This post is pretty straight forward. I will go through all 23 categories at the Oscars, giving three things each. First, the list of nominees. And if there are any typos or mistakes, I apologize. That was a lot of names to type up. Second, I give my prediction on who I think will win. Third, I give my pick on who I think should win, in other words my personal pick if I were to have an Oscar ballot. Then of course I’ll finish each category with whatever thoughts I have before moving on. If I’m wrong with these, then so be it. It’s just for fun. I feel like I have a decent grasp on what’s going to happen tonight, but there’s enough doubt in a lot of the categories that I don’t think I’m going to score as well as I have in the past, but we’ll see. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or random emotional outbursts about any of this, then please let me know!
Documentary Short
Film
Nominations
- “The Elephant Whisperers” – Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet
Monga
- “Haulout” – Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxin Arbugaev
- “How Do You Measure a Year?” – Jay Rosenblatt
- “The Martha Mitchell Effect” – Anne Alvergue and Beth
Levison
- “Stranger at the Gate” – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Will Win
- “The Martha Mitchell Effect” – Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
Should Win
- “Stranger at the Gate” – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
If you want to know exactly why I have this posted today
instead of last night, the direct reason is that I made a last minute decision
to watch the shorts. And it took longer than I was expecting. These are
categories that many don’t seem to ever care for, but I enjoy checking these
out every year. Picking them correctly is almost an impossible task. I decided
to go with “The Martha Mitchell Effect” because it tackles the Watergate
scandal with Richard Nixon, specifically with how the wife of Nixon’s attorney
general called him long before anyone else did, but wasn’t taken seriously.
Perhaps that political angle will connect with enough voters to give it a win?
Personally I watched four of these five. “How Do You Measure a Year?” seemed
like the most intriguing subject matter, but is the one that’s not available.
It’s apparently scheduled for HBO in June. But of the other four, while they
were all solid, “Stranger at the Gate” gave me the most emotional response. I
was fuming at the beginning, but it came full circle in a way that was quite
satisfying. Although I am a big animal fan, so “The Elephant Whisperers” was
the other choice I considered for my personal pick.
Short Film (Animated)
Nominations
- “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” – Charlie
Mackesy and Matthew Freud
- “The Flying Sailor” – Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
- “Ice Merchants” – João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
- “My year of Dicks” – Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
- “An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It” – Lachlan Pendragon
Will Win
- “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” – Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
Should Win
- “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” – Charlie
Mackesy and Matthew Freud
This was a funny category. The best part of it was listening
to Riz Ahmed announce those last two nominees on nomination morning. Speaking
of which, “My Year of Dicks” is on Hulu and I currently don’t have Hulu, so I
wasn’t able to watch that. But in an attempt to feel the room, it feels like
there’s been a much stronger reaction to “- “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the
Horse” and after watching it… this morning… I can see why. It’s a beautiful
little animated short, currently on Apple TV+, with lots of nuggets of wisdom
packed in. It’s a very good watch if you have 40 minutes to spare.
Short Film (Live
Action)
Nominations
- “An Irish Goodbye” – Tom Berkeley and Ross White
- “Ivalu” – Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
- “Le pupille” – Alice Rohrwacher and Aflonso Cuarón
- “Night Ride (Nattrickken)” – Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid
Larssen
- “The Red Suitcase” – Cyrus Neshvad
Will Win
- “Le pupille” – Alice Rohrwacher and Aflonso Cuarón
Should Win
- n/a
I’m not making a personal pick on this one because only two
are available to be watched online. If I miss one or two, then fine. But if I
wasn’t able to watch most of them, then that doesn’t feel fair. But I’m still
making a prediction on who is going to win. And maybe it’s because it’s the
low-hanging fruit in terms of what feels like a safe pick, but it feels
reasonable to suggest that the Academy will use this as another opportunity to
give an Oscar to Aflonso Cuarón. Plus, it’s on Disney+, so it’s the most
accessible. Not that accessibility matters to Oscar voters because they get
special access to all of these, but still.
International Feature
Film
Nominations
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Germany
- “Argentina, 1985” – Argentina
- “Close” – Belgium
- “EO” – Poland
- “The Quiet Girl” – Ireland
Will Win
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Germany
Should Win
- n/a
If you’re tired of the traditional Hollywood affair that you
get fed constantly by movie studios, something I would highly recommend is
diving into categories like this. There are so many various foreign films that
are incredible. And if you’re willing to read subtitles, you’re opening the
door wide open to a lot of new and exciting avenues to experience with film.
You just might have to start with years past rather than the current year
because these movies are almost never available right at Oscar time, which is
annoying. Except for the first two. “All Quiet on the Western Front” is on
Netflix and “Argentina, 1985” is on Amazon Prime. Hence is why I’m again not
making a personal pick. But the prediction is the easiest of the night. You
don’t get nominated for nine Oscars and lose international feature. Maybe if
“RRR” or “Decision to Leave” were included, that would be a different story.
But they’re not. And if you’re curious, “RRR” is not the Academy’s fault for
getting left out. Each country makes a submission and India did not choose “RRR,”
which is a baffling choice by them.
Documentary Feature Film
Nominations
- “All That Breathes” – Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy
Leifer
- “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” – Laura Poitras, Howard
Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov
- “Fire of Love” – Sara Dorsa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
- “A House Made of Splinters” – Simon Lereng Wilmont and
Monica Hellström
- “Navalny” – Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris
Will Win
- “Navalny” – Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris
Should Win
- n/a
This is the last category where I’m in trouble. And it makes
me sad that I only got around to watching “Fire of Love,” but you can’t do a
last minute binge of full-length documentaries. You need to set aside more time
and that is a thing that I did not do. But at the very least I will be watching
“Navalny” and “All That Breathes” very soon because both of those are on HBO
Max. And if you haven’t seen “Fire of Love,” it’s on Disney+. I didn’t love it quite
as much as some, but it’s still solid. And given the constant buzz I’ve heard
about it throughout the year, I wouldn’t be surprised if it did win, but
“Navalny” follows the assassination attempt on former Russian opposition leader
Alexei Navalny in August 2020, as well as the events surrounding that. That
just seems like the type of relevant documentary that the Academy will go for.
But at the same time this is a category where weird things happen all the time,
so I might have just as easy of a time picking one of these out of a hat.
Music (Original Song)
Nominations
- “Applause” – Sofia Carson (From “Tell It Like a Woman”; Music
and Lyrics by Diane Warren)
- “Hold My Hand” – Lady Gaga (From “Top Gun: Maverick”; Music
and Lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop)
- “Lift Me Up” – Rihanna (From “Black Panther: Wakanda
Forever”; Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyrics by
Tems and Ryan Coogler)
- “Naatu Naatu” – Rahul Sipligunj, Kaala Bhairava and M.M.
Keeravani (From “RRR”; Music by M.M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose)
- “This is a Life” – Son Lux ft. Mitski and David Byrne (from “Everything Everywhere All at Once”; Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne)
Will Win
- “Naatu Naatu” – Rahul Sipligunj, Kaala Bhairava and M.M. Keeravani (From “RRR”; Music by M.M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose)
Should Win
- “Naatu Naatu” – Rahul Sipligunj, Kaala Bhairava and M.M.
Keeravani (From “RRR”; Music by M.M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose)
I’m not even going to entertain the idea that some other
song wins this award that’s not “Naatu Naatu.” And maybe that’s not being as
objective as I should be, but it has been winning in most of the precursors it
was up for and it just seems to have all the momentum behind it. I’ve listened
to the song and watched the scene from “RRR” more times than I care to admit in
the last month and if you don’t absolutely love it as well, I might think
something is wrong with you. I mean, who wouldn’t love a big giant, absurd musical
number taking place randomly in the middle of an absurdly insane Indian action
film? Also, I do think the Grinches who aren’t on board in the Academy will
have their vote split between Rihanna and Lady Gaga. I almost think “This is
Life” has the better chance of pulling the upset in the event it rides the
train of an “Everything Everywhere” sweep.
Music (Original Score)
Nominations
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Volker Bertelmann
- “Babylon” – Justin Hurwitz
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” – Carter Burwell
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Son Lux
- “The Fabelmans” – John Williams
Will Win
- “Babylon” – Justin Hurwitz
Should Win
- “Babylon” – Justin Hurwitz
This category is tough because there are five solid scores
here and I can envision just about everything taking this. You can’t count out
John Williams. Carter Burwell seems due after two other losses in the last
decade (“Carol” and “Three Billboards”). The big war movie could sweep all the
technical categories and “Everything Everywhere” might sweep everything, but
that hook in the “Babylon” score is one of the most infectious hooks from a
score that I’ve heard in a long time. It made for possibly the best trailer of
last year and I’m so happy that it was a big part of the movie rather than it
just being a trailer hook. It’s easily the score I’ve gone back to, thus making
it the easy pick for my personal vote, but I think the thing that also makes me
lean to predicting it to win is that it’s also the hook on the commercial for
the Oscars tonight, which seems to mean that it’s caught on beyond just the
film it’s in. And Justin Hurwitz does have two Oscar trophies thanks to “La La
Land,” so he’s not an unfamiliar name to them.
Visual Effects
Nominations
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Frank Petzold, Viktor
Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham,
Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
- “The Batman” – Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands
and Dominic Tuohy
- “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – Geoffrey Baumann, Craig
Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher
Will Win
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
Should Win
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham,
Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
Sure. Take your visual effects trophy, “Avatar.” I’m not
going to be an idiot and say it doesn’t deserve it in this category, either,
because it totally does. I just wish there was a movie to go along with its
visual effects. And at the least I can be happy that the movie is fairly quiet
in the other categories. I’m thinking that this is the only trophy it wins.
Sound
Nominations
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Viktor Prášil, Frank
Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – Julian Horwarth, Gwendolyn
Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael
Hedges
- “The Batman” – Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas
Murray and Andy Nelson
- “Elvis” – David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and
Michael Keller
- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
Will Win
- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
Should Win
- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al
Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
“Top Gun: Maverick” is undoubtedly a movie that everyone
loves. And even though it’s kinda getting overshadowed in this awards race due
to momentum of “Everything Everywhere” and “All Quiet on the Western Front,” I
don’t think it’s going home empty. And if there’s one trophy that it deserves
to win, isn’t it the category the sound was so awe-inspiring that you can feel
it? This was the best IMAX experience I’ve ever had and it’s the sound design
that’s the reason for that. That said, I’m not confident in this pick because
there’s a war movie in this category. Don’t underestimate the power of a
well-loved war film when it comes to these technical categories.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominations
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Heike Merker and Linda
Eisenhamerová
- “The Batman” – Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
- “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – Camille Friend and Joel
Harlow
- “Elvis” – Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
- “The Whale” – Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Annemarie Bradley
Will Win
- “Elvis” – Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
Should Win
- “The Whale” – Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Annemarie
Bradley
This feels like a race between “Elvis” and “The Whale.” It
seems like it should be obvious because the makeup on Brendan Fraser was half
the reason why that performance worked so well. Unfortunately it feels like
“Elvis” has enough steam to take away a few awards that I’m not so sure it
really deserves? But I suppose I can’t get too mad at it for this one because
they did a great job of transforming Austin Butler into Elvis. So sure. But
again, watch out for the war movie. That was some great makeup work in that
movie and in a split between “Elvis” and “The Whale,” this would be one
surprise win that I personally wouldn’t be too terribly shocked at that not
many seem to be expecting.
Film Editing
Nominations
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
- “Elvis” – Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Paul Rogers
- “Tár” – Monkia Willi
- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Eddie Hamilton
Will Win
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Paul Rogers
Should Win
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Paul Rogers
And it begins. I think it’s going to be a great night for
“Everything Everywhere” and although this would be another category that makes
sense for “Top Gun: Maverick” given how much reported aerial footage they went
through to make the movie work. But I think that’s less apparent when you sit
down and watch the movie. And if the Academy loves “Everything Everywhere” as
much as I think they do, this seems like an obvious win that they’ll give it
given that the bonkers multiverse stuff that happens in the movie has a lot of
crazy editing work to give it the proper effect. And that is something you can
see without having to know any behind the scenes work.
Costume Design
Nominations
- “Babylon” – Mary Zophres
- “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – Ruth Carter
- “Elvis” – Catherine Martin
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Shirley Kurata
- “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” – Jenny Beavan
Will Win
- “Elvis” – Catherine Martin
Should Win
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Shirley Kurata
Again, I can’t be too angry at the idea of “Elvis” winning
costume design. Making Austin Butler look like Elvis is one part makeup and
hairstyling and the other part costume design. And I’m not getting a strong
vibe on anything else in this category. But my personal pick is trickier.
Obviously “Wakanda Forever” had some great costume work. But there was also a
few outfits for some of our heroes that looked like Power Rangers or other
cringy outfits, so I can’t go there. “Babylon” is tempting because there are a
lot of great 20s outfits that make those scenes wild and fun, but one
potentially overlooked part of “Everything Everywhere” is in the giant
multiverse of it all, there’s a lot of different costumes that had to be
figured out and tried on to give each of the variants of these characters their
own look and feel, so that’s where I’m leaning towards personally.
Cinematography
Nominations
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – James Friend
- “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” – Darius
Khondji
- “Elvis” – Mandy Walker
- “Empire of Light” – Roger Deakins
- “Tár” – Florian Hoffmeister
Will Win
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – James Friend
Should Win
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – James Friend
Why is “Top Gun: Maverick” not in this category? That was
another one of the more odd choices for nominations this year. And it would be
the obvious winner, too. Given that it’s not, I think it’s a somewhat easy
prediction to give this to “All Quiet,” which, as you’ve noted, I think has
potential to win a lot of these technical categories. Not to be lost in the
shuffle, though, is the fact that a Mandy Walker win would make for the first
female cinematography win in this category. I’m not sure of the cinematography
in “Elvis” stands out as much as some of the other choices, but that would be a
cool thing that happens. And Roger Deakins could theoretically snag a second
win if you want a surprise choice. But the war movie just seems too strong to
ignore, both in my prediction and my personal take.
Production Design
Nominations
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Production Design:
Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – Production Design: Dylan Cole
and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
- “Babylon” – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set
Decoration: Anthony Carlino
- “Elvis” – Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen
Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
- “The Fabelmans” – Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara
Will Win
- “Babylon” – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Should Win
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Production Design:
Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
This is a tough category to consider. I think “Babylon” has
been the front runner in this category and it makes sense given that the
Academy often loves movies about movies. And even if “Babylon” was more
divisive this year, making the movie look like old-time Hollywood is a solid
trick to getting yourself a trophy, so that’s what I’m going to predict will
happen. But again, the war movie. And in thinking of the war movie, that seems like
the mildly more impressive feat in recreating World War I as opposed to the
umpteenth time we’ve gone back to old Hollywood. I guess we’ve had plenty of
war movies, too. But it still seems to be a tad bit more impressive to me. It’s
a lot of work to put World War I on the screen. I’ve also heard mild buzz that
this is a category that “Avatar” could sneak in a second win. I’m not sure I’d
be on board with that. Sure, there are actual sets in that movie, but it seems
more heavily weighted on the visual effects in that movie in compared to these
other two.
Animated Feature Film
Nominations
- “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” – Guillermo del Toro,
Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley (Netflix Animation)
- “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” – Dean Fleischer Camp,
Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey (Cinereach)
- “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” – Joel Crawford and Mark
Swift (DreamWorks Animation)
- “The Sea Beast” – Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
(Netflix Animation)
- “Turning Red” – Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins (Pixar)
Will Win
- “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” – Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley (Netflix Animation)
Should Win
- “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” – Guillermo del Toro,
Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley (Netflix Animation)
Another easy category to predict. There’s a few categories
that seem like they’re set in stone and this is one of them. Guillermo has been
sweeping everything he’s up for without much of a conversation as to a
potential contender. And for good reason. This was one of my top movies of the
year. A movie that should’ve been in even more than just the animated category.
At least give it a song nomination that it was getting elsewhere. Now “Puss in
Boots” has been gaining a lot of momentum in a very natural way, being a movie
that is also genuinely really good that perhaps no one was expecting to be. But
I don’t think Guillermo is just way too far ahead for it to overtake it. In
other years, maybe. But not when we have an animated classic up for the award.
Writing (Adapted
Screenplay)
Nominations
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Edward Berger, Lesley
Paterson and Ian Stokell
- “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” – Rian Johnson
- “Living” – Kazuo Ishiguro
- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Snger,
Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig and Justin Marks
- “Women Talking” – Sarah Polley
Will Win
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell
Should Win
- “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” – Rian Johnson
And now we get into the bigger categories. Adapted
screenplay is very interesting because, of the two writing categories, I feel
it’s the weaker of the two this year. Also as I’ve referenced, I think it’s
possible for “All Quiet” to sneak in and win a lot of these categories it’s up
for. And if it happens, people might think we’re in for a potential upset in
best picture. While I don’t think the latter is going to happen, I am going to
make an official call here and predict it to win adapted screenplay instead of
continuing to say it could happen, but not pulling the trigger. And I think the
reasoning is that “Women Talking” feels pretty weak. Yes, the writing is
fantastic. But the reaction to the movie was more middling than I was expecting
and the box office was nearly non-existent. It snuck into picture, but it also
got no acting nods, which seemed like it should’ve had at least two. So I’m not
sure how much the Academy loves this movie. For my personal take, I was close
to picking it. I’m not sure the screenplay of “All Quiet” was its best quality.
Same thing for “Top Gun: Maverick,” although the story was really good. But
Rian Johnson’s sequel to “Knives Out” was just as sharp as the first, pun intended.
So that’s what I’d go for if I had a vote.
Writing (Original
Screenplay)
Nominations
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” – Martin McDonagh
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Daniel Kwan and
Daniel Scheinert
- “The Fabelmans” – Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
- “Tár” – Tod Field
- “Triangle of Sadness” – Ruben Östlund
Will Win
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Should Win
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Daniel Kwan and
Daniel Scheinert
I’ll spare you my soap box of how great “Everything
Everywhere” is. But it was my easy top movie of the year and the writing is
probably the best reason for that. The fact that such a crazy, bonkers
multiverse movie works so well is an absolute miracle. Every little detail that
you see all comes together and that’s a lot of brilliant work of writing to go
along with the editing and the acting. If the screenplay doesn’t work, neither
does the movie. And although there’s a lot of solid competition here with a lot
of beloved movies, the “Everything Everywhere” train seems like it’s leaving
Martin McDonagh, Steven Spielberg, and Tod Field completely in the dust, which
is an incredible feat. It’s not taking advantage of a weak year. It’s
steamrolling through a very competitive year.
Actress in a
Supporting Role
Nominations
- Angela Bassett – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
- Hong Chau – “The Whale”
- Kerry Condon – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
- Jamie Lee Curtis – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
- Stephanie Hsu – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Will Win
- Jamie Lee Curtis – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Should Win
- Stephanie Hsu – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
This race has been very interesting to watch. It seemed like
Angela Bassett was primed to run away with this early in the season. But when
you look at everything she won, none of it was directly connected to Oscar
voters. When Oscar voters chimed in via BAFTA and SAG, she lost. To two
different competitors. But she still lost. And I think Angela Bassett is No. 3
in this category behind Jamie Lee Curtis and Kerry Condon. And I think the fact
that Jamie Lee Curtis won SAG, the final big category before Oscar voting
actually happened, might be what puts her over the top. I also remember being
impressed on nomination morning at how much “Everything Everywhere” showed up,
which included twice in this category. So that’s what makes me feel like taking
Curtis for the win and following SAG. But the vote between Curtis, Condon, and
Bassett is likely very close and I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the
three ladies take it. Me personally, I would go the other lady in “Everything
Everywhere.” If Stephanie Hsu’s name were to be called, I might jump up and
scream in joy.
Actor in a Supporting
Role
Nominations
- Brendan Gleeson – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
- Brian Tyree Henry – “Causeway”
- Judd Hirsch – “The Fabelmans”
- Barry Keoghan – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
- Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Will Win
- Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Should Win
- Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Unlike the other three acting categories, there’s no drama
here. The one hiccup in the season was Barry Keoghan winning at BAFTA, but Ke
Huy Quan has won just about everything else, Oscar related or not, in this
awards season. And I think the energy he exudes with each ensuing speech just
makes him more likeable. I don’t see him losing this award. And that makes me
happy because it’s the most deserving. Don’t you dare screw this up, Academy.
Actress in a Leading
Role
Nominations
- Cate Blanchett – “Tár”
- Ana de Armas – “Blonde”
- Andrea Riseborough – “To Leslie”
- Michelle Williams – “The Fabelmans”
- Michelle Yeoh – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Will Win
- Michelle Yeoh – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Should Win
- Michelle Yeoh – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Like the supporting actress category, the lead actress
category also has had an interesting turn this awards season. Although it’s not
a three-way race like in supporting, Cate Blanchett seemed like she was running
away with this one early. And she did win in plenty of key races. Until the
momentum seemed to shift to Michelle Yeoh. And the kicker here is that it seems
like the biggest supporter of Michelle Yeoh is… Cate Blanchett. I personally
wouldn’t be upset at either. Two great performances. But I would love to see Michelle
Yeoh take this home. It would be another beautiful moment. And if Cate
Blanchett also seems to want that to happen, I could see that being the
deciding vote for Oscar voters who are a bit torn.
