The 97th Academy Awards: Predictions

It’s once again time for the Academy Awards! As you may or may not be aware of, I’m pretty nerdy when it comes to awards season. I follow the awards buzz all year long, with several podcasts I listen to, along with following many people over on Twitter. So Oscar night is always one of my favorite nights of the year. And as such, this is one of my favorite posts that I do each year. I go through every single category here listing the nominees, then I make my prediction of who will win as well as my pick for who I think should win. With the latter, I basically treat it as if I had an Oscar ballot. And with that, I do my absolute best to see as many nominees as I can before making my pick. Ultimately this all means nothing, but it’s a lot of fun for me, so I enjoy this as a yearly project. The final FINAL way to wrap up the previous year in movies.

If I end up being way off with my picks, then all is well. I’m the only one that will remember. In a way, this stands as a gauge of how predictable things ended up being. And sometimes it can be fun for things to be unpredictable. And let me tell you, this could be one of those seasons that could very well end up like that. There’s no way I can do the whole season justice in a paragraph or two, but there never was a strong front runner. One could say it was a weaker year for awards season. And I personally think that’s accurate to a degree. But it also made it fun to follow. Instead of having a movie like “Oppenheimer” come through and sweep through everything, like was the case last year, the winds have blown a lot of different ways. About half of the movies in the best picture lineup have had their turn being the “front runner.” You’ll see where I think we’ve landed on. But even several of the people who I follow the closest have very different opinions of what’s going to happen. So I just have to go with my gut. You can follow the precursors. You can listen to what others are saying. You can look at the odds on Gold Derby. But even with all of that, this still might be the least confident I’ve been going into Oscar night. And that’s kind of excited!

Anyways, this post is always long, but the goal is to have it organized in a way that makes it easy to scroll through. You can read through my whole commentary or just glance through my picks. It’s up to you! But if you have any thoughts, comments, or predictions of your own, I’d love to hear them!

Documentary Short Film

Nominations

- “Death By Numbers” – Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard
- “I Am Ready, Warden” – Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp
- “Incident” – Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven
- “Instruments of a Beating Heart” – Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari
- “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” – Molly O'Brien and Lisa Remington

Will Win

- “Incident” – Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven

Should Win

- “Instruments of a Beating Heart” – Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari

We start here with the shorts. And honestly, even though these are the categories that are often looked over, I have a lot of fun watching them. They’re usually pretty good and pretty easy to go through, given that they are… shorts. The issue is accessibility. You’ll see that the other two categories were fairly inaccessible. These ones were available to be watched. Four of the five, anyways. I couldn’t find “Death by Numbers,” but the other four are on either Paramount+, Neftlix, or YouTube. As far as what I think is going to win. Well, that’s often quite impossible. You almost have to just pick one out of a hat. Or in this category, try to predict which hot button topic you think the Academy will go for. You have school shootings (“Death By Numbers”), police brutality (“Incident”), and the death penalty (“I Am Ready, Warden”) as options this year. I’m taking my shot in the predictions with “Incident,” which looks at direct footage compiled from another police shooting of a man back in 2018 who definitely did not pose a threat or even pull out his gun, but got killed anyways. With my personal pick, though, I went through all these heavy short documentaries, then had my heart melt with “Instruments of a Beating Heart,” which follows a class of young school kids practicing for a musical performance. Maybe it’s the band nerd in me, but this was just delightful. And hey, it’s quite possible that some Oscar voters reacted that way, too?

Animated Short Film

Nominations

- “Beautiful Men” – Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Ban Elslande
- “In the Shadow of the Cypress” – Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi
- “Magic Candies” – Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio
- “Wander to Wonder” – Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper
- “Yuck!” – Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet

Will Win

- “Magic Candies” – Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio

Should Win

- N/A

This is usually the category of shorts that’s the most accessible. But in this case, none of these were available to be watched or streamed on the internet or a streaming service. I found that odd. You had to make the trek out to the theaters to watch them. And I did not make that trek. So I have not watched any of them. In which case, it makes it hard to predict how this will go. So I did my very unscientific approach of looking at the vote totals and scores for each on IMDb and Letterboxd. And I know that’s not indicative of Oscar voters. But if I can see a trend of general reaction, that’s sometimes carried over? In which case, it seems like “Magic Candies” has the slight heads up, followed by “In the Shadow of the Cypress.” So I went for “Magic Candies.” Funny enough, the Gold Derby odds claim “Yuck!” is the favorite. I don’t want to make my predictions based on Gold Derby. That seems boring. But that does seem to indicate that no one knows what’s going to happen here. Pick one and hope you’re right.

Live Action Short Film

Nominations

- “A Lien” – Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz
- “Anuja” – Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai
- “I’m Not a Robot” – Victoria Warmerdam and Trent
- “The Last Ranger” – Cindey Lee and Darwin Shaw
- “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” – Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek

Will Win

- “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” – Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek

Should Win

- N/A

The top three of these are available to be watched. I have not gotten around to them. I’ll confess that I ran out of time and didn’t want to wait any longer to get this post out. But yet the bottom two are not available, anyways. And that last one seems like the favorite based on my unscientific approach of looking at IMDb and Letterboxd scores. It’s also the Gold Derby favorite. And if I’m not capable of watching the one that seems most likely to win, then it doesn’t feel right for me to make a personal judgment call based on half of them. So I didn’t bother. Again, I can see any of these winning. I’ve often gone 0 for 3 with the shorts, so let’s see how lucky I get this time around.

International Feature Film

Nominations

- “I’m Still Here” – Brazil
- “The Girl with the Needle” – Denmark
- “Emilia Pérez” – France
- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” – Germany
- “Flow” – Latvia

Will Win

- “I’m Still Here” – Brazil

Should Win

- “Flow” – Latvia

Funny enough, this is usually one of the categories where I don’t make a personal pick, just because it often happens where the international contenders haven’t had had wide U.S. distribution. But I did manage to see three of these. And even though “The Girl with the Needle” and “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” are the two I haven’t seen, and thus I kinda feel guilty making a personal pick without having seen them, I loved “Flow” so much that I’m confident it will remain my favorite. It’s on Max now, so go watch it. As far as the predicted winner, this is where we could have a very long conversation about “Emilia Pérez,” which roared onto the scene on Oscar nomination day with 13 nominations, leading all movies and being one away from the all-time record. Clearly Oscar voters love the movie. But not too long after the nominations came out, the controversy surrounding the film roared even louder. That hurt the movie bad, but what officially tanked the movie’s chances were a string of comments made by the movie’s lead, Karla Sofía Gascón. Suddenly the movie went from best picture winner to a movie where the Academy may feel guilty that they gave it so many nominations. At one point it was a slam dunk to at least win this category, but now this is a toss up. I still think that “Emilia Pérez” could win here. But if you haven’t explored Twitter recently, there is a massive Army in support of “I’m Still Here.” And for good reason. The movie is excellent! And it’s also a best picture nominee, which makes me feel somewhat safe in going with the momentum. But as with many categories, this feels like a coin flip. Let’s see if I flipped the right coin.

Documentary Feature Film

Nominations

- “Black Box Diaries” – Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari and Hanna Aqvilin
- “No Other Land” – Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham
- “Porcelain War” – Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska and Paula DuPre' Pesmen
- “Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat” – Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius and Rémi Grellety
- “Sugarcane” – Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn

Will Win

- “No Other Land” – Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham

Should Win

- N/A

The best documentary I watched from this last year was “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story.” It did not get nominated. I’ve also heard great things about “Will & Harper” and “Daughters.” They also did not get nominated. So this was a weird year for this category. Also, the middle three there are not available for me to watch, which disappointed me because I love going through the documentaries. I did watch “Black Box Diaries” and “Sugarcane.” Of those two, I’d take “Black Box Diaries,” but I won’t make an official pick. Using my unscientific method for the shorts, “No Other Land” is miles ahead of the gang in terms of general reaction, and has also done really well in the precursors leading up to the Oscars. So it seems like the winner. It’s about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. When it’s available to be watched, I’ll definitely watch it. If there’s an upset, “Porcelain War” is about Ukraine. So pick your foreign conflict that you think Academy voters will go for. Both feel super relevant. And it doesn’t feel like any of these are easy watches, so there’s not really a “feel good” choice for voters to fall back on.

