Movie Preview: April 2022

We have arrived in April 2022, which means the year is a quarter of the way through. Always a weird thing to think about with how fast time goes. But things are looking very positive at the box office and we have an abnormally busy April to talk about. Most years, April is that awkward month between March and May, two very popular months of the year for movies. And while it sounds like a broken record to say that things aren’t normal at the moment, we’ve had plenty of strong box office performances of late that suggest people are feeling comfortable coming back to theaters. What makes this current April unique is that studios mostly avoided March, allowing “The Batman” to completely dominate. In fact, they mostly avoided January and February, too, mostly due to Omicron. The consequences of that, as mentioned, is this abnormally busy April that has more attempted blockbusters than is common for an April, which should make this an exciting month. At least for some.

As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com. The movies that are listed are the ones currently scheduled for a wide theatrical release in the United States and Canada. Said release dates are always subject to change.

April 1 – 3

Sony’s "Morbius"

Starting the month off is yet another comic book movie, that of Sony’s Morbius. While the Marvel Brand, and superhero movies as a whole, are bigger in today’s era of movies than they ever have been, “Morbius” isn’t one that has received a whole lot of positive fanfare. Dr. Michael Morbius is a comic book character dating back to 1971 and is typically used as a villain to Spider-Man, although he has wandered into anti-hero realms at times. His character biography includes him having a rare blood condition that evolves into him becoming a full-out superhuman vampire upon them attempting to cure said blood condition. Thus he’s another “science experiment gone wrong” style of Spider-Man villain. This adaptation of the character is played by Jared Leto and follows the trend of Sony making movies of Spider-Man villains or anti-heroes without the inclusion of Spider-Man. What Sony’s end game with all of this is anybody’s guess, but the massive success of “Venom” and its sequel has given them confidence in going forward with this route. Although Venom is a much more popular character than Morbius, so this is a potential oversight in reading what audiences want.

The initial trailer for “Morbius” was released in January 2020 as it was scheduled for a July 2020 release date. It thus became one of the many movies that became victim of COVID and has thus bounced around the release schedule until Sony finally settled on this date, over two years after that initial trailer was released. And while such ping-ponging is understandable, “Morbius” is not one that has been well-served by such delays as reactions to any trailer have been mixed to negative. The negative stench has seemingly gotten worse the more the movie has been pushed back. And Jared Leto’s reputation has only worsened after his Razzie-winning performance in “House of Gucci” added to an already controversial resume of recent performances following his widely mocked turn as Joker in 2016’s “Suicide Sqaud.” Fair or not, the man has become a bit of a punchline, which doesn’t help this movie’s prospects. No surprise the reviews have come in at an abysmal 20 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Yet despite that, Sony is still expecting a $40 million debut, which is half as much as “Venom” and not anywhere close to the MCU Marvel films, but for its respectable $75 million budget is not bad at all. A potential minor win for a movie that’s had a lot of toxic buzz for two years.

April 8 – 10

Paramount's "Sonic the Hedgehog 2"

Perhaps the most highly anticipated movie of the month hits theaters in this second weekend of April. And in an odd turn of events over the last three years, that movie is Sonic the Hedgehog 2. Because, yeah, it was around three years ago this time when that initial trailer got released and widely mocked. You know the story. The movie was postponed for them to redesign Sonic and that redesign shocked people in a good way. The movie went on to be a pretty solid hit, opening with $58 million over the 3-day and $70 million over the 4-day Presidents Day weekend in February 2020, a month before the pandemic hit. And yes, it has been two years since COVID initially hit, which through all the craziness and blurred timelines for all of us, Paramount managed to make a sequel to “Sonic,” with the return of Jim Carrey as the villain and the addition of Tails and Knuckles to the adventures. Anticipation and excitement are pretty high and initially reviews are fairly promising. $40-60 million is the expected range for its opening. I personally wouldn’t be surprised to see it hit the top end of that range, matching or coming close to its predecessor. And it should have a fairly long runway with its release with not a whole ton of family competition in April and May.

The other release of this weekend is the new Michael Bay action/thriller Ambulance. This is Michael Bay’s first movie he’s directed since “6 Underground” in 2019 and first theatrical release since “Transformers: The Last Night” in 2017, as “6 Underground” was a Netflix release. It stars Jake Gyllenhaal and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as two adoptive siblings who attempt a bank robbery. Said bank robbery goes wrong and leads the brothers to hijacking an ambulance and leading the police on a high speed chase. This was actually released a few weeks ago in a handful of international markets and has performed decently, earning $13 million so far from about 30 markets. Reaction has been decently positive. Nothing through the roof, but it appears to be a fairly entertaining action film from people wanting a simple escape. In terms of its opening weekend, the last two theatrically released non-Transformers movies that Michael Bay directed were “13 Hours” in 2016 and “Pain & Gain” in 2013. Those two movies opened to $16 million and $20 million, respectively. That’s about the range that’s expected here, if not a tad bit lower. $12-18 million is the range that Box Office Pro has projected.

April 15 – 17

Warner Bros.' "Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore"

The third weekend of April sees the return of the Wizarding World, with the third movie in the “Fantastic Beasts” spin-off franchise, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. Normally one would think that there would be massive buzz and excitement from Potterheads that would lead this to be one of the most anticipated movies of the year. However, it’s worth noting that excitement levels seem to be an all-time low for any “Harry Potter” or “Fantastic Beasts” related property. The first “Fantastic Beasts” was generally well received, albeit with a tad bit of mixed feelings. However, “The Crimes of Grindelwald” was pretty universally rejected among Potter fans, casual fans, and critics alike. On top of that, there has been plenty of controversy surrounding the franchise outside the realm of the films themselves, with J.K. Rowling herself making many enemies with her online comments as well as Warner Bros. making the decision to fire Johnny Depp as Grindelwald, replacing him with Mads Mikkelsen. While Mikkelsen is a well-liked actor, many may choose to skip the movie due to a bad taste in their mouth after the firing of Depp. And that decision has been perhaps made easier by the fact that many have lost interest in the series, anyways.