Actor in a Leading
Role
Nominations
- Austin Butler – “Elvis”
- Colin Farrell – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
- Brendan Fraser – “The Whale”
- Paul Mescal – “Aftersun”
- Bill Nighy – “Living”
Will Win
- Brendan Fraser – “The Whale”
Should Win
- Brendan Fraser – “The Whale”
I’m excited for all the acting categories this year. Because
supporting actor seems like the only one that’s locked up. Lead actor is
another three horse race that seems to have narrowed down to a two horse race,
with Collin Farrell being the one that seems to have been left out. And that’s
a bit of a shame because he had such a great year. But I suppose we don’t give
awards for the entire body of work, so it’s fair. The Brendan Fraser comeback
story is what led things early on. That got a little bit murky when his actual
film got mixed reaction, which led Colin Farrell and Austin Butler into the
race. But people still liked Fraser’s performance, even if they didn’t like the
film. And they REALLY liked his speeches when he did win, which has helped him
stay in it. But when it comes to the most important precursors, Colin Farrell
didn’t get any wins where he needed, so I think he fell out. Austin Butler won
BAFTA, which is also what Anthony Hopkins won in his lead up to upsetting the
late Chadwick Boseman two years ago, so BAFTA can’t be ignored. And Butler
seems like the current favorite? And although I didn’t like “Elvis,” his
performance was great, so I’m fine with that. It makes me feel like I’m going
out on a bit of an edge in saying that it’ll come full circle to Fraser, but
Fraser did win the SAG, thus making him the last one to give a speech before
Oscar voting. And I do think the likeability factor will come into play and
give him the win. And that’s where my personal pick is coming in as well. The
performance is great. But I also really want to see him win because of his
passion and humility.
Directing
Nominations
- Martin McDonagh – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere
All at Once”
- Steven Spielberg – “The Fabelmans”
- Todd Field – “Tár”
- Ruben Östlund – “Triangle of Sadness
Will Win
- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Should Win
- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere
All at Once”
Unlike many of the other categories, this is a major
category that seems like it’s wrapped. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, aka The
Daniels, are coming in and raining on Spielberg’s parade. It seemed like
Spielberg’s year. And Spielberg won at the Globes, which definitely don’t
matter. But his speech there showed how much he cared about this project and
this story of his life that he finally told. And that made me like “The
Fabelmans” even more. Part of me does want to see Spielberg give his Oscar
speech. I’d be fine with a director/picture split in that way. But The Daniels
have left him in the dust. They’ve won everything they’ve needed to, while
Spielberg seems to have been forgotten. And the movie didn’t perform that well,
either, which was surprising. So while the Spielberg speech would be really
neat to hear, with my favorite movie of the year being “Everything Everywhere,”
I do think this will be a deserved win because there was so much to juggle with
“Everything Everywhere” and they made it all work perfectly. Editing. Acting.
Writing. All of it. It all comes down to the guys steering the ship and they
were the perfect captains and have elevated themselves to legendary status. The
real challenge will be to follow this up. What do they have up their sleeves
next? The who world is excited to see.
Best Picture
Nominations
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Malte Grunert, Producer
(Netflix)
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – James Cameron and Jon Landau,
Producers (20th Century Studios)
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” – Graham Broadbent, Pete
Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Elvis” – Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman,
Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers (Warner Bros.)
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Daniel Kwan, Daniel
Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers (A24)
- “The Fabelmans” – Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven
Speilberg and Tony Kushner, Producers (Universal)
- “Tár” – Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert,
Producers (Focus Features)
- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie,
David Ellison and Jerry Bruckhemer, Producers (Paramount)
- “Triangle of Sadness” – Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe
Bober, Producers (NEON)
- “Women Talking” – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances
McDormand, Producers (United Artists Releasing)
Will Win
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers (A24)
Should Win
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Daniel Kwan, Daniel
Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers (A24)
Of course I want “Everything Everywhere” to win. If you didn’t
know that by now, this post has definitely made that clear. It’s my top movie
of 2022. In years past I talk about my curse with my favorite movie not winning
best picture in the years I’ve been following the Oscars. And while the
superstition in me wants to go out on a limb and pick something else so as to
not curse myself, the crazy thing is that there’s not a good option. Almost
every year it ends up boiling down to a two movie race that becomes hard to
predict with the preferential ballot, but there is no contender. “Everything
Everywhere” has steamrolled through the entire season, especially in key
precursors that actually matter. So instead of trying to debate on how it’s
possible for another movie to take the win, let me just reflect on this crazy
journey that we’ve had. This movie premiered a year ago. And not in my wildest
dreams did I think a movie this weird and this different would actually break
through. Best case scenario, maybe it sneaks in and gets a screenplay nod and
perhaps one acting nod. But now not only has it successfully broken through, it’s
looking like perhaps the biggest Oscar juggernaut since “Return of the King.”
And that feels me with so much joy. If you haven’t seen it for some reason,
believe the hype and jump on the train. This movie is special and it deserves
to have the special night that it’s about to have.
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