What went wrong this month? Well, there’s probably not just one answer. I often mention that too many high profile releases at the same time can end up cannibalizing each other. And that’s certainly a possible part of the equation. But in each case with the so far mentioned releases, the movies were part of bigger franchises with less than stellar reputations. Combine that with mixed reaction on the movies themselves and you have an unfortunate formula for disappointment.
The obvious omission so far is that of “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” which was the lone bright spot of the month. It opened to $120 million and has legged out to over $330 million domestically so far, putting it on track for the highest grossing movie of the summer. The difference? Well, people loved “Into the Spider-Verse,” were excited for “Across the Spider-Verse,” and were very pleased with the result as the movie had very high marks across the board. Moral of the story, make a good movie that people want to see and people will go see it. Transition that into our upcoming July slate and the initial prognosis is looking very positive, although we’ll obviously have to wait until the movies come out to see the exact reaction, but let’s take a look at what we have on the schedule!
As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of boxofficepro.com and the-numbers.com. The movies scheduled are the ones currently listed for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are subject to change.
July 7 – 9
This first weekend of July will see the second weekend of “Dial
of Destiny” pull in around $25-30 million, which could make this a close race
for No. 1, given the current projections of our three new films. And while
there is a major studio film on the schedule that we’ll get to in a second, the
potential spoiler comes from Angel Studios with their new film Sound
of Freedom. Angel Studios is a Utah-based distribution company most
well-known for the TV series “The Chosen,” of which they’ve actually had major
success with in releasing certain episodes in theaters. “Sound of Freedom”
tells the story of Tim Ballard, who quit his job as a government agent in order
to dedicate his life to rescuing children from child sex trafficking, with the
specific mission portrayed in this film taking place primarily in Colombia. Jim
Caviezel plays Tim Ballard and the movie is directed by Alejandro Monteverde.
As far as its box office potential goes, the movie actually opened on July 4 in
2,634 theaters and actually beat “Dial of Destiny” on that day with an opening
day total of $14.2 million, compared to Indy’s $11.7 million. Could that spill
over into the weekend, giving it a surprise upset at the top? It’s quite
possible. Although it should be mentioned that both Monday previews and a certain
total from a pay-it forward campaign were rolled into that $14.2 million, so
that could indicate a bit of frontloading. But so far word of mouth is very
positive with an A+ CinemaScore, an 8.6 score on IMDb, and a 99 percent Rotten
Tomatoes audience score. That should at least translate into a very healthy
theatrical run. 
Angel Studios' "Sound of Freedom"
The aforementioned major studio film getting released this weekend, that’s also in contention for the top spot is Sony Pictures’ Insidious: The Red Door. This is the fifth movie in the Insidious franchise, with the previous entry, “The Last Key,” having been released in 2018. So it’s been five years, which could be seen as too long of a break for a horror sequel, but nevertheless these are very low budget horror films made for $10 million or less that have in turn have come close to or made more than $100 million worldwide. So they’ve been very profitable. “The Red Door” is reported to have a budget of $16 million, the highest in the franchise, but that’s still a very low bar for profitability. The movie itself is actually a direct sequel to the second movie as the third and fourth movie followed a slightly different arc. The movie thus sees the return of Patrick Wilson and Rose Byrne as Josh and Renai Lambert as the main conflict centers around their son Dalton, now in college, having the demons from his past come back to haunt him. Ty Simpkins will also be reprising his role as Dalton. Patrick Wilson will actually be directing this movie in his directorial debut, with a story by Leigh Whannell, director of the third movie, and produced by James Wan, director of the first two movies.
