One month into the summer movie season and we’re off to a hot start! Now we enter June, where the actual summer begins. The kids are out of school and the official summer solstice is right around the corner. And the prognosis looks very positive!
When I did my May Movie Preview, I theorized that May would start the summer off a bit soft before things got going in June and July. That being based on “The Devil Wears Prada 2,” “Mortal Kombat II,” and “The Mandalorian and Grogu” being the headline acts of May. Those movies performed about on par with expectations. No huge surprises or disappointments. What I did not anticipate were the historic runs of both “Obsession” and “Backrooms,” which have both crossed $100 million domestically going into the first weekend of June. “Obsession” was a massive word of mouth hit. It started with a solid $17.2 million opening, but then increased in each of its next two weekends, which is extremely rare for a movie that opens in wide release. That was followed up by “Backrooms” opening to $81.4 million, more than tripling the previous opening weekend record for an A24 release. It’s already their highest grossing film domestically going into its second weekend. That led May to finish with $1.063 billion domestically, the first time in the post-COVID era that May hit the billion dollar mark. And the first month of 2021 to do so as well.
Now the question is, can June keep the momentum going? Based on the likes of “Toy Story 5,” “Supergirl,” and “Disclosure Day” being on the schedule, I’d say the probability is quite high! Are there any other under-the-radar releases that could surprise? Could there be bigger blockbusters headed for disappointment? Let’s dive in and figure that out!
I always finish this intro by giving credit to the sources in my monthly posts. If you’ve been following recently, we’ve had some drama in that regard lately with my main two sources, the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com. The Numbers is up and running with their schedule, so I have that to work with, but they’re still a bare-bones site right now. They claim on social media that they’re still working on getting the rest of the site up, but it’s been three months now, so who knows. And Box Office Pro has fallen behind again on their Long Range Forecasts that I often rely on for projections. So I’m somewhat on my own to a degree, but that means more double-checking with other sites like Box Office Mojo and IMDb. I do my best with what I have. That means release dates are even more subject to change and more surprises are possible, so just keep that in mind as we go!
June 5 – 7
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| Paramount's "Scary Movie" |
Heading into this weekend, the bar to clear in order to get No. 1 was to defeat the second weekend total of “Backrooms,” which, as mentioned in the intro, opened to a very surprising $81.4 million. This put it in line with “Five Nights at Freddy’s” ($80.0 million) and “The Conjuring: Last Rites” ($84.0 million). In my own prognosis to determine the bar, I would’ve naturally looked at those two movies’ second weekend drops (76 percent and 69 percent, respectively) and pegged “Backrooms” at $20-25 million, an easy mark for both our new movies to clear. However, given the unpredictable nature of both it and “Obsession” right now, I was mostly playing the game of wait and see. If it only dropped 50 percent and wound up around $40 million, I wouldn’t have been surprised. That would’ve made for a more competitive weekend, too. The final result was on the more predictable, frontloaded range, though, as it fell 68 percent to make $26.2 million.
That means the “competition” this weekend wound up not being much of a competition at all as Scary Movie soared past that mark with a franchise best $54.3 million opening. This is the sixth movie in the Scary Movie franchise. Much like the main target of its parody this time around (the Scream franchise), they have simply decided to name it “Scary Movie” instead of “Scary Movie 6,” which “Scream,” “Halloween,” and “I Know What You Did Last Summer” all did with their recent “rebootquels.” Each Scary Movie has targeted a different set of horror movies to parody. “Scream” was the primary target of the original and returns as the primary target of this new movie, specifically the reboot films – the fifth and sixth movies. But they’ve managed to sprinkle in a decent handful of other recent horror movies, too. There’s a lot of returns in this movie, rather than just Ghostface. The Wayans family are back guiding the ship as writers and producers after initially leaving following the second movie. The movie also returns to being rated R after the third through fifth movie were PG-13. And, biggest of all, the franchise itself returns after the last entry was back in 2013. This all explains why the hype behind the movie led it to the franchise record opening, which was previously held by “Scary Movie 3” in 2003 with $48.1 million. That would all change drastically when you adjust for 20 years of ticket price inflation, but given the $30 million production budget, studio execs likely aren’t looking too closely at that. The only thing that didn’t return was a positive response as “Scary Movie” currently sits at a measly 24 percent from critics. This isn’t the lowest score in the franchise – the second and fifth movies are much lower. But it’s also far from the best, so the long waited return was met with mixed reaction at best.