Fair or not, “The Secrets of Dumbledore” has a bit of an uphill battle to climb to win fans back. But all that considered, this is still a movie in the “Harry Potter” universe and that alone will lead this to at least not be a complete disaster. Every movie in the main saga opened with at least $75 million, regardless of response. The two “Fantastic Beasts” movies opened to $74 million and $64 million, respectively. “The Crimes of Grindelwald” became the first movie in the universe to not hit $200 million domestically, but its $159.6 million isn’t terrible, especially for spin-off movie standards. Box Office Pro is expecting around $50 million for its opening and $100-125 million total domestically. I’m sure Warner Bros. would like a whole lot more out of one of their main franchises, but things could be worse. If they end up making a quality film that people enjoy, that will go a long way in winning audiences back.

Tagging along with “The Secrets of Dumbledore” this weekend is a little film called Father Stu. This is a Mel Gibson and Mark Wahlberg led drama from Sony about a boxer turned priest, based on the true life story of Stuart Long, with Wahlberg being the one playing the lead role here. I’m not 100 percent sure how much of a religious angle this has as compared to simply an inspirational story, but in theory it is positioned well as a movie about a man changing his life to become a priest being released on Easter weekend. Although the movie has an R-rating tagged to it, suggesting the target audience isn’t necessarily the grassroots Christian audience, but rather simply to adults in general who want to watch an inspiring drama. The Easter release of it all might be more of a coincidence. This will look to find a place somewhere in the top 10, with a projected $4-8 million for its opening.

April 22 – 24

Universal’s "The Bad Guys"

Not the final weekend of the month, but it is the final weekend of the month with wide releases coming out. Leading the way will be DreamWorks with their latest animated film The Bad Guys. This will be leading the way out of the new films, anyways as it’s more of a low key release for DreamWorks. They have been pushing it, but awareness doesn’t seem to be incredibly high at the moment. This stars a team of bad guys, or bad animals, rather – a wolf, a snake, a tarantula, a shark, and a piranha – who are trying to change their imagine and become good guys, cleverly using Billie Eilish’s song “Bad Guy” in their advertising. DreamWorks is still one of the major animation studios around, but it has been a while since they’ve had a broadly appealing franchise hit like a “Shrek,” a “Kung Fu Panda” or a “How to Train Your Dragon” to attract audiences with. Comparing their last two “normal” releases (ignoring the pandemic releases), “The Boss Baby: Family Business” opened to $16 million last year and “Abominable” opened to $20 million in 2019. That’s a far cry from when they consistently opened movies to $30-50 million, but it seems like a fair range for this one. Like with “Sonic,” though, there’s really no other major family release until “Lightyear” in June, so the potential runway here could be long if this gets good reviews and word of mouth spreads.

The second movie of this weekend might be more of a niche thing and said target is already loving it and that’s The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. I say “already” because this premiered at the South by Southwest Film Festival a few weeks back in March and is currently standing at 100 percent on Rotten Tomatoes through its first 24 reviews and has an IMDb score of 8.8. Whether or not those numbers stand when it hits a wide audience is to be determined, but this movie is a Nicolas Cage meta action/comedy. Love Nicolas Cage movies? Love how he’s crazy, goofy, and unrestrained in a very self-aware sort of way? Well, “Massive Talent” is a movie where Nicolas Cage stars as Nicolas Cage and leans into every Nicolas Cage trope or meme in what seems to be one of the most self-aware movies as of late. Those who don’t get the joke have the potential to be lost, hence this being more of a niche movie. But I could see a world wherein this either tops “The Bad Guys” as the highest grossing new release this weekend or holds well throughout the weeks and months ahead as word gets out to Nicolas Cage fans, assuming word of mouth as high as it has been from South by Southwest.

The final movie of the weekend and the month sees director Robert Eggers returning with The Northman. Eggers is the director of “The Witch” and “The Lighthouse,” both of which he took the audience directly into the time periods of the subject matter in attempted super realistic portrayals, including actual dialogue styles from the time taken from journals and whatnot. “The Witch” portrayed the time of the Salem Witch Trials while “The Lighthouse” involved late 1800s sailors at a lighthouse. And now Eggers is taking his audience into the time of the Vikings with an action/adventure epic about a young Viking prince on a quest to avenge his father’s murder. It’s an Eggers reunion of sorts as he brings in Anya Taylor-Joy from “The Witch” and “Willem Dafoe” from “The Lighthouse,” while adding the likes of Alexander Skarsgard, Nicole Kidman, and Ethan Hawke to the mix. Now there is a chance that Focus Features decides to play the long game with this in terms of theater counts and the box office plan. It’s scheduled for a wide release, but said wide release could be a smaller one focused on building buzz and establishing long legs rather than going for the big opening weekend. “The Lighthouse,” Egger’s most recent film, maxed out at 978 theaters after a smaller rollout. This could be bigger than that, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Focus is not too terribly concerned about having a large opening weekend as their marketing hasn’t been too aggressive yet.

April 29 – May 1 

Currently as I’m typing this, there’s no new wide releases scheduled for this final weekend of April. And that would kinda make sense as “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” is set to kick off the summer movie season in the first weekend of May, in true Marvel tradition. So studios tend to mostly avoid the final weekend of April before that happens. And that’s a smart move. You only have a week before you’re completely swallowed up.

That said, the sites I look at give me conflicting results on what’s going on with the latest Liam Neeson action movie “Memory,” as directed by Martin Campbell. So that may or may not be coming out. If it does, “Blacklight” in February opened to $3.5 million, while “The Marksman” opened to $3.1 in January 2021. So that’s the easy comparison for “Memory” if it does come out.