Not to be forgotten, but also most likely looking at a fourth place debut, is the comedy Joy Ride. Although this is the second comedy of its nature to come out in three weeks, the other being Jennifer Lawrence’s “No Hard Feelings” on June 23, it’s nevertheless noteworthy the adult comedy has been much more rare than it has in the past, at least in terms of a theatrical release. Many of them have instead gone straight to streaming and found much success there. That means there should be a healthy market for “Joy Ride,” given that fans of the genre haven’t had much in terms of quantity. “Joy Ride” follows four Asian-American friends traveling in search of one of their birth mothers, with many shenanigans happening along the way. The movie is directed by Adele Lim, who was a part of the writing team for both “Crazy Rich Asians” and “Raya and the Last Dragons,” and stars Ashley Park, Sherry Cola, Stephanie Hsu, and Sabrina Wu as the four friends. Also helping the film out is the very strong initial reaction. The 91 percent Rotten Tomatoes score as of this post suggests that it’s a great crowd pleaser and that should help word of mouth. As a comparison, it’s fellow comedy “No Hard Feelings” opened to $15 million, although that was boosted by the star power of Jennifer Lawrence.
July 14 – 16
Opening on Wednesday, July 12, most likely in an effort to
keep as many IMAX screens as possible before Oppenheimer steals most of them
away, is the next major summer tentpole, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part
One. This is perhaps among the final wave of films that was
directly impacted by COVID. Word on the street early on was that this two part “Dead
Reckoning” story was to be filmed back-to-back, with Part One set for a July
2021 release and Part Two set for an August 2022 release. Filming for Part One
began in February 2020, which was obviously immediately cut short. Instead of
taking the route of rushing to film and release as soon as possible, the
production team took the route of “Top Gun: Maverick” in patiently waiting for
the right moment. Three years later, the movie is finally being released, with
Part Two currently scheduled for next summer. Patience is looking to pay off as
not only is this particular franchise continued to get more and more popular
over time, with the 2018 release of “Fallout” finding huge success, but “Dead
Reckoning” is also bound to get a bump due to the massive success of last year’s
aforementioned “Top Gun: Maverick,” which not only made $1.48 billion worldwide,
$718 million of that coming domestically, but was also a huge awards contender
after being universally praised by pretty much everyone. 
Paramount's "Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One"
“Dead Reckoning Part One” obviously sees Tom Cruise return as Ethan Hunt, but also sees Rebecca Ferguson, Vanessa Kirby, Ving Rhames, and Simon Pegg all return as well, with Hayley Atwell, Pom Klementieff, and Cary Elwes being among the new additions. Director Christopher McQuarrie, who directed both “Rogue Nation” and “Fallout,” is also returning as director for both Part One and Part Two. As for its box office comparison this weekend, “Rogue Nation” opened to $55.5 million in 2015, while “Fallout” opened to $61.2 million. So that’s the previous bar set by the franchise. How much will the massive success of “Top Gun: Maverick” boost that? “Maverick” opened to $126.7 million last year. “Dead Reckoning” is not likely to get that high, nor is it fair to expect it to replicate that movie’s success, but it should manage to open higher than “Fallout,” with the other note being that the Wednesday opening is likely to mute the traditional 3-day numbers, with it’s opening being spread out over those five days. All things noted, Box Office Pro has it pegged at a $65-75 million range for its opening. As of this posting, initial critical reactions have begun to come out and it is sitting at a very strong 98 percent on Rotten Tomatoes after 119 reviews. From the note to start this post, if you make a good movie, people will generally show up. And if audiences like this movie as much as critics are, then this is in for a very healthy run throughout the rest of the summer.
One other quick note on this weekend is that Crunchyroll will be releasing the anime film Pscyho-Pass Providence this weekend. These anime films are always a bit of a wildcard. Sometimes you’ll get a situation like “One Piece Film: Red” opening to $9.3 million in November 2022 or “Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village” opening to $10.1 million in March of this year. Other times will be like two of the other releases this year, “The Time That I Got Reincarnated as a Smile: Scarlet Bond” opening to $1.5 million from 1,473 theaters in January or “Sword Art Online” opening to $607,000 from 892 theaters in February. How popular is the “Psycho-Pass” anime? Well, the initial run had three seasons, beginning in 2012. It’s also had three movies released since then, none of which have had a domestic release. So “Providence” will be a first for the franchise in that manner as they celebrate the 10th anniversary. There’s also been a few mangas, novels, and video games. The release will obviously be overshadowed by “Dead Reckoning,” but its niche audience could show up as well.