Music (Original Song)

Nominations

- “El Mal” – Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón and Camille (From “Emilia Pérez”; Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
- “The Journey” – H.E.R. (from “The Six Triple Eight”; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
- “Like a Bird” – Adrian Quesada and Abraham Alexander (from “Sing Sing”; Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada)
- “Mi Camino” – Selena Gomez (From “Emilia Pérez”; Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol)
- “Never Too Late” – Elton John and Brandi Carlile (From “Elton John: Never Too Late”; Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin)

Will Win

- “El Mal” – Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón and Camille (From “Emilia Pérez”; Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)

Should Win

- “Mi Camino” – Selena Gomez (From “Emilia Pérez”; Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol)

Just give Diane Warren her Oscar, already! And this is the perfect year to do it, as this category is pretty weak. All decent songs, but there’s not one that jumps out at you. Sure, the Diane Warren song is from an obscure Netflix movie as opposed to a major best picture contender. But the song is good enough and people like H.E.R., right? No one will be upset that a song that she sang became the time that Diane Warren won her Oscar. That said, maybe I’m a hypocrite because I didn’t vote for it here, either. And yes, I’m giving an Oscar to “Emilia Pérez.” No, it’s not the song that’s been winning everything else. But that Selena Gomez song is really good. I literally paused the movie when the song played and immediately added it to my Apple Music library. I’ve been listening to it on repeat every since. Say what you want about the movie. And I’ll probably agree. But I liked a lot of the music and that song was the best one, even if it wasn’t the song that impacted the plot very much. But “El Mal” was a fun sequence and Zoe went all in when she performed it in the movie, so I’m fine with it winning.

Music (Original Score)

Nominations

- “The Brutalist” – Daniel Blumberg
- “Conclave” – Volker Bertelmann
- “Emilia Pérez” – Clément Ducol and Camille
- “Wicked” – John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
- “The Wild Robot” – Kris Bowers

Will Win

- “The Brutalist” – Daniel Blumberg

Should Win

- “The Brutalist” – Daniel Blumberg

“Challengers” is the correct answer. And I’m really mad that the movie as a whole got goose-egged on nomination morning, when it could’ve easily and probably should’ve been a double digit nominated movie. Picture, director, screenplay, three acting nominations, and a whole bunch of technical stuff. But the score was the best part of the movie and the best score I heard all year. The crazy thing is that Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross did the score and they’ve become Oscar darlings, so I have no idea why they were snubbed. It was the snub that made me the most angry. But OK. Fine. Of the ones that did get in… I believe this is going to “The Brutalist.” I’m not sure exactly how well that movie is going to do, but this seems like it’s most guaranteed win here. And even though I didn’t care for the movie itself, the score is one thing that stood out to me. Brady Corbet tried to make an epic feature and I think he failed in many ways, but Daniel Blumberg understood the assignment and made a score that almost convinced me that I was watching a good movie. Going through all of them again while driving around, “Wicked” and “The Wild Robot” are your tradition run-of-the-mill movie scores. Nothing wrong with that. But not scores that stand out. “Emilia Pérez” is better than you might think, but that movie is mostly focused on songs, not score. So for me it came down to “The Brutalist” vs. “Conclave.” And it was close for my personal choice, but I think “The Brutalist” had a little more variety overall.

Visual Effects

Nominations

- “Alien: Romulus” – Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan
- “Better Man” – Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs
- “Dune: Part Two” – Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer
- “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” – Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke
- “Wicked” – Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould

Will Win

- “Dune: Part Two” – Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer

Should Win

- “Dune: Part Two” – Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer

As I look back on the 2024 awards season, this is a year that “Dune: Part Two” should’ve dominated. And the door was wide open for it to do so. But there’s a lot of strategic campaigning and politics that go into having a successful awards run. And for a handful of reasons I think Warner Bros. completely dropped the ball when it came to the campaign for “Dune: Part Two.” And putting it out in March instead of November didn’t help it, either. And that’s reflected in “Part Two” only getting five nominations total, when “Part One” got 10 nominations. And won six of those. “Part Two” should be sweeping these technical categories. And for good reason. But I’m not even confident in it winning here, which should be a home run for here. There’s a lot of monkeys and apes in this category and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those steals this Oscar away from “Dune.”

Sound

Nominations

- “A Complete Unknown” – Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco
- “Dune: Part Two” – Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill
- “Emilia Pérez” – Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta
- “Wicked” – Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis
- “The Wild Robot” – Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo and Leff Lefferts

Will Win

- “Dune: Part Two” – Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill

Should Win

- “Dune: Part Two” – Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill

I mean, cut and paste what I said in this previous category about “Dune: Part Two.” It should win this, no question. But I have seen some people predicting “Wicked.” Or even “A Complete Unknown.” And I think to a degree that’s confusing sound design with the music. I mean, there’s three music-themed movies in this category – two musicals and a musical biopic. I don’t think that’s the spirit of this category. But I works, I suppose. Granted, this used to be two categories. Sound mixing and sound editing. No one really knew what those meant, sadly. And even less so since it became “best sound.” What’s really missing here is “Civil War.” I mean, talk about botched campaigns. A24 didn’t even try on that one. It got zero nominations when it should’ve at least picked up a whole bunch of these techs.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominations

- “A Different Man” – Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado
- “Emilia Pérez” – Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini
- “Nosferatu” – David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton
- “The Substance” – Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli
- “Wicked” – Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth

Will Win

- “The Substance” – Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli

Should Win

- “The Substance” – Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli

I can’t necessarily recommend that you go watch “The Substance.” It’s a bit of an ask. Unless you really enjoy body horror. In which case, I hope you’ve already seen it. The movie is an absolute riot with one of the craziest and most bonkers third acts I’ve seen. And that’s relevant to this particular conversation because this might be my easiest pick I’ve made on this post for reasons I’m not going to tell you if you don’t know why. This is not the type of movie that usually becomes an Oscar movie, but it amuses me to know end that it did. I don’t know how many wins “The Substance” is going to pick up, but I’m happy that it appears to be a lock for the makeup category. Because that is very deserving. If it wasn’t around, I’d be going for “A Different Man.” But it is around, so I’m happy. More horror at the Oscars, please!

Film Editing

Nominations

- “Anora” – Sean Baker
- “The Brutalist” – David Jancso
- “Conclave” – Nick Emerson
- “Emilia Pérez” – Juliette Welfling
- “Wicked” – Myron Kerstein

Will Win

- “Anora” – Sean Baker

Should Win

- “Anora” – Sean Baker

This is always a weird category for me to personally judge. Some movies it’s obvious when the editing is sharp and excellent. Other movies… well… I guess they say that a sign of a well-edited movie is when you don’t notice the editing at all. And thus how do you go back and judge it? I will be a dork and say that “The Brutalist” and “Wicked” weren’t edited enough. I know that’s not the point of edited. But I don’t know if I like giving editing awards to movies that were way too long and whose pacing felt off. And I’m not giving “Emilia Pérez” an editing award. So that leaves “Anora” and “Conclave”? And I feel that “Anora” had a very smooth, rewarding pace to it, so I’ll go there on my personal take. And Sean Baker, the director of the movie, edited his own movie, which I think is impressive. As far as the prediction, I think this award often ties into best picture. Which I guess that might spoil my prediction for later. But I’m predicting Sean Baker to have a very good night. Pay attention to this category, though. It might seem insignificant, but it could be an indication to how things go. I also often use the ACE Eddy Awards to help me out here with the prediction, but due to the fires in LA, they postponed their ceremony until AFTER the Oscars. I don’t have a problem with that, but that certainly doesn’t help me in regards to predictions, so this is just a gut pick.