The other major release of the weekend presented a story that was in stark contrast to “Scary Movie,” this being the recent live action adaptation of Masters of the Universe. From the animated show to various books, comics, video games, and toys, He-Man was a major staple of many people’s childhood who grew up in the 80s and 90s. The original animated series began in 1983 and spawned quite the large, successful franchise. This is not even the first time a live action movie has been made as, in 1987, Dolph Lundgren took on a title of He-Man. But in the year 2026, is there the same level of excitement for this franchise as there once was? That’s been my question this entire year leading up to this movie as it seems like a movie that is 20 years too late. That fear presented itself as justifiable as the movie narrowly edged out “Backrooms” for second place, making just $29.4 million. Narrowly edging out “Backrooms” and falling just short of $30 million is definitely not the result Amazon MGM was hoping for, given the $170 million production budget that’s been reported. The contrast to “Scary Movie” here is that “Scary Movie” was widely anticipated, delivered a franchise best opening, and easily cleared a low budget in just one weekend, yet was not received well. “Masters of the Universe” was not anticipated, is poised as a major financial disaster for the studio considering the opening and the budget, yet those who saw it, general speaking, were fairly pleased. Director Travis Knight, CEO of Laika Studios and director of the Transformers spin-off “Bumblebee,” clearly has a love for this genre of 80s franchise and knows how to make a movie that can please the target audience. While it’s not likely to ever be considered a financial success, that might lead to decent word of mouth that gives the movie a longer post-theatrical life than one might otherwise expect.
Bubbling just under all the major headlines this weekend was The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act, which snuck into the top five at No. 5 with an opening of $12.4 million. It did open on Thursday, though, so through four days it made a total of $20.2 million. Like “Backrooms,” this movie has its origins in the YouTube realm as “The Amazing Digital Circus” is an 8-episode web series that first premiered in October 2023 on the Glitch Productions YouTube channel. Each episode is about 25-30 minutes long, with the first episode having 439 million views. Seven of the eight episodes have at least 100 million views, with the lowest being Episode 7 at 85 million views, which is still currently more than the 84 million views that Kane Parsons’ initial “Backrooms” YouTube short has. All episodes are also currently available on Netflix. The general idea behind this series follows a cast of six humans who are trapped in the titular circus, a cartoonish virtual reality simulation. This current movie, “The Last Act,” combines Episode 8 with the hour-long series finale, which will later release on Netflix and YouTube on June 19. Despite having a far larger YouTube view total than “Backrooms,” this remained a more niche appeal theatrically. Although that might be because it was a limited event from Fathom Events as opposed to a major A24 release, so less of a marketing push. It’s also available for free in just over a week, so that’s another reason.
In other theatrical news from across the weekend, “Obsession” had its first decline, weekend over weekend. Although it dropped a mere 7 percent to make another $25.4 million, for a domestic total of $151.9 million. And no signs of slowing down. John Carney’s Power Ballad also expanded into wide release after opening in limited release the weekend prior. It stars Paul Rudd as Rick, a past-his-prime wedding singer, meeting fading boy-band star Danny, played by Nick Jonas, and bonding over music. But when Danny turns Rick’s song idea into his next big hit, without giving Rick recognition, Rick sets out to reclaim this recognition he claims he deserves. John Carney has also directed other musically themed movies such as “Once,” “Begin Again,” “Sing Street,” and “Flora and Son,” so this hits right in his lane as another feel-good musical drama that fans of Carney have seemed to enjoy. It didn’t make a huge impact at the box office with just $1.29 million, but it is in 1,265 theaters, so it should at least be available as a counter-programming option.
June 12 – 14
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| Universal's "Disclosure Day" |
Very few filmmakers these days can sell a movie based on their name alone. One of them is Christopher Nolan, who has “The Odyssey” coming in July. Another is Steven Spielberg who has Disclosure Day coming out this weekend. While Spielberg’s very early credits come with various short films he made as a teen, his career really began in the 1970s and specifically launched into the stratosphere with “Jaws” in 1975, which is one of those cinema-changing moments as him and George Lucas, who had “Star Wars” two years later, essentially invented the summer blockbuster. And now Spielberg’s career has spanned six different decades as one of the most influential filmmakers ever. And although some might say his recent work hasn’t been as influential as his past work, he’s still managed to attract audiences with the likes of “Ready Player One” and “West Side Story,” while appeasing the awards crowds with the likes of “Lincoln,” “Bridge of Spies,” “The Post,” and “The Fabelmans.” Now he’s going back to his roots with “Disclosure Day,” which feels like a classic 80s throwback. Spielberg directing a movie about an alien invasion. Starring in this movie are Emily Blunt, Josh O’Connor, Colin Firth, Eve Hewson, and Colman Domingo, among others. This is aiming to be his highest directorial movie since “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” in 2008. As disliked as that movie is, it opened massive with $100.1 million and finished with $317.1 million domestically. His highest opening since then is “Ready Player One” with $41.7 million. “Disclosure Day” is expected to open in the realm of $40-50 million. If reviews are strong, which seems like the early indication, this could seemingly push even higher.
