Movie Preview: June 2022

It’s beginning to feel like normal at the box office. Sure, it’s felt like that for several months now, so this is not necessarily breaking news, but the first month of our first traditional summer movie season since 2019 definitely lived up to the hype and that’s quite refreshing. The month was bookended by two massive $100 million openings as “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” started the month off with a $187 million opening weekend, while “Top Gun: Maverick” finished the month off with a $160 million debut over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend. The latter was a new Memorial Day weekend record while the former shows the box office prowess of Marvel as that was only the seventh highest opening for an MCU film. 

June is already here and so technically this is a weekend late, but yours truly got a bit tied up in things and didn’t get this out on time. Although in this instance I don’t feel too bad as there weren’t any new wide releases in the first weekend of June. And that there is a tad bit reflective of how the June box office looks. Not a whole lot in terms of quantity, but two more massive summer blockbusters that most studios are staying clear of. 

As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com. The movies listed are the ones currently scheduled for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are subject to change.

June 3 – 5

Neon's "Crimes of the Future"

As mentioned, there weren’t any new wide releases this weekend. And by wide in this instance, I mean movies that opened in at least 1,000 theaters. Neon released the new David Cronenberg movie Crimes of the Future in 773 theaters, while IFC Midnight released the psychological thriller Watcher in 764 theaters. The two movies placed 9th and 10th at the weekend box office, pulling in $1.1 million and $826,775 respectively. Among the fans of indie filmmaking, a new Cronenberg film was definitely the buzz of the weekend. He’s most notable for his body horror films and is often seen as one of the originators of the subgenre. Perhaps his most well-known film is the 1986 remake of “The Fly,” but Cronenberg fans have been raving about his work for six decades now and they haven’t had anything since 2014, which is another reason why “Crimes of the Future” is a bit of a big deal.

The real storyline of this weekend, though, was “Top Gun: Maverick” yet again. After breaking the Memorial Day weekend record, previously held by the third Pirates of the Caribbean movie way back in 2007, it set another record in its second weekend. The smallest drop ever for a movie to open north of $100 million. If I were to post this before the weekend, I would’ve taken an educated guess of about $60-70 million for weekend 2. That would’ve been a very normal and healthy 50 percent drop. But instead it scored $90 million, a drop of just 29 percent from its 3-day opening of $126.7 million. For perspective, there have now been 71 movies to open north of $100 million. Of those 71, prior to “Maverick,” only three had dropped less than 40 percent: 2002’s “Spider-Man” (38 percent), 2004’s “Shrek 2” (33 percent), and 2019’s “Frozen 2” (33 percent). As you can see, “Maverick” is now alone as the only to drop less than 30 percent after opening above $100 million. And that specific stat is a development since the weekend estimates on Sunday, which had it at a 32 percent drop. What this really goes to show is how insanely strong the word of mouth is on this film. It’s more than just a hit. It’s become a global phenomenon and should continue to do well over the whole summer despite some… Jurassic competition in its third weekend coming up.

June 10 – 12

Universal’s "Jurassic World: Dominion"

Yes, as noted in that purposely bad pun in the end of that last paragraph, while Tom Cruise continues to soar high, dinosaurs will be taking over the world in the third and final entry in the Jurassic World franchise, Jurassic World: Dominion. I don’t need to educate anyone on the history of the Jurassic franchise as a whole. Everyone and their dog is very well aware that “Jurassic Park” is a thing that exists. In fact, that movie is so well-loved that it has now spawned five sequels over the course of the last 25 years and audiences have continued to show up in droves despite each ensuing entry having less than stellar reaction. The Jurassic World movies specifically have proven very critic proof. “Jurassic World” only scored a 71 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes and its sequel, “Fallen Kingdom” fell negative at 47 percent. Yet nostalgia pushed “Jurassic World” in 2015 to a then opening weekend record of $208.8 million, topping 2012’s “The Avengers.” That only lasted a few months until “The Force Awakens” came out, but it’s still notable that it held that prestigious record for a period of time. And despite the aforementioned negative reviews from both critics and audiences, “Fallen Kingdom” still managed an opening of $148 million, with a finish of $417 million domestically and $1.3 billion worldwide. Not bad for a fairly divisive film.

So what does all of that mean for “Dominion”? One could look at the previous Jurassic Park trilogy and note that each movie had diminishing returns. Mixed reviews held “Lost World” back from topping the original, while “Jurassic Park III” plummeted even more. However, I think it’s quite possible that “Dominion” reverses course and improves upon “Fallen Kingdom.” For one, “Dominion” is advertising itself as the final movie in the franchise. Whether or not that will remain true is up for debate, but that has often been a successful marketing ploy. Fans of a popular franchise will typically show up if they think it could be the last hurrah. Also, director Colin Trevorrow has long since said he wanted to make a movie where dinosaurs run free across the whole Earth instead of just it being an isolated incident on one island. And “Dominion” is just that. That premise could be intriguing enough for people to show up, even if they didn’t like one or both of the Jurassic World movies. And finally, Sam Neill, Jeff Goldblum, and Laura Dern are all reprising their roles from the original “Jurassic Park,” teaming up with Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard from the two Jurassic World movies, which makes this a Jurassic reunion that could also attract any fence sitters. Box Office Pro projected $180 million in their last long range forecast, but this could realistically fall anywhere on the spectrum of $150-200 million. In other words, anywhere in between the previous two.