Costume Design

Nominations

- “A Complete Unknown” – Arianne Phillips
- “Conclave” – Lisy Christl
- “Gladiator II” – Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
- “Nosferatu” – Linda Muir
- “Wicked” – Paul Tazewell

Will Win

- “Wicked” – Paul Tazewell

Should Win

- “Nosferatu” – Linda Muir

This is one of the categories where “Wicked” is the heavy favorite to win. It won the top prize at the Costume Designers Guild Awards. So I’m not going to go against the grain on that in terms of predictions. Honestly there’s not a movie here that feels really exciting in regards to costume design, so I’ll be happy for “Wicked.” But as you’ll find out, when “Nosferatu” is an option for me to personally vote for, I might have a hard time going against that. And in recreating the retro Gothic horror look in “Nosferatu,” there’s a lot of factors that went into the movie looking perfect. And the costume design of Dracula and company is very well done. It’s also the closest you will come to when it comes to a period piece in this category, which is often the easiest choice. If “Nosferatu” pulls off any upsets, I’ll be ecstatic. But if “Wicked” wins, I won’t be upset.

Cinematography

Nominations

- “The Brutalist” – Lol Crawley
- “Dune: Part Two” – Greig Fraser
- “Emilia Pérez” – Paul Guilhaume
- “Maria” – Ed Lachman
- “Nosferatu” – Jarin Blaschke

Will Win

- “The Brutalist” – Lol Crawley

Should Win

- “Nosferatu” – Jarin Blaschke

I think it’s funny that that the only nomination that “Maria” got was cinematography. I finally watched that movie the other day and it was fine. Not great, but perfectly enjoyable. But the cinematography wasn’t anything particularly special. If it had gotten tagged along with a whole bunch of other nominations, then sure. But the lone nomination for the movie? That’s weird. Although I glanced at my post from last year and was reminded that the same thing happened for “El Conde,” which was Pablo Lorrain’s movie from 2023. So I guess the cinematographers branch loves Pablo Lorrain, but no one else was on board. Pablo Lorrain also did “Jackie” and “Spencer,” so he likes his biopics of female historical figures. The other funny thing is that “Maria” won the top prize at the ASC, the cinematography guild awards. I don’t think that’s helpful because I don’t think it’s getting a win on a lone nomination for this category after being ignored everywhere else. And so this seems like the place for “The Brutalist” to pull in another award. Although if this is the place where “Nosferatu” pulls off an upset, I will be very happy. It’s quite likely that “The Brutalist” has a bad day. The buzz on it has seemed to quiet down. And we’ve already talked about the botched campaign for “Dune: Part Two.” Plus they already gave Greig Fraser this award for “Part One.” I’d personally consider Fraser for my own pick. Him winning recently doesn’t make me shy away. But “Nosferatu” is such a beautifully shot movie. This is the second part of its excellent look when it comes to it’s Gothic horror vibes.

Production Design

Nominations

- “The Brutalist” – Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia
- “Conclave” – Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter
- “Dune: Part Two” – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
- “Nosferatu” – Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová
- “Wicked” – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Will Win

- “Wicked” – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Should Win

- “Nosferatu” – Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová

And while we’re on, the “Nosferatu” trifecta for me comes all in a row. Costume design, cinematography, and the look and design of Dracula’s castle. And yes, I know he’s not called Dracula in this movie, but it’s the easiest way to relate to people. And yes, this is also the second time I’m personally taking away an award from “Wicked” and giving it to “Nosferatu” instead. And yes, that means if I was in charge, I’d be giving “Wicked” a goose egg while allowing “Nosferatu” to have a great night. Don’t hurt me. I did enjoy “Wicked.” But “Nosferatu” was my second favorite movie of last year. What do you expect me to do? Robert Eggers makes excellent movies and the design of them is always fantastic. So I’m happy to see one of his movies getting recognition. Hopefully wins are coming in his future!

Animated Feature Film

Nominations

- “Flow” – Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens and Gregory Zalcman (Dream Well Studio)
- “Inside Out 2” – Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen (Pixar)
- “Memoir of a Snail” – Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney (Multiple Production Companies)
- “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” – Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham and Richard Beek (Aardman Animations)
- “The Wild Robot” – Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann (DreamWorks Animation)

Will Win

- “The Wild Robot” – Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann (DreamWorks Animation)

Should Win

- “The Wild Robot” – Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann (DreamWorks Animation)

A hard one for me to pick, personally. If you’ve talked to me recently, you’ll know that I’ve been obsessed with kitty cat goes meow! And again, “Flow” is on Max. Go watch it! But “The Wild Robot” was my No. 3 movie of last year, so it gets the edge. Both movies were in my top 10. And “Inside Out 2” wasn’t too far behind, so it’s a great year for this category. In regards to prediction, “The Wild Robot” was the heavy favorite after its release due to the near unanimous praise. “Flow” came in and almost seemed to take momentum when it was released and for a bit there is seemed like it was going to pull the upset. But now the pendulum seems to have swung back to “The Wild Robot,” especially after it cleaned house at the Annies – the animation awards. I’m not fully certain which one will win and I’ll be happy with either. Both are deserving. I will also note here that I have not seen “Memoir of a Snail.” When it expands beyond AMC+, I’ll give it a go. It looks go. And if you like Aardman or anything Wallace & Gromit related, “Vengeance Most Fowl” is a delight.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominations

- “A Complete Unknown” – Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
- “Conclave” – Screenplay by Peter Straughan
- “Emilia Pérez” – Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
- “Nickel Boys” – Screenplay by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
- “Sing Sing” – Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield

Will Win

- “Conclave” – Screenplay by Peter Straughan

Should Win

- “Sing Sing” – Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield

We’ve settled on a race that seems to have become “Conclave” vs. “Anora.” And when it comes to these writing categories, our two front runners are in separate categories and they both seem like they’ll walk home with awards, making the end of the night suspenseful. I’m not sure what the upset would be here, but there’s a lot of categories where I’m uncertain what will happen. And this is not one of them. Personally I would love to see “Sing Sing” get a win. That movie was incredible and I’m mad at A24 for botching it’s theatrical release AND awards campaign. I love A24, but they did not do that movie justice. So do yourself justice and go see it somehow!

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominations

- “Anora” – Written by Sean Baker
- “The Brutalist” – Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
- “A Real Pain” – Written by Jesse Eisenberg
- “September 5” – Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David
- “The Substance” – Written by Coralie Fargeat

Will Win

- “Anora” – Written by Sean Baker

Should Win

- “A Real Pain” – Written by Jesse Eisenberg

As I said before, I’m predicting a huge night for Sean Baker. And this is where things start building up for him! Although I would love to see Jesse Eisenberg up there accepting an award. “A Real Pain” and “Sing Sing” were two movies that were both in my top 10 of the year and they would’ve been the top two movies in my best picture ranking, but they both missed in best picture, despite getting screenplay nominations. That made me sad. Some have actually predicted “A Real Pain” to pull the upset here. And although I would love that, I’m not ready to pull the trigger just because of its best picture miss, which might indicate that the Academy isn’t as high on it as others? And actually, as I look at it, this is also a great category as a whole. Outside “The Brutalist,” which I didn’t care for, the other four I all loved.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominations

- Monica Barbaro – “A Complete Unknown”
- Ariana Grande – “Wicked”
- Felicity Jones – “The Brutalist”
- Isabella Rossellini – “Conclave”
- Zoe Saldaña – “Emilia Pérez”

Will Win

- Zoe Saldaña – “Emilia Pérez”

Should Win

- Zoe Saldaña – “Emilia Pérez”

This seems like a category is locked and loaded. On paper, Zoe Saldaña has won literally everything in the precursors. The only question is in regards to “Emilia Pérez” as a whole. If the Academy decides to punish that whole movie, we could see an upset here. But that’s literally not happened in any of the precursors. Not even ones like SAG, whose voting ended AFTER all the controversy. So I think Zoe is safe. And you’ll notice that I gave her the win as well. For me, all the negative with “Emilia Pérez” is not Zoe’s fault. And she gave one heck of a performance. Also, the other ladies here don’t inspire as much joy here for me. Monica was good, but she wasn’t even the best supporting actress in her own movie. That goes to Elle Fanning for me. Sorry “Wicked” fans, but I did not like Ariana Grande in that movie. And I wasn’t shy about saying that. If there’s an upset, I think it would be Isabella Rossellini as lifetime achievement. And if “Conclave” is having a good night, she could get pulled in for the ride. For me, I thought she was good, but not an awards level of good. Same thing with Felicity Jones. So it’s kinda weird for me. There are female supporting roles that I would’ve absolutely been behind, but none of them made it in. So we crown Zoe an Oscar winner. And that’s cool!