Two smaller films will open alongside “Disclosure Day” this upcoming weekend. The first hails from the other side of the planet, that being the Hong Kong action thriller The Furious. This has no relation to anything fast and furious, or Vin Diesel related. Instead this is directed by Kenji Tanigaki, a Japanese action choreographer, stunt performer, and director who is best known for his work in Hong Kong cinema, while expanding to Japanese cinema and Hollywood. “The Furious” is about an ordinary tradesman whose daughter is kidnapped, resulting in him fighting a criminal empire on his way to rescue her. The movie premiered last year at the Toronto International Film Festival and was the runner up for the People’s Choice Award in the Midnight Madness category. The trailer uses pull quotes such as “One of the best action films of the decade,” and “The best brawler since The Raid films.” While you can take anything from one or two random reviews to make your movie seem like everyone loves it, this one seems like it has the overall praise to back statements like that up. With 32 reviews counted as of me typing this, all 32 are positive, resulting in an early 100 percent Rotten Tomatoes score. And when you click on that number to see the average score from those reviews, it’s an 8.8 out of 10. If you’re looking for a solid action film, it appears that this one delivers.
The other movie is one that I promise is 100 percent a real film that is being released in theaters this weekend. It’s an action comedy called Stop! That! Train! The movie is directed by Adam Shankman, director of the 2007 movie “Hairspray,” and stars RuPaul Charles from “RuPaul’s Drag Race,” along with several other drag performers, who are on a luxurious train called the Glamazonian Express that goes through a massive storm that causes it to become a runaway train. RuPaul actually plays the President of the United States and the main stars are a team of stewardesses who need to figure out how to… stop that train. But hey, the world is full of people who are begging for more original, creative ideas. In a summer movie season that is always full of sequels and franchise films, why not have a quirky, self-aware action comedy whose goal is to help the audience simply have a ton of fun? Regardless of how this turns out, you certainly can’t accuse it of lacking originality. In fact, all three of these films this weekend, despite familiar premises on paper (alien invasion, father tracking down daughter, action comedy on a train), would fall into the category of original films. If you’re among that crowd that’s been begging for that, this weekend provides!
June 19 – 21
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| Pixar's "Toy Story 5" |
The third weekend of June will have four new wide releases. Leading the pack will be the movie that will not only dominate this weekend, but is a strong contender for one of the top movies of the summer and that’s Toy Story 5. Yep, Woody, Buzz, and the gang are back for another adventure and this time the enemy appears to be technology. Mirroring the original adventure where Buzz replaced Woody as Andy’s favorite toy, Bonnie now gets a new frog-like tablet named Lilypad. This is not just any tablet, though. It appears to be a smart tablet with all sorts of fancy features that threatens all the toys’ playtime. Why play with old-fashioned toys when you can play with the fancy new device? And yes, Woody left to go be with Bo Peep at the end of the last movie, but the trailers reveal he returns to help them solve this new conundrum. In regards to this movie’s financial potential, it’s certainly worth noting that many still hold to their idea that the original Toy Story trilogy is perfect and no more sequels are necessary. So there is potential for franchise fatigue. The counter to that is that people made that argument prior to “Toy Story 4,” yet showed up for that sequel anyway. In fact, “Toy Story 4” is the highest opener of the franchise with $120.9 million, beating the mark “Toy Story 3” set in 2010 with $110.3 million. When you adjust those numbers for ticket price inflation, “Toy Story 4” bumps up to $158 million, while “Toy Story 3” still holds the attendance record, adjusting to $167 million. If the audience shows up in similar attendance numbers, could that mean an opening in the realm of $150-175 million for “Toy Story 5”? The Pixar record for highest opening remains “Incredibles 2” in 2018 with $182.7 million, but “Inside Out 2” in 2024 wasn’t too far behind with $154.2 million. So audiences love their Pixar sequels. Even if “Toy Story 5” lands in the unadjusted range of the third and fourth movies ($110-120 million), that’s still a huge win for Disney and Pixar. Regardless, triple digits of some sort feels like a safe call at this point.
