Nope. My general conclusion last month was that if you make a movie that people are excited about, that also gets great reaction, then people will show up. Maybe people just people weren’t that interested in “The Flash,” “Transformers” and “Indiana Jones.” Each of those were part of long-winded franchises that hadn’t had a great entry in quite some time, which would explain their disappointing performances. Compare that to “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” two movies that were highly anticipated by audiences that both got great response from critics and audiences alike, and you have a great formula for success. It’s, of course, a very positive added bonus that the combined release date created the unique Barbenheimer phenomenon, which I definitely feel boosted both movies quite a bit. But I still think both movies would’ve still done well had they released separately. Make a good movie and people will show up.
As far as how big this ended up being? Well, if you look back at my July Preview, you would realize that “Barbie” making $93 million and “Oppenheimer” making $46.7 million was EXACTLY what I was expecting… for their opening weekends. But that’s how much both made in their SECOND weekend. “Barbie” opened to $162 million and “Oppenheimer” opened to $82.5 million. That’s an insane opening combo. I did a very detailed breakdown on my personal Facebook of how many records this set, so I won’t repeat myself here. Wander over there to see that post. But nevertheless, the two movies combining for nearly $250 million in their opening weekends helped set lots of records and pushed the overall month of July to a $1.328 billion, the highest grossing July since 2016.
The unfortunate consequence of this is that “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” and “Haunted Mansion” were both swallowed up in this success. “Haunted Mansion” seemed doomed to fail, but the failure of “Dead Reckoning” is a peculiar one because it was set up for success. Popular franchise. Great critic reviews. Great audience reviews. Tom Cruise being hugely popular after “Top Gun: Maverick.” But the result was one of the worst entries in the franchise at the box office. Outside maybe the “Part One” label causing people to be less interested, this seems to come down to an unfortunate release timing, one in which you can’t really blame Paramount for because no one expected Barbenheimer to be as massive as it was.
What does this all mean for the month of August? Well, what it means is that we’re going to play a game of “what can dethrone ‘Barbie’ at the box office?” And, spoiler alert, I’m not so sure anything can. But let’s dive in and find out!
As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of boxofficepro.com and the-numbers.com. The movies scheduled are the ones currently listed for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are subject to change.
August 4 – 6
Before we dive into the first of our two new releases this
weekend, the baseline I’m establishing for this little game of ours comes from
another movie that opened earlier this year. “Barbie” is a fairly unique movie
with little to directly compare it to and while it’s not a direct
apples-to-apples comparison, the stars have aligned in an interesting way that “Barbie”
has followed an almost duplicate trajectory of our current top grossing movie
of the year, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie.” “Barbie” opened to $162 million. “Mario”
opened to $146.4 million, but that was muted a bit by it opening on a
Wednesday. Its five day total, Wednesday through Sunday, was $204.6 million. “Barbie”
had the advantage of opening in the summer, so higher totals on weekdays with
school not in session than “Mario” in April, but nevertheless “Barbie” earned
$214.1 million in its first five days. Both movies fell about 40 percent in
weekend 2, “Barbie” slightly more, but they both wound up with nearly identical
weekend results, “Barbie” earning $93.0 million and “Mario” earning $92.3
million.
Paramount's "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem"
If we make the prediction that “Barbie” continues to closely follow “Mario,” we note that “Mario” in weekend 3 fell just 35 percent to $59.9 million, with only “Evil Dead Rise” and “Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” as competition, both of which were very different target audiences. So with that $60 million mark as our projected total for “Barbie,” is this the weekend it falls?
