The 95th Academy Awards: Predictions

The 95th Academy Awards are… tonight. And I’ve finally got all of my predictions ready to go. Yeah, I meant to get this out earlier. But in addition to having a busy week, I kept binging more and more last minute things instead of typing up my post. But the deadline has past and this post must get out before the ceremony actually begins, so here we go.

This post is pretty straight forward. I will go through all 23 categories at the Oscars, giving three things each. First, the list of nominees. And if there are any typos or mistakes, I apologize. That was a lot of names to type up. Second, I give my prediction on who I think will win. Third, I give my pick on who I think should win, in other words my personal pick if I were to have an Oscar ballot. Then of course I’ll finish each category with whatever thoughts I have before moving on. If I’m wrong with these, then so be it. It’s just for fun. I feel like I have a decent grasp on what’s going to happen tonight, but there’s enough doubt in a lot of the categories that I don’t think I’m going to score as well as I have in the past, but we’ll see. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or random emotional outbursts about any of this, then please let me know!

Documentary Short Film

 

Nominations

- “The Elephant Whisperers” – Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga

- “Haulout” – Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxin Arbugaev

- “How Do You Measure a Year?” – Jay Rosenblatt

- “The Martha Mitchell Effect” – Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison

- “Stranger at the Gate” – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Will Win

- “The Martha Mitchell Effect” – Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison

Should Win

- “Stranger at the Gate” – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

 

If you want to know exactly why I have this posted today instead of last night, the direct reason is that I made a last minute decision to watch the shorts. And it took longer than I was expecting. These are categories that many don’t seem to ever care for, but I enjoy checking these out every year. Picking them correctly is almost an impossible task. I decided to go with “The Martha Mitchell Effect” because it tackles the Watergate scandal with Richard Nixon, specifically with how the wife of Nixon’s attorney general called him long before anyone else did, but wasn’t taken seriously. Perhaps that political angle will connect with enough voters to give it a win? Personally I watched four of these five. “How Do You Measure a Year?” seemed like the most intriguing subject matter, but is the one that’s not available. It’s apparently scheduled for HBO in June. But of the other four, while they were all solid, “Stranger at the Gate” gave me the most emotional response. I was fuming at the beginning, but it came full circle in a way that was quite satisfying. Although I am a big animal fan, so “The Elephant Whisperers” was the other choice I considered for my personal pick.

 

 

Short Film (Animated)

 

Nominations

- “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” – Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud

- “The Flying Sailor” – Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

- “Ice Merchants” – João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano

- “My year of Dicks” – Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon

- “An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It” – Lachlan Pendragon

Will Win

- “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” – Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud

Should Win

- “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” – Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud

 

This was a funny category. The best part of it was listening to Riz Ahmed announce those last two nominees on nomination morning. Speaking of which, “My Year of Dicks” is on Hulu and I currently don’t have Hulu, so I wasn’t able to watch that. But in an attempt to feel the room, it feels like there’s been a much stronger reaction to “- “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” and after watching it… this morning… I can see why. It’s a beautiful little animated short, currently on Apple TV+, with lots of nuggets of wisdom packed in. It’s a very good watch if you have 40 minutes to spare.

 

Short Film (Live Action)

 

Nominations

- “An Irish Goodbye” – Tom Berkeley and Ross White

- “Ivalu” – Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan

- “Le pupille” – Alice Rohrwacher and Aflonso Cuarón

- “Night Ride (Nattrickken)” – Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen

- “The Red Suitcase” – Cyrus Neshvad

Will Win

- “Le pupille” – Alice Rohrwacher and Aflonso Cuarón

Should Win

- n/a

I’m not making a personal pick on this one because only two are available to be watched online. If I miss one or two, then fine. But if I wasn’t able to watch most of them, then that doesn’t feel fair. But I’m still making a prediction on who is going to win. And maybe it’s because it’s the low-hanging fruit in terms of what feels like a safe pick, but it feels reasonable to suggest that the Academy will use this as another opportunity to give an Oscar to Aflonso Cuarón. Plus, it’s on Disney+, so it’s the most accessible. Not that accessibility matters to Oscar voters because they get special access to all of these, but still.

 

International Feature Film

 

Nominations

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Germany

- “Argentina, 1985” – Argentina

- “Close” – Belgium

- “EO” – Poland

- “The Quiet Girl” – Ireland

Will Win

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Germany

Should Win

- n/a

 

If you’re tired of the traditional Hollywood affair that you get fed constantly by movie studios, something I would highly recommend is diving into categories like this. There are so many various foreign films that are incredible. And if you’re willing to read subtitles, you’re opening the door wide open to a lot of new and exciting avenues to experience with film. You just might have to start with years past rather than the current year because these movies are almost never available right at Oscar time, which is annoying. Except for the first two. “All Quiet on the Western Front” is on Netflix and “Argentina, 1985” is on Amazon Prime. Hence is why I’m again not making a personal pick. But the prediction is the easiest of the night. You don’t get nominated for nine Oscars and lose international feature. Maybe if “RRR” or “Decision to Leave” were included, that would be a different story. But they’re not. And if you’re curious, “RRR” is not the Academy’s fault for getting left out. Each country makes a submission and India did not choose “RRR,” which is a baffling choice by them.

 

Documentary Feature Film

Nominations

- “All That Breathes” – Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer

- “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” – Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov

- “Fire of Love” – Sara Dorsa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman

- “A House Made of Splinters” – Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström

- “Navalny” – Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris

Will Win

- “Navalny” – Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris

Should Win

- n/a

 

This is the last category where I’m in trouble. And it makes me sad that I only got around to watching “Fire of Love,” but you can’t do a last minute binge of full-length documentaries. You need to set aside more time and that is a thing that I did not do. But at the very least I will be watching “Navalny” and “All That Breathes” very soon because both of those are on HBO Max. And if you haven’t seen “Fire of Love,” it’s on Disney+. I didn’t love it quite as much as some, but it’s still solid. And given the constant buzz I’ve heard about it throughout the year, I wouldn’t be surprised if it did win, but “Navalny” follows the assassination attempt on former Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in August 2020, as well as the events surrounding that. That just seems like the type of relevant documentary that the Academy will go for. But at the same time this is a category where weird things happen all the time, so I might have just as easy of a time picking one of these out of a hat.