It’s also worth noting that A24 will be expanding the release “Everything Everywhere All At Once” throughout the month. It had a fantastic limited release opening on the final weekend of March, making $501,305 from just 10 theaters and so far has had phenomenal reviews. It’s set for a wide expansion on April 8, but also might be continually expanding as the month moves on and word of mouth continues to build.

Finally, we could always be in for some potential surprises. When I wrote my March preview, the calendar was mostly empty and I suggested some potential titles that could take advantage and have a surprise wide release. And that happened with “Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie” on March 18 and “RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt” on March 25, both of which had solid debuts ($18 million and $9 million respectively) and they weren’t even on my radar. “X” and “The Outfit” also wound up with semi-wide releases and did decently well and those were among the movies I did suggest could go wide. So just a reminder that this is not necessarily an all-encompassing post. I do my best to hit all of the major wide releases, but surprises sometimes happen, especially on weekends like this where nothing is scheduled.

The 94th Academy Awards: Predictions

The Oscars are tonight, so it’s definitely time for my annual Oscar post. I was going to get this out earlier in the week, but I got busy, then spent all of Saturday watching the shorts and typing this post. It took longer than I thought. So it’s here on day of the Oscars instead of day before. Oh well. The purpose of this post is twofold. One, I predict who is going to win each award. Two, I give you might thoughts on who I think deserves to win. This is simply just for fun. If I’m right, I’m right. If I’m wrong, then it’s OK. You can look at this and see what I was expecting. If my score ends up being horrible, that just means it was an eventful, surprising evening. And that can be exciting, depending, of course, on what the surprises were. And yes, we’re going through all 23 categories, even the ones that some, including the Oscars themselves, don’t seem to care about. I make that note because the Oscars are deciding this year not to present every award live, which is really frustrating to all of us who enjoy watching the Oscars. But it is what it is. Anyways, wish me luck on my picks, and, most importantly, I hope this post will inspire you to check out some of these movies! 

Documentary (Short Subject):

Nominations:

- “Audible” - Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean
- “Lead Me Home” - Pedros Kos and Jon Shenk
- “The Queen of Basketball” - Ben Proudfoot
- “Three Songs for Benzair” - Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei
- “When We Were Bullies” - Jay Rosenblatt 

Will Win 

- “Lead Me Home” - Pedros Kos and Jon Shenk

Should Win:

- “The Queen of Basketball” - Ben Proudfoot 

And we start with the shorts. These are actually some of my favorite categories. And the ones I’m pretty sure no one else in my circle watches, despite me always trying to convince people to check them out. So if you want to be a part of the cool club, hunt these down and give them a watch. It won’t take too much of your time. “Audible, “Lead Me Home,” and “Three Songs for Benzair” are all on Netflix. “The Queen of Basketball” is on the New York Times’ YouTube channel as one of their Op-Docs. “When We Were Bullies” is coming to HBO Max… on March 30. So it’s the one that I haven’t yet seen.

Now predicting which one is going to win is literally a shot in the dark. For some reason, I’m thinking one of the three Netflix documentaries has the best chance. And my gut tells me that “Lead Me Home,” which is about the homeless situation in Los Angeles, might connect most with voters? For me personally, “The Queen of Basketball” makes the best use of its time and is a delightful interview and story with the only woman drafted into the NBA. She didn’t join the team, but it’s still really cool that she was drafted. And I had no idea of her story prior to this. The others are great subjects, but could’ve been longer. “Audible” tries to stuff too much into 30 minutes, while “Lead Me Home” and “Three Songs for Benzair” didn’t seem to have enough content to put together a compelling narrative. More work and more footage could’ve helped them, in my opinion 

Short Film (Animated):

Nominations:

- “Affairs of the Art” - Joanna Quinn and Les Mills
- “Bestia” - Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz
- “Boxballet” - Anton Dyakov
- “Robin Robin” - Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
- “The Windshield Wiper” - Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez 

Will Win:

- “Robin Robin” - Dan Ojari and Mikey Please

Should Win:

- “Robin Robin” - Dan Ojari and Mikey Pleas 

This one’s gotta be “Robin Robin,” right? This is an Aardman short on Netflix. And Aardman is a studio that just doesn’t miss when it comes to quality animation, this cute 30-minute short about a robin raised by mice is one you’ve gotta watch, regardless of what actually wins this. Normally this is a category where Pixar and Disney do really well. But they didn’t get nominated this year, which is strange because I thought “Us Again,” which played in front of “Raya,” and “Far From the Tree,” which played in front of “Encanto,” were both really good. “Us Again” even made the short list, but missed the final five. “Bestia” and “Boxballet” have not been made available to watch, so I can’t speak on those, but “Affairs of the Art” and “The Windshield Wiper” are both on YouTube and are really bonkers. And I’m not so sure I mean that in a good way this time around. So yeah, “Robin Robin” is easily the best of the three that I’ve seen. And also one that just feels like will take home this Oscar. 

Short Film (Live Action):

Nominations:

- “Ala Kachuu - Take and Run” - Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger
- “The Dress” - Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Śleskicki
- “The Long Goodbye” - Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
- “On My Mind” - Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson
- “Please Hold” - K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse 

Will Win: 

- “The Long Goodbye” - Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed

Should Win:

- “Please Hold” - K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse 

Man, do they ever nominate happy films in this category? I’ll have to look back on my posts from previous years, but I feel like I’m always surprised by how dark and dreary these live action shorts are. And outside “Ala Kachuu,” they’re all available to be watched. “Please Hold” and “The Dress” are on HBO Max, while “The Long Goodbye” and “On My Mind” are on YouTube. Again, anything could win in this category, but this kinda does feel like the tea leaves are favoring “The Long Goodbye.” This is Riz Ahmed. He was deserving of a win in last year’s Oscars for “Sound of Metal,” he just happened to go up against Anthony Hopkins and Chadwick Boseman, so this could be the Academy’s chance to give him an Oscar, as he stars in and is a producer of this short. Plus this is a very politically charged short, which is the exact thing that won this last year. It’s not bad, but it’s definitely heavy on the shock value for me. “The Dress” and “On My Mind” are both very nice films, but are a tad bit depressing. “Please Hold” isn’t exactly a happy film either, but it reminded me of a “Black Mirror” episode, so I gravitated towards it the most. “Ala Kachuu” looked very good and very intense based on the trailer I watched, but again it’s not available to be watched at the moment.