The first of our two competitors is Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, which actually gets a head start on the weekend, opening on Wednesday, August 2. In my calculations, this is the fourth attempt at starting up a new TMNT franchise cinematically. We had the live action trilogy in the 90s, the 2007 animated movie, and the two live-action Michael Bay produced movies in the 2010s. Added to that, of course, a long series of various comic books, TV shows, and video games, all of which began as a comic book by Kevin Eastman and Peter Laird, released by Mirage Studios, in 1984. It was more or less a parody of various superhero comics at the time and has now blossomed into its own mega franchise. This latest version, “Mutant Mayhem” takes the characters back to animation, with an animation style that seems to take influence from the Spider-Verse films, which can be seen as a new era of animation where not everything is your traditional 3D, computer generated animation. The team behind the mayhem is Seth Rogen and Evan Golberg, who have collaborated on a lot of things on the writing and producing side of the game, from your long list of raunchy comedies that you might associate Seth Rogen with to various shows like “The Boys” and “Invincible.”
Rogen does lend his voice to the movie as well, as John Cena and him voice Rocksteady and Bebop, but he’s primarily been pushed as writer and producer of this, the trailers advertising, “From permanent teenager Seth Rogen.” While animation is often a team effort, the actual directors of this are Jeff Rowe and Kyler Spears, Rowe being a co-director of “Mitchells vs. the Machines” and Spears having directed 20 episodes of Disney’s “Amphibia.” As far as our game of can it beat “Barbie”? Well, a $60 million debut is probably a bit on the high end here, especially with it opening on a Wednesday. If you look at the six previous theatrically released TMNT movies and adjust for ticket price inflation, the original 1990 movie would clock in at $63.4 million ($25.4 million unadjusted) for its opening weekend and the 2014 Michael Bay produced movie would equal $84.5 million ($65.6 million unadjusted), so it has theoretically been done, but maybe the more apt comparison is the 2007 animated movie, which unadjusted opened to $24.3 million, which would equal $37.1 million adjusted. With great early reviews that should lead to positive word of mouth, while this probably won’t top “Barbie,” it could end up as its new second place running-mate throughout the rest of August.
The other movie opening this weekend is one that feels like it should’ve come out 2-3 years and that is The Meg 2: The Trench. While “Mutant Mayhem” will be primarily attracting young males and boys, “The Meg 2” is a movie that will attract older males. This means that both movies can co-exist, both with each other and with “Barbie,” which had an opening weekend audience that was 65 percent female. “The Meg” was a very simple movie that was a huge surprise back in August 2018 as the movie about Jason Statham fighting a giant Megalodon opened to $45.4 million, when it was expected around $20 million. It also came out around the time of a random string of other shark movies, like “47 Meters Down” and “The Shallows.” If you do that well, you typically want to capitalize on that by getting the sequel out a year or two later. But five years later? Do people still care? Now, if you do the math, maybe they tried to start production and were stopped by COVID. So perhaps it’s not all their fault. But nevertheless, five years ago, with a pandemic in between, makes August 2018 feel like 10 years ago. “The Meg 2” is also projected at around $20 million, so is it possible we’re in for another surprise? Sure. But if so, probably not a $60 million surprise. The original didn’t even hit that. The other challenge is that, a few days away, awareness doesn’t seem super high and the reviews have not been released. This movie could surprise, but it’s also an easy candidate to be a dud.
August 11 – 13
The second weekend of our will it top “Barbie” game will
most likely see “Barbie” come in around $40 million. In the fourth weekend of “Mario,”
it fell an even softer 32 percent to $40.8 million, with the only competition
being the moderate release of “Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret.” If neither
“Mutant Mayhem” or “The Meg 2” were able to hit $60 million, ain’t no way that
our one new wide release will sniff $40 million.
Universal's "The Last Voyage of the Demeter"
If this weekend feels a bit empty, it’s because Sony took one look at the Barbenheimer success and said, “Yeah… no. We’re not releasing ‘Gran Turismo’ this weekend.” That movie was supposed to come out this weekend, but was bumped last minute to the final weekend of August. So we’ll tackle it there. That leaves the only wide release of this weekend as The Last Voyage of the Demeter, which is a Dracula-themed horror film that’s tracking to open to less than $10 million. The specifics here is that this is a movie based on one specific chapter of Bram Stoker’s 1897 novel “Dracula,” specifically the chapter titled “The Captain’s Log,” where a crew was haunted by this Dracula figure as they were traveling on their ship from Transylvania to London, of which there ends up being no trace of the crew when the ship arrives in London. Believe it or not, production on this film dates way back to when writer Bragi F. Schut was inspired by the 1992 film “Bram Stoker’s Dracula.” The rights to the film were first acquired in 2003 and it’s been a long journey since. It also winds up being the second Dracula-themed movie this year, as April’s “Renfield” was a major flop, opening to just $8 million on an $86 million budget. Early signs point to “Demeter” opening in a similar way with a budget that might be even larger?