 

Music (Original Song)

 

Nominations

- “Applause” – Sofia Carson (From “Tell It Like a Woman”; Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren)

- “Hold My Hand” – Lady Gaga (From “Top Gun: Maverick”; Music and Lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop)

- “Lift Me Up” – Rihanna (From “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”; Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler)

- “Naatu Naatu” – Rahul Sipligunj, Kaala Bhairava and M.M. Keeravani (From “RRR”; Music by M.M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose)

- “This is a Life” – Son Lux ft. Mitski and David Byrne (from “Everything Everywhere All at Once”; Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne)

Will Win

- “Naatu Naatu” – Rahul Sipligunj, Kaala Bhairava and M.M. Keeravani (From “RRR”; Music by M.M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose)

Should Win

- “Naatu Naatu” – Rahul Sipligunj, Kaala Bhairava and M.M. Keeravani (From “RRR”; Music by M.M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose)

 

I’m not even going to entertain the idea that some other song wins this award that’s not “Naatu Naatu.” And maybe that’s not being as objective as I should be, but it has been winning in most of the precursors it was up for and it just seems to have all the momentum behind it. I’ve listened to the song and watched the scene from “RRR” more times than I care to admit in the last month and if you don’t absolutely love it as well, I might think something is wrong with you. I mean, who wouldn’t love a big giant, absurd musical number taking place randomly in the middle of an absurdly insane Indian action film? Also, I do think the Grinches who aren’t on board in the Academy will have their vote split between Rihanna and Lady Gaga. I almost think “This is Life” has the better chance of pulling the upset in the event it rides the train of an “Everything Everywhere” sweep.

 

Music (Original Score)

Nominations

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Volker Bertelmann

- “Babylon” – Justin Hurwitz

- “The Banshees of Inisherin” – Carter Burwell

- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Son Lux

- “The Fabelmans” – John Williams

Will Win

- “Babylon” – Justin Hurwitz

Should Win

- “Babylon” – Justin Hurwitz

 

This category is tough because there are five solid scores here and I can envision just about everything taking this. You can’t count out John Williams. Carter Burwell seems due after two other losses in the last decade (“Carol” and “Three Billboards”). The big war movie could sweep all the technical categories and “Everything Everywhere” might sweep everything, but that hook in the “Babylon” score is one of the most infectious hooks from a score that I’ve heard in a long time. It made for possibly the best trailer of last year and I’m so happy that it was a big part of the movie rather than it just being a trailer hook. It’s easily the score I’ve gone back to, thus making it the easy pick for my personal vote, but I think the thing that also makes me lean to predicting it to win is that it’s also the hook on the commercial for the Oscars tonight, which seems to mean that it’s caught on beyond just the film it’s in. And Justin Hurwitz does have two Oscar trophies thanks to “La La Land,” so he’s not an unfamiliar name to them.

 

Visual Effects

 

Nominations

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar

- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

- “The Batman” – Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy

- “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick

- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

Will Win

- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

Should Win

- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

 

Sure. Take your visual effects trophy, “Avatar.” I’m not going to be an idiot and say it doesn’t deserve it in this category, either, because it totally does. I just wish there was a movie to go along with its visual effects. And at the least I can be happy that the movie is fairly quiet in the other categories. I’m thinking that this is the only trophy it wins.

 

Sound

 

Nominations

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte

- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – Julian Horwarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges

- “The Batman” – Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson

- “Elvis” – David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller

- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

Will Win

- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

Should Win

- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

 

“Top Gun: Maverick” is undoubtedly a movie that everyone loves. And even though it’s kinda getting overshadowed in this awards race due to momentum of “Everything Everywhere” and “All Quiet on the Western Front,” I don’t think it’s going home empty. And if there’s one trophy that it deserves to win, isn’t it the category the sound was so awe-inspiring that you can feel it? This was the best IMAX experience I’ve ever had and it’s the sound design that’s the reason for that. That said, I’m not confident in this pick because there’s a war movie in this category. Don’t underestimate the power of a well-loved war film when it comes to these technical categories.

 

Makeup and Hairstyling

 

Nominations

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová

- “The Batman” – Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine

- “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – Camille Friend and Joel Harlow

- “Elvis” – Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti

- “The Whale” – Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Annemarie Bradley

Will Win

- “Elvis” – Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti

Should Win

- “The Whale” – Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Annemarie Bradley

 

This feels like a race between “Elvis” and “The Whale.” It seems like it should be obvious because the makeup on Brendan Fraser was half the reason why that performance worked so well. Unfortunately it feels like “Elvis” has enough steam to take away a few awards that I’m not so sure it really deserves? But I suppose I can’t get too mad at it for this one because they did a great job of transforming Austin Butler into Elvis. So sure. But again, watch out for the war movie. That was some great makeup work in that movie and in a split between “Elvis” and “The Whale,” this would be one surprise win that I personally wouldn’t be too terribly shocked at that not many seem to be expecting.

 

 

Film Editing

 

Nominations

- “The Banshees of Inisherin” – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen

- “Elvis” – Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond

- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Paul Rogers

- “Tár” – Monkia Willi

- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Eddie Hamilton

 

Will Win

- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Paul Rogers

 

Should Win

- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Paul Rogers

 

And it begins. I think it’s going to be a great night for “Everything Everywhere” and although this would be another category that makes sense for “Top Gun: Maverick” given how much reported aerial footage they went through to make the movie work. But I think that’s less apparent when you sit down and watch the movie. And if the Academy loves “Everything Everywhere” as much as I think they do, this seems like an obvious win that they’ll give it given that the bonkers multiverse stuff that happens in the movie has a lot of crazy editing work to give it the proper effect. And that is something you can see without having to know any behind the scenes work.

 

Costume Design

 

Nominations

- “Babylon” – Mary Zophres

- “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” – Ruth Carter

- “Elvis” – Catherine Martin

- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Shirley Kurata

- “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” – Jenny Beavan

Will Win

- “Elvis” – Catherine Martin

Should Win

- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Shirley Kurata

 

Again, I can’t be too angry at the idea of “Elvis” winning costume design. Making Austin Butler look like Elvis is one part makeup and hairstyling and the other part costume design. And I’m not getting a strong vibe on anything else in this category. But my personal pick is trickier. Obviously “Wakanda Forever” had some great costume work. But there was also a few outfits for some of our heroes that looked like Power Rangers or other cringy outfits, so I can’t go there. “Babylon” is tempting because there are a lot of great 20s outfits that make those scenes wild and fun, but one potentially overlooked part of “Everything Everywhere” is in the giant multiverse of it all, there’s a lot of different costumes that had to be figured out and tried on to give each of the variants of these characters their own look and feel, so that’s where I’m leaning towards personally.

 

Cinematography

 

Nominations

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – James Friend

- “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” – Darius Khondji

- “Elvis” – Mandy Walker

- “Empire of Light” – Roger Deakins

- “Tár” – Florian Hoffmeister

Will Win

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – James Friend

Should Win

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – James Friend

 

Why is “Top Gun: Maverick” not in this category? That was another one of the more odd choices for nominations this year. And it would be the obvious winner, too. Given that it’s not, I think it’s a somewhat easy prediction to give this to “All Quiet,” which, as you’ve noted, I think has potential to win a lot of these technical categories. Not to be lost in the shuffle, though, is the fact that a Mandy Walker win would make for the first female cinematography win in this category. I’m not sure of the cinematography in “Elvis” stands out as much as some of the other choices, but that would be a cool thing that happens. And Roger Deakins could theoretically snag a second win if you want a surprise choice. But the war movie just seems too strong to ignore, both in my prediction and my personal take.

 

Production Design

 

Nominations

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper

- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole

- “Babylon” – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino

- “Elvis” – Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn

- “The Fabelmans” – Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara

Will Win

- “Babylon” – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino

Should Win

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper

 

This is a tough category to consider. I think “Babylon” has been the front runner in this category and it makes sense given that the Academy often loves movies about movies. And even if “Babylon” was more divisive this year, making the movie look like old-time Hollywood is a solid trick to getting yourself a trophy, so that’s what I’m going to predict will happen. But again, the war movie. And in thinking of the war movie, that seems like the mildly more impressive feat in recreating World War I as opposed to the umpteenth time we’ve gone back to old Hollywood. I guess we’ve had plenty of war movies, too. But it still seems to be a tad bit more impressive to me. It’s a lot of work to put World War I on the screen. I’ve also heard mild buzz that this is a category that “Avatar” could sneak in a second win. I’m not sure I’d be on board with that. Sure, there are actual sets in that movie, but it seems more heavily weighted on the visual effects in that movie in compared to these other two.

 

Animated Feature Film

 

Nominations

- “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” – Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley (Netflix Animation)

- “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” – Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey (Cinereach)

- “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” – Joel Crawford and Mark Swift (DreamWorks Animation)

- “The Sea Beast” – Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger (Netflix Animation)

- “Turning Red” – Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins (Pixar)

Will Win

- “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” – Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley (Netflix Animation)

Should Win

- “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” – Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley (Netflix Animation)

 

Another easy category to predict. There’s a few categories that seem like they’re set in stone and this is one of them. Guillermo has been sweeping everything he’s up for without much of a conversation as to a potential contender. And for good reason. This was one of my top movies of the year. A movie that should’ve been in even more than just the animated category. At least give it a song nomination that it was getting elsewhere. Now “Puss in Boots” has been gaining a lot of momentum in a very natural way, being a movie that is also genuinely really good that perhaps no one was expecting to be. But I don’t think Guillermo is just way too far ahead for it to overtake it. In other years, maybe. But not when we have an animated classic up for the award.

 

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

 

Nominations

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell

- “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” – Rian Johnson

- “Living” – Kazuo Ishiguro

- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Snger, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig and Justin Marks

- “Women Talking” – Sarah Polley

Will Win

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell

Should Win

- “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” – Rian Johnson

 

And now we get into the bigger categories. Adapted screenplay is very interesting because, of the two writing categories, I feel it’s the weaker of the two this year. Also as I’ve referenced, I think it’s possible for “All Quiet” to sneak in and win a lot of these categories it’s up for. And if it happens, people might think we’re in for a potential upset in best picture. While I don’t think the latter is going to happen, I am going to make an official call here and predict it to win adapted screenplay instead of continuing to say it could happen, but not pulling the trigger. And I think the reasoning is that “Women Talking” feels pretty weak. Yes, the writing is fantastic. But the reaction to the movie was more middling than I was expecting and the box office was nearly non-existent. It snuck into picture, but it also got no acting nods, which seemed like it should’ve had at least two. So I’m not sure how much the Academy loves this movie. For my personal take, I was close to picking it. I’m not sure the screenplay of “All Quiet” was its best quality. Same thing for “Top Gun: Maverick,” although the story was really good. But Rian Johnson’s sequel to “Knives Out” was just as sharp as the first, pun intended. So that’s what I’d go for if I had a vote.

 

Writing (Original Screenplay)

 

Nominations

- “The Banshees of Inisherin” – Martin McDonagh

- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

- “The Fabelmans” – Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner

- “Tár” – Tod Field

- “Triangle of Sadness” – Ruben Östlund

Will Win

- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

Should Win

- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

 

I’ll spare you my soap box of how great “Everything Everywhere” is. But it was my easy top movie of the year and the writing is probably the best reason for that. The fact that such a crazy, bonkers multiverse movie works so well is an absolute miracle. Every little detail that you see all comes together and that’s a lot of brilliant work of writing to go along with the editing and the acting. If the screenplay doesn’t work, neither does the movie. And although there’s a lot of solid competition here with a lot of beloved movies, the “Everything Everywhere” train seems like it’s leaving Martin McDonagh, Steven Spielberg, and Tod Field completely in the dust, which is an incredible feat. It’s not taking advantage of a weak year. It’s steamrolling through a very competitive year.

 

Actress in a Supporting Role

 

Nominations

- Angela Bassett – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

- Hong Chau – “The Whale”

- Kerry Condon – “The Banshees of Inisherin”

- Jamie Lee Curtis – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

- Stephanie Hsu – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Will Win

- Jamie Lee Curtis – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Should Win

- Stephanie Hsu – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

 

This race has been very interesting to watch. It seemed like Angela Bassett was primed to run away with this early in the season. But when you look at everything she won, none of it was directly connected to Oscar voters. When Oscar voters chimed in via BAFTA and SAG, she lost. To two different competitors. But she still lost. And I think Angela Bassett is No. 3 in this category behind Jamie Lee Curtis and Kerry Condon. And I think the fact that Jamie Lee Curtis won SAG, the final big category before Oscar voting actually happened, might be what puts her over the top. I also remember being impressed on nomination morning at how much “Everything Everywhere” showed up, which included twice in this category. So that’s what makes me feel like taking Curtis for the win and following SAG. But the vote between Curtis, Condon, and Bassett is likely very close and I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the three ladies take it. Me personally, I would go the other lady in “Everything Everywhere.” If Stephanie Hsu’s name were to be called, I might jump up and scream in joy.

 

Actor in a Supporting Role

 

Nominations

- Brendan Gleeson – “The Banshees of Inisherin”

- Brian Tyree Henry – “Causeway”

- Judd Hirsch – “The Fabelmans”

- Barry Keoghan – “The Banshees of Inisherin”

- Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Will Win

- Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Should Win

- Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

 

Unlike the other three acting categories, there’s no drama here. The one hiccup in the season was Barry Keoghan winning at BAFTA, but Ke Huy Quan has won just about everything else, Oscar related or not, in this awards season. And I think the energy he exudes with each ensuing speech just makes him more likeable. I don’t see him losing this award. And that makes me happy because it’s the most deserving. Don’t you dare screw this up, Academy.

 

Actress in a Leading Role

 

Nominations

- Cate Blanchett – “Tár”

- Ana de Armas – “Blonde”

- Andrea Riseborough – “To Leslie”

- Michelle Williams – “The Fabelmans”

- Michelle Yeoh – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Will Win

- Michelle Yeoh – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Should Win

- Michelle Yeoh – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

 

Like the supporting actress category, the lead actress category also has had an interesting turn this awards season. Although it’s not a three-way race like in supporting, Cate Blanchett seemed like she was running away with this one early. And she did win in plenty of key races. Until the momentum seemed to shift to Michelle Yeoh. And the kicker here is that it seems like the biggest supporter of Michelle Yeoh is… Cate Blanchett. I personally wouldn’t be upset at either. Two great performances. But I would love to see Michelle Yeoh take this home. It would be another beautiful moment. And if Cate Blanchett also seems to want that to happen, I could see that being the deciding vote for Oscar voters who are a bit torn.

 

Actor in a Leading Role

 

Nominations

- Austin Butler – “Elvis”

- Colin Farrell – “The Banshees of Inisherin”

- Brendan Fraser – “The Whale”

- Paul Mescal – “Aftersun”

- Bill Nighy – “Living”

Will Win

- Brendan Fraser – “The Whale”

Should Win

- Brendan Fraser – “The Whale”

 

I’m excited for all the acting categories this year. Because supporting actor seems like the only one that’s locked up. Lead actor is another three horse race that seems to have narrowed down to a two horse race, with Collin Farrell being the one that seems to have been left out. And that’s a bit of a shame because he had such a great year. But I suppose we don’t give awards for the entire body of work, so it’s fair. The Brendan Fraser comeback story is what led things early on. That got a little bit murky when his actual film got mixed reaction, which led Colin Farrell and Austin Butler into the race. But people still liked Fraser’s performance, even if they didn’t like the film. And they REALLY liked his speeches when he did win, which has helped him stay in it. But when it comes to the most important precursors, Colin Farrell didn’t get any wins where he needed, so I think he fell out. Austin Butler won BAFTA, which is also what Anthony Hopkins won in his lead up to upsetting the late Chadwick Boseman two years ago, so BAFTA can’t be ignored. And Butler seems like the current favorite? And although I didn’t like “Elvis,” his performance was great, so I’m fine with that. It makes me feel like I’m going out on a bit of an edge in saying that it’ll come full circle to Fraser, but Fraser did win the SAG, thus making him the last one to give a speech before Oscar voting. And I do think the likeability factor will come into play and give him the win. And that’s where my personal pick is coming in as well. The performance is great. But I also really want to see him win because of his passion and humility.

 

Directing

 

Nominations

- Martin McDonagh – “The Banshees of Inisherin”

- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

- Steven Spielberg – “The Fabelmans”

- Todd Field – “Tár”

- Ruben Östlund – “Triangle of Sadness

Will Win

- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Should Win

- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

 

Unlike many of the other categories, this is a major category that seems like it’s wrapped. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, aka The Daniels, are coming in and raining on Spielberg’s parade. It seemed like Spielberg’s year. And Spielberg won at the Globes, which definitely don’t matter. But his speech there showed how much he cared about this project and this story of his life that he finally told. And that made me like “The Fabelmans” even more. Part of me does want to see Spielberg give his Oscar speech. I’d be fine with a director/picture split in that way. But The Daniels have left him in the dust. They’ve won everything they’ve needed to, while Spielberg seems to have been forgotten. And the movie didn’t perform that well, either, which was surprising. So while the Spielberg speech would be really neat to hear, with my favorite movie of the year being “Everything Everywhere,” I do think this will be a deserved win because there was so much to juggle with “Everything Everywhere” and they made it all work perfectly. Editing. Acting. Writing. All of it. It all comes down to the guys steering the ship and they were the perfect captains and have elevated themselves to legendary status. The real challenge will be to follow this up. What do they have up their sleeves next? The who world is excited to see.

 

Best Picture

 

Nominations

- “All Quiet on the Western Front” – Malte Grunert, Producer (Netflix)

- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers (20th Century Studios)

- “The Banshees of Inisherin” – Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers (Searchlight Pictures)

- “Elvis” – Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers (Warner Bros.)

- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers (A24)

- “The Fabelmans” – Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Speilberg and Tony Kushner, Producers (Universal)

- “Tár” – Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers (Focus Features)

- “Top Gun: Maverick” – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckhemer, Producers (Paramount)

- “Triangle of Sadness” – Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers (NEON)

- “Women Talking” – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers (United Artists Releasing)

 

Will Win

- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers (A24)

Should Win

- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers (A24)

 

Of course I want “Everything Everywhere” to win. If you didn’t know that by now, this post has definitely made that clear. It’s my top movie of 2022. In years past I talk about my curse with my favorite movie not winning best picture in the years I’ve been following the Oscars. And while the superstition in me wants to go out on a limb and pick something else so as to not curse myself, the crazy thing is that there’s not a good option. Almost every year it ends up boiling down to a two movie race that becomes hard to predict with the preferential ballot, but there is no contender. “Everything Everywhere” has steamrolled through the entire season, especially in key precursors that actually matter. So instead of trying to debate on how it’s possible for another movie to take the win, let me just reflect on this crazy journey that we’ve had. This movie premiered a year ago. And not in my wildest dreams did I think a movie this weird and this different would actually break through. Best case scenario, maybe it sneaks in and gets a screenplay nod and perhaps one acting nod. But now not only has it successfully broken through, it’s looking like perhaps the biggest Oscar juggernaut since “Return of the King.” And that feels me with so much joy. If you haven’t seen it for some reason, believe the hype and jump on the train. This movie is special and it deserves to have the special night that it’s about to have.

Movie Preview: March 2023

We made it through the first two months of the year. And even though it was cold and snowy throughout much of the United States, the box office output wasn’t terrible. As previously mentioned, “Avatar: The Way of Water” propelled itself to being the third highest grossing movie worldwide, helping bolster an otherwise mostly nonexistent January in regards to new releases. And February was helped by “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” becoming the fifth straight movie in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to open north of $100 million. Sure, the extremely mixed reaction resulted in a record second weekend drop for the MCU, but it still made for a decent month overall, even though not much from the rest of the slate really stood out. “Cocaine Bear,” “Jesus Revolution,” and “80 for Brady” had good performances compared to expectations, while “Knock at the Cabin” and “Magic Mike’s Last Dance” were the exact opposite. But outside “Quatumania” opening to $106 million, the next highest was “Cocaine Bear” with $23 million.

March, on the other hand, should look to catch things on fire, or at least start to warm things up a bit more. Whether or not there’s a $100 million opening weekend is up for debate. Perhaps not? But it’s certainly looking like an early summer month with the releases that are scheduled, which, outside COVID, has recently been the case with March, so let’s dive in and see what there is to look forward to!

As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of boxofficepro.com and the-numbers.com. The movies listed are the ones currently scheduled for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are subject to change. 

March 3 – 5

Metro-Goldwyn-Mayor's "Creed III"

The first weekend of March will start things off with a bang. Or maybe a punch? Or a knockout? Whatever boxing metaphor you choose to use, it’s Creed III that leads us off. What started off as a spin-off to the Rocky franchise is now surviving well as a franchise on its very own, which parallels the story arc of Michael B. Jordan’s Adonis Creed in the initial “Creed,” as he was trying to make it on his own rather than feeding off the legacy of being the son of Apollo Creed. This will also be the first movie in the franchise that doesn’t include the character of Rocky Balboa as Sylvester Stallone has fully passed the mantle of the franchise to Michael B. Jordan. This will also be Jordan’s first time directing a movie in this franchise as he follows in the footsteps of Stallone in that way, too, as Stallone directed the second through fourth Rocky films as well as “Rocky Balboa.” In fact, this is Jordan’s first time directing anything and so far he’s received positive remarks for his directorial debut. “Creed” opened to $29.6 million in November 2015 and was followed by a $35.6 million debut from “Creed II” in November 2018. Now “Creed III” strays away from the November release and into March, negating the direct comparison to a degree, but nevertheless its projected to improve upon its predecessor yet again as Box Office Pro has it pegged at $43 million in their weekend forecast.

Fighting for a spot somewhere in the top five amidst the competition from “Creed III” as well as holdovers from “Quantumania,” “Cocaine Bear” and “Jesus Revolution” will be the anime Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village. “Demon Slayer” is a breakout success as an anime. A 26-episode first season aired in 2019, adapting the manga, which began in 2016. That was followed by “Demon Slayer the Movie: Mugen Train” in 2020, which became the highest grossing film ever in Japan. After a staggered worldwide release, “Mugen Train” opened in April 2021 in the United States with $22.8 million, a number which definitely indicates potential breakout for “To the Swordsmith Village. “Mugen Train” was edited into six episodes, with one new episode preceding it, and was followed by a new 11-episode arc, which made the total 18-episode season 2. “To the Swordsmith Village” will be kicking off the third season of the show, which is set to premier in April, so there’s sure to be a decent amount of hype for this movie, which could lead it to a second place finish if all goes well.

Perhaps on the outside looking in will be the is Guy Ritchie’s new film Operation Fortune: Ruse de Geurre. Guy Ritchie is a director who developed an early niche following as an action filmmaker due to films like “Snatch” and “Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels.” Since then he’s also gone bigger, directing both of the Robert Downey Jr. “Sherlock Holmes” movies and later being swept up by the Disney machine to direct the live-action remake of “Aladdin.” Mixed in with that success, though, has been a decent amount of misses, specifically with his last two films, “The Gentlemen” and “Wrath of Man,” both of which were seen more as generic action films rather than having his specific style, leading to subpar box office performances, opening to $10.7 million and $8.3 million, respectfully. “Operation Furtune” has also had a bit of a journey as it was initially scheduled for early last year before STX removed it, reportedly due to poor timing of having Ukrainian villains at the same time as the Russian/Ukrainian conflict. Rumor also has it that the movie almost went straight to streaming, but was recently bought by Lionsgate, who is giving it a theatrical release. Reaction has also been mixed, so all things considered, the expectation is for it to open even further below the previous two movies.   

March 10 – 12

Paramount's "Scream VI"

Another franchise film will be leading the box office each of the next three weekends in March, with this second weekend being led by the horror film Scream VI. Despite the potentially confusing numbering scheming in this franchise, “Scream VI” is in fact a sequel to last year’s entry, simply titled “Scream,” as it walked in the footsteps of the Halloween franchise by having a reboot/sequel that had the same title as the original. Instead of being super confusing by going for “Scream 2” or a subtitled sequel, this entry simply goes back to “Scream VI” as the sixth entry in the franchise, which began in 1996 as a meta horror/comedy by Wes Craven that at the same time also managed to be a successfully intense and thrilling entry into the genre it was providing horror commentary on. Fast forward nearly 30 years later and last year’s “Scream” was a surprisingly well-received entry that also opened to $30 million. And you know the rules of horror franchises. When you make back your budget in just one weekend, you continue as soon as possible. So with a very quick turnaround, the Ghostface killer is back just a year later and the marketing has people hyped. And although not a perfect comparison due to ticket price inflation, the unadjusted record opening for the franchise is “Scream 3,” which opened to $34.7 million in 2000. “Scream VI” has a solid chance of topping that unadjusted record.

While the Ghostface killer will be out terrorizing people, dinosaurs will also be wandering the Earth in the new Adam Driver led sci-fi film 65. No, this is not like “Jurassic Park” with dinosaurs in today’s world, but rather sees Adam Driver traveling back in time into the world of the dinosaurs, with his only human companion being a young girl. The goal, obviously, is to survive this dangerous, prehistoric world, while assumingly trying to figure out a way to get back home. Driver has become one of today’s biggest stars, not just from his role as Kylo Ren in the new Star Wars trilogy, but also a decent resume of more prestigious awards films that has helped build his resume. He makes for a decent draw. But of course the draw will also be the dinosaurs as the Jurassic Park and Jurassic World movies will witness. In fact, it’s probably been a while since we’ve had on-screen dinosaurs not from a Jurassic movie, so this will be an interesting test. The other challenge for the movie will be a very crowded, very male-centric month at the box office and original films have more of an uphill battle than franchise films, but this definitely has the potential to be a sleeper hit, or at the very release provide another option for filmgoers.  

Coming in the rear this weekend will be Focus Features releasing the sports drama Champions. Again, competing with dinosaurs, Creed, and the upcoming superhero film and John Wick movie this month makes it difficult for a sports drama to succeed in the middle of that, especially with a mildly generic movie title. But nevertheless, this movie sees Woody Harrelson star as a former minor league basketball coach who is ordered by the court to coach a team of players with intellectual disabilities. And with that premise, one can see the danger of this walking right down a generic path of a sports movie that people have seen a thousand times. Granted, there are only so many directions one can take a sports movie, but nevertheless an element of creativity in the writing or proper execution of the familiar premise would be necessary for this to succeed, thus meaning reviews and reaction might be key to this movie’s success rather than just feeding off of star power or franchise recognition that a lot of these other movies will be relying on. A potential comparison could be to the Ben Affleck basketball movie “The Way Back,” which had the unfortunate timing of opening a week or two before COVID hit in March 2020. But nevertheless it still managed $8.2 million in its opening weekend before the world shut down.  

March 17 – 19

Warner Bros.' "Shazam! Fury of the Gods"

No slowing down this month as the third weekend of the month sees the opening of Shazam! Fury of the Gods. This will be the first of, yes, four DC films this year, the other three being “The Flash” (June), “Blue Beetle” (August), and “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (December). It’ll be a very interesting test for all four movies as James Gunn recently took over as head of DC and laid out a very specific plan for the studio’s future. Whether or not any of these characters is a part of that plan is up in the air and may depend on how well they do with fans. The uncertainty of these characters’ futures may in turn cause a bit of hesitation among more casual audiences. That added to the fact that the first “Shazam!” wasn’t necessarily a smash hit, either, provides an even more difficult uphill battle for “Fury of the Gods.” The positive, though, is that “Shazam!” played very well with the people who did see it, which may have helped give it a life beyond its initial theatrical release. Warner Bros. was confident enough to give it a sequel and said sequel will see Billy Batson and his entire family fight as a superhero team for the entirety of a whole film instead of just in the final act, with the conflict being the Daughters of Atlas, played by Helen Mirren and Lucy Liu. The first movie opened to $53.5 million and I’m sure the team around this hope for an improvement on that. Director David F. Sandberg tweeted recently that he’s been told nothing in the Shazam! films contradict the future plans for DC, so whether or not they play a role in the future will depend on if people show up for this film.