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominations

- Yura Borisov – “Anora”
- Kieran Culkin – “A Real Pain”
- Edward Norton – “A Complete Unknown”
- Guy Pearce – “The Brutalist”
- Jeremy Strong – “The Apprentice”

Will Win

- Kieran Culkin – “A Real Pain”

Should Win

- Kieran Culkin – “A Real Pain”

This is literally the easiest prediction of the night. The only slight concern is that “A Real Pain” missed best picture. But Kieran Culkin has also literally won everything. To the point where I think he got a bit tired of the awards shows and didn’t show up to half of them. He was also on the full awards circuit last season for the final season of “Succession,” so I don’t blame him if he’s feeling a bit burnt out. But he was absolutely incredible in this movie, which again was one of my favorites of last year. And a big part of that is because of him. He’s also a silly goofball in real life. I’ve loved his awards speeches and I’m excited for his Oscar speech. The only critique I’d give here is that he feels like a co-lead in the movie with Jesse Eisenberg. He’s in almost every shot of the movie. But I get the argument as to why he’s in supporting. I don’t know how the upset pick would be, but in an alternate universe where he was nominated as a lead, my second choice would be Jeremy Strong, so it was a good movie season for the “Succession” boys.

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominations

- Cynthia Erivo – “Wicked”
- Karla Sofía Gascón – “Emilia Pérez”
- Mikey Madison – “Anora”
- Demi Moore – “The Substance”
- Fernanda Torres – “I’m Still Here”

Will Win

- Demi Moore – “The Substance”

Should Win

- Demi Moore – “The Substance”

Both supporting categories feel like they’re set in stone. Both leads feel like more of a toss-up. It feels like Demi and Mikey have gone back and forth all season. If “Anora” is sweeping, I could see Mikey go along for the ride. But in the midst of this super close race, I told myself that I would go with whatever SAG goes with in terms of my prediction. And SAG went with Demi, so I go Demi. And I do think the Academy loves a comeback story. We’ve had several examples recently. And Demi is that story this season. And I think her speeches when she has won have probably convinced a lot of people on the fence to give her a vote. And if you’ve read any of my posts here where “The Substance” is a choice, you’ll know that I’ve raved about that movie. And Demi goes all in with this movie, giving a career performance. This isn’t just a feel-good comeback or a lifetime achievement. This is the best she’s been. And if we go back to the supporting actress conversation, I mentioned that there’s several supporting performances that I would’ve been behind, had they gotten in. Margaret Qualley would’ve been one of them. Her and Demi were both incredible and played off each other very well. Back to this lead category, I’ve seen some predict Fernanda Torres. I wouldn’t hate that. She was great. But I’ve seen no evidence for that in the precursors. Loud Twitter buzz doesn’t equal awards wins. “Wicked” fans would be happy to know that Cynthia would be my personal No. 2 here. And I’m sure the Academy retroactively go back and remove Karla in favor of someone like Angelina Jolie or Zendaya.

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominations

- Adrien Brody – “The Brutalist”
- Timothée Chalamet – “A Complete Unknown”
- Colman Domingo – “Sing Sing”
- Ralph Fiennes – “Conclave”
- Sebastian Stan – “The Apprentice”

Will Win

- Adrien Brody – “The Brutalist”

Should Win

- Colman Domingo – “Sing Sing”

This category did seem like it was locked up. Adrien Brody was sweeping along with Zoe and Kieran. But then SAG threw us a curveball and gave it to Timothée Chalamet. And that almost makes me want to switch, especially if I’m nervous that “The Brutalist” might have a bad night. But I just can’t quite pull the trigger. Sometimes SAG is right on. Many other times they go three for four. And this just feels like it could be the one they are off on. And I don’t feel like being boring by predicting the SAG four. But maybe that hurts me in the end. I’d be happy for Timmy to become an Oscar winner. He’s going to get one at some point. I didn’t care for his SAG speech, but I love him as an actor and I do think he’s one of the best of his generation and could become an all-time great, even though I’d like to see him be a little more humble about it. But as you see, I personally didn’t go for Adrien or Timmy in my personal pick. Nothing against them. But again, “Sing Sing.” One of my favorite movies of the year. And Colman Domingo gave quite the emotional performance. If A24 didn’t botch that entire movie’s potential, I honestly think he’d be the guy sweeping every award here. Especially since he does feel like he’s overdue at this point. I was tempted to go Ralph Fiennes because he hasn’t won before, but that would be more of a career win and I don’t like doing that. Sebastian Stan I’d be all for if he had gotten in for “A Different Man” instead of “The Apprentice.”

Directing

Nominations

- Sean Baker – “Anora”
- Brady Corbet – “The Brutalist”
- James Mangold – “A Complete Unknown”
- Jacques Audiard – “Emilia Pérez”
- Coralie Fargeat – “The Substance”

Will Win

- Sean Baker – “Anora”

Should Win

- Coralie Fargeat – “The Substance”

Can Sean Baker really win four Oscars in one evening? It’s not been done too often, but it’s also not too often where the director plays so many roles in making the movie. So I feel it would be deserving. Brady Corbet was the early front runner here, but then that all changed when Sean Baker won at the Directors Guild Awards (DGA). And the DGA has a pretty solid track record in predicting the eventual Oscar winner. If Sean Baker doesn’t get four Oscars, it’s because someone else won original screenplay and/or editing. Director feels like the Oscar where he’s most locked in for. And given that the biggest competition for “Anora” has become “Conclave,” the fact that Edward Berger didn’t get a nomination for best director means Baker’s biggest competition doesn’t exist. If there’s an upset here, wouldn’t it be great if it were Coralie Fargeat for “The Substance”? I’m not the best at judging director because that’s a lot of behind the scenes stuff. But there’s a whole lot in “The Substance” that has to be properly balanced and I don’t know who else could’ve pulled that off with the specifics of what happens here. This movie made me really excited to see what she does next! So for me this choice was easy. If there was an upset for my pick, it would be Denis Villeneuve for “Dune: Part Two.” He absolutely deserved to win this award for what he pulled off with that franchise. But he’s also not here. What the heck, Academy?

Best Picture

Nominations

- “Anora” – Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers (NEON)
- “The Brutalist” – Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers (A24)
- “A Complete Unknown” – Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman, Producers (Searchlight)
- “Conclave” – Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, Producers (Focus Features)
- “Dune: Part Two” – Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, Producers (Warner Bros.)
- “Emilia Pérez” – Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers (Netflix)
- “I’m Still Here” – Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Nickel Boys” – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers (Amazon MGM)
- “The Substance” – Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner, Producers (MUBI)
- “Wicked” – Marc Platt, Producer (Universal)

Will Win

- “Anora” – Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers (NEON)

Should Win

- “The Substance” – Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner, Producers (MUBI)

And here we have arrived. Best picture for the year 2024. And honestly, if we’re giving the award to the movie that is the most culturally relevant of the year, it would probably deserve to be “Dune: Part Two” or “Wicked.” But that’s not how I’d vote if I had a ballot, nor is that how the Academy always goes. I go for my favorite movie that made the list because I don’t think there should be a stereotype as to what type of movie should be winning awards. Why not have a body horror movie like “The Substance” win best picture? That would be awesome! And it’s my favorite of the 10! If you want to see my full ranking of all 10 of these movies, head over to my Letterboxd. My profile is @AdamDroge. You can also see my top 25 of the year as a whole. And you’ll note that none of these movies made my top 10, which is weird because last Oscars, five of them were in my top 10. But “The Substance” was really close at No. 11, so I’ll happily go for that.