August 18 – 20
The third weekend of August is where our “Barbie” game
becomes interesting. “Mario” becomes slightly less helpful in this instance
because in its fifth weekend it went up against “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
and plummeted 55 percent, its first big drop. But nevertheless, it still made
$18.6 million. With that on the low end of the spectrum, and $25-30 million
being more on the realistic side if it continues to only fall 30-40 percent,
this is the first weekend where it seems like the top spot at the box office
could be up for grabs if one of our late August films over-performs.
Warner Bros.' "Blue Beetle"
I say the “Mario” comparison is slightly less helpful here, but as it turns out there is a superhero movie opening on this weekend. And while it ain’t no “Guardians 3,” DC will have Blue Beetle opening here. This is a movie that perhaps has the absolute worst timing. It’s been well documented that DC, at the end of last year, has already made plans to completely reset their universe, with James Gunn leading the charge. And that was questionable timing even at that point given that DC had four movies in the old DCEU on the docket. And so far the people questioning that timing seem to have been proven right. While poor reaction to the first two could’ve been a big reason why they failed, the idea that the future was very cloudy for the characters of Shazam and Flash had to at least play a big role in why their movies failed. “Shazam! Fury of the Gods” opened to just $30.1 million and finished with just $57.6 million total domestically, which was almost less than the opening weekend of 2019’s “Shazam!” at $53.5 million, which itself was considered a bit of a disappointment. That, of course, was followed up by “The Flash,” which, despite three variations of Batman, Supergirl, Wonder Woman, and a handful of Superman cameos, in addition it being advertised as a big multiverse movie that even James Gunn promised was pivotal to his universe in using Flashpoint Paradox to reset things, opened to just $55 million, tanking historically to making just $107 million domestically, not only finishing with less than “Guardians 3” did in one weekend ($118.4 million), but barely beating out the opening weekend of “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” which opened to $106.1 million.
And with DC’s image and reputation at an absolute low, perhaps a historic low, “Blue Beetle” is supposed to follow up? A movie based on a comic book character that few have ever heard of? Had DC been doing great, this would’ve been a solid intro to a new character. But even then, Marvel even sometimes has a hard time taking a brand new character and making everyone care. It’s not often they strike gold with a “Guardians of the Galaxy.” Going in favor of “Blue Beetle” is that it’s either the first or one of the first major superhero movies based on a Latino character. Representation can go a long way in that realm. Just look at “Shang-Chi” or “Black Panther.” But again, do people care? Even if the movie is well received, it’s possible that DC’s reputation is so low that people just don’t show up and cause “Blue Beetle” to be dead on arrival. Reviews probably have to be through the roof for this to find success, and even then it would probably be a word of mouth hit rather than a huge opening. Actors not being able to promote this during the strike also doesn’t help. In Box Office Pro’s long range forecast, they said initial tracking has it significantly behind “Shazam! Fury of the Gods,” which again, only opened to $30.1 million. They pegged it as a $12-17 million opening weekend, with a $27-55 million range for its final domestic total.
If worse comes to worse for “Blue Beetle,” it might not even be the top competition for “Barbie” this weekend. That might end up being Strays, an adult-targeted raunchy comedy about a group of stray dogs wanting to get revenge on their owners that abandoned them. The trailers point to this as being from the humans who brought you “21 Jump Street” and “Cocaine Bear,” those humans being Phil Lord and Chris Miller, who have a long string of success in the comedy realm. Lord and Miller are producers on this film, with the director being Josh Greenbaum (“Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar”) and the writer being Dan Perrault (“American Vandal”). Although the real draw is Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx leading the voice cast of foul-mouth dogs. This movie isn’t a Seth Rogen vehicle, but speaking of his team, they had a movie called “Good Boys” that opened to $21.4 million in late August of 2019 that this could replicate. And if “Barbie” ends up in the $18-25 million range, this could be a competition.