July 21 – 23
The third weekend of the month has been potentially one of
the buzziest weekends of recent memory as two very different movies that can
most definitely coexist will go head to head in a fated duel. Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie”
vs. Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer.” The online chatter for this weekend has
been so strong that “Barbenheimer” t-shirts have been made and sold. The likely
winner of this epic duel? 
Warner Bros.' "Barbie" and Universal's "Oppenheimer"
You guessed it. Greta Gerwig’s live action adaptation of Barbie. It’s Barbie’s World and we’re all just living in it. As a writer and actress, Greta Gerwig has been around the indie scene for quite some time, going back to 2006. As a director, she came on strong with “Lady Bird” in 2017, which got five Oscar nominations. She followed that up in 2019 with her adaption of “Little Women,” which got six Oscar nominations. Both movies were nominated for best picture and screenplay, while Gerwig got a directing nomination for “Lady Bird.” So naturally it makes sense for her to follow that up by doing a live-action “Barbie” movie. But hey, when you’ve gained that much notoriety, you have more freedom in Hollywood to do what you want. And if Greta wants to do “Barbie,” then we let Greta do “Barbie.” She quite literally dragged her partner Noah Baumbach on against his will to help write, who himself has had quite the prestigious career with indie films such as “The Squid and the Whale,” “Frances Ha” and “Marriage Story.” The Hollywood power couple now combine their forces together to make the whole world excited to see a live-action Barbie movie.
Starring as Barbie in what might be the perfect casting choice is Margot Robbie, with Ryan Gosling co-starring as Ken. But there’s also a lot of other Barbies and Kens in the Barbie World, with Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, Hari Nef, Alexandra Shipp, Emma Mackey, Sharon Rooney, Dua Lipa, Nicola Coughlan, Ana Cruz Kayne, and Rita Arya being among the actresses playing different variations of Barbie, while Kingsley Ben-Adir, Simu Liu, Scott Evans, Ncuti Gatwa, and John Cena as different Kens. Not that one needs a plot for a Barbie movie, but the plot sees Margot’s Barbie suffering an existential crisis where she journey’s into the human world with Gosling’s Ken to learn what “real life” is like. That world has Will Ferrell as the CEO of Mattel and America Ferrera as a Mattel employee named Gloria who helps Barbie and Ken. Helen Mirren is the narrator of the movie. So yeah, everyone in Hollywood got on board for “Barbie.” Given how unique this movie is, there’s not really a direct box office comparison, but Box Office Pro currently has it opening in the $65-90 million range. If the response to this movie is as great as the advertising is leading people to believe, that could be even higher. I’ve seen projections as high as $80-100 million from different sources. So this is set to be quite the event.
Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer is certainly not going to be left completely in the dust, though. The movie stars Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer, an American theoretical physicist who is often credited as the father of the atomic bomb. The movie is telling his story of the role he had in developing these nuclear weapons that of course were used later in August 1945 in the bombing of the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II. This movie seemingly has Christopher Nolan moving away from his huge, mainstream blockbusters like “Inception,” “Interstellar,” and “Tenet” and at least temporarily going back to his roots when he did movies like “Memento” and “Insomnia,” movies that are more psychologically grounded and adult-targeted. In fact, it’s his first R-rated film he’s directed since “Insomnia” back in 2002. That combined with the three-hour run time and the heavy subject matter will likely make this less of a huge summer opening and more of a long-term play with excellent staying power, assuming that the response to the film is positive. “Barbie” is likely to win the weekend, but “Oppenheimer” is likely to have the last laugh when all is said and done, especially if it manages to be a huge awards player. That said, Box Office Pro still has it opening in the $45-57 million range, which would put it in the realm of Nolan’s last non-COVID release, that being the $50.5 million opening of “Dunkirk” in July 2017. In fact, also in that range, “Interstellar” opened to $47.5 million in November 2014, while “Inception” opened to $62.8 million in July 2010. “Tenet” only opened to $20 million, but that was during COVID in September 2020, perhaps an unwise choice in hindsight.