International Feature Film:

Nominations:

- “Drive My Car” - Japan
- “Flee” - Denmark
- “The Hand of God” - Italy
- “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” - Bhutan
- “The Worst Person in the World” - Norway 

Will Win:

- “Drive My Car” - Japan

Should Win:

- “Drive My Car” - Japan

This might be the easiest prediction of the night. If someone had a gun at your head and said you have to get a prediction right or else the trigger will be pulled, this is the one you tell them. “Drive My Car” got a best picture, a best director, and a best adapted screenplay nomination. It’s not losing this category. “The Worst Person in the World” would be the shocking upset because it also got a screenplay nod, but it’s not going to happen. Although I wouldn’t be upset if it did. “The Worst Person in the World” is a really good film. I was very surprised by it. But “Drive My Car” is the best of the category. And surprisingly, almost all of them are available to be watched. “Drive My Car” is on HBO Max. “Flee” is on Hulu. “The Hand of God” is on Netflix. “The Worst Person in the World” is in theaters. “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” is the only one that’s not available, although that title makes me very curious to watch it. Of note, “Flee” is triple nominated in animated feature, international film, and documentary, so that gives it points, but if they decide to reward it, it won’t be in this category.

Documentary (Feature):

Nominations:

- “Ascension” - Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
- “Attica” - Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry
- “Flee” - Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Singe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
- “Summer of Soul (…or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” - Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson, Joseph Patel, Rovert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
- “Writing With Fire” - Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh 

Will Win:

- “Summer of Soul (…or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” - Ahmir "Questlove" Thompson, Joseph Patel, Rovert Fyvolent and David Dinerstei 

Should Win:

- “Flee” - Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Singe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie 

Speaking of “Flee,” if it wins something, this is where it would get the win. As said in the previous section, it’s a triple nominee. It’s a foreign language documentary where much of the footage is animated. It’s the story of a refugee fleeing the Taliban’s Afghanistan. They did animated footage of his experiences while he tells his story, so it’s a very unique documentary and a very powerful one at that. I would give it the win if it were up to. “Summer of Soul” is really good, too. It’s a documentary about the 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival. Although if I’m being picky, it’s more of a feat of editing. They found a bunch of never seen footage of this festival and edited it together into a documentary. So on that technicality, I’d give the win to “Flee,” but I do think “Summer of Soul” has more momentum right now. While I’m at it, “Attica” is a really interesting documentary about a prison riot. It’s on Amazon Prime. “Writing With Fire” debuts on PBS.org… on Monday. So I’ll give it a watch and update you later on what I thought. And “Ascension” is on Paramount+, which I do not have. I really love this category every year. Documentaries are always fun for me to watch!  

Music (Original Song):

Nominations 

- “Be Alive” - Beyoncé (From “King Richard”; Music and Lyrics by DIXON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter)
- “Dos Orguitas” - Sebastián Yatra (From “Encanto”; Music and Lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda)
- “Down to Joy” - Van Morrison (From “Belfast”; Music and Lyrics by Van Morrison)
- “No Time to Die” - Billie Eilish (From “No Time to Die”; Music and Lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)
- “Somehow You Do” - Reba McEntire (From “Four Good Days”; Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren) 

Will Win:

- “No Time to Die” - Billie Eilish (From “No Time to Die”; Music and Lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell)

Should Win:

- “No Time to Die” - Billie Eilish (From “No Time to Die”; Music and Lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell) 

When “No Time to Die” the song dropped in February 2020, I was like, “Wow, Billie. Well done.” When I heard it on context of the movie nearly two years later (delayed due to COVID, of course), I was like, “DAAAAANG girl!” Because this song is absolute fire. And not only that, when I look at this category, I like to pick a song that has the most impact on the film itself. Preferably something that weaves its way through the narrative. Most of these songs are good, but are end credit songs. “Dos Orguitas” is the other that comes at a key moment of the film that I would consider. But not only does “No Time to Die” perfectly introduce the Bond movie of the same name, but the themes of the song are constantly woven into the film. As are the song’s lyrical themes. So it’s a runaway favorite on my end. I even watched that silly “Four Good Days” film that no one’s heard of just for the song, which wound up as an end credits thing. One of these days they should give Diane Warren a win. But they should stop with the courtesy nominations for her and only nominate her if she actually has a solid chance to win from a film that is a major player. And if “Dos Orguitas” were to win here, Lin-Manuel Miranda would complete his EGOT (Emmy/Grammy/Oscar/Tony), but for now he waits. Billie has been winning everything in the precursors, steamrolling her way to Oscar, which she and Finneas will put right next to their giant Grammy collection. That’s half of an EGOT for them. I think Miranda would actually win if Disney had submitted “We Don’t Talk About Bruno,” but they didn’t, so a Bond song is going to win for the third straight time.