A Jurassic movie requires a Jurassic analysis, especially with a limited number of releases this month, but there is another movie that is theoretically getting released this weekend and that’s a movie called Block Party. The poster claims that this is the first ever Juneteenth family comedy. I’ll let you decide what exactly that means and whether or not it’s accurate. Juneteenth is, of course, on June 19th, so this is targeted as a family comedy leading up to that now federally recognized holiday (as of last year). But I don’t know if awareness is high. For a movie that’s supposed to come out this week, and actually on Wednesday the 8th, an internet search will lead you to other things and I couldn’t find a trailer that had more than a couple of thousand views. Said trailer did say it’s coming in theaters on June 8th and on BET+ on June 16th, which typically reflects a smaller theatrical release, but the-numbers.com does list this as a wide release. Whether or not that’s a wide release of more than 1,000 theaters or a release in about 500-700 theaters is something that we’ll find out here in a few days. My guess is the latter. At most. But we might find that out even before some of you read this. 

June 17 – 19

Pixar’s "Lightyear"

The second massive blockbuster of the month that I referred to at the beginning of this post is Pixar’s Lightyear. As crazy as it may seem, this is the first Pixar movie to get a theatrical release since before the pandemic. “Onward” was their most recent one to get the theatrical treatment and that had the unfortunate timing of getting its run cut short by the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. Since then, Disney has released both “Raya” and “Encanto” in theaters from their own animation studio, but Pixar has gotten the shaft, with “Soul,” “Luca” and this year’s “Turning Red” all going straight to Disney+. One can attribute it to Disney running out of patience and not wanting to continue to postpone their entire release, but whatever the case be, Pixar finally gets to have a traditional release and there’s no better way to get back on track in that manner than to have another movie in the Toy Story realm. In fact, “Toy Story 4” was the last Pixar movie to get released in theaters that wasn’t impacted by the pandemic, that back in Summer 2019, so it’s a bit poetic, you might say.

Now what this movie is has probably been the biggest point of confusion. It’s not a Toy Story sequel and only kinda a spin-off of the franchise. And it’s not really a prequel or Buzz Lightyear origin story, either. It’s the movie inside the Toy Story realm that Buzz Lightyear was based off of. And the easiest way to simplify that is to say it’s the movie that Andy and his Mom could’ve potentially gone to that could’ve resulted in Andy getting his own Buzz Lightyear toy in the original Toy Story, which is why Chris Evans is voicing Buzz instead of Tim Allen. And that’s a bit of an outside-the-box idea for Pixar, but reaction to the trailers has been very positive and people have proven multiple times over that if you say Toy Story, they are showing up. Even if they’re skeptic of the movie being necessary (“Toy Story 4”). To me that says they’re showing up again for “Lightyear,” even if they’re confused about what the movie is. “Toy Story 3” and “Toy Story 4” both opened above $100 million. I think “Lightyear” could do so as well, especially if reviews end up positive. And very early whispers suggest they will be.

June 24 – 26

Warner Bros.' "Elvis"

The final weekend of June has a big chance of being won by “Lightyear,” but there are two movies that will enter into the race, both of which have at least some breakout potential. Either could theoretically be the bigger of the two, but the one with the highest ceiling is Elvis, the latest in a long string of musical biopics. Starring as the King himself will be Austin Butler, who is not a complete newcomer, but this will certainly be his huge breakout role. Early reaction out of Cannes Film Festival gives his performance very high praise, with mixed but positive leaning reaction towards the rest of the movie. The movie also has director Baz Luhrmann coming out of hiding with his first directed film since “The Great Gatsby” in 2013. Luhrmann has a distinct and somewhat divisive style, but also has a very short discography and he’s very selective with his film choices, which always makes a new film from a bit of an event.

There are many potential directions that “Elvis” can take and lots to compare it to. Obviously Mr. Presley was one of the biggest music stars ever, but will that translate into box office success in the way that a “Bohemian Rhapsody” did? That opened to $51.1 million and held incredibly well, finishing with $216.3 million domestically and almost $900 million worldwide. But yet it also played during the holiday season at the end of the year. Perhaps a more comparable film will be “Rocketman,” which came out six months later in May 2019, opening with $25.7 million and finishing with $96.3 million domestically. That also had a summer release, a popular star in Elton John, and mostly positive reviews. Yet there is also the chance of a performance like “RESPECT” from last year, which, despite having Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin, only managed an $8.8 million opening and a $24.3 million total. Has fatigue set in with these musical biopics or are audiences ready to rock with Elvis?

The other film coming in is the horror film The Black Phone. Horror films are even harder to predict. They can range from completely dead on arrival to a breakout smash. The premise here is that a 13-year-old boy gets abducted by a child killer and starts receiving phone calls from the killer’s previous victims on a disconnected phone. The elephant in the room is that maybe some might not be interested in such a premise after the recent shooting at an elementary school in Texas. If that’s not an issue, another obstacle is that Jordan Peele’s “Nope” comes out just a few weeks later in July. Some horror fans might simply wait for that one. If neither of those things ends up as an issue, the positive things going for this movie is great response from the trailers as well as positive reviews out of Fantastic Fest last year when the movie premiered. It’s also directed by Scott Derrickson, who directed the first “Doctor Strange” and was set to direct the sequel from last month before dropping out. Before his Marvel turn, Derrickson was known for his horror films such as “Sinister,” “Deliver Us from Evil” and “The Exorcism of Emily Rose,” so he’s going back to his roots with this film. Could that lead to an upset finish over “Elvis”? I’m not betting on it right now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened.