Movie Preview: October 2023

It was an expectedly slow month at the box office in September. Based on expectations and budget, both “Expendables 3” and “The Nun II” performed admirably. “Expendables 3” opened with almost the exact same total as the previous two, which made the franchise even more impressively consistent. It finished September with $85.2 million, so not holding quite as well as the first two, despite the consistent opening. But that was good enough for the top movie of the month, which tells the story of September. The Nun II finished the month with $75.5 million domestically, in second place. With a responsible budget of $38 million and a worldwide total of just under $235 million, that’s another win for The Conjuring franchise. But continuing to tell the story of the month, “Barbie” was third place, adding $33.8 million. Nothing else was able to top that, as movies like “A Haunting in Venice,” “Expend4bles” and “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” mostly failed to register. “PAW Patrol” and “Sax X” had solid openings in the final weekend, but only counted for two calendar days in the month. 

Which then means we look forward to October, our current month. Historically speaking, October is also not known to be a very big month at the box office, even though it’s often a slight step up from September. But this October, even though there’s not much on the calendar in terms of quantity, is actually looking at a few big releases as we celebrate the Halloween season while also beginning the rollout for awards season. The biggest theatrical event of the month, though, won’t even be a movie. It’s a concert. A concert released in theaters that looks to scare away all the competition. Of course we’ll get to the details of Ms. Swift’s concert and all the rest in detail below, so let’s dive in and explore!

As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of boxofficepro.com and the-numbers.com. The movies listed are the ones currently listed for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are always subject to change.

October 6 – 8

Universal's "The Exorcist: Believer"

Spooky season officially was kicked off at the end of September with the release of “Saw X,” which had a respectable opening of $18.3 million. While that wasn’t as high as the franchise’s peak, it was nevertheless a big step up from both “Jigsaw” and “Spiral,” the previous two entries. And with a budget of just $13 million, there’s at least a financial justification for an eleventh film if they want it. Now just one week later, another horror franchise entry is currently haunting theaters with The Exorcist: Believer. If I’m not mistaken, this is approximately the 1,786th Exorcist movie to hit theaters since the original completely changed the horror game back in 1973.

OK, yes, I confess that that number is an exaggeration. In terms of the actual Exorcist canon, there is the original trilogy, “The Exorcist” in 1973, “Exorcist II: The Heretic” in 1977, and “The Exorcist III” in 1990. Then there were two prequel films, “Exorcist: The Beginning” and “Dominion: Prequel to the Exorcist,” released in 2004 and 2005, respectively. Then there was a TV series titled simply “The Exorcist” that ran for two seasons from 2016-17 before getting canceled. And finally there was a novel written in 1971 that predated the movie, with a follow-up novel titled “Legion,” published in 1983. So I suppose that’s actually not a ton of official entries, but the reason I mention that it feels like there’s been a lot is that there’s been a very long list of horror films that have used the Exorcism concept, even though most of them aren’t directly connected with the official franchise. And probably the reason why there’s been so many is that “The Exorcist,” released in December 1973, finished its initial theatrical run with $193 million domestically. Subsequent releases has boosted it to $230.3 million domestically and $428.2 million worldwide. Unadjusted for ticket price inflation, that domestic total STILL is the 4th highest grossing horror film ever. And that’s only if you count “Jaws” and “I am Legend.” If you specifically look at R-rated horror films, “The Exorcist” held that record of the highest-grossing R-rated horror film ever for 44 years until 2017’s “IT” topped it.

Putting that into more context, given that “The Exorcist” was released in 1973 and still has made more money than almost every other horror film, despite ticket prices today being much higher than they were back then, if you adjust for ticket price inflation, “The Exorcist” would clock in as the 9th highest grossing movie ever at the domestic box office, that based on data compiled by Box Office Mojo that was continued by Wikipedia. For some reason Box Office Mojo stopped updating that list in 2019, so Wikipedia has kept it up to date with their own calculations added. They estimate, based on 2022 ticket prices, that “The Exorcist” would have made the equivalent of $1.171 billion domestically in today’s money. That’s two slots higher than 2015’s “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” which updates to $1.145 billion in today’s ticket prices. So if you remember the phenomenon that “The Force Awakens” was, that’s what “The Exorcist” compares to.

Anyways, with that box office history lesson behind us, “The Exorcist: Believer” hails from director David Gordon Green, who most recently did an updated trilogy of “Halloween” films. And now he’s giving “The Exorcist” the same treatment, with “Believer” being approached as a direct sequel to 1973’s “The Exorcist.” Like “Halloween,” this will also be a planned trilogy, with “The Exorcist: Deceiver” currently set for April 2025 and as of now an untitled third movie with a TBD release date, although the pattern would suggest maybe 2027. “Believer” was received poorly, with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 23 percent as of me typing this post. Despite that, it’s still on pace for an opening close to $30 million.

While “The Exorcist: Believer” is the only official new wide release of the weekend, Disney is re-releasing Hocus Pocus in 1,430 theaters for Halloween season. In moderate release, IFC Films will be releasing the new horror film When Evil Lurks in 659 theaters before it becomes available on Shudder on October 27. So perhaps if you’re in the mood for a new theatrical horror experience and the new Exorcist movie doesn’t interest you, it’s possible that this one might be near you. “When Evil Lurks” follows two brothers who come across a demon-infected man that they try to get rid of, but end up making things much worse. It was initially released at the Toronto International Film Festival last month and has so far been almost unanimously enjoyed. It has a limited 40 reviews counted on Rotten Tomatoes, but nevertheless has a 98 percent score through those 40 reviews.

October 13 – 15

Taylor Swift from The Eras Tour

As mentioned in the intro to this post, the biggest theatrical event of the month will not be a movie. It will be a Taylor Swift concert, officially titled Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour. Taylor Swift of course needs no introduction. Everyone knows who Taylor Swift is, whether they want to or not. The Eras Tour is the ongoing sixth concert tour for Swift, which began at Glendale, Arizona in March of this year and will continue through November of next year, finishing in Toronto. Taylor described this as a journey through or an homage to all of her albums up to this point. There’s a set list of 44 song divided into 10 sections. The filmed version of the concert that’s being released in theaters is listed as 169 minutes long. And actually, this isn’t the first time Taylor has filmed one of her concerts and released it to the masses. She filmed and released a recording of her Reputation Tour for Netflix in 2018, that’s still available to be watched for those who haven’t seen that. But “The Eras Tour” filming is unique because she’s putting it in theaters, both here domestically at least at AMC and Cinemark theaters, but also worldwide.

The announcement of this came it late August and the response has been very positive. I mean, who of Taylor’s fans wouldn’t want to go see a filmed version of her concert in theaters? It’s more expensive than your typical movie, with ticket prices reportedly being either $19.89 or $13.13, but that’s of course incredibly cheaper than paying for a concert. How much will this end up making at the box office? Well… a lot. While the idea of a concert movie isn’t a new one, one at this scale being released in theaters does seem like a more unique event and thus official prognostication might be hard to pinpoint exactly. However, it was reported that presales at one point were comparable to the presales of “Avengers: Endgame.” I’m not sure that means this will open to $300+ million like “Endgame” did, but most do seem to think that a $100 million opening for this concert film is pretty much guaranteed. And that might be the very low end, safe expectations. I mean, Taylor went to a football game to watch her maybe boyfriend Travis Kelce play and that led to jersey sales and Instagram followers for Kelce to soar through the roof. The next week, when Taylor also attended the Sunday Night Jets vs Chiefs game, that became the most watched NFL game since the Super Bowl. And if Swift fans can make that happen just because she went to a football game, I imagine a theatrically-released concert film will be very well attended.   

And no, there is no competition for Taylor. Some might find that unfortunate given that Friday the 13th in October is actually happening this year. “The Exorcist: Believer” was the horror film that was planning on taking advantage of that date. But the second Taylor announced her concert film on this weekend, Universal noped “Believer” right out of that date and onto the first weekend of the month, which was recently vacated by “Kraven the Hunter,” the latest solo movie from a Spider-Man villain following “Venom” and “Morbius.” “Kraven the Hunter” moved to August 30, 2024 due to the ongoing actor’s strike, which will hopefully be resolved soon, given that the writer’s came up with a deal and ended their strike last month.

October 20 – 22

Apple TV+ and Paramount's "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Taking a break from both Halloween and Taylor Swift for a moment, the third weekend of the year will be the kick-off of what should be a major awards contender this season. That movie is Martin Scorsese’s latest release, Killers of the Flower Moon. This is a movie based on the nonfiction book “Killers of the Flower Moon: The Osage Murders and the Birth of the FBI,” published in 2017 by journalist David Grann. The story here from the book and the movie, as referenced in the subtitle of the book, chronicles the story of the Osage Nation, a Native American tribe who lived in Osage County, Oklahoma, in the early 1900s. The Osage Nation became very wealthy when it was found that there were large oil deposits on their land. And given that Native Americans were found to be lesser by many white people back in the day (and perhaps still now to at least some degree – unfortunately racism still exists), the big scheme involved many of the Osage Tribe getting murdered for their money. The newly formed FBI eventually got involved and that led to the conviction and trial of many involved. Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro portray two of the main suspects involved, with Jesse Plemons playing the lead FBI agent and Lily Gladstone getting a lot of praise for her portrayal of one of the Native American women.

The box office prospects of this movie are interesting. Scorsese has been a reliable draw for a very long time, with his first feature-length directorial effort coming in 1967 via “Who’s That Knocking at My Door.” The first movie of his to get Oscar wins and nominations was “Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore” in 1974, while Scorsese got his first individual nomination in 1980 with “Raging Bull.” His most recent movie was “The Irishman,” and while that was very successful with 10 nominations, it was also a Netflix film. The one before that, “Silence” in 2016, had a very muted campaign and, although it was liked by many, didn’t do much in terms of awards or box office, which wasn’t necessarily the movie’s fault. So then we have to go back to 2013 for the last Scorsese film to have a proper theatrical run combined with strong awards play. That was “The Wolf of Wall Street,” which opened to $18.4 million domestically over the Christmas holiday and finished with $116.9 million, a final total that seems within the range of possibilities for “Killers of the Flower Moon,” especially since it’s had its release in several film festivals and has been met with very high praise. The kicker for general audiences is that Scorsese in his later years doesn’t exactly seem to be a fan of short films. This one is a big ask at 3 hours 26 minutes. But in a year where the 3-hour, R-rated historical biopic of “Oppenheimer” has made close to $1 billion worldwide, maybe the runtime here also might not be a huge deal? It’s projected by Box Office Pro to earn somewhere between $29-38 million in its opening weekend.

Like with “The Exorcist: Believer” and Taylor Swift, “Killers of the Flower Moon” doesn’t exactly have much competition this week. In addition to re-releasing “Hocus Pocus” earlier in the month, Disney will also be giving The Nightmare Before Christmas a re-release this weekend leading up to Halloween. Similarly, Fathom Events will be putting on a re-release of Back to the Future on Saturday, October 21, honoring what is now the Anniversary of when Marty McFly arrived to the future in 2015. 

And finally, certainly a potential attention-grabbing title that could make you do a double take is the nationwide expansion of Dicks: The Musical. Yep, it’s exactly what you think. From the director of “Borat” and at least one of the producers of “The Greatest Showman,” this is advertised as A24’s first musical. And you’d expect nothing less than a heavily raunchy musical from the director of “Borat.” The actual plot, if one cares about that, is somewhat of a “Parent Trap” premise. Two business rivals discover that they’re twins and decide to swap places to get their divorced parents back together. Josh Sharp, Aaron Jackson, Megan Mullally, Nathan Lane, and Megan Thee Stallion headline the cast.   

October 27 – 29 

Universal's "Five Nights at Freddy’s"

Whenever there is a new Saw film released, it’s the tradition to release it right on Halloween weekend. And that’s exactly what “Saw X” initially had in mind. But like “The Exorcist: Believer” being scared away from Friday the 13th by Taylor Swift, “Saw X” was scared away from this weekend by the impending release of Five Nights at Freddy’s, a PG-13 horror film that could potentially do huge numbers, regardless of what the critical reaction will end up being. Movie night for teens around the world right before Halloween, based on the popular video game franchise that many of them have probably played. There’s actually been nine of these games released in the main series, with a handful of spin-offs as well, the first being released back in 2014. The idea here in the games is that you’re a night time employee at a family pizza place, similar to something like “Chuck E. Cheese,” and you have to survive the animatronics that come alive and try to kill you. So like in the games, so it is in the movie. Josh Hutcherson plays a character named Mike Schmidt who gets a night job at Freddy Fazbear’s Pizza, that was once successful, but is now abandoned. And it’s because anyone there after midnight have to not get killed by the animatronics. The movie is distributed by Universal and produced by Jason Blum, who is a master at taking low budget horror films and getting them to make a ton of money.  The production budget is $25 million and it’s currently projected to easily pass that in its opening weekend.

Like is the case with every other weekend this month, we have one main event and perhaps a collection of smaller releases to supplement them. “Five Nights at Freddy’s” is definitely the main event here. But there are four smaller movies on the schedule officially listed as having a wide release scheduled. My guess is that one or more could end up in just a couple hundred theaters rather than being a huge wide release, but it’s hard to tell exactly at this point.

Of the group, one would assume that Freelance would be the one to actually get the most attention, based on the cast of John Cena, Allison Brie, Juan Pablo Raba, and Christian Slater. This is an action comedy where ex-special forces operative takes a job to provide security for a journalist interviewing a dictator, when the three of them suddenly end up on a survival mission together. It’s from the director of “Taken” and “Peppermint,” so why the trailer on YouTube only has 18K views right now is a bit of a mystery. Relativity Media helped distribute “Hypnotic” this year, a Ben Affleck-led sci-fi movie directed by Robert Rodriguez. That opened to $2.4 million from 2,118 theaters, so maybe that’s the comparison here. Unless some marketing kicks in soon.

The other potential somewhat big release is After Death, a documentary from Angel Studios, who distributed the surprise hit “Sound of Freedom” this summer, which earned $183.9 million at the domestic box office. Documentaries don’t usually register too high at the box office, so it’s hard to believe this will be another massive surprise, but “After Death” follows the stories of a handful of notable people who had near death experiences or some touch with the afterlife. This at the least could do well in certain markets.

The other two listed on the schedule are two that definitely don’t seem like they’ll be released too wide, although I could be wrong. The movie Sight is a biopic following the story of Doctor Ming Wang, one of the world’s top laser eye surgeons. It stars Terry Chen and Greg Kinnear. I’m having a hard time even hunting down a trailer for this, but it’s from the director of 2018’s “Paul, Apostle of Christ” and 2015’s “Full of Grace,” so I’m guessing there’s some Christian angle to this. The director also had a movie called “The Blind” that released last month to a bit of a surprise $4.4 million from 1,715 theaters, so maybe I’m underestimated this.

The other movie is Inspector Sun, a Spanish animated movie that in some countries is called “Inspector Sun and the Curse of the Black Widow” and was released in Spain back in December of 2022 and several other countries in between then and now. It appears that the United States is among the last to get it. Despite that, it also doesn’t appear that there’s a lot of information on this one. It seems like a fun whodunit detective movie for younger kids where the main detective is a spider and the various other characters are different bugs and small animals. Maybe it won’t attract a huge American audience, but it could be a fun thing that a handful of people end up stumbling upon.