In regards to my prediction, this were things have been wild this whole season. As I’ve mentioned before, I think half of these movies have been a front runner at some point this season. And I don’t want to get into the whole history of this season. That would take too long. But one thing led to many other things, and I think we’ve come down to “Anora” vs. “Conclave.” And I personally think that is because of the preferential ballot. You can Google to see exactly how that works. The short version is that voters rank the movies 1-10. A movie needs 50 percent of the vote to win. If that doesn’t happen on the first ballot, the last place movie gets eliminated and for anyone who had that as their No. 1, their second place movie becomes their new vote. And they do that until they have a majority. In which case, it’s not always the most loved movie that wins. It’s the least hated. If you have a lot of second, third, and fourth place votes, along with enough first place votes, that’s what’s going to help you get the win. And I do think “Anora” and “Conclave” are the two movies that had the least amount of controversy this year.

Which one wins? I say “Anora.” I would not be surprised to hear “Conclave.” But the reason I picked “Anora” is because it would at the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and the Critics Choice Awards. Movies that take home the DGA, PGA, and CCA have a great track record at the Oscars. “Conclave” won at the BAFTA, the British Academy Awards. That makes sense. “Conclave” is a British film and they love it. “Conclave” also won best ensemble at the SAGs (Screen Actor Guild Awards). That also makes sense. “Conclave” has a large ensemble. “Anora” has a small one. Some say “Conclave” has momentum. I say it’s wins make sense in context and won’t necessarily translate to Oscar. But my confidence level isn’t high. But it’s what I’m going for. So I say Sean Baker has a great night, finishing off with best picture, but I could see “Conclave.” I do think it’s one of those two, though. Any other narrative people say just doesn’t have any evidence or support behind it, but we’ll all find out here real soon and I’m excited to watch!

 

Movie Preview: February 2025

Preview of 2025 completed. Favorite movies of 2024 revealed. Now it’s time to dive right into February to see the prognosis on what the second month of the year has to offer! As talked about in my January preview, the first month of the year was a trifecta of holiday holdovers, awards season expansions, and new January releases that are often dumped onto the calendar and ignored. The fact that “Mufasa” was either No. 1 or fighting for No. 1 in four of the five January weekends should tell you about how all of that went. Most of the new January releases didn’t do much. Our first breakout hit of the year was “Dog Man,” which opened on the final day of January to $36 million. As a reminder, even though two of those three days of that weekend were in February, I include the weekend in the month where it started, which is why we begin this post now instead of last week at this time. Anyways, February has our first Marvel movie of the year, which should give the month and the year a nice kick of adrenaline. Teaming up with the Captain are a plethora of smaller to medium-sized films that look to please audiences while crossing their fingers in hopes that they get a few dollars themselves.

As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of the-numbers.com and boxofficepro.com. The movies listed are the ones currently scheduled for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are always subject to change.

February 7 – 9

Universal's "Love Hurts" 

As mentioned in the intro, the final weekend of January saw “Dog Man” open to $36 million, which was an almost identical opening as the most recent DreamWorks movie, “The Wild Robot,” which opened to $35.8 million back in the end of September. “The Wild Robot” dropped 47 percent in its second weekend. If “Dog Man” follows suit, that would put it right around $19.1 million for weekend No. 2, which should give it plenty of clearance to take a second straight weekend at No. 1. The biggest competition is… the Super Bowl. Not a theatrical event, obviously, but it needs to be noted because Super Bowl weekend has never been a great one for the box office, as movies that do come out only have two days instead of three, unless you can successfully counter-program. Even then, very few new movies have opened higher than $20 million. Seven, to be exact. And the highest of them all was the Hanna Montana and Miley Cyrus concert movie way back in 2008, which opened to $31.1 million. In which case, “Dog Man” is poised to counter-program the best, with it being a movie directed at kids. Two new movies will attempt to open against the Super Bowl this weekend, but one is an action and the other is a horror movie, so prognostication is not the best. But lets check them out, anyways!

Theoretically tracking slightly ahead in regards to the two new releases is the Valentine’s action movie Love Hurts. This movie stars Oscar-winning actor Ke Huy Quan, who has now arrived at the point in his career where he gets to headline his own action movie after beginning his career as the kid Short Round in “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom.” And he’s teaming up with Oscar-winning actress Ariana DeBose, who, having won her Oscar the year before, was the one on Oscar night to announce Key Huy Quan as the winner for supporting actor. Anyways, I haven’t quite been able to discern what their relationship in the movie is from the trailers or description, but they’re teaming to stop his brother, a crime lord who is out for revenge. And yes, this is another action movie where a middle-aged man has attempted to put his past life behind him, only to get dragged back into that life when others try to hunt him down. I’ll let you figure out what other action movies are like that. Box Office Pro has this pegged to open in the $8-12 million. My gut tells me that could be a tad bit optimistic, but I’m not a professional at this. Maybe a Valentine’s action film should’ve opened on Valentine’s weekend instead of Super Bowl. But that weekend has a giant Marvel movie opening, so it’s a bit of a lose/lose here. Reviews have not been released as of me typing this, so that’s also a little bit of a red flag, but we’ll see if it can overcome the hurdles that are presented here.

The horror movie that’s getting released on this weekend is also Valentine’s themed and that is Heart Eyes, which is a movie that seems to be combining rom-com with slasher flick as the “Heart Eyes Killer” is out wreaking havoc and stalking couples on Valentine’s Day. This gives the holiday its very own slasher horror villain alongside the likes of Halloween and Thanksgiving, amongst a few others. This movie is directed by Josh Ruben, director of the 2021 horror comedy “Werewolves Within,” and is written by Christopher Landon and Michael Kennedy. Landon is the writer/director of “Happy Death Day” and “Freaky,” while Kennedy teamed up with Landon to help write “Freaky,” while also writing “It’s a Wonderful Knife.” Landon has his own movie “Drop” coming in April, so he’s been busy. But together as a team, they’ve all conjured up a Valentine’s Day horror film that has seem to have gone over quite well with those who have seen in. Reviews are out and it’s hovering around 90 percent. Copy and paste the same obstacles “Love Hurts” has with the Super Bowl this week and Captain America next week, while adding the fact that “Heart Eyes” has to deal with competition from “Companion” last week, which didn’t open high, but got excellent reviews, as well as “The Monkey,” which releases on February 21 and also has great early reviews. So it’s an excellent month for horror fans, but this might be a case of horror fans having to catch up on the movie over the course of the year if things are a bit too busy for it to break out in this particular moment.

February 14 – 17

Marvel's "Captain America: Brave New World"

It’s a double holiday weekend as Valentine’s Day lands on a Friday this year, with Presidents’ Day being the following Monday. That often leads to a very productive four-day holiday weekend when things align like that. And it’s Marvel that has laid claim on the weekend as they release the big blockbuster of the month, Captain America: Brave New World. This is the first of three MCU films being released this year, with “Thunderbolts*” in May and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” in July being the other two. And the subtitle of this particular movie is coincidentally a bit like Marvel’s story at the moment. In past years following the success of “The Avengers,” the spent a good portion of the decade being invincible. And now we’ve entered a phase where public perception isn’t quite what it once was, as hating on the MCU is the cool thing to do right now. So instead of being this invincible force that can do no wrong, Marvel now has to try to win audiences back over. And after mostly taking 2024 off due to the strikes in 2023 impacting the production of several of their movies, leaving “Deadpool & Wolverine” as their lone 2024 release, Sam Wilson is the one who gets to lead the charge in 2025. As you’ll of course recall, he took the shield and the mantle of Captain America from Steve Rodgers at the end of “Avengers: Endgame.” Then in 2021 we had the Disney+ series “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier” tell his story of him officially accepting that role. With that transition out of the way, he now gets his own movie as he has Harrison Ford’s Red Hulk and Giancarlo Esposito’s Sidewinder to deal with.

Will he successfully lead his own movie to box office success and win over audiences? That’s the unknown territory here that we’re all here to find out. Box Office Pro’s most recent tracking has it pegged in the $80-95 million range for the 3-day weekend, with $90-105 million for the 4-day weekend. In looking at the previous three Captain America movies, “The First Avenger” opened to $65.1 million in 2011, while “The Winter Soldier” opened to $95.0 million three years later in 2014. “Civil War” is not a good comparison at all due to it being a quasi-Avengers movie and performing like one, but if you use the tool provided by the-numbers.com and adjust for ticket price inflation, those first two movies adjust to $88.4 million and $125.4 million for their openings, respectively. Now despite criticism being heavy from audiences, Marvel actually had a six-movie streak of $100+ million openers, from “Spider-Man: No Way Home” in December 2021 to “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” in May 2023, before the world collapsed on “The Marvels” in late 2023. But “Deadpool & Wolverine” recovered quite nicely last year with a $211.4 million opening. So people complain… but they still go. All things considered, Box Office Pro’s range is probably a fair number, which would put it in the company of several other solo MCU adventures. Reviews and audience reaction will be especially key here, while the 4-day holiday weekend has to be taken into consideration. The 3-day total might be a tad bit lower as the opening is stretched over the four days. And not many MCU movies have opened over a 4-day holiday weekend, so there’s not a ton of comparison there.

Captain America does have competition this holiday weekend as we finally have the U.S. release of Paddington in Peru. As was the case with both previous Paddington movies, this third movie also opened in its home country of the U.K. back at the end of last year before finally arriving over here in America. It’s already earned $44.9 million over there and $93.2 million total worldwide, so perhaps its U.S. release is less important, but nevertheless the Paddington movies have received quite the prestige, especially “Paddington 2,” which was at 100 percent on Rotten Tomatoes for quite the long time. At one point it held the record for most reviews counted for a movie that was 100 percent before a couple of Grinches knocked it down to 99 percent… several years after the fact. The spurned a silly conversation of comparing to “Citizen Kane” as the best reviewed movie ever. That shows a lack of understanding as to how Rotten Tomatoes works. Not many critics are actually calling it the best movie ever. But the short version of what that high score means is that it’s a movie that’s hard to hate. Which seems to hold true for “Paddington in Peru” so far. It hasn’t had rave reviews in comparison, but it still stands at a 93 percent with 70 reviews counted as of me typing this post. The slight concern is that the director of the first two didn’t return for this one, but so far it seems new director Dougal Wilson took enough notes from Paul King to make this work from audiences. All that said, these movies don’t necessarily open super high in America. “Paddington” opened to $18.9 million here in 2015, while “Paddington 2” only opened to $11.0 million. So somewhere in the $15-20 million range is more or less what’s expected. As the title explains, Paddington bear is off to Peru in this movie to search for his Aunt Lucy, who he learns has gone missing.

February 21 – 23

NEON's "The Monkey"

Regardless of how Captain America does in its opening weekend, barring a monumental disaster, it is almost certain to take a second weekend at No. 1. But looking for a strong second place debut is the horror movie The Monkey. This comes from director Osgood Perkins, son of “Psycho” star Anthony Perkins, fresh off his breakout success with last year’s “Longlegs,” which was a serial killer horror film where the FBI was trying to hunt down a Satanic serial killer played by Nicolas Cage. Although in the same genre, “The Monkey” is a much different type of horror film as its basically a slasher horror about a toy monkey going around killing people. The movie is based on a short story written by Stephen King back in 1980 and also has James Wan on as producer. So the combination of Osgood Perkins, Stephen King, and James Wan certainly makes this a horror film that has breakout potential. Last year “Longlegs” opened with an impressive $22.4 million and held well to make $74.3 million domestically. Those are numbers that aren’t out of the realm of possibility here, especially since early reaction has been strong so far as it’s earned an 88 percent from its first 26 reviews counted. Box Office Pro pegged it in the broad range of $15-25 million, which is not particularly helpful, but it seems like it’s possible that it hits the top end of that spectrum, finishing off what should be a fun month for horror fans.

The other movie coming out this weekend is one that might seem vaguely familiar and that’s because The Unbreakable Boy was initially scheduled to come in March 2022. Filming took place in late 2020 and the movie was ready for its 2022 release date, but was pulled from the schedule eight days before its release by Lionsgate without much of any explanation. It spent two years sitting on a shelf being updated before it finally got its current release date around this time last year. So now more than four years after initially being shot, the movie is finally ready to hit theaters. The movie is written and directed by Jon Gunn and is about a boy on the autism spectrum who also has brittle bone disease. Zachary Levi plays the boy’s father Scott and the movie is more or less told from the father’s vantage point as he initially struggles with his son’s condition only to learn later what it means to be truly unbreakable, finding joy and gratitude in the most trying times. The movie is based on a true story and is adapted from the book that was written by the kid’s father. Director Jon Gunn latest movie, “Ordinary Angels,” was released last year in February and opened to $6.2 million. He also directed “Do You Believe?” and “The Case for Christ,” which opened to $3.6 million and $3.9 million, respectively, in 2015 and 2017. So a similar opening in the realm of $5-10 million is the expectation here.

February 28 – March 2

Focus Features' "Last Breath"

The final weekend of February, which includes the first two days of March, is looking like a bit of a quiet one, which should lead the way for a Captain America three-peat. There were initially three smaller releases scheduled for this final weekend, but literally in the middle of me typing this, the new Looney Tunes movie got pushed back a few weeks to March 14, so we’ll talk about the Looney Tunes next month. That’s why I always note that these release dates are subject to change. But that leaves us with the movie Last Breath as the first of just two movies to talk about here. This movie is a dramatized version of the 2019 documentary of the same name that tells the story of a diving accident back in 2012 where diver Chris Lemons and his two colleagues were carrying out repairs 300 feet below the surface of the North American Sea when their diving equipment failed. Lemons was dragged and trapped with only five minutes left of breathable gas in is tank. The documentary is currently available to be watched on Netflix, although when I searched it I learned that Netflix claims it’s leaving on February 14, so you have about a week to watch it before it leaves prior to the movie’s release. The documentary was directed by Richard da Costa and Alex Parkinson, and also written by Alex Parkinson. The movie stars Woody Harrelson, Simu Liu, and Finn Cole. It also has Alex Parkinson back as the writer and director of this dramatized version, which is slightly unique, but not completely unheard of, to adapt your own documentary into a dramatized film.

The final movie of the weekend and the month, as I quickly refresh to see if there are any more release schedule changes since I started typing, is the anime film Mobile Gundam GQuuuuuuX -Beginning-. I’m pretty sure I got the correct amount of u’s on that. I’m not sure how you’d pronounce that, which makes me glad I’m only typing this. It is apparently being billed as the sixteenth installment of the Gundam franchise. Although I’m not quite sure where they get that number because I click on the Gundam Wikipedia page and it says it’s a franchise that began in 1979 and has spawned 50 TV series, films, and OVAs, as well as manga, novels, and video games. So regardless of the number, this franchise is huge. And popular. “Mobile Gundam GQuuuuuuX” is an upcoming anime series, while “Mobile Gundam GQuuuuuuX -Beginning-” appears to be a theatrical cut of several of the episodes. Doing this type of thing for anime series has been fairly popular and trendy as of late, either releasing the first few episodes of an upcoming series as a movie, editing a season of a show into a movie, or some other variation of this. The most recent was “Solo Leveling -ReAwakening-,” which opened to $2.5 million from 846 theaters, while in October “My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next” opened to $3.0 million from 1,845 theaters. “Mobile Gundam GQuuuuuuX -Beginning-” is being being distributed by GKIDS and will likely open somewhere around those numbers, depending on what the final theater count ends up being.

