second weekend of January has two new wide releases, but before we get to those, there are two movies that have been in limited release since Christmas that will be expanding nationwide this weekend. The first of those to is 1917. Fresh of its big win at the Golden Globes for best picture (drama), “1917” has a lot of momentum right now as the buzz has been high due to excellent reviews since opening in limited release on Christmas. Universal has also had a fairly aggressive marketing campaign that is now going to combine with awards season buzz that should help it open big this weekend. With the Oscar nominations being announced on Monday, January 13, followed by the ceremony taking place on February 9, “1917” has the potential to ride that wave to a very strong performance throughout January and February. The movie itself is a World War I epic that follows the story of two young British soldiers who are given a mission to deliver a certain message. What separates this from other war films is that the movie was shot in a way to give the illusion that it was all filmed in one shot, like Hitchcock’s “The Rope” or 2014’s “Birdman.” The movie is directed by Sam Mendes and stars Colin Firth, Richard Madden, Andrew Scott and Benedict Cumberbatch.

The second movie expanding into wide release this weekend is Just Mercy. While this movie doesn’t have quite the same level of buzz as “1917,” this is a movie directed by Destin Daniel Cretton who has directed movies such as “Short Term 12” in 2013 and “The Glass Castle” in 2017. He’s also been hired by Marvel to direct the upcoming 2021 film “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.” “Just Mercy” is a movie that stars Michael B. Jordan and Jamie Foxx and tells the true story of Walter McMillian who, with the help of his defense attorney Bryan Stevenson, appeals his murder conviction. McMillain is played by Jamie Foxx while Stevenson is played by Michael B. Jordan. The movie is based on the memoir of the same name written by Stevenson. As far as awards consideration goes, Jamie Foxx is the one getting the most buzz for best supporting actor, but outside him, the movie isn’t getting nearly as much awards buzz as “1917,” but it is riding a wave of strong reviews which could help it to have a decent box office total. While “1917” is looking at a weekend of at least $20 million (and possibly a lot more), “Just Mercy” could get close to $10 million. Last January the movie "On the Basis of Sex," in a similar position as "Just Mercy," expanded to $6.1 million.

Now onto the two movies hitting wide release and there's not really a guarantee for any success for either of, but the movie with the most potential of the two is Like a Boss. This stars Tiffany Haddish, Rose Byrn and Salma Hayek in a raunchy comedy about two friends wanting to start a beauty company together. That level of star power might be enough to make this a sleeper hit, especially when it comes to Tiffany Haddish, who has had a great track record in the last few years since her breakout role in "Girl's Trip." The movie might also benefit for there not being many adult targeted comedies in theaters recently. However, it's worth noting that there were a lot of comedies in 2019 that had a bit of a rough go of it. "Long Shot" ($9.7 million), "Stuber" ($8.2 million) and "Booksmart" ($6.9 million) are three examples that rode star power and/or good reviews to an opening weekend that failed to hit $10 million. If awareness for "Like a Boss" or excitement level is not super high, this could wind up as a January dud that is quickly forgotten about. On a slightly more positive note, while this won't hit the top tier Tiffany Haddish level, this could play similar to her 2018 film "Nobody's Fool" ($13.7 million) or 2015's "Hot Pursuit" ($13.9 million).

Of all the releases this weekend, new or expanded, the one that seems to have the least amount of potential at this point is Underwater. As the slightly uncreative title suggests, this movie is about a team of researchers who are working... underwater... when some sort of earthquake does significant damage to their laboratory, causing them to go on a side quest to figure out what's going on. And although the trailers don't reveal exactly what's wreaking havoc around them, the vibe given off is that this is a potential creature feature. The cast of this has a few big names in Kristen Stewart and TJ Miller, although the rest of them are fairly unknown, while director William Eubank has only directed one theatrically released film in 2014, called "The Signal," and that didn't even crack $1 million domestically in its entire run. So that doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. If "Underwater" is indeed a terror in the water horror film, then the comparisons from last year are "Crawl" ($12 million) and "47 Meters Down: Uncaged" ($8.4 million). And even, predicting that "Underwater" hits those levels might be a big generous. In the Kristen Stewart realm, last year's "Charlie's Angles" also hit $8.4 million.

January 17th - 20th-

The third weekend of January will be followed by Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday the 20th, giving us a four-day holiday weekend that is often the most lucrative weekend of January. This should inspire good holdover business from the films already in the market, but it also has two major releases that will be competing for the top spot and the first of those two is Dolittle. The origins of "Dr. Dolittle" spans back 100 years now with the original series of children's books that started being published in 1920 by author Hugh Lofting. There were 15 books published between 1920 and 1952. And said stories are now on their third film adaptation, with Rex Harrison portraying the doctor in 1967, Eddie Murphy in 1998 and now Robert Downey Jr. in 2020. Of note, the Eddie Murphy movie spawned four sequels, with Eddie Murphy reprising his role in the 2001 sequel while the last three were direct-to-video sequels without Murphy. That makes "Dolittle" the seventh Dr. Dolittle movie. Thus the recognizable source material combined with the star power of Robert Downey Jr and a huge list of voice actors doing all the animals will definitely help this perform well. Although how high this gets will ultimately be determined by reaction from the target audience.

For those of you who paid attention in my 2020 yearly movie preview, you may remember that one of the themes of 2020 will be belated sequels to franchises previously thought to be long over. That trend begins right here in January with our other big film of the weekend, Bad Boys for Life. Now it could end up being an interesting race at the box office to determine which of these movies will open out on top, but the two can certainly coexist with their target audiences being the exact opposite. "Bad Boys" was released in 1995 with the sequel opening in 2003. Both movies were directed by Michael Bay and both movies got panned by critics. Despite that, audiences didn't care what critics had to say as both were huge hits, making $65.6 million and $138.5 million total respectively. Adjusted for ticket price inflation, those totals jump up to $137.5 million and $209.3 million. With that level of success, it's surprising that they waited 17 years to do another one of these, which very well may result in the demand for this not being quite as high, despite the return of both lead stars, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence. Thus a potential comparison here might be to last year's "Men in Black International," which only opened to $30 million, despite previous entries being huge hits. 

January 24th - 26th-

The fourth weekend of January is a rather crowded one in terms of the number of titles being released, but this might be a classic January situation where a lot of titles are just dumped onto the schedule without much potential to perform well. That means whichever movie wins the "Dolittle" vs. "Bad Boys for Life" battle has a chance to repeat here. Unless The Gentlemen is somehow able to gain breakout status. This movie comes to us via Guy Ritchie who has been very busy lately adapting well known property into film, with last year's "Aladdin" as well as "King Arthur" in 2017 and "The Man from U.N.C.L.E." in 2015. In fact, with his two Sherlock Holmes movies preceding those titles, it's been a while since Guy Ritchie did a true Guy Ritchie film, like "Snatch" or "Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels." Yet "The Gentlemen" looks like it's just that. Guy Ritchie taking a break from the big stuff to do something small that he wants to do. The movie is about a British drug lord trying to sell off his highly profitable empire to a dynasty of billionaires. The movie was released in the U.K. on January 1 and so far the word from across the pond is fairly positive. If the movie connects with its adult male target audience, this could sneak close to $20 million on the weekend.

The other potential breakout of the weekend is the third January horror film of the month, The Turning. The reason why this one has potential is that it's based on the 1898 horror novella "The Turn of the Screw." If you combine film and television, that story has been adapted well over 10 times, meaning the story is fairly popular. This latest adaptation has Steven Spielberg on as executive producer with Floria Sigismondi directing, who has most notably directed episodes of shows like "The Handmaid's Tale," "American Gods" and "Daredevil." So there's talent behind the camera here. There's also talent in front of the camera with Mackenzie Davis, Finn Wolfhard and Brooklyn Prince starring. But all that talent is not necessarily guaranteed to produce a quality film. Just ask people involved in 2018's "Winchester" what a talented cast and crew, as well as an excellent premise, did for their movie. That movie only opened to $9.8 million following a string of toxic reviews. With "The Turning," creepy mansion, large property and mysterious kids has all the workings of something belonging in January, so this might need positive reviews to actually do well.

Next on the list are a pair of movies whose potential don't seem very high at all. We'll start here with The Last Full Measure. On paper this sounds like it could be a big hit, at least in the indie realm. It stars Christopher Plummer, Samuel L. Jackson, William Hurt, Sebastian Stan and Ed Harris and is another war drama. Specifically it tells the true story of Vietnam War hero William Pitsenbarger, who personally saved over 60 men during Operation Abilene in the war. Pitsenbarger was offered the chance to leave on a helicopter, but chose to stay behind to help more people. The narrative of this movie seems to be focusing mainly on the potential conspiracy behind with Pitsenbarger wasn't awarded the medal of honor. Sebastian Stan in the movie plays a Pentagon staffer who is out to get justice for Pitsenbarger. So yeah, this sounds good enough to be a hit, or at least become well liked by people wanting another war drama. But Roadside Attractions conspicuously leaving this in January is worrisome, as is the presence of "1917," which is likely to attract the majority of audiences wanting a war film. Thus, while the box office potential here is minimal, if reviews are positive, this could be a movie that finds a life after its theatrical run with an older audience who enjoy war films.

Surprise! The final movie of this weekend is yet another horror film. Or, well, thriller in this case. It's a movie called Run. First thing's first, what this movie has going for it is that it comes from director Aneesh Chaganty, who directed the 2018 sleeper hit "Searching." Those who enjoyed that film might be curious to see what he's doing next. "Run" is a movie that stars Sarah Paulson and Keira Allen and is about a home schooled teenager who begins to suspect that her mother is keeping a dark secret from her. Those are the ingredients of a successful film. "Searching" rode positive buzz from Sundance to a $6.1 million opening weekend in August 2018, finishing with $26 million. It wouldn't be too hard for "Run" to at least replicate that opening weekend with the proper promotion. But that's the thing. Yours truly is having a hard time believing that this movie is actually being released on this date. A trailer seems to be M.I.A., both from YouTube and IMDb, while I've seen no promotion of any sorts. Yet I include it here because both The-Numbers and Boxoffice Pro claim this is being released by Lionsgate this weekend. I suppose we'll see what happens when this weekend gets here. At the very least, look for this to be released at some point during 2020.

January 31st - February 2nd-

The final weekend of January, which takes place mostly in February is cinematic suicide for new releases due to Sunday, February 2 being the Super Bowl. Yet there's two movies that are attempting the feat anyways and I'm not sure if either one even has the potential to dethrone whatever ends up No. 1 in the previous two weeks. Of the two, the movie I'm choosing to talk about first is Gretel & Hansel. This is actually not the first time an offbeat Hansel & Gretel adaptation ended of January. With this, I'm thinking about 2013's "Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters," which starred Jeremy Renner and Gemma Arterton as adult versions of the characters in a more action-focused film. "Gretel & Hansel" thinks its being rather clever by switching around the title to include Gretel first. The trailer is also rather amusing as it appears it thinks its being unique by turning the classic tale into a dark, creepy horror film. The reason that's amusing is because the original Brothers Grimm fairy tale is already quite dark. Anyways, with the recognizable property here, and a PG-13 rating, this has the potential to trick a few teenagers to go see. The cast and crew here is mostly unrecognizable, which doesn't help. The one exception to that is Sophia Lillis of "IT" fame playing Gretel.

The next movie braving the Super Bowl is The Rhythm Section, which is a revenge thriller of sorts wherein Blake Lively stars as a woman who seeks to uncover the truth behind a plane crash that killed her family, a flight that she was supposed to be on. To figure this out, she goes undercover as an assassin. With this being an action spy thriller, the Super Bowl is probably not the best weekend for this to come out on as that's typically a male heavy genre. Although it's worth noting that one of the movies to successfully brave the Super Bowl was 2009's "Taken," which opened to $24 million and was also an action thriller with the main character out for revenge due to family being wronged. So this could work. And teaming Blake Lively with Jude Law provides for a recognizable cast that could help. However, instead of comparing this to "Taken," some more recent comparisons might be to last year's "Anna," which opened to $3.6 million, or a pair of 2018 films, "Proud Mary" and "Peppermint," which opened to $9.9 million and $13.4 million respectively. The three of those movies are also female-led action thrillers. The three different box office totals suggest a potential range. Of note, "Proud Mary" might be the best comparison with it being a fellow January release.