Music (Original Score):

Nominations: 

- “Don’t Look Up” - Nicholas Britell
- “Dune” - Hans Zimmer
- “Encanto” - Germaine Franco
- “Parallel Mothers” - Alberto Iglesias
- “The Power of the Dog” - Jonny Greenwood 

Will Win:

- “Dune” - Hans Zimmer 

Should Win:

- “Dune” - Hans Zimmer 

This is the first really hard choice. Not in terms of what I want to win. That “Dune” score by Hans Zimmer is fire. One of his best, which says a lot because he’s written a lot of iconic scores. Surprisingly his only other win came from “The Lion King,” which is not what I would’ve guessed, but I think he’s due for his second Oscar. The challenge I’m having right now is that Jonny Greenwood score from “The Power of the Dog.” If this night goes very good for “The Power of the Dog,” I think this is a category where Greenwood could steal the Oscar from Zimmer. By the way, it’s also a really good score. Very heavy on the horns, which I appreciate since that’s the instrument I played in high school. The “Don’t Look Up” score is also surprisingly good on a re-listen. Very bombastic and loud, which reflects the tone of the movie. “Encanto” and “Parallel Mothers” scores are solid, too, but feel like more traditional film scores rather than something that pop out. But do you know what? I’m going to say Hans Zimmer takes this. When in doubt, predict “Dune” in the technical categories and you’ll probably be right. But I’m definitely not confident in that pick. 

Visual Effects:

Nominations:

- “Dune” - Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
- “Free Guy” - Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
- “No Time to Die” - Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
- “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” - Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
- “Spider-Man: No Way Home” - Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick 

Will Win:

- “Dune” - Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer 

Should Win:

- “Dune” - Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer

Easy. “Dune” wins this one walking away. And it’s very deserved. I’m one of those weird ones who have the complaint that “Dune” is only half of a movie. And I feel like the threw me right into the fire with some very heavy lore that I drowned in. I didn’t know what was going on for 90 percent of the movie. But one thing that was not in question was that it was a visual masterpiece. An absolutely stunning work of art. And yeah, I’m very well aware that my opinions of the movie itself could change once we see the sequels, but we’ll have to wait and see officially what happens there. But nevertheless, it’ll be a very deserving winner over our other Blockbuster courtesy nominations. Which, by the way, I am one of those people who think “Spider-Man: No Way Home” deserved 5-10 nominations, including a best picture. Not because it NEEDS it for the recognition, but because we should be nominating the year’s best films, regardless of genre or box office. The fact that Marvel can only get visual effects nominations unless they’re making something culturally relevant like “Black Panther” is very insulting. Their best films deserve to dominate at the Oscars. Fight me on that. 

Sound:

Nominations:

- “Belfast” - Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
- “Dune” - Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Dough Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
- “No time to Die” - Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
- “The Power of the Dog” - Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
- “West Side Story” - Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy 

Will Win:

- “Dune” - Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Dough Hemphill and Ron Bartlett 

Should Win:

- “Dune” - Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Dough Hemphill and Ron Bartlett 

Yeah, I’m defaulting to “Dune” here again. And I’m also kinda glad they combined the sound categories. It makes it less confusing. What I will say here is that “A Quiet Place: Part II” should’ve been in here, with at least a nomination. I know the Oscars are allergic to both horror films and sequels, but there was still no better use of sound in a film in 2021 than “A Quiet Place: Part II.” It was just as effective as the first movie on that front.

Makeup and Hairstyling:

Nominations: 

- “Coming 2 America” - Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
- “Cruella” - Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
- “Dune” - Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bah
- “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” - Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
- “House of Gucci” - Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras 

Will Win:

- “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” - Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh 

Should Win:

- “Cruella” - Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon 

By the looks of things, it appears that they’re pairing this category right along with the best actress race. And yeah, half of Jessica Chastain’s performance in that movie was the incredible makeup work they did. More on that later, though. While I will admit that the makeup work in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” was really good, despite not much of anything else in that movie being worth anything, I still prefer the work in “Cruella.” Sure, costume design is the real strength of “Cruella,” but there was still a lot of excellent makeup and hairstyling going on the movie, especially in regards to Emma Stone’s look. I mean, transforming Emma into Cruella was more than just the dresses. But I’ll have to be content with one win for “Cruella.” Just as long as we keep the Oscar far away from “House of Gucci” I’ll be happy. 

Film Editing: 

Nominations: 

- “Don’t Look Up” - Hank Corwin
- “Dune” - Joe Walker
- “King Richard” - Pamela Martin
- “The Power of the Dog” - Peter Sciberras
- “tick, tick… BOOM!” - Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum 

Will Win: 

- “King Richard” - Pamela Martin 

Should Win:

-  “tick, tick… BOOM!” - Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum 

Another really tough category. Yeah, as I said, it’s easy to default to “Dune” for the technical categories, but I do feel editing often goes to a best picture nominee. So as you can see, it’s not “Dune” vs. “The Power of the Dog” I’m fighting between here. It’s “Power of the Dog” vs. “King Richard” and possibly “tick, tick… BOOM!” At the ACE Eddie Awards (American Cinema Editors), “King Richard” won drama and “tick, tick… BOOM!” won comedy. That makes me think of 2020 when “Ford v. Ferrari” took this one home. You know, the sports sequences. And the Tennis matches in this movie were genuinely incredible and well edited. I almost went with that in my personal picks, but the editing in “tick, tick… BOOM!” was what made the movie. I usually don’t immediately recognize the editing in a movie, but in that one I did, with how they interwove all of the layers of that film into one masterwork of filmmaking. When I saw its nomination, I thought that meant it was also getting picture, but sadly “Nightmare Alley” took its place instead, which made me grumpy. But all is well. Again, if “The Power of the Dog” is having a great night, it might walk away with this one, which is why I’m torn. 

Costume Design: 

Nominations: 

- “Cruella” - Jenny Beavean
- “Cyrano” - Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
- “Dune” - Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
- “Nightmare Alley” - Luis Sequiera
- “West Side Story” - Paul Tazewell 

Will Win: 

- “Cruella” - Jenny Beavean

Should Win:

- “Cruella” - Jenny Beavean 

You know, we could just say that “Cruella” is winning this award and is 100 percent deserving and move onto the next category. And while it is true that it’s the best of the bunch, as I look over these nominees, this is a great category. In my re-watch of “West Side Story” this week, the costume design really won me over. I haven’t seen “Cyrano” yet, but that’s a cool nomination, too, just looking at the trailers. And even though I don’t like “Nightmare Alley,” both the set design and the costume work to deliver an old-fashioned carnival theme were great. And the costume work in “Dune” is perhaps a bit overlooked, too. Sometimes we take for granted all the work that goes in on many levels in making those blockbusters work. It’s a lot more than just visual effects. I think Marvel and DC should be in this category more than they are. 

Cinematography 

Nominations: 

- “Dune” - Greig Fraser
- “Nightmare Alley” - Dan Laustsen
- “The Power of the Dog” - Ari Wegner
- “The Tragedy of Macbeth” - Dbruno Delbeonnel
- “West Side Story” - Janusz Kaminski 

Will Win: 

- “Dune” - Greig Fraser

Should Win:

- “Dune” - Greig Fraser 

Another easy win for “Dune,” I think. Again, a visual and technical masterpiece. Although, again, this is a really solid category. If I had all the time in the world, it would be fun to go back and watch all of these movies focusing specifically on the cinematography. And I feel I would be blown away five times over. “The Power of the Dog” could play spoiler. And if it does, it’s the first female winner in this category, which would be awesome. I almost want it to win because of that, but if I’m being purely objective, I want to judge by the final product, not by who is the one doing the work. And Greig Fraser’s work is truly mindblowing. And I think he’s going to be back here next year, too, as he also did some absolutely incredible work on “The Batman,” which I certainly hope gets showered with nominations next year. 

Production Design: 

Nominations: 

- “Dune” - Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos  
- “Nightmare Alley” - Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
- “The Power of the Dog” - Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
- “The Tragedy of Macbeth” - Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
- “West Side Story” - Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo 

Will Win: 

- “Dune” - Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos 

Should Win:

- “West Side Story” - Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo 

Another win for “Dune.” And another well-deserved win for “Dune.” However, I stumped myself when I sat down to think of this. This is another great category. I was close to giving my award to “Nightmare Alley” for the carnival work or “The Power of the Dog” for the western transformation. Then I thought about the great work in “Dune” as well. However, I recently watched both version of “West Side Story” this week and I was absolutely blown away by how Spielberg took the classic movie and vastly improved upon it. I mean, the old movie felt very restricted and limited with its budget. It almost felt like a filmed play. However, Spielberg took the scenery and the settings and made that the star of the show. Just about every musical number was vastly improved in the new movie because of the production design, set decoration, dance choreography, and costume work. Even the cinematography was great. I wouldn’t mind at all if it stole some of these technical awards away from “Dune.” I don’t think that’s happening. But I wouldn’t be upset is all I’m saying. 

Animated Feature Film:

Nominations: 

- “Encanto” - Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer (Walt Disney Animation Studios)
- “Flee” - Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Singe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
- “Luca” - Enrco Carosa and Andrea Warren (Pixar Animation Studios)
- “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” - Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht (Sony Pictures Animation)
- “Raya and the Last Dragon” - Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho (Walt Disney Animation Studios) 

Will Win: 

- “Encanto” - Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer (Walt Disney Animation Studios) 

Should Win:

- “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” - Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht (Sony Pictures Animation) 

I’ve actually been hearing rumblings in the last few weeks that we could be in for an upset in this category. “Encanto” at first seems like it was going to run away with this award, especially when the “Encanto” hype was through the roof back in late December and January. But “Encanto” buzz has died down a bit and “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” seems to be gaining traction, especially as Mike Rianda has been doing some real work in pushing this film, all that during the time when the Oscar voting was opened. I’m not going to be brave enough to call the upset, but I’ll be pushing for it. I really enjoyed “Encanto,” but “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” was one my favorite movies overall last year, animated or not. In fact, I had it in my top five. To heck with best animated feature, I think this deserves a best picture nomination, even if there were only five nominees. It’s that good. On par with “Spider-Verse,” a fellow Sony Pictures Animation movie. If you haven’t seen this movie yet, watch it ASAP. 

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): 

Nominations: 

- “CODA” - Siân Heder
- “Drive My Car” - Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takmesa Oe
- “Dune” - Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
- “The Lost Daughter” - Maggie Gyllenhaal
- “The Power of the Dog” - Jane Campion 

Will Win: 

- “CODA” - Siân Heder 

Should Win:

- “The Power of the Dog” – Jane Campion 

I love “CODA.” It’s my favorite of the best picture nominees and my No. 2 film of 2021. But I will admit that it’s not the screenplay that makes it work. It’s kinda a traditional coming of age movie. I think it’s the emotion and the execution of the screenplay that makes it shine. Not what’s on the page that the actors were reading. That said, I do think that the momentum has started to shift in its way and I think it could pull off wins in every category it’s in. Or they could go “Drive My Car” or “The Lost Daughter.” Sometimes they do that with the screenplay category, give it to a movie that’s not winning best picture just to give it something. Or it could go to “The Power of the Dog” if that movie is having a great night. As you can say, in this category that’s what I’ve leaned on, although I got really stumped with this category. Ultimately I think the screenplay in “The Power of the Dog” is one of the movie’s strengths. The plot of that movie is genius, especially with how it’s a movie within a movie that you don’t notice until you’ve finished the movie and need to re-watch. That’s some powerful writing and directing on the part of Jane Campion that makes that work. And I think she deserves both awards. 