 

DrogeMiester's Top 10 Movies of 2024

The year 2024 has finally come to an end and now it’s time for my annual dive into my top 10 favorite movies of the year. Well, actually, that year ended a month ago. Some people like doing this list the second the year ends. Others like doing it in December before everything even comes out. I like to give myself a few extra weeks to catch up on things and then release this list around this time of year. Plus there’s always movies that don’t expand until Oscar nominations come out that I like to see before putting my list out. And this year California was on fire, so they extended the deadline for Oscar voting, thus delaying the announcement. Sometimes real life happens and you adjust.

This was also the second straight year in 2024 where I logged everything I watched on Letterboxd. I haven’t done reviews over there because I only have 19 followers, so I use it as more of a diary. But it’s been an excellent film diary and fun to look back on. You can also create all sorts of lists on Letterboxd, so I’ve done plenty of those. The point of bringing that up is that I also keep an ongoing list of my favorite movies of the year. In years past, I would keep track of what I watched in an Excel file. I’d have a general idea of what my top movies were, but I didn’t actually sit down and create the official list until around this time. Now I update the list every time I watch something new. Thus all I had to do when it came time for this blog post was to fine tune things and trim it down to my top 25. And I actually considered for a bit simply sharing that Letterboxd list instead of doing this post, but I decided that I enjoy doing one final write up. So here we are.

As such, I was a lot less concerned about catching every last movie before making this post because I can just update the Letterboxd list if changes happen. Generally speaking, I do a pretty good job of keeping my finger on the pulse and prioritizing movies that I know I will like most. So I don’t imagine there will be many drastic changes moving forward, but this post here will be etched in stone as a reflection of what I thought of 2024 as of early February 2025. And if changes happen, that will reflect on the list over on Letterboxd. And if there’s drastic enough changes, I’ll re-share that list on social media. And I’ll post a link that that in the comments here. And yes, that is 25 movies deep instead of just 10, so check that out to see the honorable mentions. And you can add yourself to my list of 19 Letterboxd followers if you want. Anyways, as always, 2024 was a fun year for movies. Honestly I don’t think I’ve ever come to the end of the year and thought the year was bad. Different years just have different strengths and weaknesses. Different personalities, if you will. If you watch as many movies as I do, you’ll find that there’s always plenty of good, just in different ways. And in 2024, the story was horror. One of the better years for horror that I can remember. That’s mostly reflective in my top 25 as a whole, but you’ll notice several entries in here that really rose to the top. I could’ve made a list of my top 10 horror films of the year and still had good horror movies that I had to leave off. And that’s impressive. But anyways, enough talking, here’s the top 10!

10- Flow

Kitty cat go “Meow!” Dog go “Woof!” Bird go “Chirp!” Not sure what the best written noise for a lemur or capybara is. But waters go “Woosh!” Kitty go “MEOW!!!” Kitty cat in danger. Kitty cat make friends. Kitty cat is safe. Ok, I’ll stop. But this is a foreign animated film without dialogue. Just the animals and the noises they make. It’s simple and cute enough that anyone who likes animals, old or young, can watch this film and enjoy it. But it’s profound enough that an expert film connoisseur can sit down and spend hours analyzing all of its themes and messages. And it’s the perfect movie for a teacher of a film class to use when the lesson is on animation. Make the class watch it and have every student write their five-page paper on it. It’s really quite the work of art. It was playing in exactly ONE theater in Utah last month and for my birthday I hunted it down and took my mom with me to see it and we both loved it. I’m rather proud of myself that I successfully found it, but as such this is a movie you might not have had the opportunity to see. So when it becomes available, find it and watch it. Especially if you’re like me and you love cats.

9- A Real Pain

My first of two really grumpy moments when Oscar nominations were announced and this movie was NOT in the best picture lineup when it was predicted to be in. It got a screenplay nod and a supporting actor nomination for Kieran Culkin, which is great. But it most certainly deserved more. I had heard the buzz about this since it came out at Sundance in January 2024. And sometimes that can be dangerous when it takes you too long to finally get around to a hyped up film. There’s a good chance of it feeling over-hyped. But this one caught me off guard in a good way. It’s written and directed by Jesse Eisenberg and stars him and Kieran Culkin as two cousins going on a trip to Europe to pay homage to their Jewish heritage. You wouldn’t think a movie that simple could be that powerful. I certainly didn’t, anyways. I expected it to be good, but perhaps mainly as an acting showcase. And no, this doesn’t have many big, grand, beat-you-over-the-head emotional moments. But for me it was very subtle and very impactful, showcases two cousins who both really cared about their heritage, but lived different lives and had different ways of showing it. And yeah, Kieran Culkin is a superstar. You knew that if you watched “Succession,” but this reaffirms that. I don’t know if he’ll ever be more popular than his older brother Macaulay, but in terms of acting, awards, and prestige, I think Kieran is the new king of the Culkin family.

8- Strange Darling

On the surface this is your typical crime thriller. A well-executed, extremely entertaining crime thriller. But a typical one. And I’m all here for that, familiar or not. However, this movie is narratively split into six chapters. And the chapters are presented to you… out of order. Again, non-linear story telling is nothing new. Just ask Christopher Nolan or Quentin Tarantino. One might call it a “gimmick” if used unnecessarily. But this movie told out of order takes you on quite the journey. It’s one of those movies that’s best experienced without knowing much of anything, which is why I’m trying my best to dance around things very carefully. But by starting in the middle of the story and bouncing around, then going back to fill in the gaps, your expectations get completely flipped on their head halfway through. It’s one of those movies where my jaw dropped and hit the floor. Like… WHAT?!?!? Some absolutely brilliant storytelling. And if I had a say in the Oscars, Willa Fitzgerald would be getting a best actress nomination. Because she is absolutely insane in this movie as “The Lady.” And even though Oscar didn’t notice her with this being the wrong genre for them, I hope others in the film industry have taken note because this girl deserves a long and successful career.

7- Sing Sing

The other moment of Oscar nomination morning that made me real mad is when this movie also didn’t get into the best picture race. Both this and “A Real Pain” were projected to get in and both missed. Because of that, we ended up with ZERO movies in the best picture lineup in my personal top 10 this time around. I know it was a weaker year for the awards race, but we were supposed to at least have two. Oh well. I guess that’s a spoiler alert for what’s not coming up in the next six choices. Anyways, even though A24 totally botched this movie’s release schedule and awards campaign, it’s one I’d highly recommend hunting down and watching. It’s about a group of people in prison whose lives get turned around by an in-prison theater program where they get the chance to act, prepare, and put on a show. A powerful message that sometimes giving people a purpose in life can make a huge difference in turning their lives around. And even though this movie is technically a work of fiction, most of the cast are people playing themselves. Or versions of themselves. People who actually went through this program and successfully made it out and turned their lives around, who now get the chance to tell their story in a unique way. And to me that element of it was what really put it over the edge.

6- Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

One of the more baffling stories of 2024 was how “Furiosa” simply did not connect with general audiences. Critics loved it. And most people who did go see it generally loved it as well. But that’s the thing. Most people weren’t interested. And now that the year has come and gone, it’s one that’s easy to forget that it came out. It just didn’t have the same cultural impact as its predecessor. And to me that’s really sad because “Mad Max: Fury Road,” when the dust settled several years later, is the movie that’s become my favorite of 2015. Seeing George Miller back with his next entry in the franchise had me stoked. It had Anya Taylor-Joy playing a younger Furiosa, and that was great news because I love Anya. And we also had Chris Hemsworth joining the party, looking like he was having the absolute time of his life. And yeah, it wound up being a very different movie than “Fury Road,” but to me it was the perfect compliment. You didn’t get as many crazy, action-packed sequences. And the second you thought you were about to get one, it kinda drifted. And if you were disappointed because of that, I understand. But to me this wound up as a character piece and it was a rather effective one at that. We got to learn more about Furiosa that makes her role and story in “Fury Road” feel that much more impactful. And when you watch these two movies back to back, the existence of “Furiosa” makes “Fury Road” an even better movie. It’s rare to get a good prequel these days. It’s even more rare to get a prequel that does it’s job so well that it makes the original an even better. I’m sure one exists, but I honestly can’t think of a better example of this than “Furiosa” right now.