July 28 – 30
After what is certainly poised to be a grand, epic weekend,
with the winner likely to take a second weekend crown in this final week, Disney
is nevertheless entering themselves into the ring with their remake of Haunted
Mansion. The first “Haunted Mansion” came out in 2003 and was a
decent hit that year. Starring Eddie Murphy it opened to $24.3 million,
finishing with $75.8 million domestically and $155.8 million worldwide on a
reported $90 million budget. While this 2023 movie is essentially a remake of
that movie, it’s probably more accurately described as a second adaptation of
the popular Disney theme park attraction, located at Disneyland, Disney World,
and Tokyo Disneyland. Movies based on rides don’t always work out, but it
certainly did with “Pirates of the Caribbean” and every once in a while Disney
attempts to see if they can replicate that success with other ride to movie
adaptations. This certainly has the elements to work as a more family oriented
horror/comedy. The haunted house subgenre of horror has existed ever since
horror has existed, essentially. So it’s not too crazy of a stretch. The movie
is directed by Justin Simien and has a cast that’s headlined by LaKeith
Stanfield, Tiffany Haddish, Owen Wilson, Danny DeVito, and Rosario Dawson. The
biggest question is why was this not released closer to Halloween instead of in
the middle of the summer? It’s projected to earn around the same as the 2003
movie in its opening, which probably wouldn’t be considered a success given
that we’re 20 years later. You would think that a September or October release
would’ve given it a boost as opposed to being in the shadow of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer.”
Disney's "Haunted Mansion"
That’s mostly it for the weekend, and the month for that matter. But there is two other smaller films scheduled for a wide release on this weekend worth quickly mentioned. One of them is actually another horror film, that being A24’s Talk to Me. Although this is probably the opposite of “Haunted Mansion” as it’s an adult-targeted supernatural horror film that’s most definitely not for families. The movie follows a group of friends who discover how to conjure spirits using a certain embalmed hand. You grab the hand and say “talk to me.” Given the genre, this of course goes from a fun thrill to a deadly threat. While this sounds like things we’ve seen before, the movie had its debut already, initially at the Adelaide Film Festival in Australia in October 2022, given that Australia is its country of origin, then at both the Sundance Film Festival and South by Southwest Film Festival in January and March of this year, respectively. And the reaction has been very positive. After 62 reviews, it has a 97 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. The movie was directed by Danny and Michael Philippou, two brothers who run the RackaRacka YouTube channel. Best case scenario would be an opening like last year’s “Smile” or “The Black Phone,” both of which opened just over $20 million. But that would depend on how heavy A24 decides to push their campaign and how wide they actually release it.
The other smaller release is another anime film, this time
being GKIDS’ release of The First Slam Dunk. See my
comments above on “Psycho-Pass Providence” on how anime can be a wild card at
the domestic box office. Another comparison in this instance might be the movie
“Suzume” from this April, which had already made over $300 million at the
international box office before then opening to $5 million here domestically. I
mention that because “The First Slam Dunk” is a movie that’s already made $262
million at the international box office, most of that coming from China, Japan,
and South Korea beginning at the end of last year. It also won the Japan
Academy Prize for Animation of the year. So its domestic launch is irrelevant.
But nevertheless it’s an anime sports film based on the “Slam Dunk” manga that
ran from 1990 to 1996. It follows the Shohoku High School basketball team
challenging the inter-high basketball champions, the Sannoh School. Central to
the story is the character named Ryota Miyagi, the point guard of the team
whose older brother of three years inspired him to play basketball.
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