There’s not really any direct competition for “Fury of the Gods” on this specific weekend. The competition will be what is surrounding it in the weeks before and after release. But nevertheless there are two smaller films scheduled and the first is Moving On, a film starring Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin as two old friends who reconnect at a funeral and decide to get revenge on the widower who messed with them decades before. In addition to that strong duo as the leads, the movie is directed by Paul Weitz, who has previously directed movies such as “American Pie,” “About a Boy” and “Little Fockers,” so there’s some prestige there. But since “Little Fockers” in 2010, he’s only directed one movie that opened in wide release and that was back in 2013, so he’s been fairly quiet since and it doesn’t seem like there’s much awareness on this one, so this might be a moderate to smaller release instead of a super wide.

And speaking of movies that may not have much awareness, the-numbers.com claims that A Snowy Day in Oakland is releasing in wide release this weekend, so I’ll quickly bring it up, but there’s not many other indications on the internet that this is much of thing as I can’t even find a trailer that has even more than 5.7K views. Nevertheless, this is comedy about a girl who works as a psychologist who breaks up with her boyfriend and moves from San Francisco to Oakland, in a predominately black neighborhood. Given that this is also from a new studio called PoC Studios, my guess is that this will be in a few hundred theaters rather than a few thousand. 

March 24 – 26

Lionsgate's "John Wick: Chapter 4"

Only one new movie this weekend, but there’s a world in which this may be the top release of the month and that is Keanu Reeves returning for John Wick: Chapter 4. What initially began as a simple, low-budget, low-key action film in October 2014 has quickly grown to what may be one of the most popular action franchises today. Yes, “John Wick” came out of nowhere and only opened to $14.4 million on a $30 million budget, but it’s very stylistic action and strong word of mouth grew quick and that led to two much larger sequels in terms of the world itself, which has gotten bigger with each subsequent movie, and the overall success, which culminated with “Chapter 3” opening to $56.8 million and making $171 million domestically, with $327 million total worldwide. Not bad at all for a $40 million budget. Now eventually franchise trends in general suggest diminishing returns at some point and the previous movie set a pretty high bar, but there still seems to be plenty of hype for this movie, especially since “Chapter 3” ended in a way that left the gate wide open for a sequel rather than this feeling like a forced entry. Again, lots of competition this month. But this might be the competition that hurts the other films rather than the other way around, so I’m guessing this does quite well. 

March 31 – April 2

Paramount's "Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves"

The final major movie of the month is not one that’s going to impact the calendar gross of March very much, opening on the final day of the month, but nevertheless that movie is Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves. Starring Chris Pine, Michelle Rodriguez, Regé-Jean Page, Justice Smith, Sophia Lillis, and Hugh Grant, this is looking to be a big budget, CGI monster fest fest that attempts to bring to life the world of Dungeons & Dragons in a big summer blockbuster style popcorn movie. And honestly this could be the type of movie that ends up getting a 30 percent critics score on Rotten Tomatoes, paired along with an 80 percent audience score. Based on trailers, it looks like the filmmakers here are at least aware of the lore of Dungeons & Dragons, in an attempt to bring specific niche creatures and characters into the movie that might please the niche D&D audience, while completely bouncing off others who have never explored the worlds of D&D and thus don’t get the excitement of what’s happening. Said phenomenon might be similar to the 2016 “Warcraft” film, which has almost that exact divisive Rotten Tomatoes score. Also like “Warcraft,” this movie has the chance to randomly explode in some international markets, even if it doesn’t do well domestically. “Warcraft” opened to $24.2 million domestically, then fell off a cliff and only made $47.4 million total domestically, but made a whopping $213 million in China and $391 million total internationally, for a $438 million total worldwide.

Opening alongside “Dungeons & Dragons” are two smaller films, the first being Zach Braff’s new film A Good Person. Zach Braff is the director of “Garden State,” “Wish I Was Here” and “Going in Style.” His latest is a movie starring Florence Pugh as a girl whose life falls apart after being involved in a fatal accident. By the looks of the trailer, it appears this character will have some lessons to learn about life from Morgan Freeman, which perhaps would benefit anyone. Not that it’s relevant, but director Zach Braff dated star Florence Pugh from 2019 to 2022. Braff wrote “A Good Person” during COVID and it appears the movie was filmed in late 2021, before the couple broke up in early 2022. Just in case you wanted your daily dose of celebrity relationship gossip.

The other smaller film of the month is the Sundance film A Thousand and One. This is a movie directed by new filmmaker A.V. Rockwell in her feature-length debut and stars Teyana Taylor, also fairly new to the acting scene, as a woman who kidnaps her son from foster care and sets out with her son to reclaim their sense of home, identity, and stability in a rapidly changing New York City. The hook for this film is that it won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance this year, which is the top prize at Sundance. In the last decade, other Grand Jury winners include Whiplash, Minari, and CODA, all of whom went onto get nominated for best picture, CODA winning the prize a year ago. Sure, it’s very hit and miss otherwise when it comes to Sundance winners going onto being Oscar players, but Oscars or no, it’s typically a sign of a really good indie film that people liked that is worth checking out. “A Thousand and One” currently has a 100 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes after its first 24 reviews, with a 7.7 average score from said critics. So if you’re looking for a smaller indie film as a change of pace from these bigger blockbusters that the month will provide, this might be a solid option.

Movie Preview: February 2023

We are finished with the month of January. The previous year has been reviewed. This upcoming year has been previewed. If you haven’t seen those two posts, then check them out! But with that out of the way, it’s time to do a closer look into the month that we are currently in – February 2023.

And actually, it’s looking to be a fairly healthy month at the box office. January started off the year in a decent fashion, thanks mostly to the holdovers. “Avatar: The Way of Water” remained at No. 1 for the entire month and crossed the $2 billion mark worldwide box office, while inching closer to the $718.7 million mark of “Top Gun: Maverick” domestically, the current highest grossing movie of 2022 in the United States. Meanwhile, “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” quietly had a great month as well, becoming the leggiest wide release of 2022. And on the 2023 front, “M3GAN” was the story of the new releases, opening to $30.4 million and being close to the $100 million mark domestically, while already having passed $150 million worldwide. And we’re your production budget is just $12 million, that’s going to make the studio very happy.