Below “Toy Story 5” is a trio of indie films from a trio of indie distributors who have done a great job of lighting a fire in the indie realm as of late, that being A24 (“Backrooms”), Focus Features (“Obsession”), and NEON (“Hokum,” “Exit 8,” “I Love Boosters”). Let’s start with A24 as they have The Death of Robin Hood releasing this weekend. As the title might suggest, this is a bit of a twist on the Robin Hood story, following a more aged Robin Hood who finds himself gravely injured in a battle he thought would be his last. However, he instead finds himself in the hands of a mysterious woman and is offered a chance at salvation. A24 is known for their more unconventional films that they find and distribute and this version of Robin Hood seems to follow suit as it appears to be less about the action and adventure that a Robin Hood movie would normally provide and more about a Robin Hood who is reflecting on his past life of crime and murder. While casual fans might not care too much about yet another Robin Hood movie, despite any unique twists, cinephiles might have their interests piqued based on the fact that this is directed by Michael Sarnoski, director of the 2021 film “Pig,” starring Nicolas Cage, which was very highly regarded. The movie stars Hugh Jackman as Robin Hood and Bill Skarsgard as Little John, with Jodie Comer and Noah Jupe also in supporting roles, so it does have decent star power in the cast. A24 certainly doesn’t *need* this movie to be a massive success considering that “Backrooms” may have funded their next five years as a studio with how much it has made, but I’m sure they wouldn’t mind this one riding the coattails of that one a bit.
Next we move onto NEON. They may not have had a massive hit on the level of the other two studios previously mentioned, but they’ve been extremely consistent as of late, especially in the horror realm. And they have another one in that genre with Leviticus that they picked up out of Sundance this year. While certainly horror, this also has a touch of romance, perhaps properly placed in the month of June, as it follows two teenage boys falling for each other. However, they must also deal with a violent entity that takes the form of the person they desire most – each other. After premiering at Sundance, it also took a pit stop at the South by Southwest Film Festival, along with several others, before being available to general audiences this weekend. The reaction has so far been very strong with a 95 percent Rotten Tomatoes score, with reviews giving it credit for good scares, tension, and a good amount of symbolism that perhaps elevates it above your traditional scare-fest. While the horror genre certainly can’t be underestimated right now, a potential comparison to NEON themselves from last month might be “Hokum,” which scored a $6.4 million opening and has so far made $16.9 million in its domestic run. This would probably be the more traditional route with the other breakout hits being more outliers in regards to prognosis. But in a year that’s been really good for horror fans, this adds another entry to that list.
Lastly, we dive into Focus Features, who are certainly over the moon about the fact that their $15 million purchase of “Obsession” last year from the Toronto International Film Festival has resulted in over $200 million worldwide already in just a month of release. Now on every future trailer they have the opportunity to add, “From the studio that brought you ‘Obsession’…” On that note, their next release is the coming of age drama Girls Like Girls, which has had a fascinating path to theaters. It began as a song by pop singer Hayley Kiyoko, who is a strong advocate of the LGBTQ+ community, as a member of the community herself. She released the song back in 2015, while also co-directing the music video. She wasn’t done there, though. She turned that music video into her first novel, released on May 30, 2023. And now that novel has become a movie, written and directed by… yes. Herself. Co-written by Stefanie Scott and Chloe Okuno. Between this and “Leviticus,” Pride Month will be doing quite well this weekend at the cinemas. No horror here, though. Just a coming of age drama about a 17-year-old teenage girl trying to navigate intimacy after the passing of her mother. She develops a connection with another girl, who is also unfamiliar with dating girls. Just like A24 earlier in this section, Focus Features doesn’t *need* this to be huge financially. They’re doing very well at the moment. With “Obsession” as the outlier, this one seems to be a more traditional release from them as they’re very experienced with releasing low budget indie films in a moderate amount of theaters. Occasionally one will break out, but there’s often no pressure for them to.