August 25 – 27
The final weekend of August will be the most vulnerable “Barbie”
will be if nothing still has knocked it out. Continuing the “Mario” comparison,
in weekend 6, “Mario” dropped just 32 percent to $12.6 million, but again that
was after getting dinged the weekend before. If “Barbie” ends weekend 5 in the
$25-30 million range, $15-20 million could be its range for weekend 6. In late
August with little to offer, this is where often a previously popular summer
film either continues to reign or even resurfaces at top after conceded the
previous weekend. Will “Barbie” complete the sweep of August before “The Equalizer 3”
and “The Nun 2” hit in early September?
Sony's "Gran Turismo"
This was going to be another empty final weekend of August, but as mentioned earlier, this is where Gran Turismo got moved to. And Sony has been pushing this one hard. In fact, if I’m projecting “Barbie” to earn somewhere in the $15-20 million range, it’s noteworthy that that’s the exact range that Box Office Pro has “Gran Turismo” at for its opening weekend. Granted, their last Long Range Forecast post was right before it swapped dates, but still. The bar isn’t very high and there’s no guarantee “Gran Turismo” clears it, but there’s at least a pathway for it to, uhh… “race” to the first place finish. “Gran Turismo” began in 1997 as a racing game for PlayStation and the franchise has since become the highest selling video game franchise under the PlayStation brand. The franchise so far has eight primary releases, the most recent being “Gran Turismo 7” in 2022, as well as a handful of secondary releases. The movie adaptation is not based specifically on the game itself, but rather tells the true story of Jann Mardenborough, who transitioned from being a video game player to a professional race car driver after winning the GT Academy competition in 2011, beating 90,000 other entrants. The GT Academy was a television program from 2008 to 2016 that allowed the best Gran Turismo players the chance to earn a professional racing career. Mardenborough was the third and youngest winner, successfully transitioning to a racing career despite having no previous on-road experience.
There are two other movies scheduled for a wide release this weekend. Both of them seem like they’re heading for weekends that barely register. Typical late August affair as this last weekend of August before Labor Day is often the worst weekend of the year. But anyways, speaking of unlikely success stories in sports, the first of these two small films is The Hill, a movie based on the story of Rickey Hill, a baseball player who had to overcome a severe physical handicap (the trailer shows him having very bad legs) to becoming a professional baseball player. Dennis Quaid plays his dad in the movie who is trying to be real with him, saying he’s not going to make it with his condition. The movie is being released by a small distribution company named Briarcliff Entertainment, whose highest grossing movie is the Liam Neeson thriller “Blacklight,” which opened to $3.5 million in February 2022. Relevant to “The Hill,” they also released the sports drama “Sweetwater” this April, which only earned $351,010 in 1,204 theaters.
And actually, speaking of Liam Neeson thrillers, he has yet another one coming out this weekend with our other small film, that of Retribution. In this scenario, Liam Neeson is in a car with his kids when he gets a phone call from a person saying that there is a bomb in his car that will go off if he decides to leave the car, so he is held hostage in his own car while being forced to follow the demands of the person on the phone. If this type of generic action thriller, that feels like he’s redone “Taken” about a hundred times, is what Liam Neeson enjoys doing, then all power to him. Do what you enjoy. But they’ve definitely become very predictable, at least at the box office. The last five of them have all made less than $20 million total at the domestic box office and all opened below $5 million. The said openings are “Honest Thief” (October 2020) - $3.6 million, “The Marksman” (January 2021) - $3.1 million, “Blacklight” (February 2022) - $3.5 million, “Memory” (April 2022) - $3.1 million, and “Marlowe” (February 2023) - $1.8 million. Based on that, you should know what to expect from “Retribution.”
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