While January mostly played the holdover game, February provides moviegoers with a wide variety of options that should help build positive momentum on the year going into a March that is looking rather stacked. So let’s jump in and take a look at what the month has in store! As always, release date information for this post is courtesy of boxofficepro.com and the-numbers.com. The movies listed are the ones currently scheduled for a wide release in the United States and Canada and are subject to change.

February 3 – 5

Universal's "Knock at the Cabin"

After seven straight weeks at No. 1, “Avatar: The Way of Water” was finally dethroned this past weekend at the hands of the latest M. Night Shyamalan film, Knock at the Cabin. Although the victory here was a bit unceremonious as the movie wound up being the lowest opening for any Shyamalan film with just $14.1 million. Shyamalan’s previous low was… the one right before this, 2021’s “Old” with $16.8 million. This downward trajectory is perhaps a sign that Shyamalan’s drawing power at the box office is diminishing, which is most likely directly correlated with mixed reaction to his films. If you make a movie people like, people will show up. If you continue to make movies that get mixed at best reaction, people are going to be less inclined to show up, especially in a post-COVID era. The movie itself sees David Bautista leading a small group of people that show up to a family’s door at a cabin providing them with an ultimatum: sacrifice one in your family or allow the entire world’s population to slowly die in the Apocalypse. Despite the low opening, the reviews on the movie actually leaned positive with a Rotten Tomatoes score that hovered around 70 percent all weekend. But perhaps that wasn’t high enough to get casual audiences excited enough to go out and see the movie.

Rolling in just behind “Knock at the Cabin” in second place with $12.7 million was the adult-targeted comedy 80 for Brady, which thus knocked “The Way of Water” down to third place this weekend. “80 for Brady” was specifically targeting an older female audience as it’s about a group of older females traveling to the Super Bowl to finally see their hero Tom Brady. Coincidentally, Tom Brady in real life, who did not make it to the Super Bowl this season, announced his retirement just days before this movie was released. Despite retiring last season before coming back, Brady claims this is for real this time. Another interesting point surrounding this movie is that, according to a Deadline report, “80 for Brady” actually sold more tickets this weekend than “Knock at the Cabin” as Paramount held discount matinee ticket pricing all day for most theaters nationwide. The average ticket price was $9.79 compared to $12.30 for “Knock at the Cabin.” Whether or not this strategy worked can be debated. On the one hand, it did not beat “Knock at the Cabin,” despite selling more tickets. But on the other hand, perhaps more people came out to see it that otherwise wouldn’t have? The report also noted that 47 percent of the opening weekend audience were over the age of 55, while 69 percent were female. This demographic is also not known for rushing out to the theaters, so there’s a solid chance that the movie enjoys good holds throughout February.

On the… non-movie related box office news from the weekend, two special events made a decent impact. Opening in fifth place with an estimated $5.1 million was BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas, which was a theatrical showcase of the group’s free show at Busan’s World Expo in October. A bit further down the chart in ninth place was the season 3 finale of The Chosen, taking in $3.6 million. While this opening is lower than the $8.7 million that the first two episodes of season 3 opened to this past November and the $4.2 million that the 2021 holiday special opened to, it’s still nevertheless impressive that it managed to make that much despite being available for free just a few days later. And the total certainly continues to help fund further seasons of “The Chosen.”

February 10 – 12

Warner Bros.' "Magic Mike’s Last Dance"

*Moving from past to future, the second weekend of February has the Super Bowl, which is traditionally a harder weekend to open movies on, given that you either have to settle with a 2-day weekend or directly counterprogram by being a movie that targets people that don’t care for football. And that’s part of the reason why the biggest Super Bowl opening remains the 2008 film “Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour” with $31.1 million. On that particular weekend in history, perhaps the overlap of Hannah Montana fans and football fans watching the Super Bowl weren’t very large.

In which case, it might work out nicely that this weekend’s Super Bowl challenger is Magic Mike’s Last Dance, which is another movie that is perhaps primarily targeting a female audience. That said, there’s a fairly large number of people in critics circles that found both Magic Mike movies to be surprisingly well-done, despite being a male stripper movie, so maybe the movie might not be targeting a female audience as much as one might think? While not a perfect box office comparison given that the previous Magic Mike movies both opened in the summer, the first movie nevertheless opened to $39.1 million. An opening on that front would be a new Super Bowl record. However, the sequel “Magic Mike XXL” opened to a much smaller $12.8 million. It’s also worth noting that “XXL” opened on a Wednesday, over the fourth of July holiday weekend. Its five-day opening was $27.8 million. If diminished returns are continued to be expected, perhaps a $15-20 million is what the movie is looking at.

The other major headline from this weekend is not a new release by any stretch of the imagination, but is rather the 25th Anniversary re-release of Titanic. Interestingly enough, we have a bit of a James Cameron duel going on over at the all-time charts. As of the typing of this post, “Titanic” is third all-time worldwide with $2.194 billion, while “Avatar: The Way of Water” is fourth with $2.176 billion. While “The Way of Water” is just $20 million behind “Titanic” and is poised to pass it for third place, “Titanic” will get the chance to retake that third spot right back. This is also not the first time “Titanic” has seen a domestic re-release. In April 2012 it got the 3D re-release treatment, where it opened to $17.2 million. On the James Cameron front, the re-release of “Avatar” last year in preparation for “The Way of Water” saw “Avatar” open with $10.5 million. Somewhere along those lines might be the expectations for this weekend’s “Titanic” re-release.

The final movie of the weekend is not one that I have a whole ton of faith in with regards to the box office, but nevertheless opening somewhere on the charts will be the horror movie Consecration. This is a movie starring Jena Malone as a doctor named Grace who travels to Scotland after the alleged suicide of her priest brother. Not believing the church’s account of what happened, she’s on a mission to discover what really happened. A recent comparison that “Consecration” reminds me of is last month’s “Fear” that I briefly talked about, which opened on the final weekend of January down in 12th place with just $1.2 million from 974 theaters. It seems like “Consecration” is in line for a debut somewhere along those lines.

*UPDATE: I typed this weekend’s segment a week ago. Before finishing this post, a personal matter delayed me and finishing this blog post became low on my priority list. I made the decision to keep what I wrote instead of re-typing it. I also wasn’t too far off with this weekend’s movies. “Magic Mike’s Last Dance” opened in first, but with only $8.2 million. What I didn’t account for there is Warner Bros. barely promoting the movie and only releasing it in 1,500 theaters, which seems like a bit of a strange decision. Meanwhile, “Titanic” returned with $6.4 million in its 25th anniversary release while “Consecration” barely registered, opening below the top 10 with just $365,000.