Writing (Original Screenplay):

Nominations: 

- “Belfast” - Kenneth Branagh
- “Don’t Look Up” - Adam McKay and David Sirota
- “King Richard” - Zach Baylin
- “Licorice Pizza” - Paul Thomas Anderson
- “The Worst Person in the World” - Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier 

Will Win: 

- “Belfast” - Kenneth Branagh 

Should Win:

- “The Worst Person in the World” - Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier 

With “CODA” and “The Power of the Dog” in the OTHER writing category, I think that opens the door for “Belfast” to take this award. And I think it’s a much easier prediction here. I think the Academy likes Kenneth Branagh and they want to reward his film. And this is where they’re going to do it. For my pick, this is quite easily “The Worst Person in the World.” That’s another movie where the plot is what’s genius. With how it started, I thought I knew where it was going, then it threw me for a loop and punched me in the gut with some genius writing work with that screenplay. Easily better than the others. I don’t think “Belfast” or “King Richard” have remarkable screenplays even though the movies are fun. “Don’t Look Up” is a hilarious romp, but doesn’t deserve Oscars. And “Licorice Pizza” is a bit of a train wreck in many areas, stemming from a lot of the writing, not just with the awkward age gap, but also with those racist scenes. PTA wrote those sequences into his screenplay. I know he deserves an Oscar at some point, but not for this. 

Actress in a Supporting Role: 

Nominations: 

- Jessie Buckley - “The Lost Daughter”
- Ariana DeBose - “West Side Story”
- Judi Dench - “Belfast”
- Kirsten Dunst - “The Power of the Dog”
- Aunjanue Ellis - “King Richard” 

Will Win: 

- Ariana DeBose - “West Side Story” 

Should Win:

- Aunjanue Ellis - “King Richard” 

Three of the four acting categories are actually pretty cut and dry. We could see some surprises on Oscar night, but I don’t think we’ll see those surprises in the acting realm, with best actress being the exception. But we’ll get that. As far as supporting actress, it’s set in stone. And it was decided months ago, I think. Ariana DeBose is winning an Oscar for the same role that Rita Morena won it for 50 years ago. And Ariana might even have a better performance under her belt than Morena, which is some high praise from me. And thus might surprise you to see me not pick her. I know, it’s tough. But Aunjanue Ellis is the heart and soul of “King Richard.” It’s her that carries the movie. Not Will Smith. I have no problem giving Will an Oscar. He did a great job at portraying the rather arrogant and dominate personality of Richard Williams, but Aunjanue as his wife Brandy is the only character that could knock some sense into him and in several sequences I had my jaw on the floor after her scenes. And hearing from Venus and Serena themselves in interviews and awards speeches say how perfectly she portrayed their mother really put it over the edge for me. Will’s Oscar is a lifetime achievement. Aunjanue gives the best performance of the movie. 

Actor in a Supporting Role: 

Nominations:

- Ciarán Hinds - “Belfast”
- Troy Kotsur - “CODA”
- Jesse Plemons - “The Power of the Dog”
- J.K. Simmons - “Being the Ricardos”
- Kodi Smit-McPhee - “The Power of the Dog” 

Will Win:

 - Troy Kotsur - “CODA”

Should Win:

- Troy Kotsur - “CODA” 

It has made me very happy in the last month or so that Troy Kotsur has become the runaway favorite in this category. It started as Ciarán Hinds as the predicted favorite, then shifted towards Kodi Smit-McPhee around nomination time. But then Troy Kotsur started winning things. And then he started winning literally everything. Sure, Hinds and Smit-McPhee aren’t necessarily out of it, but I think Smit-McPhee and Plemons might be splitting the vote among the fans of “The Power of the Dog” and “Belfast” has seemingly fallen out of favor in the awards race. If it was winning best picture, Hinds would follow it. But this is Troy Kotsur’s to lose and I’m incredibly happy. I do think Hinds would be an excellent win. The best part of “Belfast” for me. But Simmons has already won an Oscar. Plemons and Smit-McPhee have long careers ahead of them. But with Troy Kotsur, him as a deaf actor playing in a movie about a deaf family and their hearing daughter is a once in a lifetime opportunity when it comes to awards. I don’t know how many other roles perfectly fitted towards him that he’s going to get in movies about deaf people that are getting heavily praised. Add that to the fact that he’s the best part of the movie and the fact that I believe he’s the best of the five and this would be the no-brainer pick for me even if he wasn’t the heavy favorite. 

Actress in a Leading Role: 

Nominations: 

- Jessica Chastain - “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
- Olivia Colman - “The Lost Daughter”
- Penélope Cruz - “Parallel Mothers”
- Nicole Kidman - “Being the Ricardos”
- Kristen Stewart - “Spencer” 

Will Win: 

- Jessica Chastain - “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” 

Should Win:

- Kristen Stewart - “Spencer” 

And this is the most bonkers award of the season. Oftentimes you look at the precursors to see what’s going to happen. And in the case of the other categories, the precursors are what’s making me feel confident in my predictions. But in this case, the precursors have been all over the place. No one is in any real agreement as to who is deserving of a win. There was even some heavy misses. The BAFTAs, for example, had no nominees in common with the Oscars. When those nominations came out, people thought Gaga was the new front-runner, but she didn’t even get a nomination from the Oscars. Then if we back up, Kristen Stewart initially seemed like the favorite. Until she started missing and barely got in. Nicole Kidman became the front-runner. Then it was Gaga for a second, like mentioned. Then people thought maybe Olivia Colman might be getting her second Oscar win. I’ve even heard people think that Penélope Cruz could be a spoiler, even though she wasn’t nominated in anything else. Recently it seems like Jessica Chastain has risen above the rest, winning at SAG and Critic Choice. So that’s what I’m going with, but really any of the five could win and I wouldn’t be surprised. 

That said, with who I want to win, I actually think Jodie Comer from “The Last Duel” gave the best lead actress performance of the year. But for some reason that movie got no love at awards season, despite having great reviews and being released at the proper time. Now I wouldn’t be upset at a Chastain win. She’s also one of my favorite actresses and is far overdue for an Oscar. But yeah, with these nominees it’s not even close. I am 1,000 percent on the Kristen Stewart train. Her performance as Princess Diana was perfect in every way. And this should be her third or fourth Oscar nomination, not just her first. So I’ve been pushing her for years and am glad to see her finally getting it. If she wins, that will be the award that I would be happiest about, but all of these ladies are deserving, so I’m not going to be mad. 