June 26 – 28
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| Warner Bros.' "Supergirl" |
Finishing off the month will be the next entry in James Gunn’s new DC Universe as the studio will follow-up last year’s massive hit “Superman” with Clark Kent’s cousin Kara Zor-El, aka Supergirl. James Gunn has previously announced that this version of the story is an adaptation of the comic series “Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow,” which, as Gunn said, explores a more “hardcore” version of Kara than has been previously seen on screen. If David Corenswet’s interpretation of Superman follows the more traditional route of what you’d see in a Super Person, Kara in this movie is more of the rebel cousin. Not only does this separate this 2026 “Supergirl” from last year’s “Superman” so they’re not just making the same movie twice, this also allows the character to be different from Melissa Benoist’s Supergirl, who enjoyed a six-season run on The CW from 2015-2021 as a part of the Arrowverse. Milly Alcock of “House of the Dragon” fame stars as Kara in this new movie and gives the character her own unique flair that fulfills James Gunn’s vision. And while Gunn is still the main captain steering the ship in this universe, directing duties for this chapter have been given to Craig Gillespie, who is most notable for “I, Tonya” and “Lars and the Real Girl,” but has also helped in the Disney realm with the likes of “Finest Hours,” “Million Dollar Arm,” and “Cruella.” A big superhero movie will be new for him, but he’s a well-respected director who has provided quite the variety of films. The movie’s financials are a bit of a question mark as this new DC is still very much in the early, experimental phase. It’s probably not fair to expect “Supergirl” to match the $125 million opening or its $354 million domestic total as Supergirl is not as popular of a character as Superman. And this will be her very first proper feature film. But there should be enough goodwill to carry over here for a respectable run. The main goal for DC at the moment is likely to rebuild trust with audiences rather than instantly churn out billion dollar hits.
Never believe Hollywood when they say something is the last chapter. However, another saying that pairs with that is Father Time is undefeated. At some point in life, performing a series of extremely stupid and dangerous stunts and pranks has to cease unless you want to actually wake up dead. That might be why the Jackass crew claims to be calling it quits with their sixth theatrically released film Jackass: Best and Last. This crew began in the year 2000 with a TV series that ran for three short seasons on MTV. That’s spawned into a franchise that’s still going over 25 years later because people enjoy watching others do dumb things and get hurt, which is the whole shtick here. As I mentioned, they go out and film themselves doing purposeful pain-inducing stunts and pranks. The fun on the audience side of things is that they get to watch the crew continue to not learn. Because, hey, they made a career out of it. Why stop? The first movie, “Jackass: The Movie,” was released in 2002. All five movies so far have been remarkably consistent, opening to at least $20 million every time, with “Jackass 3D” in 2010 taking the cake with a $50.4 million. Although 25 years of films changes things when you adjust for ticket price inflation. “Jackass 3D” still is on top, but that bumps up to $76.7 million, with the first two and “Bad Grandpa” opening in the $45-55 million range. The recent one from 2022 would adjust to the lowest, but still at $26.4 million. That shows us the potential of this franchise in regards to attendance. Will the promise of a final film boost attendance to the $45-55 million range? Or will this fall more in line with the 2022 film? If the latter, an opening in the range of $25 million is a safe bet that’s still pretty solid!
We finish this month’s preview off by diving into another anime, with Bleach: Thousand-Year Bloody War – The Calamity. “Bleach” is an anime series that began in 2004, with the basic premise following a high school student who can see spirits and becomes a Soul Reaper, after assuming the duties of a previous Soul Reaper. The initial series ran for a total of 366 episodes over the course of 16 seasons, ending in 2011. “Bleach: Thousand-Year Bloody War” is a sequel series that began in 2022 and will be airing its fourth and final season this upcoming July. This movie, “The Calamity,” is a compilation of the first three episodes of this final season. Given the length of this whole series, this is not a movie that’s going to attract any new viewers, but rather stands as a special reward for long-time fans who are eager to get a head start on this new season, while doing so in theaters. In regards to box office predictions, anime remains fairly unpredictable and definitely continues to grow in popularity here in the United States. The peak of the genre’s potential so far comes last fall when the most recent Demon Slayer movie opened to $70.6 million, followed by Chainsaw Man delivering a movie the next month that opened to $18.0 million. You never know when one of these is going to pop off, but likely the most realistic comparison here is to two of these movies that opened last month, both with incredibly long titles. “That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime the Movie: Tears of the Azure Sea” opened to $947,325 from 837 theaters, while “Mobile Suit Gundam Hathaway: The Sorcery of Nymph Circle” similarly opened to $820,038 from 894 theaters. This new Bleach movie feels like it will have a similar niche appeal as these two rather than a breakout hit like Demon Slayer or Chainsaw Man.