February 17 – 19

Marvel's "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania"

UPDATE: This weekend’s segment was continued on Sunday, February 12. Super Bowl Sunday. Carry on with your reading…

Onto this month’s main event film, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, the third movie in the Ant-Man trilogy. There are some comic book fans that have marveled at the idea that Ant-Man has now gotten a trilogy before other comic book characters that may seem like they would’ve done so first, but one of course has to realize that this is the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Labeling it as the 31st film in this MCU saga might be a more accurate label. Even though Ant-Man hasn’t been the biggest headlining character throughout the MCU, the specific realm that he and his comrades deal with look to be a key factor in the future of the MCU, namely their adventures in the Quantum Realm. Also, as introduced in the TV series “Loki,” this next chapter’s big baddie, Kang the Conqueror, will make his official cinematic debut. In “Loki,” Kang was simply known as “He Who Remains,” but Marvel fans will begin to learn more about his shenanigans here in “Quantumania,” before things assumedly culminate in “Avengers: The Kang Dynasty,” set for a release in 2025. IMDb also has him listed as a cast member in the following year’s “Avengers: Secret Wars” in 2026, so perhaps his story will cover both Avengers movies, like Thanos’s final arc did in “Infinity War” and “Endgame.”

On the box office side of things, the first “Ant-Man” was one of the lowest MCU openings with $57.2 million, but built off positive word of mouth to becoming one of the MCU’s leggier runs as it finished with $180.2 million domestically, 3.15 times its opening. “Ant-Man and the Wasp” in 2018 opened slightly higher with $75.8 million and then had a more average run in terms of legs, making 2.86 million times its opening, finishing with $216.6 million. In looking at last year’s three MCU films, “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” opened with $187.4 million, “Thor: Love and Thunder” opened to $144.2 million, and “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” opened with $181.3 million. Again, Ant-Man isn’t as high profile of a character as any of those three, but as the official beginning of Phase 5 in the MCU, as well as the presence of Kang, it should be the highest Ant-Man opening. Box Office Pro’s current long range forecast has it pegged as opening between $101-125 million.

Much, much further down the list on the box office this weekend will be the latest Liam Neeson adventure, Marlowe. Ever since the release of “Taken” in 2009, Liam Neeson has seemed to enjoy acting as an action star and even more recently has seemed content with starring in a long string of low-budget action films that barely register at the box office. Since 2020, he’s had “Honest Thief,” “The Marksman,” “Blacklight” and “Memory,” all of which have finished with a domestic total below $20 million, the last two finishing below $10 million. The respective opening weekends have been $3.6 million, $3.1 million, $3.5 million, and $3.1 million, in other words, they’ve been highly consistent in their performance and yet they’re still being released. Now in the defense of “Marlowe,” it’s set in the 1930s and has the look of a neo-noir detective thriller and is directed by Neil Jordan, who is an Oscar winner in 1992 for his screenplay of “The Crying Game.” So that could give one optimism that this is more than just another generic Liam Neeson action film. But then one watches the trailer and says, “Well, maybe not.” And early tracking has it right in line with the previous four mentioned here. It’s also opening on Wednesday the 15th, so that might spread its opening out a bit.

That’s actually it for wide openings on the weekend. Although there are a couple more worth mentioning real quick. Also opening on the 15th, listed as a Fathom Events special engagement, is Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey. This one is a curiously amusing case of Winnie the Pooh becoming public domain the other year and someone immediately taking advantage of that by turning it into a live-action, bonkers, violent horror movie. Christopher Robin has left his toys and come back years later, learning that they’re very mad at him and are out for revenge. So yeah, not exactly the Winnie the Pooh movie one would expect, but the type of strange thing that can happen when a property becomes public domain. But perhaps the fact that it’s a special engagement and not a traditional wide release is evidence of the filmmakers or people in charge of distribution seeing the writing on the wall and not being confident enough to book enough theaters for a wide release?

For those who read the January post, you might remember me talking about an “Untitled Crunchyroll” film that was on the schedule. That wound up being “That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime: Scarlet Bond.” Unlike other surprising Crunchyroll or other anime releases, it did not open high, but rather opened in 8th place with a reported $1.5 million. I mentioned in that post that there was another “Untitled Crunchyroll” in February. Now that this post has been delayed long enough to get closer to the actual release, this one is Kaguya-sama: Love is War – The Kiss That Never Happened. This appears to be a continuation of the series “Kaguya-sama: Love is War,” which started in 2019 and currently has three seasons released – 39 episodes. It’s also listed as a “special engagement” and not a wide release. On Valentine’s Day, for that matter. So it’s not looking like another breakout anime hit, but will definitely be something for fans of the series to check out, either now or later.

February 24 – 26

Universal's "Cocaine Bear"

The final weekend of February will mostly look to be studios avoiding the second weekend of “Quantumania” before a wild March begins at the box office, but nevertheless a bit of a viral sensation on the internet will enter theaters, that being Cocaine Bear. It’s a movie that’s advertised as being “inspired by true events,” but that’s probably heavily emphasizing the “inspired” rather than the “true.” In 1985, an American black bear died after ingesting a whole duffel bag full of cocaine. That story is true and the bear is apparently on display at the Kentucky for Kentucky Fun Mall in Lexington, Kentucky. The idea of said bear turning into this crazy, invincible, apex predator that went on a massive killing streak is more likely movie imagination, but it nevertheless might make for a fun B-movie style of self-aware action film. I am reminded of 2019’s “Crawl” about killer alligators in a crazy hurricane or last year’s “Beast” with Idris Elba fighting a killer lion. Those movies opened to $12.0 million and $11.6 million, respectively. Whether or not internet virility can take “Cocaine Bear” higher than that is yet to be seen, but that would nevertheless be a respectable mark.

From crazy bears to Christian movies this weekend, the other notable release is Jesus Revolution. This is a Christian movie set in the 1970s about a pastor who decides to let a bunch of hippies join his congregation, which may have made some of the older people not too happy, but sent a message that everyone is allowed to worship, even if they don't look or act the same as others. As a whole, this highlights the great American spiritual awakening in the 1970s as it adapts Greg Laurie's book of the same name, which highlighted his experiences in that era. As a 19-year-old in 1973, Laurie was allowed to lead a Bible study of about 30 people from pastor Chuck Smith, which eventually grew to be one of the biggest congregations in the United States. The movie is directed by Jon Erwin and Brent McCorkle, who worked on the 2018 hit "I Can Only Imagine," which opened with $17.1 million, so this definitely has potential if it hits the right niche audience. Other movies directed by Erwin, like "American Underdog," "I Still Believe," and "Woodlawn," opened more in the $5-10 million range. 

The final movie of the weekend and the month is another one of those movies that may or may not actually exist. Or may be a smaller release than the initial schedule makes it out to be, but nevertheless the movie is My Happy Ending. From the official trailer, released February 2nd and currently having 6,311 views, Roadside describes this as a movie about a famous actor who goes incognito to find treatment for a severe medical issue, stage 4 cancer I believe, finding three friends along the way to help her - an aging rocker, a young mother, and a retired school teacher. The movie stars Andie MacDowell in the lead role. Could be a nice drama that serves as a change of pace. But Roadside is going to have start advertising their movie if they want people to see it. Otherwise it's a candidate for most people to find later, after its theatrical run.