Actor in a Leading Role: 

Nominations: 

- Javier Bardem - “Being the Ricardos”
- Benedict Cumberbatch - “The Power of the Dog”
- Andrew Garfield - “tick, tick… BOOM!”
- Will Smith - “King Richard”
- Denzel Washington - “The Tragedy of Macbeth” 

Will Win: 

- Will Smith - “King Richard” 

Should Win:

- Andrew Garfield - “tick, tick… BOOM!” 

This category is a lot less complex, so only one paragraph. Every year there’s at least one actor or actress that everyone seems to unanimously decide to coronate. And there’s been absolutely no disagreements when it comes to this award. Will Smith was the favorite at the beginning of the season. And he got nominated everywhere. And has won every award. At least when it comes to the major precursors that mean anything. And I’m totally fine with it. Will Smith is one of the world’s best and favorite actors. And has been since the 90s. He deserves his trophy. And he gave a solid enough performance for me to not be mad. And all his speeches have been excellent, which I think has strengthened his case. But as I said earlier, Aunjanue Ellis was my favorite part of that movie. My choice for this category is also not nominated. I think Nicolas Cage from “Pig” gave the best lead acting performance. But as he’s not on here, I’m on team Garfield. For this performance alone he deserves it. “tick, tick… BOOM!” was in my top 10 of 2021 and it was because of Garfield. That and the whole Spider-Man thing makes him deserving. He deserves an Oscar for that campaign alone. The way he convincingly lied to everyone was great, despite being constantly pestered about being in the movie. 

Directing: 

Nominations: 

- Kenneth Branagh - “Belfast”
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi - “Drive My Car”
- Paul Thomas Anderson - “Licorice Pizza”
- Jane Campion - “The Power of the Dog”
- Steven Spielberg - “West Side Story” 

Will Win: 

- Jane Campion - “The Power of the Dog” 

Should Win:

- Jane Campion - “The Power of the Dog” 

The movie that’s winning best picture has been a heavy debate. The movie that is winning best director is not. This used to be a category that would go to the best picture winner every year, but recently that’s split fairly often. Given that CODA isn’t in here, Jane Campion is running away with this, with Kenneth Branagh a very distant second place. The only knock on her is that she said something really stupid when she accepted her Critics Choice award and that was right before the Oscar voting started, or possibly during. But I don’t think that will hurt her enough that she loses when there really isn’t much competition. Maybe if Siân Heder, we could debate. But she’s not. And I do think Campion is deserving here. As I said in the screenplay section, the way that “The Power of the Dog” was a movie within a movie made for a very complex film that worked because of some great writing and even better directing. She had to fool people on the first watch, then blow their minds on a second watch. And she had to direct everything and everyone perfectly in order to make it work in the way that it did. 

Best Picture:

Nominations: 

- “Belfast” - Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers (Focus Features)
- “CODA” - Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers (Apple TV+)
- “Don’t Look Up” - Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers (Netflix)
- “Drive My Car” - Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer (Bitter End)
- “Dune” - Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers (Warner Bros.)
- “King Richard” - Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers (Warner Bros.)
- “Licorice Pizza” - Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers (United Artists)
- “Nightmare Alley” - Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers (Searchlight Pictures)
- “The Power of the Dog” - Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers (Netflix)
- “West Side Story” - Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers (20th Century Studios)

Will Win:

- “CODA” - Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers (Apple TV+ 

Should Win:

- “CODA” - Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers (Apple TV+)

Very daring of me to predict my favorite of the nominees to win best picture. I’m setting myself up for failure. And I almost predicted “The Power of the Dog” just because of that. But do you know what? Screw you, curse. My favorite movie has never won best picture in the time of me following the Oscars. And that curse continues because I declared “The Father” as my favorite movie of 2021. But as “The Father” was eligible for last year’s ceremony, despite being a 2021 release, it obviously wasn’t here, so the curse doesn’t apply. Or it already continued with both “Promising Young Woman” and “The Father” both losing to “Nomadland” last year. My No. 2 film of the year HAS won a few times before, with “12 Years a Slave,” “Birdman,” and “Spotlight” as examples. So CODA being my No. 2 film is positive thing, right?

That ridiculousness aside, this is really a tough choice. I started typing this post with the idea that I would be predicting “The Power of the Dog,” simply because it got 12 nominees and has been the front-runner for most of the season. But “CODA” now has the momentum and is actually kinda the front-runner right now. It’s had several big wins in the last few weeks that has put it ahead. And one of the things that trips me up every year is the ranked choice voting that the Oscars do for best picture. Without spending too long on that, it’s not the movie that people love the most that wins. It’s the movie that’s hated the least. You have to get 50 percent of the votes. And if that doesn’t happen, they eliminate the last place vote getter and give those votes to whatever was next on those ballots. So the initial vote of most No. 1s isn’t as important as what movie has the most number of 2s and 3s on people’s ballots. CODA is a lot less of a divisive film than “The Power of the Dog.” And in a moment in time where the world around us is crazy, people might want to have a feel-good drama win best picture rather than a darker revenge thriller.

If “The Power of the Dog” wins, that means it probably won on the first round or two of voting. The further we get into the ensuing rounds, the better the chance that “CODA” has. We’ll never know how that turned out, but you can guess what happened after we hear the result. Also, if “The Power of the Dog” wins best picture, I also think it’s taking home a lot of the other categories. I can’t see it winning just picture and director. And when I went through each category, my gut said to go somewhere else with my pick. And so we get to best picture and I felt I had to go “CODA.” If “CODA” loses, then I’m fine with that. Ever since it became front-runner, there’s been a heavy wave of hate that has hit it, which is ridiculous. So maybe it’s not good for it to win best picture? Anyways, we’ll see here really soon.