5- Late Night with the Devil

As mentioned in my intro, 2024 was an excellent year for horror. And although some of the entries in my top 10 could be categorized more as thriller than horror, there is definitely no debate on this one. It’s 100 percent horror. And one of the most creative and unique horror films to come out as well. In an era where it’s really easy to make a few quick bucks off of a generic jump-scare fest, it was great to see that there’s still plenty of creativity in the horror realm. Funny enough, at its core, “Late Night with the Devil” is a demonic possession movie. And we’ve seen too many of those to count. But like with “Strange Darling,” it’s how they presented it and framed it that made it unique. The setting was that of a fictional late night talk show. And the framing device was pseudo found footage. I say “pseudo” because they don’t fully commit to the gig and it’s not really found footage. But the idea is that they’ve found an old recording of this talk show host in extreme desperation mode doing a crazy Halloween episode. So yeah, the basic idea is something we’ve seen before. But framed in a way that makes it feel unique and fresh. And executed in a very intense and entertaining manner. The suspense builds and builds until all Hell breaks loose in the final act. And I do mean that literally and not as a curse word. We have demonic possessions, evil spirits, the Devil, and all sorts of Hellish things. If horror isn’t your thing, this won’t convert you. But if you do like horror and you somehow missed this one, this should immediately go to the top of your watch list.

4- Monkey Man

They called this movie the “Indian John Wick.” And in an era of action films where everyone is trying to be the next John Wick, that speaks a lot to the massive cultural impact that John Wick made on the action genre. Everyone who is making a new action film is trying to replicate that success. And in terms of a broken protagonist trying to get revenge on a group of evil dudes, then yeah, sure. “Indian John Wick.” But this is Dev Patel doing something special here. And if it was just him in the lead role of the movie, that would be hard enough given the intense training regimen that he most certainly had to go through in order to pull this off. But he also wrote, directed, and produced the movie. So he played just about every role in the production and he did a perfect job at it. And it was his first time directing a movie, too. So that’s even more impressive. However, I do think this movie separates itself from John Wick in many ways. It’s a lot more gritty and raw. Our lead character isn’t just a superhuman easily beating all the bad dudes. He’s a bit messy and chaotic. Very broken and very hurt, causing him to be quite unhinged, which presents an extra level of danger. And he goes through quite the impressive character arc, both mentally and physically. It’s an insanely fun action film, but it’s also very raw and emotional. It’ll give you what you came for if you’re a fan of action, but it also separates itself from the pack to feel unique and special. And for a while this hung out at No. 1 on my Letterboxd list. For a bit there, I wondered if we’d get anything to top it. We finally did in the second half of the year. But this is still the action movie of the year if you’re a fan of that genre.

3- The Wild Robot

Looking at how my top 5 ended up this year, this isn’t exactly a bunch of films that one would call user-friendly. They’re very niche to me. But thrown right in the middle of that mix is this absolutely delightful little DreamWorks film. If there’s one movie I can safely recommend to anyone and everyone, old and young, nephew and mom alike, “The Wild Robot” is the one. And if you have a heart, you’re going to fall in love with this movie, which tells the story of an A.I. robot that gets lost on an island full of wild animals and gets the “assignment” to help a raise a little baby goose so that it can get to the point of flying off with the rest of the flock during winter. You know exactly what’s going to happen with that premise and you brace for emotional impact as it hits, but like a Pixar movie that successfully pulls at the heartstrings every time even though you know what they’re going to try to do, the movie wins and you find yourself bawling in your seat like Wade from “Elemental,” wondering if you’re going to turn into a puddle. But lest you think that’s the only thing that’s going to happen, what you thought was going to be the movie’s climax ends up taking place in the middle of the film. And this film ends up going in lots of directions. Maybe part of that reasoning is that there’s a whole series of books this is based on, but instead of filling cluttered and chaotic with too much plot and too many characters, it all comes together in a very impressive way that makes it feel layered and complex. You’re not just going to cry. You’re going to experience every emotion possible. DreamWorks pulls a rabbit out of their hat with this movie and the result is one of their best yet.

2- Nosferatu

It’s not too often where my most anticipated movie of the year connects in the exact way I was hoping and dreaming it would, but that’s exactly what happened with Robert Eggers’ adaptation of “Nosferatu.” In fact, it came very close to going from most anticipated to No. 1 movie of the year. With both this movie and the movie that ended up at No. 1, they were very strong cases of if you know me well enough, you know they’re going to be my type of movie. And yeah, they’re both horror. With “Nosferatu,” Robert Eggers takes the story of Dracula that we’ve seen done a thousand times and puts his own dark and twisted spin on things. He’s a director who likes to take a subject matter and be as authentic as he can to that time period. No sugarcoating anything, but rather be honest and true to the original source material or era he’s in. And while that ends up as very dark and grim stories, the point is to be thematically rich and deep in a way you can’t as easily accomplish otherwise. So yeah, the director who gave us “The Witch,” “The Lighthouse,” and “The Northman” now takes on the original story of Nosferatu, bringing it back to its original gothic horror origins. This is not supposed to be a happy story with a fun, central villain. He’s a creepy, scary dude who gains an unhealthy obsession with a dude’s wife. And the only way to stop him is for the pure woman to give herself as a willing sacrifice. But in the process, Nosferatu brings plague, disease, and destruction. And there’s conflicting interests with our lead protagonists who battle with the idea of saving the whole city vs. saving your wife. This is the perfect “Nosferatu” adaptation in my mind with a final shot that is absolutely haunting. It makes me want Eggers to take on all the old monster movies and classic dark fairy tales. And he’s holding true for now. His next movie is a 13th Century Werewolf thriller titled “Werwulf,” coming Christmas 2026.

1- Longlegs

Some years there’s internal competition in my mind as to what deserves the title of my favorite movie of the year. This was not one of those years. This was very easy to decide. I mean, when I heard buzz about this movie, you’re really telling me that there’s a movie coming out that’s described as a serial killer horror movie that’s on par with “Silence of the Lambs” and “Se7en”? Directed by Osgood Perkins, son of Anthony Perkins who played Norman Bates in “Psycho”? There might not be a more “Adam movie” in existence. I tried not going in with too high of expectations, but this definitely has Oz harnessing his inner David Fincher (“Se7en,” “Zodiac,” “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” “Gone Girl”) as he’s telling the story of a Satanic serial killer played by Nicolas Cage. A fictional story, not a real one. But certainly inspired real lunatics that did exist. Cage is giving one of his most crazy and eccentric roles yet, which is saying something for him, but it absolutely works in the context of what he is supposed to be pull off. Most of the movie is focused on our FBI girl who is hunting him down, but the moments Cage does get leave a haunting and terrifying impression that will stick with me for a long time. You can call this a crime thriller if you want. If you have a stigma against horror and that gets you to watch, then cool, but to me this feels like real life horror. The type of scary, terrifying, Satanic work that could’ve very well existed. If the Devil is real and he has a real influence on people who fully let him in, I’m not sure how much more scary you can get. And if you wonder why and how such a dark and twisted movie can be my favorite, just keep in mind that the point here is to stop the Devil and catch people like this. Portrayals of evil don’t mean the movie itself is promoting evil. But it does leave a much larger impact than anything else I watched. One of the quickest 5-star reviews I’ve given. A movie that I instantly threw on the top of my list before I even left the theater. And there was never a threat of it being dethroned.